• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction model for wind speed

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A Study of Aerodynamic Analysis for the Wind Turbine Rotor Blade using a general CFD code (풍력 발전기용 블레이드 공력해석에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Gyoo;Kim, Jin-Bum;Yeo, Chang-Ho;Kim, Tae-Woo;Kweon, Ki-Yeoung;Oh, Si-Deok
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.06a
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    • pp.516-520
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    • 2009
  • This study describes aerodynamic characteristics for the HAWT (Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine) rotor blade using general CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) code. The boundary conditions for analysis are validated with the experimental result by the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)/NASA Ames wind tunnel test for S809 airfoil. In the case of wind turbine rotor blade, complex phenomena are appeared such as flow separation and re-attachment. Those are handled by using a commercial flow analysis tool. The 2-equation k-$\omega$ SST turbulence model and transition model appear to be well suited for the prediction. The 3-dimensional phenomena in the HAWT rotor blade is simulated by a commercial 3-D aerodynamic analysis tool. Tip vortex geometry and Radial direction flows along the blade are checked by the analysis.

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Design and Experimental Validation of a Digital Predictive Controller for Variable-Speed Wind Turbine Systems

  • Babes, Badreddine;Rahmani, Lazhar;Chaoui, Abdelmadjid;Hamouda, Noureddine
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.232-241
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    • 2017
  • Advanced control algorithms must be used to make wind power generation truly cost effective and reliable. In this study, we develop a new and simple control scheme that employs model predictive control (MPC), which is used in permanent magnet synchronous generators and grid-connected inverters. The proposed control law is based on two points, namely, MPC-based torque-current control loop is used for the generator-side converter to reach the maximum power point of the wind turbine, and MPC-based direct power control loop is used for the grid-side converter to satisfy the grid code and help improve system stability. Moreover, a simple prediction scheme is developed for the direct-drive wind energy conversion system (WECS) to reduce the computation burden for real-time applications. A small-scale WECS laboratory prototype is built and evaluated to verify the validity of the developed control methods. Acceptable results are obtained from the real-time implementation of the proposed MPC methods for WECS.

A Study of Machine Learning Model for Prediction of Swelling Waves Occurrence on East Sea (동해안 너울성 파도 예측을 위한 머신러닝 모델 연구)

  • Kang, Donghoon;Oh, Sejong
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Information Technology
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, damage and loss of life and property have been occurred frequently due to swelling waves in the East Sea. Swelling waves are not easy to predict because they are caused by various factors. In this research, we build a model for predicting the swelling waves occurrence in the East Coast of Korea using machine learning technique. We collect historical data of unloading interruption in the Pohang Port, and collect air pressure, wind speed, direction, water temperature data of the offshore Pohang Port. We select important variables for prediction, and test various machine learning prediction algorithms. As a result, tide level, water temperature, and air pressure were selected, and Random Forest model produced best performance. We confirm that Random Forest model shows best performance and it produces 88.86% of accuracy

A simple data assimilation method to improve atmospheric dispersion based on Lagrangian puff model

  • Li, Ke;Chen, Weihua;Liang, Manchun;Zhou, Jianqiu;Wang, Yunfu;He, Shuijun;Yang, Jie;Yang, Dandan;Shen, Hongmin;Wang, Xiangwei
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.2377-2386
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    • 2021
  • To model the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides released from nuclear accident is very important for nuclear emergency. But the uncertainty of model parameters, such as source term and meteorological data, may significantly affect the prediction accuracy. Data assimilation (DA) is usually used to improve the model prediction with the measurements. The paper proposed a parameter bias transformation method combined with Lagrangian puff model to perform DA. The method uses the transformation of coordinates to approximate the effect of parameters bias. The uncertainty of four model parameters is considered in the paper: release rate, wind speed, wind direction and plume height. And particle swarm optimization is used for searching the optimal parameters. Twin experiment and Kincaid experiment are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can effectively increase the reliability of model prediction and estimate the parameters. It has the advantage of clear concept and simple calculation. It will be useful for improving the result of atmospheric dispersion model at the early stage of nuclear emergency.

