• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction accuracy

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A Prediction of Chip Quality using OPTICS (Ordering Points to Identify the Clustering Structure)-based Feature Extraction at the Cell Level (셀 레벨에서의 OPTICS 기반 특질 추출을 이용한 칩 품질 예측)

  • Kim, Ki Hyun;Baek, Jun Geol
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.257-266
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    • 2014
  • The semiconductor manufacturing industry is managed by a number of parameters from the FAB which is the initial step of production to package test which is the final step of production. Various methods for prediction for the quality and yield are required to reduce the production costs caused by a complicated manufacturing process. In order to increase the accuracy of quality prediction, we have to extract the significant features from the large amount of data. In this study, we propose the method for extracting feature from the cell level data of probe test process using OPTICS which is one of the density-based clustering to improve the prediction accuracy of the quality of the assembled chips that will be placed in a package test. Two features extracted by using OPTICS are used as input variables of quality prediction model because of having position information of the cell defect. The package test progress for chips classified to the correct quality grade by performing the improved prediction method is expected to bring the effect of reducing production costs.

Prediction of 305 Days Milk Production from Early Records in Dairy Cattle Using an Empirical Bayes Method

  • Pereira, J.A.C.;Suzuki, M.;Hagiya, K.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.1511-1515
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    • 2001
  • A prediction of 305 d milk production from early records using an empirical Bayes method (EBM) was performed. The EBM was compared with the best predicted estimation (BPE), test interval method (TIM), and the linearized Wood's model (LWM). Daily milk yields were obtained from 606 first lactation Japanese Holstein cows in three herds. From each file of 305 daily records, 10 random test day records with an interval of approximately one month were taken. The accuracies of these methods were compared using the absolute difference (AD) and the standard deviation (SD) of the differences between the actual and the estimated 305 d milk production. The results showed that in the early stage of the lactation, EBM was superior in obtaining the prediction with high accuracy. When all the herds were analyzed jointly, the AD during the first 5 test day records were on average 373, 590, 917 and 1,042 kg for EBM, BPE, TIM, and LWM, respectively. Corresponding SD for EBM, BPE, TIM, and LWM were on average 488, 733, 747 and 1,605 kg. When the herds were analyzed separately, the EBM predictions retained high accuracy. When more information on the actual lactation was added to the prediction, TIM and LWM gradually achieved better accuracies. Finally, in the last period of the lactation, the accuracy of both of the methods exceeded EBM and BPM. The AD for the last 2 samples analyzing all the herds jointly were on average 141, 142, 164, and 214 kg for LWM, TIM, EBM, and BPE, respectively. In the current practices of collecting monthly records, early prediction of future milk production may be more accurate using EBM. Alternatively, if enough information of the actual lactation is accumulated, TIM may obtain better accuracy in the latter stage of lactation.

Relationships Between the Characteristics of the Business Data Set and Forecasting Accuracy of Prediction models (시계열 데이터의 성격과 예측 모델의 예측력에 관한 연구)

  • 이원하;최종욱
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.133-147
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    • 1998
  • Recently, many researchers have been involved in finding deterministic equations which can accurately predict future event, based on chaotic theory, or fractal theory. The theory says that some events which seem very random but internally deterministic can be accurately predicted by fractal equations. In contrast to the conventional methods, such as AR model, MA, model, or ARIMA model, the fractal equation attempts to discover a deterministic order inherent in time series data set. In discovering deterministic order, researchers have found that neural networks are much more effective than the conventional statistical models. Even though prediction accuracy of the network can be different depending on the topological structure and modification of the algorithms, many researchers asserted that the neural network systems outperforms other systems, because of non-linear behaviour of the network models, mechanisms of massive parallel processing, generalization capability based on adaptive learning. However, recent survey shows that prediction accuracy of the forecasting models can be determined by the model structure and data structures. In the experiments based on actual economic data sets, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the neural network model is similar to the performance level of the conventional forecasting model. Especially, for the data set which is deterministically chaotic, the AR model, a conventional statistical model, was not significantly different from the MLP model, a neural network model. This result shows that the forecasting model. This result shows that the forecasting model a, pp.opriate to a prediction task should be selected based on characteristics of the time series data set. Analysis of the characteristics of the data set was performed by fractal analysis, measurement of Hurst index, and measurement of Lyapunov exponents. As a conclusion, a significant difference was not found in forecasting future events for the time series data which is deterministically chaotic, between a conventional forecasting model and a typical neural network model.

