• 제목/요약/키워드: predictive ability

검색결과 295건 처리시간 0.027초

고추 역병균에 대한 3-phenylisoxazole과 3-phenyl-2,5-dihydroisoxazol-5-one 유도체들의 살균 활성에 관한 비교 분자장 분석 (CoMFA) (Comparative molecular field analyses (CoMFA) on the antifungal activity against phytophthora blight fungus of 3-phenylisoxazole and 3-phenyl-2,5-dihydroisoxazol-5-one derivatives)

  • 성낙도;이희철
    • 농약과학회지
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2002
  • 일련의 3-phenyl-2,5-dihydroisoxazol-5-one(A)과 3-phenylisoxazole(B)유도체 중, 치환-phenyl기가 변화함에 따라 metalaxyl 살균제에 대하여 감수성(SPC:95C C7105)이나 저항성(RPC: 95CC7303)을 나타내는 고추역병균(Phytophthora capsici)의 살균활성 에 관한 비교 분자장 분석(CoMFA) 결과를 검토하였다. 살균활성은 (A)가 (B)보다 큰 경향이었으며 활성을 나타내는 가장 안정한 기질 분자의 형태는 평면성에 가까운 구조이었다. 두 균주를 대상으로 살균 활성에 미치는 CoMFA 장을 계산한 바, 상대적인 기여도는 공히, 정전기장이 가장 우세하였고 소수성장 및 입체장은 비슷한 정도로 기여하였다. 또한, CoMFA 모델은 좋은 상관성과 높은 예측성($q^2>0.570$$r^2>0.968$)을 나타내었다. 등고도 분석으로부터 RPC에 대한 살균활성의 선택성 요소는 benzoyl-기의 ortho, meta(C14 및 C15) 위치에는 부피가 큰 치환체를 그리고 meta, para(C15 및 C16) 위치부근에는 음하전을 생성하는 전자끌게가 도입되어야 할 것으로 판단된다.

Pre-treatment Metabolic Tumor Volume and Total Lesion Glycolysis are Useful Prognostic Factors for Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer Patients

  • Li, Yi-Min;Lin, Qin;Zhao, Long;Wang, Li-Chen;Sun, Long;Dai, Ming-Ming;Luo, Zuo-Ming;Zheng, Hua;Wu, Hua
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.1369-1373
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: To study application of the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) with $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT for predicting prognosis of esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESC) patients. Methods: Eighty-six patients with ESC staged from I to IV were prospectively enrolled. Cisplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) or palliative chemoradiotherapy were the main treatment methods and none received surgery. $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT scans were performed before the treatment. SUVmax, MTV, and TLG were measured for the primary esophageal lesion and regional lymph nodes. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) were generated to calculate the P value of the predictive ability and the optimal threshold. Results: MTV and TLG proved to be good indexes in the prediction of outcome for the ESC patients. An MTV value of 15.6 ml and a TLG value of 183.5 were optimal threshold to predict the overall survival (OS). The areas under the curve (AUC) for MTV and TLG were 0.74 and 0.70, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed an MTV less than 15.6 ml and a TLG less than 183.5 to indicate good media survival time (p value <0.05). In the stage III-IV patient group, MTV could better predict the OS (P < 0.001), with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.80 and 0.67, respectively. Conclusions: Pre-treatment MTV and TLG are useful prognostic factors in nonsurgical ESC.

Does Human Epididymis Protein 4 (HE4) Have a Role in Prediction of Recurrent Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

  • Innao, Pedrada;Pothisuwan, Methasinee;Pengsa, Prasit
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권9호
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    • pp.4483-4486
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    • 2016
  • Background: Despite the fact that ovarian cancer is the seventh most common cancer in women worldwide and the fifth leading cause of cancer death, It is the most common cause of death due to reproductive cancers in Thailand where epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is commonly found. According to a Thai statistical analysis in 2010 by the Department of Medical Services, epithelial ovarian cancer was the sixth most common cancer in Thailand from 2001to 2003.The incidence of 5.1 per 100,000 women per year. Human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) is a novo diagnostic tumor marker for EOC. The combination of HE4 and carcinoma antigen 125 (CA 125) is a tool for detecting epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) better than using CA 125 alone. Therefore, the researcher is interested in HE4 does have a role to predict recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: The patients who had complete response after diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer by pathology, FIGO stage 3 or more had been treated through surgery and chemotherapy at the Sunpasitthiprasong Hospital from June 2014 until March 2016. The patients were followed up every three months, using tumor marker (CA 125, HE4,Carcinoma antigen 19-9) together with other checkup methods, such as rectovaginal examination, CXR every year and other imaging as indication. Afterwards, the data was analyzed for the ability of HE4 to detect recurrence of epithelial ovarian cancer. Results: In 47 patients in this study follow-up for 22 months after complete response treatment from surgery and chemotherapy in epithelial ovarian cancer, 23 had recurrent disease and HE4 titer rising. The patients with recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer demonstrated high levels of both HE4 and CA125 with sensitivity of 91.3% and 52.7% respectively, specificity of 87.5% and 95.6% and positive predictive values of 87.5% and 85.7%. HE4 can predict recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer (p-value=0.02242). Comparing HE4 and CA125 in predicting recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer HE4 had more potential than CA125 (p-value =0.8314). Conclusions: The present study showed HE4 to have a role in predicting recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer and HE4 is potentially better than CA125 as a marker for this purpose.

