• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.191-201
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• 2024

A comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out in Istanbul to examine the seismotectonic features of the region. The results showed that earthquakes can trigger one another, resulting in the grouping of earthquakes in both time and space. The hazard analysis utilized the Poisson model and a conventional integration technique to generate the hazard curve, which shows the likelihood of ground motion surpassing specific values over a given period. Additionally, the study evaluated the impact of seismic hazard on the structural integrity of an existing masonry tower by simulating its seismic response under different ground motion intensities. The study's results emphasize the importance of considering the seismotectonic characteristics of an area when assessing seismic hazard and the structural performance of buildings in seismic-prone regions.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.337-343
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• 2020

In the present study, by employing fragility analysis, the seismic vulnerability of a concrete girder bridge, one of the most common existing structural bridge systems, has been performed. To this end, drift demand model as a fundamental ingredient of any probabilistic decision-making analyses is initially developed in terms of the two most common intensity measures, i.e., PGA and Sa (T₁). Developing a probabilistic demand model requires a reliable database that is established in this paper by performing incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) under a set of 20 ground motion records. Next, by employing Bayesian statistical inference drift demand models are developed based on pre-collapse data obtained from IDA. Then, the accuracy and reasonability of the developed models are investigated by plotting diagnosis graphs. This graphical analysis demonstrates probabilistic demand model developed in terms of PGA is more reliable. Afterward, fragility curves according to PGA based-demand model are developed.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2004.11b
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• pp.297-300
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• 2004

This paper proposes a method for choosing the best composite power system expansion plan considering probabilistic reliability criterion. The proposed method was modeled as the minimization of the investment budget (economics) for constructing new transmission lines subject to not only deterministic(demand constraint) but also probabilistic reliability criterion(LOLE) with considering the uncertainties of the system elements. This is achieved by modeling the power system expansion problem as an integer programming one. The method solves for the optimal strategy using a probabilistic theory based branch and bound method that utilizes a network flow approach and the maximum flow-minimum cut set theorem. Although the proposed method is applied to a simple sample study, the test results demonstrate a fact that the proposed method is suitable for solving the power system expansion planning problem subject to practical uncertainties for future.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.2 no.5
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• pp.345-366
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• 2005

This work presents an assessment of the computational performance of a vector-parallel implementation of probabilistic model for concrete cracking in 3D. This paper shows the continuing efforts towards code optimization as reported in earlier works Paz, et al. (2002a,b and 2003). The probabilistic crack approach is based on the direct Monte Carlo method. Cracking is accounted by means of 3D interface elements. This approach considers that all nonlinearities are restricted to interface elements modeling cracks. The heterogeneity governs the overall cracking behavior and related size effects on concrete fracture. Computational kernels in the implementation are the inexact Newton iterative driver to solve the non-linear problem and a preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) driver to solve linearized equations, using an element by element (EBE) strategy to compute matrix-vector products. In particular the paper analyzes code behavior using OpenMP directives in parallel vector processors (PVP), such as the CRAY SV1 and CRAY T94. The impact of the memory architecture on code performance, and also some strategies devised to circumvent this issue are addressed by numerical experiment.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.63 no.6
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• pp.809-824
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• 2017

The accurate evaluation of wind characteristics and wind-induced structural responses during a typhoon is of significant importance for bridge design and safety assessment. This paper presents an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm-based angular-linear approach for probabilistic modeling of field-measured wind characteristics. The proposed method has been applied to model the wind speed and direction data during typhoons recorded by the structural health monitoring (SHM) system instrumented on the arch Jiubao Bridge located in Hangzhou, China. In the summer of 2015, three typhoons, i.e., Typhoon Chan-hom, Typhoon Soudelor and Typhoon Goni, made landfall in the east of China and then struck the Jiubao Bridge. By analyzing the wind monitoring data such as the wind speed and direction measured by three anemometers during typhoons, the wind characteristics during typhoons are derived, including the average wind speed and direction, turbulence intensity, gust factor, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density (PSD). An EM algorithm-based angular-linear modeling approach is proposed for modeling the joint distribution of the wind speed and direction. For the marginal distribution of the wind speed, the finite mixture of two-parameter Weibull distribution is employed, and the finite mixture of von Mises distribution is used to represent the wind direction. The parameters of each distribution model are estimated by use of the EM algorithm, and the optimal model is determined by the values of $R^2$ statistic and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The results indicate that the stochastic properties of the wind field around the bridge site during typhoons are effectively characterized by the proposed EM algorithm-based angular-linear modeling approach. The formulated joint distribution of the wind speed and direction can serve as a solid foundation for the purpose of accurately evaluating the typhoon-induced fatigue damage of long-span bridges.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.325-343
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• 2005

