• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction of temperature

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Studies on the Prediction of the Shelf-life of Kochujang through the Physicochemical and Sensory Analyses during Storage (고추장 저장 중 이화학 및 관능적 특성에 의한 유통기간 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Ki-Young;Kim, Hyung-Suk;Lee, Hyeon-Gyu;Han, Ouk;Chang, Un-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.588-594
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    • 1997
  • In this study, the shelf-life of Kochujang during storage was predicted through physicochemical and sensory analyses. Amino nitrogen, lightness, characteristics of surface color, pH and number of viable cell counts in Kochujang decreased during storage, while ammonia nitrogen, titratable acidity and viscosity increased. Among the physicochemical analyses, amino nitrogen content exhibited the highest correlation with sensory score. The marginal amounts of amino nitrogen was 170.6mg%. Degradation rate of amino nitrogen was a first order reaction. Q$_{10}$-value and the activation energy of Kochujang during storage were 1.80 and 8.6kca1/mol, respectively. The shelf-life Predicted of Kochujang at each storage temperature was calculated. The shelf-life predicted was 467 days at 1$0^{\circ}C$, 261 days at 2$0^{\circ}C$ and 133 days at 35$^{\circ}C$.

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Data Assimilation Effect of Mobile Rawinsonde Observation using Unified Model Observing System Experiment during the Summer Intensive Observation Period in 2013 (2013년 여름철 집중관측동안 통합모델 관측시스템실험을 이용한 이동형 레윈존데 관측의 자료동화 효과)

  • Lim, Yun-Kyu;Song, Sang-Keun;Han, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.215-224
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    • 2014
  • Data assimilation effect of mobile rawinsonde observation was evaluated using Unified Model (UM) with a Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system during the intensive observation program of 2013 summer season (rainy season: 20 June-7 July 2013, heavy rain period: 8 July-30 July 2013). The analysis was performed by two sets of simulation experiments: (1) ConTroL experiment (CTL) with observation data provided by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and (2) Observing System Experiment (OSE) including both KMA and mobile rawinsonde observation data. In the model verification during the rainy season, there were no distinctive differences for 500 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa air temperature, and 300 hPa wind speed between CTL and OSE simulation due to data limitation (0000 and 1200 UTC only) at stationary rawinsonde stations. In contrast, precipitation verification using the hourly accumulated precipitation data of Automatic Synoptic Observation System (ASOS) showed that Equivalent Threat Score (ETS) of the OSE was improved by about 2% compared with that of the CTL. For cases having a positive effect of the OSE simulation, ETS of the OSE showed a significantly higher improvement (up to 41%) than that of the CTL. This estimation thus suggests that the use of mobile rawinsonde observation data using UM 3DVAR could be reasonable enough to assess the improvement of prediction accuracy.

Argo Project: On the Distribution Prediction of Drifting Argo Floats (Argo프로젝트: Argo플로트 분포 예측)

  • Yang Chan-Su;Ishida Akio
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2004
  • An international project, known as Argo, for collecting data on temperature, salinity and velocity of currents in the world's oceans, has been started in the year 2000 and the full Argo array of approximately 3000 floats will be deployed by 2006. 18 countries deployed 1,023 floats, which are operating in the ocean of the world as of December 2003. In the present study, we tried to predict float distribution and a rate of drifting ashore of the floats after their termination based upon a product of the ocean general circulation model of JAMSTEC (Japan Marine Science and Technology Center). We first evaluated reliability of the model prodilct quantitatively by comparing trajectories of surface buoys of WOCE Surface Velocity Program (SVP) and those predicted by the model surface current field. It is found that the model is acceptable for practical application to deploy floats and to estimate those trajectories. 653 particles at 3-degree spacing are used to investigate the ratio of floats drifted ashore, given that during the first 4 years floats cycle between the surface and 2000m for 10 days and then floats are on just the surface for 100 years. The simulation indicates that about 29% of deployed floats will be drifted ashore within 100-year.

