• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction equation.

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Estimation of Annual Energy Production Based on Regression Measure-Correlative-Predict at Handong, the Northeastern Jeju Island (제주도 북동부 한동지역의 MCP 회귀모델식을 적용한 AEP계산에 대한 연구)

  • Ko, Jung-Woo;Moon, Seo-Jeong;Lee, Byung-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.545-550
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    • 2012
  • Wind resource assessment is necessary when designing wind farm. To get the assessment, we must use a long term(20 years) observed wind data but it is so hard. so that we usually measured more than a year on the planned site. From the wind data, we can calculate wind energy related with the wind farm site. However, it calculate wind energy to collect the long term data from Met-mast(Meteorology Mast) station on the site since the Met-mast is unstable from strong wind such as Typhoon or storm surge which is Non-periodic. To solve the lack of the long term data of the site, we usually derive new data from the long term observed data of AWS(Automatic Weather Station) around the wind farm area using mathematical interpolation method. The interpolation method is called MCP(Measure-Correlative-Predict). In this study, based on the MCP Regression Model proposed by us, we estimated the wind energy at Handong site using AEP(Annual Energy Production) from Gujwa AWS data in Jeju. The calculated wind energy at Handong was shown a good agreement between the predicted and the measured results based on the linear regression MCP. Short term AEP was about 7,475MW/year. Long term AEP was about 7,205MW/year. it showed an 3.6% of annual prediction different. It represents difference of 271MW in annual energy production. In comparison with 20years, it shows difference of 5,420MW, and this is about 9 months of energy production. From the results, we found that the proposed linear regression MCP method was very reasonable to estimate the wind resource of wind farm.

The Study of the Effects of the Enterprise Mobile Social Network Service on User Satisfaction and the Continuous Use Intention (기업 모바일 소셜네트워크서비스 특성요인이 사용자 만족과 지속적 사용의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Joon-Hee;Ha, Kyu-Soo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.135-148
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    • 2012
  • This work is intended to investigate how the factors of enterprise mobile SNS affect user satisfaction and continuous use intention through technology acceptance model proposed by Davis. To achieve the purpose, this researcher explored Information Systems Success model proposed by DeLone & McLean, Technology Acceptance Model proposed by Davis, and Model after Acceptance, and on the basis of the investigation, performed a study. For the data of this work, 9 enterprises, each of which has more than 100 employees and is located in Seoul, were chosen, and a questionnaire survey was conducted on their 276 employees who experienced enterprise mobile SNS. As a data collection tool, a structured self-administered questionnaire was used. For data analysis, SPSS 18.0 and AMOS 18.0 were used for applying Structural Equation modelling. According to the results of this work, three factors of enterprise mobile SNS-systematic factor (system quality, information quality, and service quality), user factor (personal innovation and personal familiarity), social factor (social effects and social interaction)-affected user satisfaction and continuous use intention through perceived availability, perceived easiness, and perceived enjoyment. Also, it was found that the direction of effects matched a theoretical prediction. And, it was revealed that the decision variables and mediating variables significantly affected user satisfaction and continuous use intention. Theoretical and practical meanings were discussed for the study result, and some suggestions were made for the issues of this work and future studies.

A Study on Practicalization of Low Vibration New KINRECKER-II (미진동 발파용 New KINECKER-II 실용화에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Seung-Ho;Park, Hee-Won;Lim, Jung-Hyuk;Lee, Chang-Yeop;Ahn, Bong-Do;Kang, Dae-Woo;Lee, Ha-Young
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2017
  • Mountain and hill areas occupy by more than 70% in South Korea and Rock drilling should be applied in order to reduce noisy & vibration from massive civil engineering business such as road expansion, high-way construction, subway construction and construction of site renovation such as a newly-built & re-development of apartment, newly-built of high-rising building in downtown area. As Blasting noise & vibration such as vibration, noise, fly rock etc caused by blasting operation from large small scale construction occurs, neighboring residents who demand the compensation file a civil complaint so that the business reach a deadlock. As the excavation method for these areas, There are blasting of micro-vibration, mechanical excavation method(Rock splitter, Breaker etc), similar blasting method(plasma, gel fragmentation etc) to date. In this study, we are trying to find the feature & performance which get improved economic feasibility & construct ability through improving sympathetic detonation of New KINECKER-I used in blasting of micro-vibration & formulation and would provide convenience for use by introducing standard blasting pattern & construction method. Also, checked and confirmed all the blasting with connecting cap has been cleary detonated.

