• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.243-243
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• 2015

Low-flow simulation and forecasting is one of the emerging issues in hydrology due to the increasing demand of water in dry periods. Even though low-flow simulation and forecasting remains a difficult issue for hydrologists better simulation and earlier prediction of low flows are crucial for efficient water management. The UN has never stated that South Korea is in a water shortage. However, a recent study by MOLIT indicates that Korea will probably lack water by 4.3 billion m3 in 2020 due to several factors, including land cover and climate change impacts. The two main situations that generate low-flow events are an extended dry period (summer low-flow) and an extended period of low temperature (winter low-flow). This situation demands the hydrologists to concentrate more on low-flow hydrology. Korea's annual average precipitation is about 127.6 billion m3 where runoff into rivers and losses accounts 57% and 43% respectively and from 57% runoff discharge to the ocean is accounts 31% and total water use is about 26%. So, saving 6% of the runoff will solve the water shortage problem mentioned above. The main objective of this study is to present the hydrological modelling approach for low-flow simulation and forecasting using a model that have a capacity to represent the real hydrological behavior of the catchment and to address the water management of summer as well as winter low-flow. Two lumped hydrological models (GR4J and CAT) will be applied to calibrate and simulate the streamflow. The models will be applied to Seolmacheon catchment using daily streamflow data at Jeonjeokbigyo station, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies will be calculated to check the model performance. The expected result will be summarized in a different ways so as to provide decision makers with the probabilistic forecasts and the associated risks of low flows. Finally, the results will be presented and the capacity of the models to provide useful information for efficient water management practice will be discussed.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.113-119
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• 2014

LCC 분석은 건축물의 설계단계 뿐만 아니라 유지관리 단계에서의 보수 보강 또는 교체에 대한 최적 의사결정의 도구로서 이론적으로나 실무적으로 각광을 받고 있는 분석 방법이다. 이는 초기 투자비용의 효율성을 극대화 하고 유지관리를 통한 구조물 사용성의 효율적 증대를 극대화하는 노력의 일환으로 최근 건축물의 설계 및 유지관리 시 LCC 분석효과의 실질적인 적용이 요구되어 지고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 일반적인 분석기법에 그치고 있는 기존 LCC 연구를 생애위험도를 고려한 LCC분석을 통해 설계단계 최적 의사결정을 위한 새로운 분석 방법론을 도출하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권7호
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• pp.2396-2406
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• 2021

The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center has been developing a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) methodology, which is based on explicit determination of performance, e.g., monetary losses, in a probabilistic manner where uncertainties in earthquake ground motion, structural response, damage estimation, and losses are explicitly considered. To carry out the PEER PBEE procedure for a component of the nuclear power plant (NPP) such as the cable tray system, hazard curve and spectra were defined for two hazard levels of the ground motions, namely, operation basis earthquake, and safe shutdown earthquake. Accordingly, two sets of spectral compatible ground motions were selected for dynamic analysis of the cable tray system. In general, the PBEE analysis of the cable tray in NPP was introduced where the resulting floor motions from the time history analysis (THA) of the NPP structure should be used as the input motion to the cable tray. However, for simplicity, a finite element model of the cable tray was developed for THA under the effect of the selected ground motions. Based on the structural analysis results, fragility curves were generated in terms of specific engineering demand parameters. Loss analysis was performed considering monetary losses corresponding to the predefined damage states. Then, overall losses were evaluated for different damage groups using the PEER PBEE methodology.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.701-713
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• 2018

Many bridges in Algeria were constructed without taking into account the seismic effect in the design. The implantation of a new regulation code RPOA-2008 requires a higher reinforcement ratio than with the seismic coefficient method, which is a common feature of the existing bridges. For better perception of the performance bridge piers and evaluation of the risk assessment of existing bridges, fragility analysis is an interesting tool to assess the vulnerability study of these structures. This paper presents a comparative performance of bridge piers designed with the seismic coefficient method and the new RPOA-2008. The performances of the designed bridge piers are assessed using thirty ground motion records and incremental dynamic analysis. Fragility curves for the bridge piers are plotted using probabilistic seismic demand model to perform the seismic vulnerability analysis. The impact of changing the reinforcement strength on the seismic behavior of the designed bridge piers is checked by fragility analysis. The fragility results reveal that the probability of damage with the RPOA-2008 is less and perform well comparing to the conventional design pier.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제83권2호
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• pp.229-244
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• 2022