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Numerical Study on the Thermal NOx Reduction by Addition of Moisture in LNG Flame (가습 공기의 LNG 화염 Thermal NOx 저감의 수치 해석적 연구)

  • Shin, Mi-Soo;Park, Mi-Sun;Jang, Dong-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.837-842
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    • 2014
  • A computer program is developed for the prediction of NO generation by the addition of water moisture and water electrolysis gas in LNG-fired turbulent reacting flow. This study is the first part to deal with the moisture effect on NO generation. In this study, parametric investigation has been made in order to see the reduction of thermal NO as a function of amount of moisture content in a LNG-fired flame together with the swirl and radiation effect. First of all, calculation results show that the flame separation together with the NO concentration separation are observed by the typical flow separation due to strong swirl flow. With a fixed amount of air, the increased amount of water moisture from 0 to 10% by 2% interval shows the decrease of NO concentration and flame temperature at exit are from $973^{\circ}C$ and 139 ppm to $852^{\circ}C$ and 71 ppm. The radiation effects on the generation on NO appears more dominant than swirl strength over the range employed in this study. However, for the strong swirl flow employed in this study, the flow separation cause the relatively high NO concentration observed near exit after peak concentration in the front side of the combustor.

Geographical Shift in Blooming Date of Kiwifruits in Jeju Island by Global Warming (지구온난화에 따른 제주도 내 참다래 개화일의 지리적 이동)

  • Kwon, Young-Soon;Kim, Soo-Ock;Seo, Hyeong-Ho;Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.179-188
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    • 2012
  • A kiwifruit cultivar 'Hayward' has been grown in Jeju Island where the current climate is suitable for growth and development of this crop. Prediction of the geographical shift in the phenology can help the kiwifruits growers to adapt to the local climate change in the future. Two phenology models (i.e., chill-day and DVS) were parameterized to estimate flowering date of kiwifruits 'Hayward' based on the data collected from field plots and chamber experiments in the southern coastal and island locations in South Korea. Spatio-temporally independent datasets were used to evaluate performance of the two models in predicting flowering date of 'Hayward'. Chill-day model showed better performance than DVS model (2.5 vs. 4.0 days in RMSE). Daily temperature data interpolated at a higher spatial resolution over Jeju Island were used to predict flowering dates of 'Hayward' in 2021-2100 under the A1B scenario. According to the model calculation under the future climate condition, the flowering of kiwifruits shall accelerate and the area with poor flowering might increase due to the warmer winter induced insufficient chilling. Optimal land area for growing 'Hayward' could increase for a while in the near future (2021-2030), whereas such areas could decrease to one half of the current areas by 2100. The geographic locations suitable for 'Hayward' cultivation would migrate from the current coastal area to the elevated mountain area by 250 m.

MARYBLYT Study for Potential Spread and Prediction of Future Infection Risk of Fire Blight on Blossom of Singo Pear in Korea (우리나라 신고배 화상병 꽃감염 확산 가능성 및 미래 감염위험 예측을 위한 MARYBLYT 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Sun;Yun, Sung-Chul
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.182-192
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    • 2018
  • Since fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) firstly broke out at mid-Korea in 2015, it is necessary to investigate potential spread of the invasive pathogen. To speculate environmental factors of fireblight epidemic based on disease triangle, a fire blight predicting program, MARYBLYT, was run with the measured meteorological data in 2014-2017 and the projecting future data under RCP8.5 scenario for 2020-2100. After calculating blossom period of Singo pear from phenology, MARYBLYT was run for blossom blight during the blossom period. MARYBLYT warned "Infection" blossom blight in 2014-15 at Anseong and Cheonan as well as Pyungtak and Asan. In addition, it warned "Infection" in 2016-17 at Naju. More than 80% of Korean areas were covered "Infection" or "High", therefore Korea was suitable for fire blight recently. Blossom blight for 2020-2100 was predicted to be highly fluctuate depending on the year. For 80 years of the future, 20 years were serious with "Infection" covered more than 50% of areas in Korea, whereas 8 years were not serious covered less than 10%. By comparisons between 50% and 10% of the year, temperature and amount of precipitation were significantly different. The results of this study are informative for policy makers to manage the alien pathogen.

Comparison of Carbonaceous Sediment Oxygen Demand in Lake Paldang and Lake Chungju (팔당호와 충주호 퇴적물의 탄소성 산소요구량 비교)

  • Shin, Yu-Na;Park, Hae-Kyung;Lee, Sang-Won;Kong, Dong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.439-448
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the seasonal variations of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) in Lake Paldang and Lake Chungju of the Han River system and to suggest SOD values as parameters for the water quality prediction models of two lakes. SOD was measured at laboratory using sediment collected at 2 sites in Lake Paldang from June to November and at 4 sites in Lake Chungju from May to November in 2005, respectively. It was found from the laboratory test that the SOD in Lake Paldang ranged from 337.8 to 881.0 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$ and in Lake Chungju ranged from 143.0 to 969.1 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$. The SOD of Lake Paldang showed similar variations to the content of organic matter of sediment. The SOD of Lake Chungju was positively correlated with temperature (r=0.78, p<0.01), $PO_4-P(r=0.79,\;p<0.01)$, TP (r=0.55, p<0.05), DTP (r=0.55, p<0.05), $NO_3-N$ (r=(0.72, p<0.01) of hypolimnetic water. These results indicate that the SOD of Lake Paldang was affected by the content and origin of organic matter of sediment and the SOD of Lake Chungju was closely correlated with physical and chemical factors.

