• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
• /
• v.41 no.8
• /
• pp.619-624
• /
• 2013

To predict the probabilistic service life, statistical factors should be included to consider the uncertainty of parameters. Generally the probabilistic analysis is one of the common methods to account the uncertainty of parameters on the structural failure. In order to apply probabilistic analysis on the deterministic life analysis, it would be necessary to introduce Probability of Failure(PoF) and conduct risk assessment. In this work, we have studied probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft structures by using PoF approach. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian method was utilized to model PoF estimation since this method is known as the proper method to express the uncertainty of parameters. A series of proof tests were also conducted in order to verify the result of PoF estimation. The results from this efforts showed that the PoF estimation model can calculate quantitatively the value of PoF. Furthermore effectiveness of risk assessment approach for the aircraft structures was also demonstrated.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.254-259
• /
• 2008

Uncertainty of result of context awareness always exists in any context-awareness computing. This falling-off in accuracy of context awareness result is mostly caused by the imperfectness and incompleteness of sensed data, because of this reasons, we must improve the accuracy of context awareness. In this article, we propose a novel approach to model the uncertain context by using ontology and context reasoning method based on Bayesian Network. Our context aware processing is divided into two parts; context modeling and context reasoning. The context modeling is based on ontology for facilitating knowledge reuse and sharing. The ontology facilitates the share and reuse of information over similar domains of not only the logical knowledge but also the uncertain knowledge. Also the ontology can be used to structure learning for Bayesian network. The context reasoning is based on Bayesian Networks for probabilistic inference to solve the uncertain reasoning in context-aware processing problem in a flexible and adaptive situation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2009.05a
• /
• pp.52-56
• /
• 2009

In this study a dynamic modeling scheme is presented to derive the probabilistic structure of soil water and plant water stress when subject to stochastic precipitation conditions. The newly developed model has the form of the Fokker-Planck equation, and its applicability as a model for the probabilistic evolution of the soil water and plant water stress is investigated under climate change scenarios. This model is based on the cumulant expansion theory, and has the advantage of providing the probabilistic solution in the form of probability distribution function (PDF), from which one can obtain the ensemble average behavior of the dynamics. The simulation result of soil water confirms that the proposed soil water model can properly reproduce the results obtained from observations, and it also proves that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. The plant water stress simulation, also, shows two different PDF patterns according to the precipitation. Moreover, with all the simulation results with climate change scenarios, it can be concluded that the future soil water and plant water stress dynamics will differently behave with different climate change scenarios.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.21 no.5
• /
• pp.601-609
• /
• 2018

The estimated probabilistic model of wind data based on the conventional approach may have high discrepancy compared with the true distribution because of the uncertainty caused by the instrument error and limited monitoring data. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method has been developed in the companion paper and is conducted to formulate the joint probability density function (PDF) of wind speed and direction using the wind monitoring data of the investigated bridge. The established bivariate model of wind speed and direction only represents the features of available wind monitoring data. To characterize the stochastic properties of the wind parameters with the subsequent wind monitoring data, in this study, Bayesian inference approach considering the uncertainty is proposed to update the wind parameters in the bivariate probabilistic model. The slice sampling algorithm of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to establish the multi-dimensional and complex posterior distribution which is analytically intractable. The numerical simulation examples for univariate and bivariate models are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, the proposed Bayesian inference approach is used to update and optimize the parameters in the bivariate model using the wind monitoring data from the investigated bridge. The results indicate that the proposed Bayesian inference approach is feasible and can be employed to predict the bivariate distribution of wind speed and direction with limited monitoring data.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 1997.10a
• /
• pp.24-31
• /
• 1997

Recently, in Korea, demand for establishment of systematic risk assessment techniques for construction projects has increased, especially after the large construction failures occurred during construction such as New Haengju Bridge construction projects, subway construction projects, gas explosion accidents etc. Most of existing risk analysis modeling techniques such as Event Tree Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis may not be available for realistic risk assessment of construction projects because it is very complex and difficult to estimate occurrence frequency and failure probability precisely due to a lack of data related to the various risks inherent in construction projects like natural disasters, financial and economic risks, political risks, environmental risks as well as design and construction-related risks. Therefor the main objective of this paper is to suggest systematic probabilistic risk assessment model and demonstrate an approach for probabilistic risk assessment using advanced Event Tree Analysis introducing Fuzzy set theory concepts. It may be stated that the Fuzzy Event Tree AnaIysis may be very usefu1 for the systematic and rational risk assessment for real constructions problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically expert's experiences and subjective judgement.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.485-501
• /
• 2015

