• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.717-726
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• 2006

This study is to investigate the MAE of prediction value by collaborative filtering algorithm originated by GroupLens and improved algorithm. To decrease the MAE on the collaborative recommender system on user based, this research proposes the improved algorithm, which reduces the possibility of over estimation of active user's preference mean collaboratively using other user’s preference mean. The result shows the MAE of prediction by improved algorithm is better than original algorithm, so the active user's preference mean used in prediction formula is possibly over estimated.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.10 no.7
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• pp.3150-3170
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• 2016

In Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), logistics distribution and mobile e-commerce, the real-time, accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction has significant application value. Vehicle trajectory prediction can not only provide accurate location-based services, but also can monitor and predict traffic situation in advance, and then further recommend the optimal route for users. In this paper, firstly, we mine the double layers of hidden states of vehicle historical trajectories, and then determine the parameters of HMM (hidden Markov model) by historical data. Secondly, we adopt Viterbi algorithm to seek the double layers hidden states sequences corresponding to the just driven trajectory. Finally, we propose a new algorithm (DHMTP) for vehicle trajectory prediction based on the hidden Markov model of double layers hidden states, and predict the nearest neighbor unit of location information of the next k stages. The experimental results demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm is increased by 18.3% compared with TPMO algorithm and increased by 23.1% compared with Naive algorithm in aspect of predicting the next k phases' trajectories, especially when traffic flow is greater, such as this time from weekday morning to evening. Moreover, the time performance of DHMTP algorithm is also clearly improved compared with TPMO algorithm.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2004.11c
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• pp.301-303
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• 2004

In this work, we develop on-line traffic prediction algorithm for real-time VBR traffic. There are a number of important issues: (i) The traffic prediction algorithm should exploit the stochastic characteristics of the underlying traffic and (ii) it should quickly adapt to structural changes in underlying traffic. GOP ARIMA model effectively addresses this issues and it is used as basis in our bandwidth prediction. Our prediction model deploy Kalman filter to incorporate the prediction error for the next prediction round. We examine the performance of GOP ARIMA based prediction with linear prediction with LMS and double exponential smoothing. The proposed prediction algorithm exhibits superior performam againt the rest.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.94-99
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• 2015

Prediction algorithm of the energy storage system in accordance with the load pattern can cause economic loss in case of a failure prediction. In addition, algorithm that uses TOU(Time of Use) based on the revelation by the power electric charge which covers most simply is an inefficient operation because it is only for the purpose of reducing the peak power. In this paper, we introduced a non-prediction algorithm with a conventional TOU in order to solve this problem operating the energy storage system economic and efficient.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.145-154
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• 2015

This paper proposes an enhanced projection candidate selection algorithm to improve the performance of the existing path prediction algorithm. Various user path prediction algorithms have previously been developed, but those algorithms are inappropriate for a real-time and close user path prediction environment. To resolve this issue, a new prediction algorithm has been proposed, but several problems still remain. In particular, this algorithm should be enhanced to provide much faster processing performance. The major cause of the high processing time of the previous path prediction algorithm is the high time complexity of its projection candidate selection. Therefore, this paper proposes a new path fragment management structure and an improved projection candidate selection algorithm to improve the processing speed of the existing projection candidate selection algorithm. This paper also shows the effectiveness of the algorithm herein proposed through a comparative performance evaluation.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.1356-1362
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• 2015

The location of PV systems in distribution system has been increased as one of countermeasure for global environmental issues. As the operation efficiency of PV systems is getting decreased year by year due to the aging phenomenon and maintenance problems, the optimal algorithm for state diagnosis in PV systems is required in order to improve operation performance in PV systems. The existing output prediction algorithms considering various parameters and conditions of PV modules could have complicated calculation process and then their results may have a possibility of significant prediction error. To solve these problems, this paper proposes an optimal prediction algorithm of PV system by using least square methods of linear regression analysis. And also, this paper presents a performance evaluation algorithm in PV modules based on the proposed optimal prediction algorithm of PV system. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is a practical tool of the state diagnosis for performance improvement in PV systems.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.17 no.8
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• pp.946-952
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• 2014