This paper investigates the seismic performance of buildings designed using DDBD (Direct Displacement based Design) and FBD (Force based Design) approaches from the probabilistic viewpoint. It aims to estimate the collapse capacity of structures and assess the adequacy of seismic design codes. In this regard, (i) IDA (Incremental Dynamic Analysis) curves, (ii) interstory drift demand distribution curves, (iii) fragility curves, and (iv) the methodology provided by FEMA P-695 are applied to examine two groups of RC moment resistant frame buildings: 8-story structures with different plans, to study the effect of different span arrangements; and 3-, 7- and 12-story structures with a fixed plan, to study the dynamic behavior of the buildings. Structural modeling is performed in OpenSees software and validated using the results of an experimental model. It is concluded that increasing the building height would not significantly affect the response estimation of IDA and fragility curves of DDBD-designed structures, while the change in span arrangements is effective in estimating responses. In the investigation of the code adequacy, unlike the FBD approach, the DDBD can satisfy the performance criteria presented in FEMA P-695 and hence provide excellent performance.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.341-380
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• 2023

This study evaluates the seismic fragilities in fill slopes in South Korea through parametric finite element analyses that have been barely investigated thus far. We consider three slope geometries for a slope of height 10 m and three slope angles, and two soil types, namely frictional and frictionless, associated with two soil states, loose and dense for frictional soils and soft and stiff for frictionless soils. The input ground motions accounting for four site conditions in South Korea are obtained from one-dimensional site response analyses. By comparing the numerical modeling of slopes using PLAXIS^2D against the previous studies, we compiled suites of the maximum permanent slope displacement (D_max) against two ground motion parameters, namely, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and Arias Intensity (I_A). A probabilistic seismic demand model is adopted to compute the probabilities of exceeding three limit states (minor, moderate, and extensive). We propose multiple seismic fragility curves as functions of a single ground motion parameter and numerous seismic fragility surfaces as functions of two ground motion parameters. The results show that soil type, slope angle, and input ground motion influence these probabilities, and are expected to help regional authorities and engineers assess the seismic fragility of fill slopes in the road systems in South Korea.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제56권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2007

Generally, an electric railroad feeding system has many problems due to the different characteristics in contrast with a load of general three-phase AC electric power system. One of them is harmonics problem caused by the switching device existing in the feeding system, and moreover, the time-varying dynamic loads of rail way is inherently another cause to increase this harmonics problem. In Korea power systems, the electric railroad feeding system is directly supplied from the substation of KEPCO. Therefore, if voltages fluctuation or unbalanced voltages are created by the voltage and current distortion or voltage drop during operation, it affects directly the source of supply. The trainloads of electric railway system have non-periodic but iterative harmonic characteristics as operating condition, because the electric characteristic of the electric railroad feeding system is changed by physical conditions of the each trainload. According to the traditional study, the estimation of harmonics has been performed by deterministic way using the steady state data at the specific time. This method is easy to analyze harmonics, but it has limits in some cases which needs an assessment of dynamic load and reliability. Therefore, this paper proposes the probabilistic estimation method, moments matching method(MW) in order to overcome the drawback of deterministic method. In this paper, distributions for each harmonics are convolved to obtain the moments and cumulants of TDD(Total Demand Distortion), and this can be generalized for any number of trains. For the case study, the electric railway system of LAT(Intra Airport Transit) in Incheon International Airport is modeled using PSCAD/EMTDC dynamic simulator. The raw data of harmonics for the moments matching method is acquired from simulation of the LAT model.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.95-104
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• 2010