Study of estimated model of drift through real ship (실선에 의한 표류 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • Chang-Heon LEE;Kwang-Il KIM;Sang-Lok YOO;Min-Son KIM;Seung-Hun HAN
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2024
  • In order to present a predictive drift model, Jeju National University's training ship was tested for about 11 hours and 40 minutes, and 81 samples that selected one of the entire samples at ten-minute intervals were subjected to regression analysis after verifying outliers and influence points. In the outlier and influence point analysis, although there is a part where the wind direction exceeds 1 in the DFBETAS (difference in Betas) value, the CV (cumulative variable) value is 6%, close to 1. Therefore, it was judged that there would be no problem in conducting multiple regression analyses on samples. The standard regression coefficient showed how much current and wind affect the dependent variable. It showed that current speed and direction were the most important variables for drift speed and direction, with values of 47.1% and 58.1%, respectively. The analysis showed that the statistical values indicated the fit of the model at the significance level of 0.05 for multiple regression analysis. The multiple correlation coefficients indicating the degree of influence on the dependent variable were 83.2% and 89.0%, respectively. The determination of coefficients were 69.3% and 79.3%, and the adjusted determination of coefficients were 67.6% and 78.3%, respectively. In this study, a more quantitative prediction model will be presented because it is performed after identifying outliers and influence points of sample data before multiple regression analysis. Therefore, many studies will be active in the future by combining them.

A Study on the Applcation of Small Wind Power System using Meteorological Simulation Data in Pusan (기상수치모의 자료를 이용한 부산지역의 소형풍력발전 시스템 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, KwiOk;Lee, KangYeol;Kang, Dongbae;Park, Changhyoun;Jung, Woo-Sik
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1085-1093
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    • 2014
  • We investigate the amount of potential electricity energy generated by wind power in Busan metropolitan area, using the mesoscale meteorological model WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting), combined with small wind power generators. The WRF modeling has successfully simulated meteorological characteristics over the urban areas, and showed statistical significant to predict the amount of wind energy generation. The highest amount of wind power energy has been predicted at the coastal area, followed by at riverbank and upland, depending on predicted spatial distributions of wind speed. The electricity energy prediction method in this study is expected to be used for plans of wind farm constructions or the power supplies.

Investigating the performance of different decomposition methods in rainfall prediction from LightGBM algorithm

  • Narimani, Roya;Jun, Changhyun;Nezhad, Somayeh Moghimi;Parisouj, Peiman
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.150-150
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the roles of decomposition methods on high accuracy in daily rainfall prediction from light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithm. Here, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) methods were considered to decompose and reconstruct input time series into trend terms, fluctuating terms, and noise components. The decomposed time series from EMD and SSA methods were used as input data for LightGBM algorithm in two hybrid models, including empirical mode-based light gradient boosting machine (EMDGBM) and singular spectrum analysis-based light gradient boosting machine (SSAGBM), respectively. A total of four parameters (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall) at a daily scale from 2003 to 2017 is used as input data for daily rainfall prediction. As results from statistical performance indicators, it indicates that the SSAGBM model shows a better performance than the EMDGBM model and the original LightGBM algorithm with no decomposition methods. It represents that the accuracy of LightGBM algorithm in rainfall prediction was improved with the SSA method when using multivariate dataset.

