• Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.121-129
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• 2011

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the fluctuation of an earning rate and risk management using the price index of Korea stocks. After an observation of conception of fluctuation, we can show volatility clustering and fluctuation phenomenon in the Korea stock price index using GARCH model with heteroscedasticity. In addition, the effects of fluctuation on the time-series was evaluated, which showed the heteroscedasticity. MCMC method and Winbugs as Bayesian computation were used for analysis.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.13-20
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• 2010

Uncertainty in housing price fluctuation has great impact on the overall economy due to importance of housing market as both place of residence and investment target. Therefore, estimating housing market condition is a highly important task in terms of setting national policy. Primary indicator of the housing market is a ratio between rent and transaction price of housing. The research explores dynamic relationships between Rent-Transaction price ratio, housing transaction price and jeonse rental price, using Vector Autoregressive Model, in order to demonstrate significance of shifting rent-transaction price that is subject to changes in housing transaction and housing rental market. The research applied housing transaction price index and housing rental price index as an indicator to measure transaction and rental price of housing. The price index and data for price ratio was derived from statistical data of the Kookmin Bank. The time-series data contains monthly data ranging between January 1999 and November 2009; the data was log transformed to convert to level variable. The analysis result suggests that the rising ratio between rent-transaction price of housing should be interpreted as a precursor for rise of housing transaction price, rather than judging as a mere indicator of a current trend.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.21 no.7
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• pp.65-71
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• 2023

Purpose: This study attempted to analyze the impacts of the backward linkage and output multipliers, and investigate the price fluctuation and the price forecast amongst the manufacturing sectors associated with food processing industrial output of Thailand. Research design, data and methodology: The Thailand Input-Output table with a size of 180 x 180 sectors from 2005, 2010, and 2015 was utilized while the secondary data of the time series from January 2002 to December 2021 were processed via a multiplicative model and Box-Jenkins model. Results: The backward linkage analysis indicates that canning and preserving of the meat sector majorly utilized the factors of production from the slaughtering sector; canning and preservation of fish and other seafoods sector largely used those factors from the ocean and coastal fishing sector; and the sugar sector used those of the sugarcane sector. Notably, the output multiplier analysis indicated that output multipliers of those 3 manufacturing sectors were highly increased; meanwhile the price fluctuation continually existed in all forms. Besides, the price forecast suggested that prices of chicken and sugarcane tended to be higher; whereas, the price of shrimp was unstable. Conclusions: Food processing industry contains the favorable components to be one of the industries of the future of Thailand.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.540-545
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to suggest problems and improving plan of process of calculating escalation rate of the Historical Cost by price fluctuation. In order to implement this research, we analyzed problems by calculating the rate of price fluctuation with Historical Cost and measurement applying method making on-site with historical cost data were included as samples and suggested improving plan to the adjustment of contract cost. The results of research according to this are same as followings:1) Of all construction details, it is more appropriate to calculate price fluctuation by applying measurement method to the contents of historical cost unit. 2) To avoid confusion in calculating method, it was indicated that amendment in part should be achieved in order to calculate by measuring the part of calculating escalation rate of Historical Cost at related law and regulation.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.51-64
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• 1998

This paper investigates how the factor inputs of firms are affected by the expectation about land-price increase in the future. We develope a two-factor (land and labor) model, in which expectation about land-price increase plays a key role in determining the "optimal" input level of labor and land. Expecting capital gains from input of the land when land price increases, firms input land up to the point where the marginal productivity of land falls short of the marginal cost of purchasing the land, in order to maximize the "joint-profit". That is, firms have an incentive to use more land than they do when capital gains are not expected. We mean joint-profit by profit in the standard sense plus capital gains. Once the land is input "excessively", the productivity of labor increase and labor is also input more, since land and labor are assumed as complementary in production. This mechanism works in the opposite direction when land price decrease. This paper suggests that land price fluctuation is a major destabilizer of an economy.or destabilizer of an economy.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.6D
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• pp.753-760
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• 2009

