• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction error methods

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Tunnel wall convergence prediction using optimized LSTM deep neural network

  • Arsalan, Mahmoodzadeh;Mohammadreza, Taghizadeh;Adil Hussein, Mohammed;Hawkar Hashim, Ibrahim;Hanan, Samadi;Mokhtar, Mohammadi;Shima, Rashidi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.545-556
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    • 2022
  • Evaluation and optimization of tunnel wall convergence (TWC) plays a vital role in preventing potential problems during tunnel construction and utilization stage. When convergence occurs at a high rate, it can lead to significant problems such as reducing the advance rate and safety, which in turn increases operating costs. In order to design an effective solution, it is important to accurately predict the degree of TWC; this can reduce the level of concern and have a positive effect on the design. With the development of soft computing methods, the use of deep learning algorithms and neural networks in tunnel construction has expanded in recent years. The current study aims to employ the long-short-term memory (LSTM) deep neural network predictor model to predict the TWC, based on 550 data points of observed parameters developed by collecting required data from different tunnelling projects. Among the data collected during the pre-construction and construction phases of the project, 80% is randomly used to train the model and the rest is used to test the model. Several loss functions including root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to assess the performance and precision of the applied method. The results of the proposed models indicate an acceptable and reliable accuracy. In fact, the results show that the predicted values are in good agreement with the observed actual data. The proposed model can be considered for use in similar ground and tunneling conditions. It is important to note that this work has the potential to reduce the tunneling uncertainties significantly and make deep learning a valuable tool for planning tunnels.

Application into Assessment of Liquefaction Hazard and Geotechnical Vulnerability During Earthquake with High-Precision Spatial-Ground Model for a City Development Area (도시개발 영역 고정밀 공간지반모델의 지진 시 액상화 재해 및 지반 취약성 평가 활용)

  • Kim, Han-Saem;Sun, Chang-Guk;Ha, Ik-Soo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2023
  • This study proposes a methodology for assessing seismic liquefaction hazard by implementing high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) ground models with high-density/high-precision site investigation data acquired in an area of interest, which would be linked to geotechnical numerical analysis tools. It is possible to estimate the vulnerability of earthquake-induced geotechnical phenomena (ground motion amplification, liquefaction, landslide, etc.) and their triggering complex disasters across an area for urban development with several stages of high-density datasets. In this study, the spatial-ground models for city development were built with a 3D high-precision grid of 5 m × 5 m × 1 m by applying geostatistic methods. Finally, after comparing each prediction error, the geotechnical model from the Gaussian sequential simulation is selected to assess earthquake-induced geotechnical hazards. In particular, with seven independent input earthquake motions, liquefaction analysis with finite element analyses and hazard mappings with LPI and LSN are performed reliably based on the spatial geotechnical models in the study area. Furthermore, various phenomena and parameters, including settlement in the city planning area, are assessed in terms of geotechnical vulnerability also based on the high-resolution spatial-ground modeling. This case study on the high-precision 3D ground model-based zonations in the area of interest verifies the usefulness in assessing spatially earthquake-induced hazards and geotechnical vulnerability and their decision-making support.

Deep learning method for compressive strength prediction for lightweight concrete

  • Yaser A. Nanehkaran;Mohammad Azarafza;Tolga Pusatli;Masoud Hajialilue Bonab;Arash Esmatkhah Irani;Mehdi Kouhdarag;Junde Chen;Reza Derakhshani
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.327-337
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    • 2023
  • Concrete is the most widely used building material, with various types including high- and ultra-high-strength, reinforced, normal, and lightweight concretes. However, accurately predicting concrete properties is challenging due to the geotechnical design code's requirement for specific characteristics. To overcome this issue, researchers have turned to new technologies like machine learning to develop proper methodologies for concrete specification. In this study, we propose a highly accurate deep learning-based predictive model to investigate the compressive strength (UCS) of lightweight concrete with natural aggregates (pumice). Our model was implemented on a database containing 249 experimental records and revealed that water, cement, water-cement ratio, fine-coarse aggregate, aggregate substitution rate, fine aggregate replacement, and superplasticizer are the most influential covariates on UCS. To validate our model, we trained and tested it on random subsets of the database, and its performance was evaluated using a confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) overall accuracy. The proposed model was compared with widely known machine learning methods such as MLP, SVM, and DT classifiers to assess its capability. In addition, the model was tested on 25 laboratory UCS tests to evaluate its predictability. Our findings showed that the proposed model achieved the highest accuracy (accuracy=0.97, precision=0.97) and the lowest error rate with a high learning rate (R2=0.914), as confirmed by ROC (AUC=0.971), which is higher than other classifiers. Therefore, the proposed method demonstrates a high level of performance and capability for UCS predictions.