Predictive Model for Growth of Staphylococcus aureus in Suyuk (수육에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장 예측모델)

  • Park, Hyoung-Su;Bahk, Gyung-Jin;Park, Ki-Hwan;Pak, Ji-Yeon;Ryu, Kyung
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2010
  • Cooked pork can be easily contaminated with Staphylococcus aureus during carriage and serving after cooking. This study was performed to develop growth prediction models of S. aureus to assure the safety of cooked pork. The Baranyi and Gompertz primary predictive models were compared. These growth models for S. aureus in cooked pork were developed at storage temperatures of 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$. The specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) values were calculated. The Baranyi model, which displayed a $R^2$ of 0.98 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.27, was more compatible than the Gompertz model, which displayed 0.84 in both $R^2$ and RMSE. The Baranyi model was used to develop a response surface secondary model to indicate changes of LT and SGR values according to storage temperature. The compatibility of the developed model was confirmed by calculating $R^2$, $B_f$, $A_f$, and RMSE values as statistic parameters. At 5, 15 and $25^{\circ}C$, $R^2$ was 0.88, 0.99 and 0.99; RMSE was 0.11, 0.24 and 0.10; $B_f$ was 1.12, 1.02 and 1.03; and $A_f$ was 1.17, 1.03 and 1.03, respectively. The developed predictive growth model is suitable to predict the growth of S. aureus in cooked pork, and so has potential in the microbial risk assessment as an input value or model.

Analysis of Water Quality Impact of Hapcheon Dam Reservoir According to Changes in Watershed Runoff Using ANN (ANN을 활용한 유역유출 변화에 따른 합천댐 저수지 수질영향 분석)

  • Jo, Bu Geon;Jung, Woo Suk;Lee, Jong Moon;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.25-37
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    • 2022
  • Climate change is becoming increasingly unpredictable. This has led to changes in various systems such as ecosystems, human life and hydrological cycles. In particular, the recent unpredictable climate change frequently causes extreme droughts and torrential rains, resulting in complex water resources disasters that cause water pollution due to inundation and retirement rather than primary disasters. SWAT was used as a watershed model to analyze future runoff and pollutant loads. The climate scenario analyzed the RCP4.5 climate scenario of the Meteorological Agency standard scenario (HadGEM3-RA) using the normal quantitative mapping method. Runoff and pollutant load analysis were performed by linkage simulation of climate scenario and watershed model. Finally, the results of application and verification of linkage model and analysis of future water quality change due to climate change were presented. In this study, we simulated climate change scenarios using artificial neural networks, analyzed changes in water temperature and turbidity, and compared the results of dams with artificial neural network results through W2 model, a reservoir water quality model. The results of this study suggest the possibility of applying the nonlinearity and simplicity of neural network model to Hapcheon dam water quality prediction using climate change.

Development of Flow Loop System to Evaluate the Performance of ESP in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells (비전통 유·가스정에서 ESP 성능 평가를 위한 Flow Loop 시스템 개발)

  • Sung-Jea Lee;Jun-Ho Choi;Jeong-Hwan Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2023
  • The electric submersible pump (ESP) has been operating in production wells around the world because of its high applicability and operational efficiency among artificial lift techniques. When operating an ESP in a reservoir, variables such as temperature, pressure, gas/oil ratio, and flow rate are factors that affect ESP performance. In particular, free gas in the production fluid is a major factor that reduces the life and operational efficiency of ESP. This study presents the flow loop system which can implement the performance and damage tests of ESP considering field operating conditions to quantitatively analyze the variables that affect ESP performance. The developed apparatus in an integrated system that can diagnose the failure and causes of ESP, and detect leak of tubing by linking ESP and tubing as one system. In this study, the flow conditions for stable operation of ESP were identified through single phase and two phase flow experiments related to evaluation for the performance of ESP. The results provide the basic data to develop the failure prediction and diagnosis program of ESP, and are expected to be used for real-time monitoring for optimal operating conditions and failure diagnosis for ESP operation.