This study analyzed the fluctuation of the construction material cost from 2001 to 2008 in Busan to examine the effect of the fluctuation of the construction material cost on lotting price of the multi family attached house. The major findings are as follow. First, as the result of the analysis on four materials such as reinforced bar, remicon, PHC piles, Copper Tubes, those take largest portion of construction cost, it was found that the there is wide difference in price fluctuation of the each materials. The reinforced bar and Copper Tubes showed high price increase by an average 14.03% and 14.91% per year while remicon, PHC piles remained almost unmoved by an average 0.86% and 2.41%. Second, According to the result of the analysis on the mutuality between the fluctuation of the construction material cost and the lotting price of the multi-family attached house, it was found that the fluctuation of the construction material cost have the most enormous effect on the sale price of the multi-family attached house, when there is 3 month time lag in reinforced bar, remicon, PHC piles, Copper Tubes, commonly. Also this mutuality continues to 6 month, 9 month and 1 year, although it decrease a little bit.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.667-676
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• 2014

This study has conducted case studies in order to suggest alternatives to the historical data-based estimate system. Price fluctuation calculation methods based on historial cost indexes, standard estimate and construction cost indexes were applied to 9 road construction sites in Jeju for an analysis. As a result, in 5 construction sites (about 56% of 9 sites), the index control rate calculated based upon historical data-based estimate system was higher than that calculated based upon standard estimate and construction cost indexes. Thus the establishment of the requirements for the adjustment of contract price due to price fluctuation delays, which leads to a significant difference in price fluctuation amount. And, in an analysis of construction cost indexes, the indexes for road construction were used for calculating index control rate which ranges from 2.0 to 9.4 percent, indicating the time of construction amount and price fluctuation application has a significant influence on index control rate.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.3-11
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• 2011

There are several causes to recalculate the contract amount in public construction projects. Among them, the escalation clause was introduced in 1969 and now the condition to recalculate the cost is effective after 90 days from the date of contract and the rate of fluctuation should be more than 3% from the date of bidding. The two calculation methods for the rate of fluctuation are item-adjustment and index-adjustment. According to the results of investigation into 4 public institutions and 163 projects, all of them have used the method of index-adjustment and the rate of projects that spend over 6 months obtaining the approval of contract amount adjustment is more than 90%. The reason for spending lots of time is caused by problems of the calculation method on the price fluctuation rate. Therefore, it is necessary that the calculation method should be diversified to cope with the problems and a option of the builder should be expanded as well. Furthermore, if the way to apply correction factors to construction price index and average index based on the producer and consumer price index made by the bank of Korea is added, then the duration will be reduced without additional expenses. This study proposed the diversification of the calculation method using price fluctuation rate and builders' expanded options as improvement on the managerial method of Price Fluctuation System for the prompt and efficient contract amount adjustment.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.82-89
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• 2020

Article 64 of the Enforcement Decree of the National Contract Act The requirement of the pre-amendment statute related to the adjustment of the contract price was 5% or more of the price fluctuation rate from the date of the contract. However, the meeting requirement was changed from 5% or more to 3% or more from the date of signing of the Presidential Decree No. 19035 to 2005. 9. 8. The method of adjusting the contract amount was also changed to determine the contractor's desired adjustment method at the time of contract. Alleviating these requirements and revising the empowerment of contract partners is intended to prevent difficulties in achieving smooth objectives by applying to public construction contractors without unfairly benefiting or unfavorable to contract partners. Even if the standards are relaxed and the rights are secured as described above, if the existing provisions for the adjustment of price fluctuation are applied, unlike the original purpose of the government system, the Korea Bank's price economic statistics classification method and the contract construction classification criteria applied in public construction work Due to the inconsistency, it can be seen that the amount of adjustment for price fluctuation by construction type is excessive and underestimated. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze problems through cases and to make appropriate construction cost adjustment through improvement measures.

• Journal of the Korean Physical Society
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• v.73 no.10
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• pp.1431-1436
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• 2018

We study the scaling of the price fluctuation in the Korean housing market. From the numerical analysis, we show that the normalized return distribution of the housing price, P(r), has a fat-tail and is well approximated by a power-law, $P(r){\sim}r^{-({\alpha}+1)}$, with ${\alpha}{\simeq}3$ for the whole data set. However, if we divide the data into groups based on the trading patterns, then the value of ${\alpha}$ for positive tail and negative tail can be different depending on the trading patterns. We also find that the autocorrelation function of the housing price decays much slower than that of the stock exchange markets, which shows a unique feature of the housing market distinguished from the other financial systems.