Cooling by the flow of water through an embedded cooling pipe has become a common and effective artificial thermal control measure for massive concrete structures. However, an extreme thermal gradient induces significant thermal stress, resulting in thermal cracking. Using a mesoscopic finite-element (FE) mesh, three-phase composites of concrete namely aggregate, mortar matrix and interfacial transition zone (ITZ) are modeled. An equivalent probabilistic model is presented for failure study of concrete by assuming that the material properties conform to the Weibull distribution law. Meanwhile, the correlation coefficient introduced by the statistical method is incorporated into the Weibull distribution formula. Subsequently, a series of numerical analyses are used for investigating the influence of the correlation coefficient on tensile strength and the failure process of concrete based on the equivalent probabilistic model. Finally, as an engineering application, damage and failure behavior of concrete cracks induced by a water-cooling pipe are analyzed in-depth by the presented model. Results show that the random distribution of concrete mechanical parameters and the temperature gradient near water-cooling pipe have a significant influence on the pattern and failure progress of temperature-induced micro-cracking in concrete.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.187-207
• /
• 2014

This paper mainly discusses the influence of the aggregate properties including grading, shape, content and distribution on the chloride diffusion coefficient, as well as the initiation time of steel corrosion from a probabilistic point of view. Towards this goal, a simulation method of random aggregate structure (RAS) based on elliptical particles and a procedure of finite element analysis (FEA) at meso-scale are firstly developed to perform the analysis. Next, the chloride diffusion coefficient ratio between concrete and cement paste $D_{app}/D_{cp}$ is chosen as the index to represent the effect of aggregates on the chloride diffusion process. Identification of the random distribution of this index demonstrates that it can be viewed as actually having a normal distribution. After that, the effect of aggregates on $D_{app}/D_{cp}$ is comprehensively studied, showing that the appropriate properties of aggregates should be decided by both of the average and the deviation of $D_{app}/D_{cp}$. Finally, a case study is conducted to demonstrate the application of this mesoscopic method in predicting the initiation time of steel corrosion in reinforced concrete (RC) structures. The mesoscopic probabilistic method developed in this paper can not only provide more reliable evidences on the proper grading and shape of aggregates, but also play an important role in the probability-based design method.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.16 no.5
• /
• pp.523-532
• /
• 2019

Different types of gas reservoir such as Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) are among the strategic infrastructures, and have great importance for any government or their private owners. To keep the tank and its contents safe during earthquakes especially if the contents are of hazardous or flammable materials; using seismic protection systems such as base isolator can be considered as an effective solution. However, the major deficiency of this system can be the large deformation in the isolation level which may lead to the failure of bearing system. In this paper, as a solution, the efficacy of an optimally designed combined vibration control system, the combined laminated rubber isolator and rotational friction damper, is investigated to evaluate the enhancement of an existing metal tank response under both far- and near-field earthquakes. Responses like impulsive and convective accelerations, base shear, and sloshing height are studied herein. The probabilistic framework is used to consider the uncertainties in the structural modeling, as well as record-to-record variability. Due to the high calculation cost of probabilistic methods, a simplified structural model is used. By using the Mont-Carlo simulation approach, it is revealed that this combined isolation system is a highly reliable system which provides considerable enhancement in the performance of reservoir, not only leads to the reduction of probability of catastrophic failure of the tank but also decrease the reservoir damage during the earthquake. Moreover, the relative displacement of the isolation level is controlled very well by this combined system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.54 no.8
• /
• pp.2933-2940
• /
• 2022

Approximations such as the delete-term approximation, rare event approximation, and minimal cutset upper bound (MCUB) need to be prudently applied for the quantification of a seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model. Important characteristics of seismic PSA models indicate that preserving the success branches in a primary seismic event tree is necessary. Based on the authors' experience in modeling and quantifying plant-level seismic PSA models, the effects of applying negate-down to the success branches in primary seismic event trees on the quantification results are summarized along with the following three insights gained: (1) there are two competing effects on the MCUB-based quantification results: one tending to increase and the other tending to decrease; (2) the binary decision diagram does not always provide exact quantification results; and (3) it is identified when the exact results will be obtained, and which combination provides more conservative results compared to the others. Complicated interactions occur in Boolean variable manipulation, approximation, and the quantification of a seismic PSA model. The insights presented herein can assist PSA analysts to better understand the important theoretical principles associated with the quantification of seismic PSA models.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.55 no.6
• /
• pp.2263-2275
• /
• 2023

In general, an internal fire events probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model is quantified by modifying the pre-existing internal event PSA model. Because many pieces of equipment or cables can be damaged by a fire, a single fire event can lead to multiple internal events PSA initiating events (IEs). Consequently, when the fire events PSA model is quantified, inappropriate minimal cut sets (MCSs), such as duplicate MCSs, may be generated. This paper shows that single quantification of a hypothetical single-top fire event PSA model may generate the following four types of inappropriate MCSs: duplicate MCSs, MCSs subsumed by other MCSs, nonsense MCSs, and MCSs with over-counted fire frequencies. Among the inappropriate MCSs, the nonsense MCSs should be addressed first because they can interfere with the right interpretation of the other MCSs and prevent the resolution of the issues related to the other inappropriate MCSs. In addition, we propose a resolution process for each of the issues caused by these inappropriate MCSs and suggest an overall procedure for resolving them. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding and resolution of the inappropriate MCSs that may appear in the quantification of fire events PSA models.