철도사고의 인적오류 분석을 위한 수행도 영향인자 분류 (Taxonomy of Performance Shaping Factors for Human Error Analysis of Railway Accidents)

  • 백동현;구락조;이경선;김동산;신민주;윤완철;정명철
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2008
  • Enhanced machine reliability has dramatically reduced the rate and number of railway accidents but for further reduction human error should be considered together that accounts for about 20% of the accidents. Therefore, the objective of this study was to suggest a new taxonomy of performance shaping factors (PSFs) that could be utilized to identify the causes of a human error associated with railway accidents. Four categories of human factor, task factor, environment factor, and organization factor and 14 sub-categories of physical state, psychological state, knowledge/experience/ability, information/communication, regulation/procedure, specific character of task, infrastructure, device/MMI, working environment, external environment, education, direction/management, system/atmosphere, and welfare/opportunity along with 131 specific factors was suggested by carefully reviewing 8 representative published taxonomy of Casualty Analysis Methodology for Maritime Operations (CASMET), Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), Integrated Safety Investigation Methodology (ISIM), Korea-Human Performance Enhancement System (K-HPES), Rail safety and Standards Board (RSSB), $TapRoot^{(R)}$, and Technique for Retrospective and Predictive Analysis of Cognitive Errors (TRACEr). Then these were applied to the case of the railway accident occurred between Komo and Kyungsan stations in 2003 for verification. Both cause decision chart and why-because tree were developed and modified to aid the analyst to find causal factors from the suggested taxonomy. The taxonomy was well suited so that eight causes were found to explain the driver's error in the accident. The taxonomy of PSFs suggested in this study could cover from latent factors to direct causes of human errors related with railway accidents with systematic categorization.

Ability of Biochemical Parameters to Distinguish between Bile Duct Cancer and Gall Bladder Stones - A Case Control Study in a Tertiary Care Hospital of Pokhara Valley

  • Yadav, Shambhu Kumar;Mittal, Ankush;Sapkota, Kumar;Gupta, Satrudhan Prasad;Sathian, Brijesh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.817-819
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    • 2013
  • Background: The present study was designed to comparatively assess alteration of biochemical parameters in bile duct cancer and gall stone disease. Materials and Methods: A hospital based case-control study was carried out in the Department of Biochemistry of Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal between $1^{st}$ January 2010 and $31^{st}$ December 2012. The variables collected were age, gender, serum total cholesterol, total bilirubin, AST, ALT, serum alkaline phosphatase, albumin and hemoglobin. One way ANOVA was used to examine the statistical significance of differences between groups. A post-hoc LSD test was applied for the comparison of means of control versus case groups. A p-value of <0.05 (two-tailed) was considered significant. Results: The mean age of cases and controls was $53.2{\pm}21.2$ years. The levels of serum cholesterol were higher in cases of cancer $192.5{\pm}21.5$ mg/dl in comparison to stone cases $168.7{\pm}16.1$ mg/dl (p value: 0.0001). The total bilirubin showed the marked difference in cases of cancer $7.6{\pm}3.2$ mg/dl in comparison to stone cases $2.5{\pm}0.8$ mg/dl of bile duct. There was discernible divergence in values of alkaline phosphatase in cases of cancer $251.5{\pm}20.1$ IU/l when compared to stone cases $173.2{\pm}12.6$ IU/l of bile duct. In contrast, there was no apparent deviation in values of aspartate transaminases and alanine transaminases in cases of cancer $59.1{\pm}8.9$ IU/l and $105.5{\pm}26.5$ IU/l when compared to stone cases $56.9{\pm}7.9$ IU/l and $84.5{\pm}13.5$ IU/l respectively. Conclusions: LFT analysis for pre-operative assessment was a good predictive marker in setting apart bile duct cancer and gall bladder stone.

