• Advances in Computational Design
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.121-131
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• 2017

Collapse was one of the typical common geological hazards during the construction of tunnels. The risk assessment of collapse was an effective way to ensure the safety of tunnels. We established a prediction model of collapse based on Bayesian Network. 76 large or medium collapses in China were analyzed. The variable set and range of the model were determined according to the statistics. A collapse prediction software was developed and its veracity was also evaluated. At last the software was used to predict tunnel collapses. It effectively evaded the disaster. Establishing the platform can be subsequent perfect. The platform can also be applied to the risk assessment of other tunnel engineering.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제30권5호
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• pp.413-422
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• 2022

TBM is widely used in the construction of various underground projects in the current world, and has the unique advantages that cannot be compared with traditional excavation methods. However, due to the high cost of TBM, the damage is even greater when geological disasters such as collapse occur during excavation. At present, there is still a shortage of research on various types of risk prediction of TBM tunnel, and accurate and reliable risk prediction model is an important theoretical basis for timely risk avoidance during construction. In this paper, a prediction model is proposed to evaluate the risk level of tunnel collapse by establishing a reasonable risk index system, using analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight, and using the normal cloud model theory. At the same time, the traditional analytic hierarchy process is improved and optimized to ensure the objectivity of the weight values of the indicators in the prediction process, and the qualitative indicators are quantified so that they can directly participate in the process of risk prediction calculation. Through the practical engineering application, the feasibility and accuracy of the method are verified, and further optimization can be analyzed and discussed.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제29권8호
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• pp.1070-1077
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• 2005

The $40\%$ of wall thickness criterion which has been used as a plugging rule is applicable only to a single cracked steam generator tubes. In the previous studies performed by authors, several failure prediction models were introduced to estimate the plastic collapse pressures of steam generator tubes containing collinear or parallel two adjacent axial through-wall cracks. The objective of this study is to examine the failure prediction models and propose optimum ones for non-aligned two axial through-wall cracks in steam generator tubes. In order to determine the optimum ones, a series of plastic collapse tests and finite element analyses were carried out for steam generator tubes with two machined non-aligned axial through-wall cracks. Thereby, either the plastic zone contact model or COD based model was selected as the optimum one according to axial distance between two clacks. Finally, the optimum failure prediction model was used to demonstrate the conservatism of flaw characterization rules for various multiple flaws according to ASME code.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제36권5호
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• pp.441-453
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• 2024

Sinkhole subsidence and collapse is a common geohazard often formed in karst areas such as the state of Florida, United States of America. To predict the sinkhole occurrence, we need to understand the formation mechanism of sinkhole and its karst hydrogeology. For this purpose, investigating the factors affecting sinkholes is an essential and important step. The main objectives of the presenting study are (1) the development of a machine learning (ML)-based model, namely C5.0 decision tree (C5.0 DT), for the prediction of sinkhole susceptibility, which accounts for sinkhole/subsidence inventory and sinkhole contributing factors (e.g., geological/hydrogeological) and (2) the construction of a regional-scale sinkhole susceptibility map. The study area is east central Florida (ECF) where a cover-collapse type is commonly reported. The C5.0 DT algorithm was used to account for twelve (12) identified hydrogeological factors. In this study, a total of 1,113 sinkholes in ECF were identified and the dataset was then randomly divided into 70% and 30% subsets for training and testing, respectively. The performance of the sinkhole susceptibility model was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, particularly the area under the curve (AUC). The C5.0 model showed a high prediction accuracy of 83.52%. It is concluded that a decision tree is a promising tool and classifier for spatial prediction of karst sinkholes and subsidence in the ECF area.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제28권11호
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• pp.1813-1821
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• 2004

Until now, the 40% of wall thickness criterion, which is generally used for the plugging of steam generator tubes, has been applied only to a single cracked geometry. In the previous study by the authors, a total number of 9 local failure prediction models were introduced to estimate the coalescence load of two collinear through-wall cracks and, then, the reaction force model and plastic zone contact model were selected as the optimum ones. The objective of this study is to estimate the coalescence load of two collinear through-wall cracks in steam generator tube by using the optimum local failure prediction models. In order to investigate the applicability of the optimum local failure prediction models, a series of plastic collapse tests and corresponding finite element analyses for two collinear through-wall cracks in steam generator tube were carried out. Thereby, the applicability of the optimum local failure prediction models was verified and, finally, a coalescence evaluation diagram which can be used to determine whether the adjacent cracks detected by NDE coalesce or not has been developed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제3권3_4호
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• pp.473-494
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• 2012