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Impact of Reconstructed Gridded Product of Global Wind/Wind-stress Field derived by Satellite Scatterometer Data

  • Koyama, Makoto;Kutsuwada, Kunio;Morimoto, Naoki
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.309-312
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    • 2008
  • The advent of high resolution products of surface wind and temperature derived by satellite data has permitted us to investigate ocean and atmosphere interaction studies in detail. Especially the Kuroshio extension region of the western North Pacific is considered to be a key area for such studies. We have constructed gridded products of surface wind/wind stress over the world ocean using satellite scatterometer (Qscat/SeaWinds), available as the Japanese Ocean Flux data sets with Use of Remote sensing Observation (J-OFURO). Using new data based on improved algorithm which have been recently delivered, we are reconstructing gridded product with higher spatial resolution. Intercomparison of this product with the previous one reveals that there are some discrepancies between them in short-period and high wind-speed ranges especially in the westerly wind region. The products are validated by not only comparisons with in-situ measurement data by mooring buoys such as TAO/TRITON in the tropical Pacific and the Kuroshio Extension Observation (KEO) buoys, but also intercomparison with numerical weather prediction model (NWPM) products (the NRA-1 and 2). Our products have much smaller mean difference in the study areas than the NWPM ones, meaning higher reliability compared with the NWPM products. Using the high resolution products together with sea surface temperature (SST) data, we examine a new type of relationship between the lower atmosphere and upper ocean in the Kuroshio Extension region. It is suggested that the spatial relation between the wind speed and SST depends upon, more or less, the surrounding oceanic condition.

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Comparison of RANS, URANS, SAS and IDDES for the prediction of train crosswind characteristics

  • Xiao-Shuai Huo;Tang-Hong Liu;Zheng-Wei Chen;Wen-Hui Li;Hong-Rui Gao;Bin Xu
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.303-314
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    • 2023
  • In this study, two steady RANS turbulence models (SST k-ω and Realizable k-ε) and four unsteady turbulence models (URANS SST k-ω and Realizable k-ε, SST-SAS, and SST-IDDES) are evaluated with respect to their capacity to predict crosswind characteristics on high-speed trains (HSTs). All of the numerical simulations are compared with the wind tunnel values and LES results to ensure the accuracy of each turbulence model. Specifically, the surface pressure distributions, time-averaged aerodynamic coefficients, flow fields, and computational cost are studied to determine the suitability of different models. Results suggest that the predictions of the pressure distributions and aerodynamic forces obtained from the steady and transient RANS models are almost the same. In particular, both SAS and IDDES exhibits similar predictions with wind tunnel test and LES, therefore, the SAS model is considered an attractive alternative for IDDES or LES in the crosswind study of trains. In addition, if the computational cost needs to be significantly reduced, the RANS SST k-ω model is shown to provide relatively reasonable results for the surface pressures and aerodynamic forces. As a result, the RANS SST k-ω model might be the most appropriate option for the expensive aerodynamic optimizations of trains using machine learning (ML) techniques because it balances solution accuracy and resource consumption.

Wind-induced responses and dynamic characteristics of a super-tall building under a typhoon event

  • Hua, X.G.;Xu, K.;Wang, Y.W.;Wen, Q.;Chen, Z.Q.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.81-96
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    • 2020
  • Wind measurements were made on the Canton Tower at a height of 461 m above ground during the Typhoon Vincente, the wind-induced accelerations and displacements of the tower were recorded as well. Comparisons of measured wind parameters at upper level of atmospheric boundary layer with those adopted in wind tunnel testing were presented. The measured turbulence intensity can be smaller than the design value, indicating that the wind tunnel testing may underestimate the crosswind structural responses for certain lock-in velocity range of vortex shedding. Analyses of peak factors and power spectral density for acceleration response shows that the crosswind responses are a combination of gust-induced buffeting and vortex-induced vibrations in the certain range of wind directions. The identified modal frequencies and mode shapes from acceleration data are found to be in good agreement with existing experimental results and the prediction from the finite element model. The damping ratios increase with amplitude of vibration or equivalently wind velocity which may be attributed to aerodynamic damping. In addition, the natural frequencies determined from the measured displacement are very close to those determined from the acceleration data for the first two modes. Finally, the relation between displacement responses and wind speed/direction was investigated.