• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction

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The Prognostic Value of the Seventh Day APACHE III Score in Medical Intensive Care Unit (내과계 중환자들의 예후 판정에 었어서 제 7병일 APACHE III 점수의 임상적 유용성)

  • Kim, Mi-Ok;Yun, Soo-Mi;Park, Eun-Joo;Sohn, Jang-Won;Yang, Seok-Chul;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Park, Sung-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.236-244
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    • 2001
  • Background : Most current research using prognostic scoring systems in critically ill patients have focused on prediction using the first intensive care unit (ICU) day data or daily updated data. Usually the mean ICU length of stay in Korea is longer than in the western world. Consequently, a more cost-effective and practical prognostic parameter is required. The principal aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the seventh day(7th day : the average mean ICU length of stay) APACHE III score in a medical intensive care unit. Methods : 241 medical ICU patients from July 1997 to April 1998 were enrolled. The 1st and 7th scores were measured by using the APACHE III scoring system and compared between survivors and non-survivors. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ APACHE III scores and the mortality risk. Results : 1 )The mean length of stay in the ICU was $10.3{\pm}13.8$ days. 2)The mean $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day APACHE III scores were $59.7{\pm}30.9$ and $37.9{\pm}27.7$. 3) The mean $1^{st}$ day APACHE III score was significantly lower in survivors than in non- survivors($49.9{\pm}23.8$ vs $86.3{\pm}32.3$, P<0.0001). 4)The mean $7^{th}$ day APACHE III score was significantly lower in survivors than in non- survivors($30.1{\pm}18.5$ vs $80.1{\pm}30.4$, P<0.0001). 5)The odds ratios among the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day APACHE III scores and the mortality rate were 1.0507 and 1.0779 respectively. Conclusion : These results suggest that the seventh day APACHE III score is as useful in predicting the outcome as is such like the first day APACHE III score. Therefore, in comparison to the daily APACHE III score, measuring the $1^{st}$ and $7^{th}$ day APACHE III scores are also useful for predicting the prognosis of critically ill patients in terms of cost-effectiveness. It is suggested that the $7^{th}$ day APACHE III score is useful for predicting the clinical outcome.

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Analysis of Sleep Questionnaires of Patients who Performed Overnight Polysomnography at the University Hospital (한 대학병원에서 철야 수면다원검사를 시행한 환자들의 수면설문조사 결과 분석)

  • Kang, Ji Ho;Lee, Sang Haak;Kwon, Soon Seog;Kim, Young Kyoon;Kim, Kwan Hyoung;Song, Jeong Sup;Park, Sung Hak;Moon, Hwa Sik;Park, Yong Moon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.76-82
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    • 2006
  • Background : The objective of this study was to understand sleep-related problems, and to determine whether the sleep questionnaires is a clinically useful method in patients who need polysomnography. Methods : Subjects were patients who performed polysomnography and who asked to answer a sleep questionnaires at the Sleep Disorders Clinic of St. Paul's Hospital, Catholic University of Korea. Baseline characteristics, past medical illness, behaviors during sleep-wake cycle, snoring, sleep-disordered breathing and symptoms of daytime sleepiness were analyzed to compare with data of polysomnography. Results : The study population included 1081 patients(849 men, 232 female), and their mean age was $44.2{\pm}12.8years$. Among these patients, 38.9% had an apnea-hypopnea index(AHI)<5, 27.9% had $5{\leq}AHI<20$, 13.2% had $20{\leq}AHI<40$, and 20.0% had $40{\leq}AHI$. The main problems for visiting our clinic were snoring(91.7%), sleep apnea(74.5%), excessive daytime sleepiness(8.0%), insomnia(4.3%), bruxism(1.1%) and attention deficit(0.5%). The mean value of frequency of interruptions of sleep was 1.6 and the most common reason was urination(46.3%). Epworth Sleepiness Scale(ESS) had a weak correlation with AHI(r=0.209, p<0.01). When we performed analysis of sleep questionnaires, there were significant differences in the mean values of AHI according to the severity of symptoms including snoring, daytime sleepiness, taking a nap and arousal state after wake(p<0.05). Conclusion : On the basis of statistical analysis of sleep questionnaires, the severity of subjective symptoms such as ESS, snoring, daytime sleepiness and arousal state after wake correlated with the AHI significantly. Therefore the sleep questionnaires can be useful instruments for prediction of the severity of sleep disorder, especially sleep-disordered breathing.