The capacity of pipelines to resist collapse under external pressure and bending moment is a major aspect of deepwater pipeline design. Existing design codes present interaction equations that quantify pipeline capacities under such loadings, although reasonably accurate, are based on empirical data fitting of the bending strain, and assumed simplistic interaction with external pressure collapse. The rational model for collapse of deepwater pipelines, which are relatively thick with a diameter-to-thickness ratio less than 40, provides a unique theoretical basis since it is derived from first principles such as force equilibrium and compatibility equations. This paper presents the rational model methodology and compares predicted results and recently published full scale experimental data on the subject. Predictive capabilities of the rational model are shown to be excellent. The methodology is extended for the problem of pipeline collapse under point load, longitudinal bending and external pressure. Due to its rational derivation and excellent prediction capabilities, it is recommended that design codes adopt the rational model methodology.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2003년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.1186-1191
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• 2003

The 40% of wall criterion, which is generally used for the plugging of steam generator tubes, may be applied only to a single crack. In the previous study, a total of 9 failure models were introduced to estimate the local failure of the ligament between cracks and the optimum coalescence model of multiple collinear cracks was determined among these models. It is, however, known that parallel axial cracks are more frequently detected during an in-service inspection than collinear axial cracks. The objective of this study is to determine the plastic collapse model which can be applied to the steam generator tube containing two parallel axial through-wall cracks. Nine previously proposed local failure models were selected as the candidates. Subsequently interaction effects between two adjacent cracks were evaluated to screen them. Plastic collapse tests for the plate with two parallel through-wall cracks and finite element analyses were performed for the determination of the optimum plastic collapse model. By comparing the test results with the prediction results obtained from the candidate models, a plastic zone contact model was selected as an optimum model.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.316-326
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• 2004

The $40\%$ of wall criterion, which is generally used for the plugging of steam generator tubes, is applied only to a single crack. In a previous study, a total number of 9 failure models were proposed to estimate the local failure of the ligament between cracks, and the optimum coalescence model of multiple collinear cracks was determined among these models. It is, however known that parallel axial cracks are more frequently detected than collinear axial cracks during an in-service inspection. The objective of this study is to determine the plastic collapse model that can be applied to steam generator tubes containing two parallel axial through-wall cracks. Three previously proposed local failure models were selected as the candidates. Subsequently, the interaction effects between two adjacent cracks were evaluated to screen them. Plastic collapse tests for the plate with two parallel through-wall cracks and finite element analyses were performed to determine the optimum plastic collapse model. By comparing the test results with the prediction results obtained from the candidate models, a COD base model was selected as an optimum model.

• 국제초고층학회논문집
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• 제1권3호
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• pp.229-235
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• 2012

In this paper the progressive collapse potential of building structures designed for real construction projects were evaluated based on arbitrary column removal scenario using various alternate path methods specified in the GSA guidelines. The analysis model structures are a 22-story reinforced concrete moment frames with core wall building and a 44-story interior concrete core and exterior steel diagrid structure. The progressive collapse resisting capacities of the model structures were evaluated using the linear static, nonlinear static, and nonlinear dynamic analyses. The linear static analysis results showed that progressive collapse occurred in the 22-story model structure when an interior column was removed. However the structure turned out to be safe according to the nonlinear static and dynamic analyses. Similar results were observed in the 44-story diagrid structure. Based on the analysis results, it was concluded that, compared with nonlinear analysis procedures, the linear static method is conservative in the prediction of progressive collapse resisting capacity of building structure based on arbitrary column removal scenario.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제62권3호
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• pp.95-107
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• 2020

The failures of the agricultural reservoirs that most have more than 50 years, have increased due to the abnormal weather and localized heavy rains. There are many studies on the prediction of damage from reservoir collapse, however, these referenced studies focused on evaluating reservoir collapse as single unit and applyed to one and two dimensional hydrodynamic model to identify the fluid flow. This study is to estimate failure probability of spillway, sliding, bearing capacity and overflowing targeting small and medium scale agricultural reservoirs. In addition, we calculate failure probability by complex mode. Moreover, we predict downstream flood damage by reservoir failure applying three dimensional hydrodynamic model. When the reservoir destroyed, the results are as follows; (1) the flow of fluid proceeds to same stream direction and to a lower slope by potential and kinetic energy; (2) The predicted damage in downstream is evaluated that damage due to building destruction is the highest.