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Early Prediction Model of Student Performance Based on Deep Neural Network Using Massive LMS Log Data (대용량 LMS 로그 데이터를 이용한 심층신경망 기반 대학생 학업성취 조기예측 모델)

  • Moon, Kibum;Kim, Jinwon;Lee, Jinsook
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2021
  • Log data accumulated in the Learning Management System (LMS) provide high-quality information for the learning process of students. Until now, various studies have been conducted to predict students' academic achievement using LMS log data. However, previous studies were based on relatively small sample sizes of students and courses, limiting the possibility of generalization. This study developed and validated a deep neural network model for the early prediction of academic achievement of college students using massive LMS log data. To this end, we used 78,466,385 cases of LMS log data and 165,846 cases of grade data. The proposed model predicted the excellent-grade students with a high level of accuracy from the beginning of the semester. Meanwhile, the prediction accuracy for the moderate and underachieving groups was relatively low, but the accuracy improved as the time points of the prediction were delayed. This study is meaningful in that we developed an early prediction model based on a deep neural network with sufficient accuracy for practical utilization by only using LMS log data.

Analysis of Impact Factors for the Improvement of Conceptual Cost Estimation Accuracy for Public Office Building (공공청사 개산견적 정확도 향상을 위한 공사비 영향요인 분석)

  • Jo, Yeong-Ho;Yun, Seok-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.495-506
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    • 2021
  • A Conceptual cost estimate, which is computed in the preliminary step of a project, is important for decision-making by a contractor in terms of the project budget, economic feasibility and validity analysis, and alternative comparisons. Therefore, a high error rate of a prediction model for a conceptual cost estimate can lead to various problems including excessive project expenditures and a delayed break-even point. this study proposed optimal impact factors by configuring quantitative impact factors computable in a preliminary step in various cases(combinations of impact factors). subsequently, the accuracy of different cases was comparatively analyzed by using the cases as input values of a prediction model using regression analysis. when the optimal combination of impact factors proposed in this study and other combination of impact factors were applied to the prediction model, the regression analysis-based prediction model exhibited 0.2-4.7% improvements in accuracy, respectively. the optimal combination of impact factors proposed in this study improved the accuracy of the prediction model of a conceptual cost estimate by removing unnecessary impact factor.

Measurement and Prediction of Spray Targeting Points according to Injector Parameter and Injection Condition (인젝터 설계변수 및 분사조건에 따른 분무타겟팅 지점의 측정 및 예측)

  • Mengzhao Chang;Bo Zhou;Suhan Park
    • Journal of ILASS-Korea
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2023
  • In the cylinder of gasoline direct injection engines, the spray targeting from injectors is of great significance for fuel consumption and pollutant emissions. The automotive industry is putting a lot of effort into improving injector targeting accuracy. To improve the targeting accuracy of injectors, it is necessary to develop models that can predict the spray targeting positions. When developing spray targeting models, the most used technique is computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Recently, due to the superiority of machine learning in prediction accuracy, the application of machine learning in this field is also receiving constant attention. The purpose of this study is to build a machine learning model that can accurately predict spray targeting based on the design parameters of injectors. To achieve this goal, this study firstly used laser sheet beam visualization equipment to obtain many spray cross-sectional images of injectors with different parameters at different injection pressures and measurement planes. The spray images were processed by MATLAB code to get the targeting coordinates of sprays. A total of four models were used for the prediction of spray targeting coordinates, namely ANN, LSTM, Conv1D and Conv1D & LSTM. Features fed into the machine learning model include injector design parameters, injection conditions, and measurement planes. Labels to be output from the model are spray targeting coordinates. In addition, the spray data of 7 injectors were used for model training, and the spray data of the remaining one injector were used for model performance verification. Finally, the prediction performance of the model was evaluated by R2 and RMSE. It is found that the Conv1D&LSTM model has the highest accuracy in predicting the spray targeting coordinates, which can reach 98%. In addition, the prediction bias of the model becomes larger as the distance from the injector tip increases.

