• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.137-146
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• 2023

The dropout of university freshmen is a very important issue in the financial problems of universities. Moreover, the dropout rate is one of the important indicators among the external evaluation items of universities. Therefore, universities need to predict dropout students in advance and apply various dropout prevention programs targeting them. This paper proposes a method to predict such dropout students in advance. This paper is about a method for predicting dropout students. It proposes a method to select dropouts by applying logistic regression using a shift sigmoid classification function using only quantitative data from the first semester of the first year, which most universities have. It is based on logistic regression and can select the number of prediction subjects and prediction accuracy by using the shift sigmoid function as an classification function. As a result of the experiment, when the proposed algorithm was applied, the number of predicted dropout subjects varied from 100% to 20% compared to the actual number of dropout subjects, and it was found to have a prediction accuracy of 75% to 98%.

• Journal of Wind Energy
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.10-22
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• 2024

This research is a comprehensive analysis of wind power prediction sensitivity using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning neural network model, accounting for the inherent uncertainties in wind speed estimation. Utilizing a year's worth of operational data from an operational wind farm, the study forecasts the power output of both individual wind turbines and the farm collectively. Predictions were made daily at intervals of 10 minutes and 1 hour over a span of three months. The model's forecast accuracy was evaluated by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (NRMSE), and correlation coefficients with actual power output data. Moreover, the research investigated how inaccuracies in wind speed inputs affect the power prediction sensitivity of the model. By simulating wind speed errors within a normal distribution range of 1% to 15%, the study analyzed their influence on the accuracy of power predictions. This investigation provided insights into the required wind speed prediction error rate to achieve an 8% power prediction error threshold, meeting the incentive standards for forecasting systems in renewable energy generation.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.93-100
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• 2006

In general, the verification to prediction formula in a national road and the main street of a town has been used recklessly in Korea. Therefore we investigated the validity of an existing prediction formula (NIER(87, 99), TR-Noise, KLC(2002)) with correction relationship which was based on both the prediction formular from apartment complex in the field and height 1.5m from the surface level. On the results of measuring the noise level form an isolated distance, the noise level showed that it was 4.5~5.5dB(A) by reason of becoming 2 folder far from a source. From the distribution of noise level measured by the apartment floors, the measurement point (1st floor) was 58.7~71.4dB(A) at its lowest level and the middle floors (3, 5, 7 and 10) were the highest distribution of noise level. From the analysis results on the application validity to an existing prediction formular (NIER(87, 99), TR-Noise, KLC(2002)) in the height 1.5m, the correction coefficients were 0.95~0.96 and the measured values were reasonably close to the predicted values, indicating the validity and adequacy of the predicted models. KLC(2002) model was found accurate within 3dB(A) with 36 data out of the total 42 data, showing the most accuracy among the predict models. However, the developed models have to improve the accuracy with a various of factors.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.355-363
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• 2022

Korea is pursuing a plan to switch and expand energy sources with a focus on renewable energy with the goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. As the instability of energy supply increases due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy, accurate prediction of the amount of renewable energy generation is becoming more important. Therefore, the government has opened a small-scale power brokerage market and is implementing a system that pays settlements according to the accuracy of renewable energy prediction. In this paper, a prediction model was implemented using a statistical model and an artificial intelligence model for the prediction of solar power generation. In addition, the results of prediction accuracy were compared and analyzed, and the revenue from the settlement amount of the renewable energy generation forecasting system was estimated.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.37-51
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• 2015