최근 지표수의 취수원 다변화 및 수질에 대한 불신 등으로 강변여과 개발에 관심이 모아지고 있다. 선진국에서의 강변여과 개발은 150년 정도의 역사를 가지고 있으며, 우리나라에서도 지속적으로 증가하고 있는 용수수요에 안정적으로 대처하기 위한 원수 확보방안으로 강변여과에 대한 조사가 1990년대부터 시작되었고, 현재 낙동강을 중심으로 몇몇 지자체에서는 강변여과를 활용한 상수도 공급이 이루어지고 있다. 그러나 지금까지는 강변여과에 의한 개발가능량 산정과 관정개발에 연구가 집중되어 개발가능지 선정에 관한 체계적인 연구가 이루어지지 않고 있는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 게임이론을 활용한 강변여과 개발 적지선정에 대해 연구하였다. 게임이론은 수학적 분석이론의 하나로 사회과학(특히 경제학)과 생물학, 공학, 컴퓨터과학 등에 적용되고 있으며, 본 연구에서는 강변여과 개발을 위한 적정 후보지 결정에 이용되었다. 제안된 정책모형은 확률적 접근을 시도한 새로운 방법론이며, 적지선정을 위한 효율적인 분석이 가능한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.41-50
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 수선교체이력 자료 및 전문가 의견을 기초데이터로 하고 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 건축물 수선교체주기에 대한 신뢰성 분석을 가능하게 할 수 있는 모델을 제시하였다. 제시된 모델은 건축물의 경년별 수선교체 시기를 확률적으로 제시하고 건물의 유지관리 계획시 신뢰성분석에 근거한 수선교체시기와 비용수요를 사전에 예측하도록 지원한다. 또한 건물의 소유주체나 유지관리 의사결정권자에게 공통적으로 발생하는 계획상의 많은 리스크를 감소시켜주는 역할을 할 것이다. 더불어 기존건물의 수선교체 이력데이터의 부재로 인해 의사결정에 많은 어려움 겪고 있는 대규모 건물자산의 유지관리책임자가 수선교체소요에 대한 중장기정책 수립시 이에 대한 타당성을 확보할 수 있는 공학적 해법이 제시되었다. 정리하면 크게 다음과 같이 3가지의 연구성과로 나눌 수 있다 첫째, 건축시스템의 발달에 대응할 수 있는 수선교체주기 산정법이 개발되었다. 둘째, 수선교체주기의 리스크를 정량화 시킬 수 있는 확률론적 방법론이 제안되었다. 셋째, 제안된 모델은 건축프로젝트에서 설계자와 시공자가 건물의 생애주기설계에 관한 의사결정을 지원할 수 있는 도구로 활용 가능할 것이다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.7-14
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• 2016

Unlike most researches that focus on single manufacturer or single buyer, this research studies the cooperation policy for two participants of supply chain such as single vendor and single buyer. Especially, this paper deals with single vendor-single buyer integrated-production inventory problem. If the buyer orders products, then the vendor will start to make products and then the products will be shipped from the vendor to the buyer many times. The buyer is supposed to order again when the buyer's inventory level hits reorder point during the last shipment and this cycle keeps repeated. The buyer uses continuous review inventory policy and customer's demand is assumed to be probabilistic. The contribution of this paper is to present a mixed approach and derive its cost function. The existing policy assumes that the size of shipping batch from single vendor to single buyer is increasing, called Type 1, or constant, called Type 2. In mixed approach, the size of shipping batch is increasing at the beginning part of the cycle, and then its size is constant at the ending part of the cycle. The number of shipping for Type 1 and Type 2 in a cycle in mixed approach is determined to minimize total cost. The relationship between parameters, for example, the holding cost per product, the set up cost per order, and the shortage cost per item and decision variables such as order quantity, safety factor, the number of shipments, and shipment increasing factor is figured out via sensitivity analysis. Finally, it is statistically proved that the mixed approach is superior to the existing approaches.