The development and application of on-line model for the prediction of roll force in hot strip rolling (얼간 사상 압연중 압하력 예측 모델 개발 및 적용)

  • Lee J. H.;Choi J. W.;Kwak W. J.;Hwang S. M.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Technology of Plasticity Conference
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.175-183
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    • 2004
  • In hot strip rolling, a capability for precisely predicting roll force is crucial for sound process control. In the past, on-line prediction models have been developed mostly on the basis of Orowan's theory and its variation. However, the range of process conditions in which desired prediction accuracy could be achieved was rather limited, mainly due to many simplifying assumptions inherent to Orowan's theory. As far as the prediction accuracy is concerned, a rigorously formulated finite element(FE) process model is perhaps the best choice. However, a FE process model in general requires a large CPU time, rendering itself inadequate for on-line purpose. In this report, we present a FE-based on-line prediction model applicable to precision process control in a finishing mill(FM). Described was an integrated FE process model capable of revealing the detailed aspects of the thermo-mechanical behavior of the roll-strip system. Using the FE process model, a series of process simulation was conducted to investigate the effect of diverse process variables on some selected non-dimensional parameters characterizing the thermo-mechanical behavior of the strip. Then, it was shown that an on-line model for the prediction of roll force could be derived on the basis of these parameters. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model was examined through comparison with measurements from the hot strip mill.

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A Study on Construction of Integrated Prokaryotes Gene Prediction System (통합형 미생물 유전자 예측 시스템의 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Chang Jong-won;Ryoo Yoon-kyu;Ku Ja-hyo;Yoon Young-woo
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.27-32
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    • 2005
  • As a large quantity of Genome sequencing has happened to be done a very much a surprising speed in short period, an automatic genome annotation process has become prerequisite. The most difficult process among with this kind of genome annotation works is to finding out the protein-coding genes within a genome. The main 2 subjects of gene prediction are Eukaryotes and Prokaryotes ; their genes have different structures, therefore, their gene prediction methods will also obviously varies. Until now, it is found that among of the 231 genome sequenced species, 200 have been found to be prokaryotes, therefore, for study of biotechnology studies, through comparative genomics, prokaryotes, rather than eukaryotes could may be more appropriate than eukaryotes. Even more, prokaryotes does not have the gene structure called an intron, so it makes the gene prediction easier. Former prokaryotes gene predictions have been shown to be 80%~ to 90% of accuracy. A recent study is aiming at 100% of gene prediction accuracy. In this paper, especially in the case of the E. coli K-12 and S. typhi genomes, gene prediction accuracy which showed 98.5% and 98.7% was more efficient than previous GLIMMER.

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The Effect of an Integrated Rating Prediction Method on Performance Improvement of Collaborative Filtering (통합 평가치 예측 방안의 협력 필터링 성능 개선 효과)

  • Lee, Soojung
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.221-226
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    • 2021
  • Collaborative filtering based recommender systems recommend user-preferrable items based on rating history and are essential function for the current various commercial purposes. In order to determine items to recommend, prediction of preference score for unrated items is estimated based on similar rating history. Previous studies usually employ two methods individually, i.e., similar user based or similar item based ones. These methods have drawbacks of degrading prediction accuracy in case of sparse user ratings data or when having difficulty with finding similar users or items. This study suggests a new rating prediction method by integrating the two previous methods. The proposed method has the advantage of consulting more similar ratings, thus improving the recommendation quality. The experimental results reveal that our method significantly improve the performance of previous methods, in terms of prediction accuracy, relevance level of recommended items, and that of recommended item ranks with a sparse dataset. With a rather dense dataset, it outperforms the previous methods in terms of prediction accuracy and shows comparable results in other metrics.

Prediction of Student's Interest on Sports for Classification using Bi-Directional Long Short Term Memory Model

  • Ahamed, A. Basheer;Surputheen, M. Mohamed
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.246-256
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    • 2022
  • Recently, parents and teachers consider physical education as a minor subject for students in elementary and secondary schools. Physical education performance has become increasingly significant as parents and schools pay more attention to physical schooling. The sports mining with distribution analysis model considers different factors, including the games, comments, conversations, and connection made on numerous sports interests. Using different machine learning/deep learning approach, children's athletic and academic interests can be tracked over the course of their academic lives. There have been a number of studies that have focused on predicting the success of students in higher education. Sports interest prediction research at the secondary level is uncommon, but the secondary level is often used as a benchmark to describe students' educational development at higher levels. An Automated Student Interest Prediction on Sports Mining using DL Based Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory model (BiLSTM) is presented in this article. Pre-processing of data, interest classification, and parameter tweaking are all the essential operations of the proposed model. Initially, data augmentation is used to expand the dataset's size. Secondly, a BiLSTM model is used to predict and classify user interests. Adagrad optimizer is employed for hyperparameter optimization. In order to test the model's performance, a dataset is used and the results are analysed using precision, recall, accuracy and F-measure. The proposed model achieved 95% accuracy on 400th instances, where the existing techniques achieved 93.20% accuracy for the same. The proposed model achieved 95% of accuracy and precision for 60%-40% data, where the existing models achieved 93% for accuracy and precision.