• 제목/요약/키워드: price fluctuation

검색결과 204건 처리시간 0.029초

원자재가격과 건화물선 운임지수의 비대칭구조 분석 (Empirical Investigation to The Asymmetric Structure between Raw Material Price and Baltic Dry-bulk Index)

  • 김현석
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구는 2012년 1월부터 2018년 5월까지의 주별 건화물선 운임과 원자재 가격 자료를 사용하여 두 변수간의 비대칭적인 관계를 다음의 두 가지를 중심으로 실증 분석한다. 첫째, 원자재가격의 거시경제지표에 대한 비대칭성을 2단계 경계(threshold) 공적분 검정모형으로 추정한다. 둘째, 기존의 원자재가격 변화의 무역수지에 대한 비대칭관계 검정을 보다 고빈도 건화물선 운임지수로 우회해서 검정한다. 추정결과 기존의 선형 분석과 대조적으로 하한과 상한에 대한 각각의 경계값이 상이한 비대칭성을 갖는 것으로 드러났다. 이는 불규칙적인 수익률 변동을 유발하는 급격한 잔차의 변동 구간이 원자재 가격과 건화물선 운임간의 선형의 장기균형관계가 성립하지 않도록 함을 의미한다. 따라서 이상의 추정결과는 급격한 가격 변화를 분석에 고려하기 위해서는 불규칙(irregular)적인 변동성을 제어하는 무반응(band of inaction)구간을 모형에 포함하는 것이 필요함을 의미하며 기존의 원자재가격의 무역수지에 대한 비대칭성과 일치하는 실증분석 결과다.

Comparative Economic Analysis on SOx Scrubber Operation for ECA Sailing Vessel

  • Jee, Jae-hoon
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.262-268
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    • 2020
  • The IMO (International Maritime Organization) has mandated the restriction of SOx emissions to 0.5 % for all international sailing vessels since January 2020. And, a number of countries have designated emission control areas for stricter environmental regulations. Three representative methods have been suggested to cope with these regulations; using low-sulphur oil, installing a scrubber, or using LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) as fuel. In this paper, economic analysis was performed by comparing the method of installing a scrubber with the method of using low-sulphur oil without installing additional equipment. We suggested plausible layouts and compared the pros and cons of dif erent scrubber types for retrofitting. We selected an international sailing ship as the target vessel and estimated payback time and benefits based on navigation route, fuel consumption, and installation and operation costs. Two case of oil prices were analyzed considering the uncertainty of fuel oil price fluctuation. We found that the expected payback time of investment varies from 1 year to 3.5 years depending on the operation ratio of emission control areas and the fuel oil price change.

발전량, 가격, 장기금리 변동성을 기초로 한 풍력발전사업의 실물옵션 가치평가 (Real Option Valuation of a Wind Power Project Based on the Volatilities of Electricity Generation, Tariff and Long Term Interest Rate)

  • 김영경;장병만
    • 신재생에너지
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2014
  • For a proper valuation of wind power project, it is necessary to consider volatilities of key parameters such as annual energy production, electricity sales price, and long term interest rate. Real option methodology allows to calculate option values of these parameters. Volatilities to be considered in wind project valuation are 1) annual energy production (AEP) estimation due to meteorological variation and estimation errors in wind speed distribution, 2) changes in system marginal price (SMP), and 3) interest rate fluctuation of project financing which provides refinancing option to be exercised during a loan tenor for commercial scale projects. Real option valuation turns out to be more than half of the sales value based on a case study for a FIT scheme wind project that was sold to a financial investor.

공동주택 건설공사비지수의 변동추세 분석 (Analysing Construction Cost Index Fluctuation on Apartment Housing)

  • 박원영;박태일
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2019년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.226-227
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    • 2019
  • The basic type construction cost which is the base of the building cost estimation is being adjusted according to the price changes by utilizing the apartment construction cost index in order to flexibly operate it. In this study, we analyzed the change trends and characteristics of the housing cost index for the basic type building cost model project operated from September, 2012 to March, 2018. As a result, the increase in material costs is slight while the share of the labor cost increased in the construction cost due to the rise of labor unit price, leading to a perceived increase in sensitivity of labor costs. We should be careful to keep the sensitivity of the material cost and the labor cost to an appropriate level so that the index may not be distorted.

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최근(最近) Carbon Black 산업(産業) 동향(動向) 고찰(考祭) (고무용(用) Carbon Black을 중심(中心)으로) (Studies on the Current Carbon Black Industries)

  • 황윤태;이창세
    • Elastomers and Composites
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 1992
  • This paper is concerned with analysis for market trend and technological tendency of rubber-use black among United state, Japan and Korea, Through this comparative analysis, the subjects with which domestic carbon black industry is confronted are : first, development of new grade carbon black such as high performance carbon black, Low rolling resistance carbon black and lower grit carbon black, Second, reduction of quality fluctuation, third, improvement of applied technology and fourth, strengthening the price competitiveness through process optimization and productivity increase.

