• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction model of collapse

Search Result 65, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Analysis of Time-Series data According to Water Reduce Ratio and Temperature and Humidity Changes Affecting the Decrease in Compressive Strength of Concrete Using the SARIMA Model

  • Kim, Joon-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.27 no.10
    • /
    • pp.123-130
    • /
    • 2022
  • In this paper is one of the measures to prevent concrete collapse accidents at construction sites in advance. Analyzed based on accumulated Meteorological Agency data. It is a reliable model that confirms the prediction of the decrease rate occurrence interval, and the verification items such as p_value is 0.5 or less and ecof appears in one direction through the SARIMA model, which is suitable for regular and clear time series data models, ensure reliability. Significant results were obtained. As a result of analyzing the temperature change by time zone and the water reduce ratio by section using the data secured based on such trust, the water reduce ratio is the highest in the 29-31 ℃ section from 12:00 to 13:00 from July to August. found to show. If a factor in the research result interval occurs using the research results, it is expected that the batch plant will produce Ready-mixed concrete that reflects the water reduce ratio at the time of designing the water-cement mixture, and prevent the decrease in concrete compressive strength due to the water reduce ratio.

Stability evaluation model for loess deposits based on PCA-PNN

  • Li, Guangkun;Su, Maoxin;Xue, Yiguo;Song, Qian;Qiu, Daohong;Fu, Kang;Wang, Peng
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.551-560
    • /
    • 2021
  • Due to the low strength and high compressibility characteristics, the loess deposits tunnels are prone to large deformations and collapse. An accurate stability evaluation for loess deposits is of considerable significance in deformation control and safety work during tunnel construction. 37 groups of representative data based on real loess deposits cases were adopted to establish the stability evaluation model for the tunnel project in Yan'an, China. Physical and mechanical indices, including water content, cohesion, internal friction angle, elastic modulus, and poisson ratio are selected as index system on the stability level of loess. The data set is randomly divided into 80% as the training set and 20% as the test set. Firstly, principal component analysis (PCA) is used to convert the five index system to three linearly independent principal components X1, X2 and X3. Then, the principal components were used as input vectors for probabilistic neural network (PNN) to map the nonlinear relationship between the index system and stability level of loess. Furthermore, Leave-One-Out cross validation was applied for the training set to find the suitable smoothing factor. At last, the established model with the target smoothing factor 0.04 was applied for the test set, and a 100% prediction accuracy rate was obtained. This intelligent classification method for loess deposits can be easily conducted, which has wide potential applications in evaluating loess deposits.

A study on EPB shield TBM face pressure prediction using machine learning algorithms (머신러닝 기법을 활용한 토압식 쉴드TBM 막장압 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Kibeom;Choi, Hangseok;Oh, Ju-Young;Kim, Dongku
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.217-230
    • /
    • 2022
  • The adequate control of TBM face pressure is of vital importance to maintain face stability by preventing face collapse and surface settlement. An EPB shield TBM excavates the ground by applying face pressure with the excavated soil in the pressure chamber. One of the challenges during the EPB shield TBM operation is the control of face pressure due to difficulty in managing the excavated soil. In this study, the face pressure of an EPB shield TBM was predicted using the geological and operational data acquired from a domestic TBM tunnel site. Four machine learning algorithms: KNN (K-Nearest Neighbors), SVM (Support Vector Machine), RF (Random Forest), and XGB (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) were applied to predict the face pressure. The model comparison results showed that the RF model yielded the lowest RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) value of 7.35 kPa. Therefore, the RF model was selected as the optimal machine learning algorithm. In addition, the feature importance of the RF model was analyzed to evaluate appropriately the influence of each feature on the face pressure. The water pressure indicated the highest influence, and the importance of the geological conditions was higher in general than that of the operation features in the considered site.

Dynamic vulnerability assessment and damage prediction of RC columns subjected to severe impulsive loading

  • Abedini, Masoud;Zhang, Chunwei
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.77 no.4
    • /
    • pp.441-461
    • /
    • 2021
  • Reinforced concrete (RC) columns are crucial in building structures and they are of higher vulnerability to terrorist threat than any other structural elements. Thus it is of great interest and necessity to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the possible responses of RC columns when exposed to high intensive blast loads. The primary objective of this study is to derive analytical formulas to assess vulnerability of RC columns using an advanced numerical modelling approach. This investigation is necessary as the effect of blast loads would be minimal to the RC structure if the explosive charge is located at the safe standoff distance from the main columns in the building and therefore minimizes the chance of disastrous collapse of the RC columns. In the current research, finite element model is developed for RC columns using LS-DYNA program that includes a comprehensive discussion of the material models, element formulation, boundary condition and loading methods. Numerical model is validated to aid in the study of RC column testing against the explosion field test results. Residual capacity of RC column is selected as damage criteria. Intensive investigations using Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) methodology are then implemented to evaluate the influence of scaled distance, column dimension, concrete and steel reinforcement properties and axial load index on the vulnerability of RC columns. The generated empirical formulae can be used by the designers to predict a damage degree of new column design when consider explosive loads. With an extensive knowledge on the vulnerability assessment of RC structures under blast explosion, advancement to the convention design of structural elements can be achieved to improve the column survivability, while reducing the lethality of explosive attack and in turn providing a safer environment for the public.