노인에서 치매 조기선별을 위한 시각.금전계산 검사의 유용성 (Availability of the Time and Change Test in Screening for Dementia in the Elderly)

  • 정은경;신민호;이정애
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제36권2호
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    • pp.101-107
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    • 2003
  • Objectives : Dementia has emerged as a leading public health problem in elderly persons, and its early detection is important for the treatment of curable cases, and in the educational support for other family members. Although dementia screening tests are available, they have not gained widespread use in community or primary care settings. Our goal was to validate the Tine and Change (T&C) Test, -including its validity and reliability in patients, and to assess it as a simple, standardized method for the screening of dementia in the rural elderly. Methods : The participants in this study comprised of 59 patients from an urban hospital and 405 persons from a rural community aged 65 years or older. The time test evaluated the understanding of clock hands indicating 11:10, and the change test the ability to make 1,000 Won from a group of coins, consisting of one 500, seven 100, and seven 50 Won coins. The T&C ratings were validated against a reference standard based on the physician's diagnosis of the patients. The convergent validity in relation to other cognitive measure, test-retest agreement, and inter-observer reliability were assessed. To assess the relationship between the Korean Mini-Mental State Exam (K-MMSE) and the T&C Test, the mean K-MMSE scores were compared with the results of the T&C Test in the elderly from a rural community. Results The T&C Test had a sensitivity and specificity of 73.0, and 90.9%, and positive and negative predictive values of 93.1, and 66.7%, respectively. The test-retest and inter-observer agreement rates were both 95%. The K-MMSE scores and T&C Test were significantly related in the elderly from a rural community (p<0.01), The T&C Test was not influenced by the educational status. The Time and Change Tests took a mean of 6.3 and 12.7 seconds, respectively, to complete Conclusion : The T&C Test is a simple, accurate and reliable, performance-based tool in the screening for dementia. Because it is quick, and easy-to-use, it is hoped the T&C Test will be used for the widespread cognitive screening of aging populations.

유기물의 인화점 예측을 위한 부분최소자승법과 SVM의 비교 (Comparison of Partial Least Squares and Support Vector Machine for the Flash Point Prediction of Organic Compounds)

  • 이창준;고재욱;이기백
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • 제48권6호
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    • pp.717-724
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    • 2010
  • 액체의 화재 및 폭발위험을 나타내는 가장 중요한 물성의 하나인 인화점의 실험 데이터는 그 필요에도 불구하고 실제로 데이터를 확보하는 것이 가능하지 않은 경우가 많다. 이 연구에서는 DIPPR 801에서 얻은 893개 유기물의 인화점 실험데이터로부터 인화점을 예측하는 부분최소자승법(PLS) 및 support vector machine(SVM) 모델을 만들고 비교하였다. 분자를 구성하는 각 구성요소들이 분자의 물성에 일정한 기여를 한다는 가정을 이용하여 분자의 물성을 예측하는 방법인 그룹기여법을 이용하여 65개 작용기가 이 예측모델의 독립변수가 되었고 분자량의 로그값이 추가되었다. 두 모델에서 결정해야 할 매개변수는 교차검증에서 계산된 오차를 이용하여 결정되었는데, SVM모델은 그 매개변수가 많아 particle swarm optimization을 이용한 최적화를 이용하였다. 훈련데이터의 선택이 예측성능에 영향을 줄 수 있어 임의로 100개의 데이터 세트를 생성하여 테스트하였다. 전체 데이터에 대해 계산된 평균절대오차는 PLS가 13.86~14.55였고, SVM이 7.44~10.26여서 SVM이 PLS에 비해 매우 우수한 예측성능을 보였다.

의사결정나무분석을 이용한 청소년 우울의 보호요인 예측모형 (Predictors of Protective Factors for Depression in Adolescent using Decision Making Tree Analysis)

  • 김보영
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제15권5호
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구는 의사결정나무 분석을 활용하여 청소년의 우울 보호요인을 예측하여 우울 예방과 조기발견 및 중재 방안을 마련하고자 시도된 서술적 조사연구이다. 연구대상은 G광역시에 소재한 청소년 총 485명이고, 자료 수집은 2013년 9월 23일부터 9월 26일 사이에 이루어졌다. 자료 분석은 SPSS 20.0 프로그램을 이용하여 빈도, 백분율, 평균과 표준편차 및 ${\chi}^2$-test, t-test, 의사결정나무 분석으로 분석하였다. 본 연구 결과, 4개의 경로, 총 12노드가 구축되었고 가족 결속력, 부모 자녀간 의사소통과 또래와의 의사소통이 청소년 우울 보호요인이었다. 우울의 보호요인 예측 정확도에서 분석용은 특이도 76.0%, 민감도 65.4%이었고, 검정용은 특이도 78.2%, 민감도 63.7%이었으며, 전체 분류 정확도는 분석용 70.1%, 검정용 69.7%이었다. 이에 본 연구 결과가 학교와 지역사회에서 청소년 정신보건을 담당하는 전문가들에게 우울을 예방을 위한 프로그램 개발의 기초자료로 제공되고, 나아가 청소년들이 자신들의 목소리를 되찾고 힘차게 성장하기 위한 보호요인 강화를 위한 우울예방 정책 전략에 활용되기를 기대해 본다.