Strength and toughness prediction of slurry infiltrated fibrous concrete using multilinear regression

  • Shelorkar, Ajay P.;Jadhao, Pradip D.
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.123-132
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    • 2022
  • This paper aims to adapt Multilinear regression (MLR) to predict the strength and toughness of SIFCON containing various pozzolanic materials. Slurry Infiltrated Fibrous Concrete (SIFCON) is one of the most common terms used in concrete manufacturing, known for its benefits such as high ductility, toughness and high ultimate strength. Assessment of compressive strength (CS.), flexural strength (F.S.), splitting tensile strength (STS), dynamic elasticity modulus (DME) and impact energy (I.E.) using the experimental approach is too costly. It is time-consuming, and a slight error can lead to a repeat of the test and, to solve this, alternative methods are used to predict the strength and toughness properties of SIFCON. In the present study, the experimentally investigated SIFCON data about various mix proportions are used to predict the strength and toughness properties using regression analysis-multilinear regression (MLR) models. The input parameters used in regression models are cement, fibre, fly ash, Metakaolin, fine aggregate, blast furnace slag, bottom ash, water-cement ratio, and the strength and toughness properties of SIFCON at 28 days is the output parameter. The models are developed and validated using data obtained from the experimental investigation. The investigations were done on 36 SIFCON mixes, and specimens were cast and tested after 28 days of curing. The MLR model yields correlation between predicted and actual values of the compressive strength (C.S.), flexural strength, splitting tensile strength, dynamic modulus of elasticity and impact energy. R-squared values for the relationship between observed and predicted compressive strength are 0.9548, flexural strength 0.9058, split tensile strength 0.9047, dynamic modulus of elasticity 0.8611 for impact energy 0.8366. This examination shows that the MLR model can predict the strength and toughness properties of SIFCON.

Enhancing Medium-Range Forecast Accuracy of Temperature and Relative Humidity over South Korea using Minimum Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) Statistical Correction Technique (연속 순위 확률 점수를 활용한 통합 앙상블 모델에 대한 기온 및 습도 후처리 모델 개발)

  • Hyejeong Bok;Junsu Kim;Yeon-Hee Kim;Eunju Cho;Seungbum Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2024
  • The Korea Meteorological Administration has improved medium-range weather forecasts by implementing post-processing methods to minimize numerical model errors. In this study, we employ a statistical correction technique known as the minimum continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to refine medium-range forecast guidance. This technique quantifies the similarity between the predicted values and the observed cumulative distribution function of the Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System for Global (UM EPSG). We evaluated the performance of the medium-range forecast guidance for surface air temperature and relative humidity, noting significant enhancements in seasonal bias and root mean squared error compared to observations. Notably, compared to the existing the medium-range forecast guidance, temperature forecasts exhibit 17.5% improvement in summer and 21.5% improvement in winter. Humidity forecasts also show 12% improvement in summer and 23% improvement in winter. The results indicate that utilizing the minimum CRPS for medium-range forecast guidance provide more reliable and improved performance than UM EPSG.

Autoencoder Based N-Segmentation Frequency Domain Anomaly Detection for Optimization of Facility Defect Identification (설비 결함 식별 최적화를 위한 오토인코더 기반 N 분할 주파수 영역 이상 탐지)

  • Kichang Park;Yongkwan Lee
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.130-139
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    • 2024
  • Artificial intelligence models are being used to detect facility anomalies using physics data such as vibration, current, and temperature for predictive maintenance in the manufacturing industry. Since the types of facility anomalies, such as facility defects and failures, anomaly detection methods using autoencoder-based unsupervised learning models have been mainly applied. Normal or abnormal facility conditions can be effectively classified using the reconstruction error of the autoencoder, but there is a limit to identifying facility anomalies specifically. When facility anomalies such as unbalance, misalignment, and looseness occur, the facility vibration frequency shows a pattern different from the normal state in a specific frequency range. This paper presents an N-segmentation anomaly detection method that performs anomaly detection by dividing the entire vibration frequency range into N regions. Experiments on nine kinds of anomaly data with different frequencies and amplitudes using vibration data from a compressor showed better performance when N-segmentation was applied. The proposed method helps materialize them after detecting facility anomalies.

Utilizing Visual Information for Non-contact Predicting Method of Friction Coefficient (마찰계수의 비접촉 추정을 위한 영상정보 활용방법)

  • Kim, Doo-Gyu;Kim, Ja-Young;Lee, Ji-Hong;Choi, Dong-Geol;Kweon, In-So
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.28-34
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we proposed an algorithm for utilizing visual information for non-contact predicting method of friction coefficient. Coefficient of friction is very important in driving on road and traversing over obstacle. Our algorithm is based on terrain classification for visual image. The proposed method, non-contacting approach, has advantage over other methods that extract material characteristic of road by sensors contacting road surface. This method is composed of learning group(experiment, grouping material) and predicting friction coefficient group(Bayesian classification prediction function). Every group include previous work of vision. Advantage of our algorithm before entering such terrain can be very useful for avoiding slippery areas. We make experiment on measurement of friction coefficient of terrain. This result is utilized real friction coefficient as prediction method. We show error between real friction coefficient and predicted friction coefficient for performance evaluation of our algorithm.