Study on the influence of structural and ground motion uncertainties on the failure mechanism of transmission towers

  • Zhaoyang Fu;Li Tian;Xianchao Luo;Haiyang Pan;Juncai Liu;Chuncheng Liu
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.311-326
    • /
    • 2024
  • Transmission tower structures are particularly susceptible to damage and even collapse under strong seismic ground motions. Conventional seismic analyses of transmission towers are usually performed by considering only ground motion uncertainty while ignoring structural uncertainty; consequently, the performance evaluation and failure prediction may be inaccurate. In this context, the present study numerically investigates the seismic responses and failure mechanism of transmission towers by considering multiple sources of uncertainty. To this end, an existing transmission tower is chosen, and the corresponding three-dimensional finite element model is created in ABAQUS software. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the relative importance of the uncertain parameters in the seismic responses of transmission towers. The numerical results indicate that the impacts of the structural damping ratio, elastic modulus and yield strength on the seismic responses of the transmission tower are relatively large. Subsequently, a set of 20 uncertainty models are established based on random samples of various parameter combinations generated by the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. An uncertainty analysis is performed for these uncertainty models to clarify the impacts of uncertain structural factors on the seismic responses and failure mechanism (ultimate bearing capacity and failure path). The numerical results show that structural uncertainty has a significant influence on the seismic responses and failure mechanism of transmission towers; different possible failure paths exist for the uncertainty models, whereas only one exists for the deterministic model, and the ultimate bearing capacity of transmission towers is more sensitive to the variation in material parameters than that in geometrical parameters. This research is expected to provide an in-depth understanding of the influence of structural uncertainty on the seismic demand assessment of transmission towers.

Breast Density and Risk of Breast Cancer in Asian Women: A Meta-analysis of Observational Studies

  • Bae, Jong-Myon;Kim, Eun Hee
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.49 no.6
    • /
    • pp.367-375
    • /
    • 2016
  • Objectives: The established theory that breast density is an independent predictor of breast cancer risk is based on studies targeting white women in the West. More Asian women than Western women have dense breasts, but the incidence of breast cancer is lower among Asian women. This meta-analysis investigated the association between breast density in mammography and breast cancer risk in Asian women. Methods: PubMed and Scopus were searched, and the final date of publication was set as December 31, 2015. The effect size in each article was calculated using the interval-collapse method. Summary effect sizes (sESs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by conducting a meta-analysis applying a random effect model. To investigate the dose-response relationship, random effect dose-response meta-regression (RE-DRMR) was conducted. Results: Six analytical epidemiology studies in total were selected, including one cohort study and five case-control studies. A total of 17 datasets were constructed by type of breast density index and menopausal status. In analyzing the subgroups of premenopausal vs. postmenopausal women, the percent density (PD) index was confirmed to be associated with a significantly elevated risk for breast cancer (sES, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.52 to 3.21; $I^2=50.0%$). The RE-DRMR results showed that the risk of breast cancer increased 1.73 times for each 25% increase in PD in postmenopausal women (95% CI, 1.20 to 2.47). Conclusions: In Asian women, breast cancer risk increased with breast density measured using the PD index, regardless of menopausal status. We propose the further development of a breast cancer risk prediction model based on the application of PD in Asian women.

Implementation of Barcelona Basic Model into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D (TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D의 Barcelona Basic Model 해석 모듈 개발)

  • Lee, Changsoo;Lee, Jaewon;Kim, Minseop;Kim, Geon Young
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.30 no.1
    • /
    • pp.39-62
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this study, Barcelona Basic Model (BBM) was implemented into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D for the numerical analysis of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) behavior of unsaturated soils and the prediction of long-term behaviors. Similar to the methodology described in a previous study for the implementation of BBM into TOUGH-FLAC, the User Defined Model (UDM) of FLAC based on the Modified Cam Clay Model (MCCM) and the FISH function of FLAC3D were used to extend the existing MCCM module in FLAC3D for the implementation of BBM into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D. In the developed BBM module in TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D, the plastic strains due to change in suction increase (SI) in addition to mean effective stress are calculated. In addition to loading-collapse (LC) yield surface, suction increase (SI) yield surface is changed by hardening rules in the developed BBM module. Several numerical simulations were conducted to verify and validate the implementation of BBM: using an example presented in the FLAC3D manual for the standard MCCM, simulation results using COMSOL, and experimental data presented in SKB Reports. In addition, the developed BBM analysis module was validated by simultaneously performing a series of modeling tests that were performed for the validation of the Quick tools developed for the purpose of effectively deriving BBM parameters, and by comparing the Quick tools and Code_Bright results reported in a previous study.