A Study on the Undrained Deformation Characteristics of Remoulded Marine Clay (재성형(再成形)한 해성점토(海成粘土)의 비배수(非排水) 변형특성(變形特性)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Yoon, Hyun Jung;Kang, Yea Mook;Cho, Seong Seup
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.309-323
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    • 1985
  • The Paper describes the observed behaviour in the undrained triaxial condition of marine clays remoulded at various different levels of factors, to find out the effects of restricted factors on the stress-strain characteristics. The conventional triaxial compression tests $({\sigma}1>{\sigma}2={\sigma}3)$ were carried out on the 50mm in diameter and 100mm long cylindrical specimens of Gun-san bay mud under controlled various moisture content, density, axial strain rate and passing on No. 200 sieve. Significant conclusions from this study are; 1. The compressible deviator stress at failure of pure marine clay was observed to increase with the decrease of moulding moisture content. 2. The compressible deviator stress at failure increased with the increasing of moulding dry density. 3. The interaction between moisture content and density on the stress-strain characteristics of marine clay was remarkedly significant, as the result of factorial experimental method. 4. The effect of axial strain rate on stress-strain behaviour was unsignificant in marine clay and but the secant moduli could be pronounced on a slight decreasing with increase of the strain rate. 5. With the increasing of the passing on No. 200 sieve, the deviator stress increased regularly. 6. The multiple regression equation could be modeled for the prediction of stress or strain and the comparison with experimental results relatively proved the accuracy.

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Prediction of Wind Damage Risk based on Estimation of Probability Distribution of Daily Maximum Wind Speed (일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법)

  • Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.130-139
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    • 2017
  • The crop damage caused by strong wind was predicted using the wind speed data available from Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). Wind speed data measured at 19 automatic weather stations in 2012 were compared with wind data available from the KMA's digital forecast. Linear regression equations were derived using the maximum value of wind speed measurements for the three-hour period prior to a given hour and the digital forecasts at the three-hour interval. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the regression equation finding the greatest value among the maximum wind speed at the three-hour interval. The estimation error for the daily maximum wind speed was expressed using normal distribution and Weibull distribution probability density function. The daily maximum wind speed was compared with the critical wind speed that could cause crop damage to determine the level of stages for wind damage, e.g., "watch" or "warning." Spatial interpolation of the regression coefficient for the maximum wind speed, the standard deviation of the estimation error at the automated weather stations, the parameters of Weibull distribution was performed. These interpolated values at the four synoptic weather stations including Suncheon, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu were used to estimate the daily maximum wind speed in 2012. The wind damage risk was determined using the critical wind speed of 10m/s under the assumption that the fruit of a pear variety Mansamgil would begin to drop at 10 m/s. The results indicated that the Weibull distribution was more effective than the normal distribution for the estimation error probability distribution for assessing wind damage risk.

The Application of a Simplified Pullout Test for High-Strength Concrete (고강도 콘크리트에 대한 간이 인발시험법 적용)

  • Ko, Hune-Bum;Jeon, Doo-Jin;Lee, Min-Jae
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2017
  • In the seventies, a number of researchers carried out experiments on pullout tests with prototype equipment, and the pullout test was certified as a reliable nondestructive testing(NDT) method for determining the strength of concrete. To estimate the strength of high-strength concrete, we propose a simplified pullout test that uses as a break-off bolt a standard 10mm bolt with a groove on the shaft, an insert nut, and a pullout instrument that includes a hydraulic oil pump without a load cell. To verify the advantages of the simplified pullout test(low cost, simplicity, and convenience), four wall specimens were tested with two levels of concrete strength, 30 MPa and 50 MPa, using a simplified pullout tester with a load cell. The pullout load and concrete compressive strength were measured every day until day 7, day 14, day 21 and day 28. It was found that the pullout load was very similar to the compressive strength. Therefore, we have verified that a simplified pullout test can be used to evaluate the in-place strength of high-strength concrete in structures. The prediction equation of the groove diameter of the break-off bolt(y) with the concrete strength(x) was derived as y=0.05x+3.79, with a coefficient of determination of 0.88 found through regression analysis.

Experimental Study on Rupturing of Artificial Flaw of Pipes for Life Prediction of Underground High Pressure Gas Pipes (지하매설 고압가스배관의 수명예측을 위한 인위결함 배관의 파열실험)

  • Lee, Kyung-eun;Kim, Jeong Hwan;Ha, Yu-jin;Kil, Seong-Hee;Jo, Young-do;Moon, Jong-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.62-71
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    • 2018
  • According to own investigation conducted by Korea Gas Safety Corporation Gas Safety Research Institute in 2017, the length of underground pipes in domestic high-pressure gas pipelines is approximately 770km, of which 84% is buried in Ulsan and Yeosu industrial complexes. In particular, 56% of underground pipelines have been in operation for more than 20 years. This suggests urgent management of buried high pressure gas pipelines. PHMSA in US and EGIG in Europe, major causes of accidents in buried gas pipelines are reported as third party damage, external corrosion and loss of pipe wall thickness. Therefore, it is important to evaluate whether the defects affect the remaining life of the pipe when defects occur in the pipe. DNV and ASME have evaluated the residual strength of pipelines through the hydraulic rupture test using pipe specimens with artifact flaws. Once the operating pressure is known through the residual strength of the pipe, the wall thickness at the point at which the pipe ruptures is calculated. If we know the accurate rate of corrosion growth, we can predict the remaining life of pipe. In the study, we carried out experiments with A53 Grade.B and A106 Grade.B, which account for 80% of domestic buried pipes. In order to modify the existing model equation, specimens with a defect depth of 80% to 90% was tested, and a formula expressing the relationship between defect and residual strength was made.