Adaptive In-loop Filter Method for High-efficiency Video Coding (고효율 비디오 부호화를 위한 적응적 인-루프 필터 방법)

  • Jung, Kwang-Su;Nam, Jung-Hak;Lim, Woong;Jo, Hyun-Ho;Sim, Dong-Gyu;Choi, Byeong-Doo;Cho, Dae-Sung
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we propose an adaptive in-loop filter to improve the coding efficiency. Recently, there are post-filter hint SEI and block-based adaptive filter control (BAFC) methods based on the Wiener filter which can minimize the mean square error between the input image and the decoded image in video coding standards. However, since the post-filter hint SEI is applied only to the output image, it cannot reduce the prediction errors of the subsequent frames. Because BAFC is also conducted with a deblocking filter, independently, it has a problem of high computational complexity on the encoder and decoder sides. In this paper, we propose the low-complexity adaptive in-loop filter (LCALF) which has lower computational complexity by using H.264/AVC deblocking filter, adaptively, as well as shows better performance than the conventional method. In the experimental results, the computational complexity of the proposed method is reduced about 22% than the conventional method. Furthermore, the coding efficiency of the proposed method is about 1% better than the BAFC.

A Study on Efficient AI Model Drift Detection Methods for MLOps (MLOps를 위한 효율적인 AI 모델 드리프트 탐지방안 연구)

  • Ye-eun Lee;Tae-jin Lee
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2023
  • Today, as AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology develops and its practicality increases, it is widely used in various application fields in real life. At this time, the AI model is basically learned based on various statistical properties of the learning data and then distributed to the system, but unexpected changes in the data in a rapidly changing data situation cause a decrease in the model's performance. In particular, as it becomes important to find drift signals of deployed models in order to respond to new and unknown attacks that are constantly created in the security field, the need for lifecycle management of the entire model is gradually emerging. In general, it can be detected through performance changes in the model's accuracy and error rate (loss), but there are limitations in the usage environment in that an actual label for the model prediction result is required, and the detection of the point where the actual drift occurs is uncertain. there is. This is because the model's error rate is greatly influenced by various external environmental factors, model selection and parameter settings, and new input data, so it is necessary to precisely determine when actual drift in the data occurs based only on the corresponding value. There are limits to this. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to detect when actual drift occurs through an Anomaly analysis technique based on XAI (eXplainable Artificial Intelligence). As a result of testing a classification model that detects DGA (Domain Generation Algorithm), anomaly scores were extracted through the SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations) Value of the data after distribution, and as a result, it was confirmed that efficient drift point detection was possible.

Bone Age Assessment Using Artificial Intelligence in Korean Pediatric Population: A Comparison of Deep-Learning Models Trained With Healthy Chronological and Greulich-Pyle Ages as Labels

  • Pyeong Hwa Kim;Hee Mang Yoon;Jeong Rye Kim;Jae-Yeon Hwang;Jin-Ho Choi;Jisun Hwang;Jaewon Lee;Jinkyeong Sung;Kyu-Hwan Jung;Byeonguk Bae;Ah Young Jung;Young Ah Cho;Woo Hyun Shim;Boram Bak;Jin Seong Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.11
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    • pp.1151-1163
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    • 2023
  • Objective: To develop a deep-learning-based bone age prediction model optimized for Korean children and adolescents and evaluate its feasibility by comparing it with a Greulich-Pyle-based deep-learning model. Materials and Methods: A convolutional neural network was trained to predict age according to the bone development shown on a hand radiograph (bone age) using 21036 hand radiographs of Korean children and adolescents without known bone development-affecting diseases/conditions obtained between 1998 and 2019 (median age [interquartile range {IQR}], 9 [7-12] years; male:female, 11794:9242) and their chronological ages as labels (Korean model). We constructed 2 separate external datasets consisting of Korean children and adolescents with healthy bone development (Institution 1: n = 343; median age [IQR], 10 [4-15] years; male: female, 183:160; Institution 2: n = 321; median age [IQR], 9 [5-14] years; male: female, 164:157) to test the model performance. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and proportions of bone age predictions within 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of the reference age (chronological age) were compared between the Korean model and a commercial model (VUNO Med-BoneAge version 1.1; VUNO) trained with Greulich-Pyle-based age as the label (GP-based model). Results: Compared with the GP-based model, the Korean model showed a lower RMSE (11.2 vs. 13.8 months; P = 0.004) and MAE (8.2 vs. 10.5 months; P = 0.002), a higher proportion of bone age predictions within 18 months of chronological age (88.3% vs. 82.2%; P = 0.031) for Institution 1, and a lower MAE (9.5 vs. 11.0 months; P = 0.022) and higher proportion of bone age predictions within 6 months (44.5% vs. 36.4%; P = 0.044) for Institution 2. Conclusion: The Korean model trained using the chronological ages of Korean children and adolescents without known bone development-affecting diseases/conditions as labels performed better in bone age assessment than the GP-based model in the Korean pediatric population. Further validation is required to confirm its accuracy.