Uniform Hazard Spectrum for Seismic Design of Fire Protection Facilities (소방시설의 내진설계를 위한 등재해도 스펙트럼)

  • Kim, Jun-Kyoung;Jeong, Keesin
    • Fire Science and Engineering
    • /
    • v.31 no.1
    • /
    • pp.26-35
    • /
    • 2017
  • Since the Northridge earthquake (1994) and Kobe earthquake (1995), the concept of performance-based design has been actively introduced to design major structures and buildings. Recently, the seismic design code was established for fire protection facilities. Therefore, the important fire protection facilities should be designed and constructed according to the seismic design code. Accordingly, uniform hazard spectra (UHS), with annual exceedance probabilities, corresponding to the performance level, such as operational, immediate occupancy, life safety, and collapse prevention, are required for performance-based design. Using the method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the uniform hazard spectra for 5 major cities in Korea with a recurrence period of 500, 1,000, and 2,500 years corresponding to frequencies of (0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0)Hz and PGA, were analyzed. The expert panel was comprised of 10 members in seismology and tectonics. The ground motion prediction equations and several seismo tectonic models suggested by 10 expert panel members in seismology and tectonics were used as the input data for uniform hazard spectrum analysis. According to sensitivity analysis, the parameter of spectral ground motion prediction equations has a greater impact on the seismic hazard than seismotectonic models. The resulting uniform hazard spectra showed maximum values of the seismic hazard at a frequency of 10Hz and also showed the shape characteristics, which are similar to previous studies and related technical guides for nuclear facilities.

Fire Resistance Performance of High Strength Concrete with 4 Deformation Factors (4변형 인자에 의한 고강도콘크리트의 내화성능 평가)

  • Lee, Tae Gyu
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
    • /
    • v.16 no.5
    • /
    • pp.112-120
    • /
    • 2012
  • A numerical model considering the internal vaporization and the creep effect, in the form of a analytical program, for tracing the behavior of high strength concrete(HSC) members exposed to fire is presented. The two stages, i.e., spalling procedure and fire resistance time, associated with the thermal, moisture flow, creep and structural analysis, for the prediction of fire resistance behavior are explained. The use of the analytical program for tracing the response of HSC member from the initial pre-loading stage to collapse, due to fire, is demonstrated. Moisture evaporates, when concrete is exposed to fire, not only at concrete surface but also at inside the concrete to adjust the equilibrium and transfer properties of moisture. Finite element method is employed to facilitate the moisture diffusion analysis for any position of member, so that the prediction method of the moisture distribution inside the concrete members at fire is developed. The validity of the numerical model used in this program is established by comparing the predictions from this program with results from others fire resistance tests. The analytical program can be used to predict the fire resistance of HSC members for any value of the significant parameters, such as load, sectional dimensions, member length, and concrete strength.

Dynamic Characteristics of Reinforced concrete axisymmetric shell with shape imperfection (형상불완전을 갖는 철근 콘크리트 축대칭 쉘의 동적 특성)

  • 조진구
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.42 no.5
    • /
    • pp.151-159
    • /
    • 2000
  • Dynamic loading of structures often causes excursions of stresses will into the inelastic range and the influence of geometry changes on the response is also significant in may cases. In general , the shell structures designed according to quasi-Static analysis may collapse under condition of dynamic loading. Therefore, for a more realistic prediction on the lad carrying capacity of these shell. both material and geometric nonlinear effects should be considered. In this study , the material nonlinearity effect on the dynamic response is formulated by the elasto-viscoplastic model highly corresponding to the real behavior of the material. Also, the geometrically nonlinear behavior is taken into account using a Total Lagrangian formulation. the reinforcing bars are modeled by the equivalent steel layer at the location of reinforcements, and Von Mises yield criteria is adopted for the steel layer behavior. Also, Drucker-Prager yield criteria is applied for the behavior of concrete. the shape imperfection of dome is assumed as 'dimple type' which can be expressed Wd1=Wd0(1-(r-a)m)n while the shape imperfection of wall is assumed as sinusoidal curve which is Wwi =Wwo sin(n $\pi$y/l). In numerical test, three cases of shape imperfection of 0.0 -5.0cm(opposite direction to loading ; inner shape imperfection)and 5cm (direction to loading : outward shape imperfection) and thickness of steel layer determined by steel ratio of 0,3, and 5% were analyzed. The effect of shape imperfection and steel ratio and behavior characteristics of perfect shape shell and imperfect shape shell are identified through analysis of above mentioned numerical test. Dynamic behaviors of dome and wall according toe combination of shape imperfection and steel ratio are also discussed in this paper.

  • PDF