Prediction of Prognosis to Concurrent Chemo-Radiotherapy by Standardized Uptake Value of $2-[18^F]$ Fluovo-2-Deoxy-D-Glucose for Nasopharyngeal Carcinomas (비인강암 환자의 예후에서 $2-[18^F]$ Fluoro-2-Deoxy-D-Glucose PET 영상에서 계산되는 Standardized Uptake Value의 의의)

  • Lee Sang-wook;Im Ki Chun;Nam Soon Yuhl;Kim Jae Seung;Choi Eun Kyung;Ahn Seung Do;Shin Seong Soo;Ryu Jin Sook;Kim Sang Yoon;Lee Bong-Jae;Choi Seung-Ho;Kim Sung-Bae;Moon Dae Hyuk
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : To prospectively evaluate the use of positron emission tomography with the glucose analog fluoro-deoxyglucose (FDG-PET) to deoxyglucose (FDG-PET) to predict disease-free survival (DFS) after concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CCRT) in patients with non-disseminated nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Materials and Methods : We studied 41 patients with non-disseminated NPC scheduled to undergo platinum-based CCRT were eligible for this study. Patients were studied by FDG-PET prior to the CCRT. FDG uptake of tumors were measured with the maximal standardized uptake value (SUV). Results : Complete response rate was $100\%$. In ten patients who presented with any component of treatment failure, the median $SUV_{max}$ was 8.55 (range: $2.49\~14.81$) in any component of failure and the median $SUV_{max}$ was 5.48 (range: $2.31\~26.07$) In the remaining patients without any such failure. Patients having tumors with high FDG uptake had a significantly lower 3-year DFS ($51\%\;{\nu}91\%$, p=0.0070) compared with patients having low uptake tumors. Conclusion : FDG uptake, as measured by the SUV, has potential value in predicting DFS in NPC treated by CCRT, High FDG uptake may be a useful parameter for Identifying patients requiring more aggressive treatment approaches.

Impact of Communication Competence and Empathy Abilities on Interpersonal Relationship Abilities among Dental Hygiene Students (일부 치위생 전공 대학생의 의사소통능력과 공감능력이 대인관계능력에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Sun-Ju;Kim, Han-Hong
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.304-313
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of the communication competence and empathy abilities of dental hygiene students on their interpersonal relationship abilities. The subjects in this study were 578 students who majored in dental hygiene at five randomly selected colleges. Out of the colleges, three were located in North Chungcheong province, and one was located in the city of Daejeon. The other one was located in South Gyeongsang province. Data were gathered using structured questionnaires from April 1 to May 7, 2013. The major findings of the study were as follows: 1. The respondents got a mean of $3.23{\pm}0.49$, $85.80{\pm}10.12$ and $83.27{\pm}8.37$ in interpersonal relationship abilities, communication competence and empathy abilities respectively. 2. As for communication competence, empathy abilities and interpersonal relationship abilities by general characteristics, there were statistically significant differences according to age, academic year, clinical practice experience and satisfaction with major. 3. The relationship of communication competence and empathy abilities to interpersonal relationship abilities was analyzed, and interpersonal relationship abilities were found to have a strong significant positive correlation to communication competence, empathy abilities and the subfactors of the two. 4. As a result of analyzing which variables affected interpersonal relationship abilities, it's found that interpersonal relationship abilities were under the influence of age, clinical practice experience, communication competence, empathy abilities. These variables made a 57.2% prediction of interpersonal relationship abilities. The above-mentioned findings suggest that communication competence and empathy abilities exerted an influence on interpersonal relationship abilities. Therefore curriculums and educational programs should be developed in consideration of these variables to ensure the stable college lives and successful relationship building of dental hygiene students who are on the way to adulthood and will serve as health care personnels in the future.

Predicting the Goshawk's habitat area using Species Distribution Modeling: Case Study area Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea (종분포모형을 이용한 참매의 서식지 예측 -충청북도를 대상으로-)

  • Cho, Hae-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Shin, Man-Seok;Kang, Tehan;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.333-343
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    • 2015
  • This research aims at identifying the goshawk's possible and replaceable breeding ground by using the MaxEnt prediction model which has so far been insufficiently used in Korea, and providing evidence to expand possible protection areas for the goshawk's breeding for the future. The field research identified 10 goshawk's nests, and 23 appearance points confirmed during the 3rd round of environmental research were used for analysis. 4 geomorphic, 3 environmental, 7 distance, and 9 weather factors were used as model variables. The final environmental variables were selected through non-parametric verification between appearance and non-appearance coordinates identified by random sampling. The final predictive model (MaxEnt) was structured using 10 factors related to breeding ground and 7 factors related to appearance area selected by statistics verification. According to the results of the study, the factor that affected breeding point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from mixforest, density-class on the forest map and relief energy. The factor that affected appearance point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from rivers and ponds, distance from agricultural land and gradient. The nature of the goshawk's breeding environment and habit to breed inside forests were reflected in this modeling that targets breeding points. The northern central area which is about $189.5 km^2$(2.55 %) is expected to be suitable breeding ground. Large cities such as Cheongju and Chungju are located in the southern part of Chungcheongbuk-do whereas the northern part of Chungcheongbuk-do has evenly distributed forests and farmlands, which helps goshawks have a scope of influence and food source to breed. Appearance point modeling predicted an area of $3,071 km^2$(41.38 %) showing a wider ranging habitat than that of the breeding point modeling due to some limitations such as limited moving observation and non-consideration of seasonal changes. When targeting the breeding points, a specific predictive area can be deduced but it is difficult to check the points of nests and it is impossible to reflect the goshawk's behavioral area. On the other hand, when targeting appearance points, a wider ranging area can be covered but it is less accurate compared to predictive breeding point since simple movements and constant use status are not reflected. However, with these results, the goshawk's habitat can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In particular, it is necessary to apply precise predictive breeding area data based on habitat modeling results when enforcing an environmental evaluation or establishing a development plan.