Ultrasonic Pulses Characteristics in Lightweight Fine Aggregate Concrete under Various Load Histories (하중 이력에 따른 경량 잔골재 콘크리트의 초음파 특성)

  • Yoo, Kyung-Suk;Kim, Jee-Sang;Kim, Ik-Beam
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.209-216
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    • 2014
  • One of the widely used NDT(Non-destructive techniques) is the ultrasonic pulse velocity (USPV) method, which determines the travel time of the ultrasonic pulse through the tested materials and most studies were focused on the results expressed in time domain. However, the signal of ultrasonic pulse in time domain can be transformed into frequency domain, through Fast fourier transform(FFT) to give more useful informations. This paper shows a comparison of changes in the pulse velocity and frequency domain signals of concrete for various load histories using lightweight fine aggregates. The strength prediction equation for normal concrete using USPV cannot be used to estimate lightweight fine aggregate concrete strength. The signals in frequency domain of ultrasonic pulse of lightweight fine aggregate concrete does not show any significant difference comparing with those of normal concrete. The increases in stress levels of concrete change the pulse velocities and maximum frequencies, however the apparent relationship between themselves can not be found in this experiment.

Heading date and final Leaf Number as Affected by Sowing Date and Prediction of Heading Date Based on Leaf Appearance Model in Rice (벼 파종기에 따른 출수기 및 최종 엽수 변화와 출엽 모델에 의한 출수기 예측)

  • 이충근;이변우;신진철;윤영환
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.195-201
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    • 2001
  • Sowing date experiments were carried out by employing a rice variety "Kwanganbyeo" in both field and phytotron with natural daylength. In phytotron, temperatures were controlled at daily mean of 21$^{\circ}C$ and 24$^{\circ}C$. The responses of final leaf number and beading date were analyzed in relation to daylength during photo-sensitive period (PSP). Based on the component models predicting the final leaf number and leaf appearance rate, a rice phenology model was established and verified. Days from sowing to flowering (DSF) were shortened and final number of leaves (FNL) increased as sowing dates were delayed from 25 April to 5 June in field and phytotron. The increased leaf appearance rate (LAR) and the reduced FNL, respectively, due to the higher temperature and the shorter daylength in delayed sowings in the field brought about greater shortening of DSF than in the phytotron where only FNL was reduced by shorter daylength in delayed sewings. FNL showed very close relationship with the average daylength during PSP of six-leaf stage to panicle initiation, being well fitted to the following rational function ($R^2$=0.98):(equation omitted) where D is daylength and a, b, and c are the constants that were estimated as 14.694, -0.992, and -0.068 in Kwanganbyeo, respectively. The rice phonology model, which was composed of two component models for LAR and FNL, predicted DSF very accurately. The differences between the observed and predicted DSF was less than two days in the sewing date field experiments in 1999 and 2000 of which data were not used for the model construction.struction.

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Effect of Packaging Method on the Storage Stability of Filleted Mackerel Products (포장방법이 고등어제품의 저장성에 미치는 영향)

  • Jo, Kil-Suk;Kim, Hyun-Ku;Kang, Tong-Sam;Shin, Dong-Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.6-12
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    • 1988
  • To improve the individual packaging method and extend the shelf life of mackerel (Scomber japonicus), salted and unsalted mackerel fillets were packaged in laminated plastic film bag (Nylon/PE: $20{\mu}m/40{\mu}m,\;12{\times}15$ cm) filled with $CO_2$ gas, in vacuum, and stored at O and/or $5^{\circ}C$. The other samples were packaged in plastic foam trays, overwrapped with oxygen permeable film (control), and stored at same temperature. Volatile basic nitrogen (VBN), trimethylamine (TMA), histamine (HM) and viable cell counts (VCC) were progressed with the increasing of storage time, but thiobarbituric acid (TBA) values decreased gradually after reaching at a maximum peak in 5-9 days. Judging from 4 chemical components, VBN was the most available component in quality judgement of mackerel fillets and its upper limiting content was 25 mg%. Regression equation for shelf life prediction of mackerel fillets with sensory evaluation and VBN component was determined.

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