ATM Signaling Pathway Is Implicated in the SMYD3-mediated Proliferation and Migration of Gastric Cancer Cells

  • Wang, Lei;Wang, Qiu-Tong;Liu, Yu-Peng;Dong, Qing-Qing;Hu, Hai-Jie;Miao, Zhi;Li, Shuang;Liu, Yong;Zhou, Hao;Zhang, Tong-Cun;Ma, Wen-Jian;Luo, Xue-Gang
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.295-305
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: We previously found that the histone methyltransferase suppressor of variegation, enhancer of zeste, trithorax and myeloid-nervy-deformed epidermal autoregulatory factor-1 domain-containing protein 3 (SMYD3) is a potential independent predictive factor or prognostic factor for overall survival in gastric cancer patients, but its roles seem to differ from those in other cancers. Therefore, in this study, the detailed functions of SMYD3 in cell proliferation and migration in gastric cancer were examined. Materials and Methods: SMYD3 was overexpressed or suppressed by transfection with an expression plasmid or siRNA, and a wound healing migration assay and Transwell assay were performed to detect the migration and invasion ability of gastric cancer cells. Additionally, an MTT assay and clonogenic assay were performed to evaluate cell proliferation, and a cell cycle analysis was performed by propidium iodide staining. Furthermore, the expression of genes implicated in the ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) pathway and proteins involved in cell cycle regulation were detected by polymerase chain reaction and western blot analyses. Results: Compared with control cells, gastric cancer cells transfected with si-SMYD3 showed lower migration and invasion abilities (P<0.05), and the absence of SMYD3 halted cells in G2/M phase and activated the ATM pathway. Furthermore, the opposite patterns were observed when SMYD3 was elevated in normal gastric cells. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the first evidence that the absence of SMYD3 could inhibit the migration, invasion, and proliferation of gastric cancer cells and halt cells in G2/M phase via the ATM-CHK2/p53-Cdc25C pathway. These findings indicated that SMYD3 plays crucial roles in the proliferation, migration, and invasion of gastric cancer cells and may be a useful therapeutic target in human gastric carcinomas.

과잉 재고자산투자의 시장반응에 대한 실증연구 (Do Stock Prices Reflect the Implications of Unexpected Inventories for Future Earnings?)

  • 김창범;박상봉
    • 경영과정보연구
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.63-85
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    • 2013
  • 본 논문은 변화하는 기업환경 하에서 중요성을 더해가는 재고자산 중에서 비정상적인 과잉 재고자산투자를 추출하고, 이러한 비정상적인 과잉 재고자산투자와 미래성과간의 관계를 이용하여 시장에서의 주가반응을 살펴보았다. 이를 위해, 본 논문은 먼저 과잉 재고자산투자와 미래성과간의 관계를 살펴보고, 이후 과잉 재고자산투자에 대한 시장반응을 분석하였다. 또한 추가검증으로 제로-투자 포트폴리오전략을 이용하여 초과수익률의 획득여부를 검증하였다. 실증결과, 과잉 재고자산투자와 미래 주식수익률간의 관계에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 제 변수들을 통제한 후에도 과잉 재고자산투자와 미래 주식수익률간의 음(-)의 관계는 유지되었다. 또한, 시장에서 투자자들은 이러한 과잉 재고자산투자를 과대평가하고 있었다. 아울러, 전술한 실증결과에 기초한 추가실증, 즉 제로-투자포트폴리오전략에 의해서도 유의적인 양(+)의 초과수익률의 획득이 가능함에 따라 전술한 실증결과를 뒷받침하고 있었다. 한편, 본 논문은 이러한 실증을 통하여, 과잉 재고자산 투자에 대하여 시장에서 투자자들이 과잉반응을 하고 있음을 실증하였다. 또한, 이러한 실증결과는 과잉 재고자산투자의 척도가 미래 주식수익률에 대한 예측지표로서 주식시장 등에서 활용이 가능함에 따라 회계정보로서의 유용성을 제고시키는 계기가 될 수도 있다는 점에서 의의가 있다.

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