Evaluation for Rock Cleavage Using Distribution of Microcrack Spacings (I) (미세균열의 간격 분포를 이용한 결의 평가(I))

  • Park, Deok-Won
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2016
  • The characteristics of the rock cleavage inherent in Jurassic granite from Geochang were analysed. The phases of distribution of microcrack spacings were derived from the enlarged photomicrographs(${\times}6.7$) of the thin section. The evaluation for the six directions of rock cleavages was performed using nine parameters such as (1) frequency of microcrack spacing(N), (2) frequency ratio(${\leq}1mm$ and 4 mm >) to total spacing frequency(N:191), (3) spacing ratio(${\leq}1mm$) to total spacing(118.49 mm), (4) mean spacing($S_{mean}$), (5) difference value($S_{mean}-S_{median}$) between mean spacing and median spacing($S_{median}$), (6) density of spacing, (7) median spacing, (8) reduction ratio of spacing frequency to length frequency and (9) magnitude of exponent(${\lambda}$ and b) related to the distribution type of diagram. Especially the close dependence between the above spacing parameters and the parameters from the spacing-cumulative frequency diagrams was derived. The results of correlation analysis between the values of parameters for three rock cleavages and those for three planes are as follows. The values of (I) parameters(1, 2 and 3), (II) parameters(4, 5 and 6), (III) parameter(7), (IV) parameter(8) and (V) parameter(9) show the various orders of H(hardway, H1+H2) < G(grain, G1+G2) < R(rift, R1+R2), R < G < H, R < H < G, G < H < R and H < G < R, respectively. On the contrary, the values of the above four groups(I~IV) of parameters for three planes show reverse orders. This type of correlation analysis is useful for discriminating three quarrying planes. Six spacing-cumulative frequency diagrams were arranged in increasing order on the value of main parameter($S_{mean}-S_{median}$). These diagrams show an order of R2 < R1 < G2 < G1 < H2 < H1 from the related chart. In other words, the above six diagrams can be summarized in order of rift(R1+R2) < grain(G1+G2) < hardway(H1+H2). These results indicate a relative magnitude of rock cleavage related to microcrack spacing. Especially, the above main parameter could provide advanced information for prediction the order of arrangement among the diagrams.

Effect of Package Size and Pasteurization Temperature on the Quality of Sous Vide Processed Spinach (Sous Vide 가공 시금치의 품질에 미치는 포장단위 및 살균온도의 영향)

  • 장재덕;김기태;이동선
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.195-200
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    • 2004
  • Microbial lethal value and nutrient retention of sous vide processed spinach were evaluated with mathematical model prediction and experimental trial for different package sizes and pasteurization temperatures. The package size covers 500 g, 1 kg and 2 kg, while the pasteurization temperature includes 80, 90 and 97$^{\circ}C$. The basic process scheme consists of filling blanched spinach into barrier plastic film pouch, sealing under vacuum, pasteurization in hot water with over pressure and final cooling to 3$^{\circ}C$. Pasteurization condition was designed based on attainment of 6 decimal inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes at geometric center of the pouch package by heating cycle, which was determined by general method. Heat penetration property of the package and thermal destruction kinetics were combined to estimate the retention of ascorbic acid and chlorophyll. Smaller packages with shorter pasteurization time gave better nutrient retention, physical and chemical qualities. Larger package size was estimated and confirmed experimentally to give higher pasteurization value at center, lower ascorbic acid and chlorophyll contents caused by longer heat process time. Lower pasteurization temperature with longer process time was predicted to give lower pasteurization value at center and lower ascorbic acid, while chlorophyll content was affected little by the temperature. Experimental trial showed better retention of ascorbic acid and chlorophyll for smaller package and higher pasteurization temperature with shorter heating time. The beneficial effect of smaller package and higher pasteurization temperature was also observed in texture, color retention and drip production.

