• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제32권6D호
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• pp.599-605
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• 2012

교통개방시점의 예측은 공사 계획을 위해 중요하며 이를 위해 에폭시 아스팔트 혼합물의 양생에 따른 강도를 예측하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 에폭시 아스팔트 혼합물의 양생온도와 시간에 따른 마샬안정도를 측정하고 이를 이용해 강도 발현식을 구하였으며, 변화하는 온도와 강도에 따른 반응속도를 반영할 수 있도록 화학적 반응속도론을 이용하여 에폭시 아스팔트 강도 예측모델을 개발하였다. 예측모델을 사용하여 에폭시 아스팔트 포장이 적용된 국내 교량에 대해 교통개방시기를 예측하였다. 2009년~2011년의 기상조건에 따라 가정된 포장체 온도를 사용한 예측결과는 실제 교통개방일과 17일의 차이가 발생했으나 이는 2012년의 실제 기상상태와의 차이 때문이다. 실제 측정된 포장 온도를 예측모델에 대입할 경우 2일의 교통개방가능일 차이가 있었으며, 상관관계 분석 결과 R2가 0.95로 실제 강도값과 매우 유사한 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 기상상태와 포장체의 온도에 대한 충분한 데이터를 확보한다면 에폭시 아스팔트 강도 예측모델을 사용하여 상당히 신뢰도 있는 교통개방 가능 시기의 예측이 가능한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.83-95
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• 2017

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop a regression model to predict the International Roughness Index(IRI) and Surface Distress(SD) for the estimation of HPCI using Expressway Pavement Management System(PMS). METHODS : To develop an HPCI prediction model, prediction models of IRI and SD were developed in advance. The independent variables considered in the models were pavement age, Annual Average Daily Traffic Volume(AADT), the amount of deicing salt used, the severity of Alkali Silica Reaction(ASR), average temperature, annual temperature difference, number of days of precipitation, number of days of snowfall, number of days below zero temperature, and so on. RESULTS : The present IRI, age, AADT, annual temperature differential, number of days of precipitation and ASR severity were chosen as independent variables for the IRI prediction model. In addition, the present IRI, present SD, amount of deicing chemical used, and annual temperature differential were chosen as independent variables for the SD prediction model. CONCLUSIONS : The models for predicting IRI and SD were developed. The predicted HPCI can be calculated from the HPCI equation using the predicted IRI and SD.

• 설비공학논문집
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.609-615
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• 2000

The energy conservation is one of the most important issues in recent years. Especially, the energy conservation through improved control strategies is one of the most highly possible area to be implemented in the near future. The energy conservation of the ice storage system can be accomplished through the improved control strategies. A real time building load prediction algorithm was developed. The expected highest and the lowest outdoor temperature of the next day were used to estimate the next day outdoor temperature profile. The measured dry bulb temperature and the measured building load were used to estimate system parameters by using the on-line weighted recursive least square method. The estimated hourly outdoor temperatures and the estimated hourly system parameters were used to predict the next day hourly building loads. In order to see the effectiveness of the building load prediction algorithm, two different types of building models were selected and analysed. The simulation results show less than 1% in error for the prediction of the next day building loads. Therefore, this algorithm may successfully be used for the development of improved control algorithms of the ice storage system.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.225-234
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• 2023

In the design of HLW repositories, it is important to confirm the performance and safety of buffer materials at high temperatures. Most existing models for predicting hydraulic conductivity of bentonite buffer materials have been derived using the results of tests conducted below 100℃. However, they cannot be applied to temperatures above 100℃. This study suggests a prediction model for the hydraulic conductivity of bentonite buffer materials, valid at temperatures between 100℃ and 125℃, based on different test results and values reported in literature. Among several factors, dry density and temperature were the most relevant to hydraulic conductivity and were used as important independent variables for the prediction model. The effect of temperature, which positively correlates with hydraulic conductivity, was greater than that of dry density, which negatively correlates with hydraulic conductivity. Finally, to enhance the prediction accuracy, a new parameter reflecting the effect of dry density and temperature was proposed and included in the final prediction model. Compared to the existing model, the predicted result of the final suggested model was closer to the measured values.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제27권10호
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• pp.1676-1685
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• 2003

Tensile and low cycle fatigue tests on prior cold worked 3l6L stainless steel were carried out at various temperatures ftom room temperature to 650$^{\circ}C$. Fatigue resistance was decreased with increasing temperature and decreasing strain rate. Cyclic plastic deformation, creep, oxidation and interactions with each other are thought to be responsible for the reduction in fatigue resistance. Currently favored life prediction models were examined and it was found that it is important to select a proper life prediction parameter since stress-strain relation strongly depends on temperature. A phenomenological life prediction model was proposed to account for the influence of temperature on fatigue life and assessed by comparing with experimental result. LCF failure mechanism was investigated by observing fracture surfaces of LCF failed specimens with SEM.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.611-622
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• 2018

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.

• 한국지열·수열에너지학회논문집
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.8-14
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• 2016

In this study, the effects of prediction and reset control of outdoor air temperature on energy consumption for central heating system are researched by using TRNSYS program package, and the control performances with the suggested methods of prediction and reset control of outdoor air temperature are compared with the existing ones. As a result, the value of coefficient of determination $R^2$ for the predicted outdoor temperatures is improved and the suggested control method shows maximum 21.8% energy saving in comparison with existing control ones.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제61권11호
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• pp.1682-1688
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• 2012

This paper introduces a GP(Genetic Programming) based robust technique for temperature compensation in short-range prediction. Development of an efficient MOS(Model Output Statistics) is necessary to correct systematic errors of the model, because forecast models do not reliably determine weather conditions. Most of MOS use a linear regression to compensate a prediction model, therefore it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear and symbolic regression method using GP is suggested. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation by a GP based nonlinear MOS for 3 days temperatures in Korean regions. This method is then compared to the UM model and has shown superior results. The training period of 2007-2009 summer is used, and the data of 2010 summer is adopted for verification.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제6권6호
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• pp.441-446
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• 2000

This paper presents an approach for the prediction of optimal heating load using a diagonal recurrent neural networks(DRNN) and data base system of outdoor temperature. In the DRNN, a dynamic backpropagation(DBP) with delta-bar-delta teaming method is used to train an optimal heating load identifier. And the data base system is utilized for outdoor temperature prediction. Compared to other kinds of methods, the proposed method gives better prediction performance of heating load. Also a hardware for the controller is developed using a microprocessor. The experimental results show that prediction enhancement for heating load can be achieved with the proposed method regardless of the its inherent nonlinearity and large time constant.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.43-48
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• 2001

In this paper, the real-time prediction of high temperature creep strength and creep for nickel-based superalloy Udimet 720 (high-temperature and high-pressure gas turbine engine materials) was performed on round-bar type specimens under pure load at the temperatures of 538, 649 and 704$^{\circ}C$. The predictive equation of ISM creep has better reliability than that of LMP and LMP-ISM, and its reliability is getting better for long time creep prediction ($10^3~10^5$h).