Due to the development of internet technology and the rapid increase of internet data, various studies are actively conducted on how to use and analyze internet data for various purposes. In particular, in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of the current application of structured data. Especially, there are various studies on sentimental analysis to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity such as positivity or negativity of vocabularies or sentences of the texts in documents. As a part of such studies, this study tries to predict ups and downs of stock prices of companies by performing sentimental analysis on news contexts of the particular companies in the Internet. A variety of news on companies is produced online by different economic agents, and it is diffused quickly and accessed easily in the Internet. So, based on inefficient market hypothesis, we can expect that news information of an individual company can be used to predict the fluctuations of stock prices of the company if we apply proper data analysis techniques. However, as the areas of corporate management activity are different, an analysis considering characteristics of each company is required in the analysis of text data based on machine-learning. In addition, since the news including positive or negative information on certain companies have various impacts on other companies or industry fields, an analysis for the prediction of the stock price of each company is necessary. Therefore, this study attempted to predict changes in the stock prices of the individual companies that applied a sentimental analysis of the online news data. Accordingly, this study chose top company in KOSPI 200 as the subjects of the analysis, and collected and analyzed online news data by each company produced for two years on a representative domestic search portal service, Naver. In addition, considering the differences in the meanings of vocabularies for each of the certain economic subjects, it aims to improve performance by building up a lexicon for each individual company and applying that to an analysis. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy of the prediction by each company are different, and the prediction accurate rate turned out to be 56% on average. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices on industry sectors, 'energy/chemical', 'consumer goods for living' and 'consumer discretionary' showed a relatively higher accuracy of the prediction of stock prices than other industries, while it was found that the sectors such as 'information technology' and 'shipbuilding/transportation' industry had lower accuracy of prediction. The number of the representative companies in each industry collected was five each, so it is somewhat difficult to generalize, but it could be confirmed that there was a difference in the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices depending on industry sectors. In addition, at the individual company level, the companies such as 'Kangwon Land', 'KT & G' and 'SK Innovation' showed a relatively higher prediction accuracy as compared to other companies, while it showed that the companies such as 'Young Poong', 'LG', 'Samsung Life Insurance', and 'Doosan' had a low prediction accuracy of less than 50%. In this paper, we performed an analysis of the share price performance relative to the prediction of individual companies through the vocabulary of pre-built company to take advantage of the online news information. In this paper, we aim to improve performance of the stock prices prediction, applying online news information, through the stock price prediction of individual companies. Based on this, in the future, it will be possible to find ways to increase the stock price prediction accuracy by complementing the problem of unnecessary words that are added to the sentiment dictionary.

• Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.156-167
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• 2007

In this paper, we develop the model based prediction algorithm for Variable-Bit-Rate(VBR) video traffic with regular Group of Picture(GOP) pattern. We use multiplicative ARIMA process called GOP ARIMA (ARIMA for Group Of Pictures) as a base stochastic model. Kalman Filter based prediction algorithm consists of two process: GOP ARIMA modeling and prediction. In performance study, we produce three video traces (news, drama, sports) and we compare the accuracy of three different prediction schemes: Kalman Filter based prediction, linear prediction, and double exponential smoothing. The proposed prediction algorithm yields superior prediction accuracy than the other two. We also show that confidence interval analysis can effectively detect scene changes of the sample video sequence. The Kalman filter based prediction algorithm proposed in this work makes significant contributions to various aspects of network traffic engineering and resource allocation.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.73-82
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• 2020

With the coal mining depth increasing, both stress and gas pressure rapidly enhance, causing coal and gas outburst risk to become more complex and severe. The conventional method for prediction of coal and gas outburst adopts one prediction index and corresponding critical value to forecast and cannot reflect all the factors impacting coal and gas outburst, thus it is characteristic of false and missing forecasts and poor accuracy. For the reason, based on analyses of both the prediction indicators and the factors impacting coal and gas outburst at the test site, this work carefully selected 6 prediction indicators such as the index of gas desorption from drill cuttings Δh₂, the amount of drill cuttings S, gas content W, the gas initial diffusion velocity index ΔP, the intensity of electromagnetic radiation E and its number of pulse N, constructed the Bayes discriminant analysis (BDA) index system, studied the BDA-based multi-index comprehensive model for forecast of coal and gas outburst risk, and used the established discriminant model to conduct coal and gas outburst prediction. Results showed that the BDA - based multi-index comprehensive model for prediction of coal and gas outburst has an 100% of prediction accuracy, without wrong and omitted predictions, can also accurately forecast the outburst risk even for the low indicators outburst. The prediction method set up by this study has a broad application prospect in the prediction of coal and gas outburst risk.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.239-276
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• 2009