A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.17-39
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

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A Study on Yunqi Climate (運氣氣候) through analysis of Meteorological research data in Korea (한국(韓國) 기상자료(氣象資料)의 분석(分析)을 통(通)한 운기(運氣) 기후(氣候)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Chan-Young;Kim, Ki-Wook;Park, Hyun-Kook
    • The Journal of Dong Guk Oriental Medicine
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2000
  • The comparison of climate's character of Yunqi(運氣) with the data of meterological observation were made in the research of climate. 1. The comparison of the average velocity of wind, temperature, rainfall, humidity of Seoul, by late 1954 to 1983, with Yunqi(運氣) was made. Fire-Chi(火氣) and moisture-qi(濕氣) were matched with the attribute of Taiyun(大運). Cold-qi(寒氣) was had some relationship. Dry-qi(燥 氣) and Wind-qi(風氣) were not matched. About the relationship of Spirit-of-official-sky(司天之氣) with climate, when the Moisture-soil(濕土) was added, they were matched and when the King-fire(君火) was added, they have some relationship. But Wind-tree(風木), Dry-metal(燥金), Buble-fire(相火), Cold-water(寒水) was added they were not matched. 2. According to the observation data of rainfall by late 180 years of Seoul; about Taiyun(大運), when the Water-Yun(水運) was greatly exceeded and Fire-Yun(火運) was shorted, in the case of Official-sky(司天), when Wind-Tree(風木) was added, the frequency was highly. So when the Soil-Yun(土運) was greatly exceeded and when Official-sky(司天)was added to the Moisture-soil(濕土), the rainfall was not matched. 3. The relationship of the frequency of the abnormal climate occurrences between Yunqi-promotion-weak(運氣盛衰)and Yunqi-Harmony(運氣同化) and Yunqi-soft-attacking(運氣順逆) in the weather of Korean Peninsula was compared by 1564 to 1863. They were not matched except the case of Yunqi-Harmony(運氣同化). 4. There were some cases which were not matched exactly between the climate predicted by the theory and real climate in 1984, the year of Kap-ga(甲子年). But many correspondence between the observation by the office of meteorology and the prediction by the analysis from Yun-qi-sang-hab(運氣相合) theory. 5. Because meterological phenomena of real world and analysis from the hypothesis of Yunqi(運氣) have no relationship with each other, some of Doctor denied Yunqi(運氣) in the way of matching mechanically. But the thought of Doctor who denied Fortune-spirit(運氣) made promotion for the theory of divination by bringing deeper insight. And it was not only the negative side. 6. In the point of geographical difference, the climate of China, the origination Yunqi theory, is different from the Korea's. Thus some observation errors should be considered. From the basis of this thesis, I hope that the deeper advance would be made into the Korean Yunqi theory.

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An Analysis of Prognostic Factors in the Uterine Cervical Cancer Patients (자궁경부암 환자의 예후인자에 관한 분석)

  • Yang, Dae-Sik;Yoon, Won-Sub;Kim, Tae-Hyun;Kim, Chul-Yong;Choi, Myung-Sun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.300-308
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    • 2000
  • Purpose :The aim of this study is to analysis of suwival and recurrence rates of the uterine cervical carcinoma patients whom received the radiation therapy respectively. The prognostic factors, such as Papanicolaou (Pap) smear, carcinoembriogenic antigen (CEA) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) antigen has been studied. Methods and Materials : From January 1981 to December 1998, eight-hundred twenty-seven uterine carvical cancer patients were treat with radiation therapy. All of the patients were divided into two groups : the radiation therapy only (S2l patients) group and the postoperative radiation therapy (326 patients) group. The age, treatment modality, clinical stage, histopathology, recurrence, follow-up Pap smears, CEA and SCC antigen were used as parameters for the evaluation. The prognostic factors such as survival and recurrence rates were peformed with the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox hazard model, respectively. Median rollow-up was 38.6 months. Results :On the radiation therapy only group, 314 patients (60$\%$) achieved complete response (CR), 47 patients (9$\%$) showed local recurrence (LR), 78 patients (15$\%$) developed distant metastasis (DM). On the Postoperative radiation therapy group, showed 276 Patients (85$\%$) CR, 8 Patients (2$\%$) LR, 37 Patients (11$\%$) DM. The 5-year survival and recurrence rates was evaluated for all parameters. The statistically significant factors for the survival rate in univariate analysis were clinical stage (p=0.0001), treatment modality (p=0.0010), recurrence (p=0.0001), Pap smear (p=0.0329), CEA (p=0.0001) and SCC antigen (p=0.0001). Conclusion: This study indicated that after treatment, the follow-up studies of Pap smear, CEA and SCC antigen were significant parameter and prediction factors for the survival and recurrence of the uterine cervical carcinoma.

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