Mobility prediction is one of hot topics using location history information. It is useful for not only user-level applications such as people finder and recommendation sharing service but also for system-level applications such as hand-off management, resource allocation, and quality of service of wireless services. Most of current prediction techniques often use a set of significant locations without taking into account possible location information changes for prediction. Markov-based, LZ-based and Prediction by Pattern Matching techniques consider interesting locations to enhance the prediction accuracy, but they do not consider interesting location changes. In our paper, we propose an algorithm which integrates the changing or emerging new location information. This approach is based on Active LeZi algorithm, but both of new location and all possible location contexts will be updated in the tree with the fixed depth. Furthermore, the tree will also be updated even when there is no new location detected but the expected route is changed. We find that our algorithm is adaptive to predict next location. We evaluate our proposed system on a part of Dartmouth dataset consisting of 1026 users. An accuracy rate of more than 84% is achieved.

• Journal of Computing Science and Engineering
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.58-67
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• 2016

With the large amount of complex network data that is increasingly available on the Web, link prediction has become a popular data-mining research field. The focus of this paper is on a link-prediction task that can be formulated as a binary classification problem in complex networks. To solve this link-prediction problem, a sparse-classification algorithm called "Truncated Kernel Projection Machine" that is based on empirical-feature selection is proposed. The proposed algorithm is a novel way to achieve a realization of sparse empirical-feature-based learning that is different from those of the regularized kernel-projection machines. The algorithm is more appealing than those of the previous outstanding learning machines since it can be computed efficiently, and it is also implemented easily and stably during the link-prediction task. The algorithm is applied here for link-prediction tasks in different complex networks, and an investigation of several classification algorithms was performed for comparison. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperformed the compared algorithms in several key indices with a smaller number of test errors and greater stability.

• Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.156-167
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• 2007

In this paper, we develop the model based prediction algorithm for Variable-Bit-Rate(VBR) video traffic with regular Group of Picture(GOP) pattern. We use multiplicative ARIMA process called GOP ARIMA (ARIMA for Group Of Pictures) as a base stochastic model. Kalman Filter based prediction algorithm consists of two process: GOP ARIMA modeling and prediction. In performance study, we produce three video traces (news, drama, sports) and we compare the accuracy of three different prediction schemes: Kalman Filter based prediction, linear prediction, and double exponential smoothing. The proposed prediction algorithm yields superior prediction accuracy than the other two. We also show that confidence interval analysis can effectively detect scene changes of the sample video sequence. The Kalman filter based prediction algorithm proposed in this work makes significant contributions to various aspects of network traffic engineering and resource allocation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.5
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• pp.1630-1643
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• 2023

The correct situation awareness (SA) of operators is important for managing nuclear power plants (NPPs), particularly in accident-related situations. Among the three levels of SA suggested by Ensley, Level 3 SA (i.e., projection of the future status of the situation) is challenging because of the complexity of NPPs as well as the uncertainty of accidents. Hence, several prediction methods using artificial intelligence techniques have been proposed to assist operators in accident prediction. However, these methods only predict short-term plant status (e.g., the status after a few minutes) and do not provide information regarding the uncertainty associated with the prediction. This paper proposes an algorithm that can predict the multivariate and long-term behavior of plant parameters for 2 h with 120 steps and provide the uncertainty of the prediction. The algorithm applies bidirectional long short-term memory and an attention mechanism, which enable the algorithm to predict the precise long-term trends of the parameters with high prediction accuracy. A conditional variational autoencoder was used to provide uncertainty information about the network prediction. The algorithm was trained, optimized, and validated using a compact nuclear simulator for a Westinghouse 900 MWe NPP.