Research in Plant Disease (식물병연구)

The Korean Society of Plant Pathology (한국식물병리학회)
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MARYBLYT Study for Potential Spread and Prediction of Future Infection Risk of Fire Blight on Blossom of Singo Pear in Korea

우리나라 신고배 화상병 꽃감염 확산 가능성 및 미래 감염위험 예측을 위한 MARYBLYT 연구

  • Kim, Min-Sun (Department of Pharmaceutical Engineering and Biotechnology, Sunmoon University) ;
  • Yun, Sung-Chul (Department of Pharmaceutical Engineering and Biotechnology, Sunmoon University)
  • 김민선 (선문대학교 제약생명공학과) ;
  • 윤성철 (선문대학교 제약생명공학과)
  • Received : 2018.06.01
  • Accepted : 2018.06.23
  • Published : 2018.09.30
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Abstract

Since fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) firstly broke out at mid-Korea in 2015, it is necessary to investigate potential spread of the invasive pathogen. To speculate environmental factors of fireblight epidemic based on disease triangle, a fire blight predicting program, MARYBLYT, was run with the measured meteorological data in 2014-2017 and the projecting future data under RCP8.5 scenario for 2020-2100. After calculating blossom period of Singo pear from phenology, MARYBLYT was run for blossom blight during the blossom period. MARYBLYT warned "Infection" blossom blight in 2014-15 at Anseong and Cheonan as well as Pyungtak and Asan. In addition, it warned "Infection" in 2016-17 at Naju. More than 80% of Korean areas were covered "Infection" or "High", therefore Korea was suitable for fire blight recently. Blossom blight for 2020-2100 was predicted to be highly fluctuate depending on the year. For 80 years of the future, 20 years were serious with "Infection" covered more than 50% of areas in Korea, whereas 8 years were not serious covered less than 10%. By comparisons between 50% and 10% of the year, temperature and amount of precipitation were significantly different. The results of this study are informative for policy makers to manage the alien pathogen.

화상병은 우리나라에서 그동안 존재하지 않았던 금지병으로서 2015년 최초로 발병한 후 아직 박멸되지 않아, 국내 확산 연구가 필요하다. 병 삼각형 원리를 바탕으로 화상병 발병에 적합한 환경 요인을 추론하기 위해서, 최근 4년(2014-2017년) 우리나라 기상관측 자료 및 미래(2020-2100년) 기후변화 시나리오 RCP8.5 예측 기상자료를 입력하여 화상병 발병 예측프로그램인 MARYBLYT로 꽃감염을 예측하였다. 이 예측 프로그램은 신고배 개화기간을 먼저 계산한 후, 개화기간 중 매일매일의 화상병 꽃감염 위험 경보를 출력하였다. 최근 4년 동안 꽃감염 결과 화상병 발생지인 경기 안성과 천안뿐만 아니라 인근 주산지인 평택, 아산 모두 2014년과 2015년에 "Infection" 경보가 나타났다. 또한 배 주산지인 전남 나주는 2016-2017년 "Infection" 경보가 나타났다. 최근 4년간 방제 권고 수준인 "Infection" 또는 "High" 경보 발령은 우리나라 전체 중 80% 지역에서 나타나 우리나라는 화상병 발병에 적합한 환경이었다. 80년간 미래 기후변화 기상자료로 개화기간 동안 화상병 꽃감염을 예측한 결과 해마다 감염위험 지역이 급변하였다. 하루 이상 "Infection" 경보가 발령되는 지역이 전국의 50%가 넘을 정도로 광범위할 것으로 예측되는 해는 총 20년이었던 반면 "Infection" 경보가 전국의 10% 미만 지역일 것으로 예측된 해는 8년이었다. 이들 두 그룹의 환경요인 비교분석 결과, 개화기간 중 평균온도와 누적 강수량이 유의하게 달랐다. 본 연구 결과는 외래 침입균인 화상병 관리를 담당하는 정책 당국에 적절한 정보를 제공할 것이다.

Keywords

References

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