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Recent Trends of Coated Sheet Steels for Automotive use

  • Moon, Man-Been
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.37-42
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    • 2012
  • Recent issues in the automotive industries are, improvement of fuel efficiency according to the worldwide $CO_2$ regulation, passenger safety through enhanced crashworthiness, superior design and cost reduction due to price fluctuation of raw material. To meet these demands, steelmaking companies are developing advanced high strength steel and new process technologies such as hydroforming, TWB(Tailor Welded Blank), hot stamping and so on. In addition, eco-friendly and high corrosion resistant coating technologies are getting more attention to comply with the environmental regulations. In this paper, reviews and prospects of recent coating technologies for automotive use are presented.

농식품 가격변동 요인분석을 위한 개체명 인식 (Named Entity Recognition for Analyzing Factors of Agrifood Price Fluctuation)

  • 박찬;이경순
    • 한국정보과학회 언어공학연구회:학술대회논문집(한글 및 한국어 정보처리)
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    • 한국정보과학회언어공학연구회 2020년도 제32회 한글 및 한국어 정보처리 학술대회
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    • pp.347-350
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    • 2020
  • 농식품 가격을 안정적으로 제공하기 위해 농식품 가격 변동에 대한 요인 분석이 필요하다. 본 연구는 농식품 가격 변동의 요인 분석을 위해 인과관계 템플릿을 정의하고, 요약을 위한 개체명 인식 방법을 적용한다. 농식품 일일동향 데이터에 대한 평가에서 딥러닝 기반 BiLSTM-CRF 실험 결과 F1-점수 0.93으로 베이스라인 Bi-LSTM 실험 결과 0.75에 비해 높은 성능을 보였다.

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미곡시장(米穀市場) 구조변화(構造變化)와 가격지지정책(價格支持政策) (The Rice Price Support Program in the midst of Structural Change)

  • 김지홍
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.3-26
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    • 1990
  • 1990년대에 들어 한국(韓國)의 미곡시장(米穀市場)은 대내외적(對內外的)으로 새로운 변화를 겪고 있다. 대외적(對外的)으로는 "우루과이라운드" 및 쌍무협정을 통해 대외개방(對外開放)과 생산보조금(生産補助金)의 감축에 대한 압력에 직면해 있고, 대내적(對內的)으로도 쌀소비의 감소(減少)로 1989년부터는 정부수매가격(政府收買價格)이 도매가격(都賣價格)을 상회하는 구조적(構造的)인 문제가 나타났다. 이러한 가격역전현상(價格逆轉現象)은 민간상인(民間商人)의 재고기능(在庫機能), 계절적(季節的) 가격안정기능(價格安定機能), 유통기능(流通機能)을 위축시키며, 정부재정(政府財政)에 주는 부담을 기하급수적으로 증가시킬 뿐만 아니라 미곡시장(米穀市場)의 가격구조(價格構造) 및 유통과정(流通過程)을 왜곡시키고 있다. 따라서 미가지지정책(米價支持政策)을 통환 증산(增産)보다는 농촌생활기반조성(農村生活基盤造成) 및 농업구조조정(農業構造調整)으로의 전환(轉換)이 필요하다. 그러나 농민들의 농업정책(農業政策)에 대한 불신, 농업기반(農業基盤)의 취약성, 그리고 정치적인 역학관계를 고려할 때 정부(政府)의 일방적인 지시보다는 농민이 선택할 수 있는 대안(代案)을 제시함이 바람직하며, 점진적인 구조개선(構造改善)이 필요하다고 생각된다. 이 논문에서는 전환기에 처한 한국(韓國) 미곡시장(米穀市場) 현황(現況) 대한 경제적(經濟的) 분석(分析)과 사회적(社會的) 비용(費用) 및 마찰(摩擦)을 최소화(最小化)하며 대내외(對內外) 환경변화에 적응할 수 있는 정책대안(政策代案)을 제시하고자 한다.

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스마트그리드 실시간요금과 연동되는 수요반응을 유도하기 위한 HEMS 설계에 관한 연구 (A Study on Design of Home Energy Management System to Induce Price Responsive Demand Response to Real Time Pricing of Smart Grid)

  • 강동주;박선주;최수정;한승재
    • 조명전기설비학회논문지
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    • 제25권11호
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2011
  • Smart Grid has two main objectives on both supply and demand aspects which are to distribute the renewable energy sources on supply side and to develop realtime price responses on demand side. Renewable energy does not consume fossil fuels, therefore it improves the eco-friendliness and saves the cost of power system operation at the same time. Demand response increases the flexibility of the power system by mitigating the fluctuation from renewable energies, and reduces the capacity investment cost by shedding the peak load to off-peak periods. Currently Smart Grid technologies mainly focus on energy monitoring and display services but it has been proved that enabling technologies can induce the higher demand responses through many pilot projects in USA. On this context, this paper provides a price responsive algorithm for HEMS (home energy management system) on the real time pricing environment. This paper identifies the demand response as a core function of HEMS and classifies the demand into 3 categories of fixed, transferable, and realtime responsive loads which are coordinated and operated for the utility maximization or cost minimization with the optimal usage combination of three kinds of demand.