Chloride ingress is a common cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete located in coastal zone. Modeling the chloride ingress is an important basis for designing reinforced concrete structures and for assessing the reliability of an existing structure. The modeling is also needed for predicting the deterioration of a reinforced structure. The existing deterministic solution for prediction model of corrosion initiation cannot reflect uncertainties which input variables have. This paper presents an approach to the fuzzy arithmetic based modeling of the chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcement in concrete structures that takes into account the uncertainties in the physical models of chloride penetration into concrete and corrosion of steel reinforcement, as well as the uncertainties in the governing parameters, including concrete diffusivity, concrete cover depth, surface chloride concentration and critical chloride level for corrosion initiation. There are a lot of prediction model for predicting the time of reinforcement corrosion of structures exposed to chloride-induced corrosion environment. In this work, RILEM model formula and Crank's solution of Fick's second law of diffusion is used. The parameters of the models are regarded as fuzzy numbers with proper membership function adapted to statistical data of the governing parameters instead of random variables of probabilistic modeling of Monte Carlo Simulation and the fuzziness of the time to corrosion initiation is determined by the fuzzy arithmetic of interval arithmetic and extension principle. An analysis is implemented by comparing deterministic calculation with fuzzy arithmetic for above two prediction models.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2001.10b
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• pp.169-171
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• 2001

이 논문에서 논해지는 음성변환이라는 것은 어떤 화자의 음성(소스)을 다른 화자의 음성(타겟)으로 바꾸는 것이다. 이 때, 모든 음소들을 녹음해서 데이터베이스화한 음성끼리 매칭시키는 것이 아니라, 몇 번의 학습을 통하여 음색의 특징을 파악한 후 나온 변환함수를 이용하여 원래 화자의 음성을 타겟 음성으로 변환하는 시스템을 제안하고자 한다. 여기서, 음색의 특징들을 추출한 후, 변환함수를 만들기 위한 트레이닝을 위한 방법으로 Gaussian Mixture Modeling을 이용할 것이다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.437-450
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• 2020

This study presents a probabilistic distributed hydrological model for Ephemeral catchment, where zero flow often occurs due to the influence of distinct climate characteristics in South Korea. The gridded hydrological model is developed by combining the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA) runoff model with a routing model. In addition, an error model is employed to represent a probabilistic hydrologic model. To be specific, the hydrologic model is coupled with a censoring error model to properly represent the features of ephemeral catchments. The performance of the censoring error model is evaluated by comparing it with the Gaussian error model, which has been utilized in a probabilistic model. We first address the necessity to consider ephemeral catchments through a review of the extensive research conducted over the recent decade. Then, the Yongdam Dam catchment is selected for our study area to confirm the usefulness of the hydrologic model developed in this study. Our results indicate that the use of the censored error model provides more reliable results, although the two models considered in this study perform reliable results. In addition, the Gaussian model delivers many negative flow values, suggesting that it occasionally offers unrealistic estimations in hydrologic modeling. In an in-depth analysis, we find that the efficiency of the censored error model may increase as the frequency of zero flow increases. Finally, we discuss the importance of utilizing the censored error model when the hydrologic model is applied for ephemeral catchments in South Korea.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.4367-4381
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• 2023

Nuclear power plants are increasingly being equipped with digital I&C systems. Although some probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models for the digital I&C of nuclear power plants have been constructed, there is currently no specific internationally agreed guidance for their modeling. This paper presents an initiative by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency called "Digital I&C PSA - Comparative application of DIGital I&C Modelling Approaches for PSA (DIGMAP)", which aimed to advance the field towards practical and defendable modeling principles. The task, carried out in 2017-2021, used a simplified description of a plant focusing on the digital I&C systems important to safety, for which the participating organizations independently developed their own PSA models. Through comparison of the PSA models, sensitivity analyses as well as observations throughout the whole activity, both qualitative and quantitative lessons were learned. These include insights on failure behavior of digital I&C systems, experience from models with different levels of abstraction, benefits from benchmarking as well as major contributors to the core damage frequency and those with minor effect. The study also highlighted the challenges with modeling of large common cause component groups and the difficulties associated with estimation of key software and common cause failure parameters.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 1999

Spectral fatigue damage calculations has been performed on four ships in order to assess the effect that the probabilistic modeling of sea states has on the estimated fatigue life. The damage estimation method is based on the Miner- Palmgren fatigue damage formulation and a spectral approach is used to determine the necessary variances of the stress processes. Both the horizontal and vertical hull girder bending induced stress process together with the local water pressure induced stress process is taken into account. The wave scatter diagrams are applied in the calculations and their fatigue severity is assessed by analyzing the results obtained with the ten scatter diagrams and the four ships. All four ships are analyzed both in full load and ballast conditions and while traveling at both full and reduced speed. It is found that the fatigue severity of a wave scatter diagram is dependent on several parameters, some of these being the extreme wave hight extrapolated from the scatter diagram and the mean zero up-crossing period in conjunction with the ship length . Based on these three parameters and expression is derived in order to calculate one single number describing the fatigue severity of a scatter diagram with respect to a certain ship.