The paper investigates the possible relationship between earnings prediction by security analysts and special ownership ties that link security companies those analysts belong to and firms under analysis. "Security analysts" are known best for their role as information producers in stock markets where imperfect information is prevalent and transaction costs are high. In such a market, changes in the fundamental value of a company are not spontaneously reflected in the stock price, and the security analysts actively produce and distribute the relevant information crucial for the price mechanism to operate efficiently. Therefore, securing the fairness and accuracy of information they provide is very important for efficiencyof resource allocation as well as protection of investors who are excluded from the special relationship. Evidence of systematic distortion of information by the special tie naturally calls for regulatory intervention, if found. However, one cannot presuppose the existence of distorted information based on the common ownership between the appraiser and the appraisee. Reputation effect is especially cherished by security firms and among analysts as indispensable intangible asset in the industry, and the incentive to maintain good reputation by providing accurate earnings prediction may overweigh the incentive to offer favorable rating or stock recommendation for the firms that are affiliated by common ownership. This study shares the theme of existing literature concerning the effect of conflict of interests on the accuracy of analyst's predictions. This study, however, focuses on the potential conflict of interest situation that may originate from the Korea-specific ownership structure of large conglomerates. Utilizing an extensive database of analysts' reports provided by WiseFn(R) in Korea, we perform empirical analysis of potential relationship between earnings prediction and common ownership. We first analyzed the prediction bias index which tells how optimistic or friendly the analyst's prediction is compared to the realized earnings. It is shown that there exists no statistically significant relationship between the prediction bias and common ownership. This is a rather surprising result since it is observed that the frequency of positive prediction bias is higher with such ownership tie. Next, we analyzed the prediction accuracy index which shows how accurate the analyst's prediction is compared to the realized earnings regardless of its sign. It is also concluded that there is no significant association between the accuracy ofearnings prediction and special relationship. We interpret the results implying that market discipline based on reputation effect is working in Korean stock market in the sense that security companies do not seem to be influenced by an incentive to offer distorted information on affiliated firms. While many of the existing studies confirm the relationship between the ability of the analystand the accuracy of the analyst's prediction, these factors cannot be controlled in the above analysis due to the lack of relevant data. As an indirect way to examine the possibility that such relationship might have distorted the result, we perform an additional but identical analysis based on a sub-sample consisting only of reports by best analysts. The result also confirms the earlier conclusion that the common ownership structure does not affect the accuracy and bias of earnings prediction by the analyst.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.33-40
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• 2007

Processor pipelines have been growing deeper and issue widths wider over the years. If this trend continues, the branch misprediction penalty will become very high. Branch misprediction is the single most significant performance limiter for improving processor performance using deeper pipelining. Therefore, more accurate branch predictor becomes an essential part of modern processors. Several branch predictors combine a part of the branch address with a fixed amount of global branch history to make a prediction. These predictors cannot perform uniformly well across all programs because the best amount of branch history to be used depends on the program and branches in the program. Therefore, predictors that use a fixed history length are unable to perform up to their potential performance. In this paper, we propose a branch prediction mechanism, using variable length history, which predicts using a bank having higher prediction accuracy among predictions from five banks. Bank 0 is a bimodal predictor which is indexed with the 12 least significant bits of the branch address. Banks 1, 2, 3 and 4 are predictors which are indexed with different global history bits and the branch PC. In simulation results, the proposed mechanism outperforms gshare predictors using fixed history length of 12 and 13 , up to 6.34% in prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the proposed mechanism outperforms gshare predictors using best history lengths for benchmarks, up to 2.3% in prediction accuracy.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.9 s.170
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• pp.755-766
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• 2006

Since the accuracy of climate forecast information has improved from better understanding of the climatic system, particularly, from the better understanding of ENSO and the improvement in meteorological models, the forecasted climate information is becoming the important clue for streamflow prediction. This study investigated the available climate forecast information to improve the extended streamflow prediction in Korea, such as MIMI(Monthly Industrial Meteorological Information) and GDAPS(Global Data Assimilation and Prediction) and measured their accuracies. Both MIMI and the 10-day forecast of GDAPS were superior to a naive forecasts and peformed better for the flood season than for the dry season, thus it was proved that such climate forecasts would be valuable for the flood season. This study then forecasted the monthly inflows to Chungju Dam by using MIMI and GDAPS. For MIMI, we compared three cases: All, Intersection, Union. The accuracies of all three cases are better than the naive forecast and especially, Extended Streamflow Predictions(ESPs) with the Intersection and with Union scenarios were superior to that with the All scenarios for the flood season. For GDAPS, the 10-day ahead streamflow prediction also has the better accuracy for the flood season than for the dry season. Therefore, this study proved that using the climate information such as MIMI and GDAPS to reduce the meteorologic uncertainty can improve the accuracy of the extended streamflow prediction for the flood season.