• 제목/요약/키워드: predicting demand

검색결과 211건 처리시간 0.028초

Use Case에 의한 소프트웨어 규모 예측 방법에 대한 실증적 연구 (An Empirical Study of Software Size Estimation Techniques by Use Case)

  • 서예영;이남용
    • 한국전자거래학회지
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.143-157
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    • 2001
  • There has been a need for predicting development efforts and costs of the system during the early stage of the software process and hundreds of metrics have been proposed for computer software, but not all provide practical support to the software engineer. Some demand measurement that is too complex, others are so esoteric that few real-world professionals have any hope of understanding them, and others violate the basic intuitive notions of what high-quality software really is. It is worthwhile that metrics should be tailored to best accommodate specific products and processes after grasping their good and no good point. This paper describes two size estimation techniques, the Karner technique and the Marchesi technique, and compares and analyzes them with proposed evaluation criteria. Both techniques are to estimate software size analyzed by use case that is mainly described during the object-oriented analysis phase. We also present an empirical comparison of them, both are applied in the Internet Medicine Prescription System. We also propose some guidance for experiments based on our analysis. We believe that it should be facilitating project management more effective by adjusting software metrics properly.

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구조물 조건에 따른 비선형 직접스펙트럼법의 평균오차 특성 (Property of the Mean Errors of Nonlinear Direct Spectrum Method with Structure Parameters)

  • 강병두;전대한;김재웅
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 2003년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.211-218
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    • 2003
  • Most structures are expected to deform beyond the limit of linearly elastic behavior when subjected to strong ground motion. Seismic evaluation of structure requires an estimation of the structural performance in terms of displacement demand imposed by earthquakes on the structure. Nonlinear response history analysis(NRHA) is the most rigorous procedure to compute seismic performance among various inelastic analysis methods. But nonlinear analysis procedures necessitate more practical and reliable tools for predicting seismic behavior of structures. This paper presents a nonlinear direct spectrum method(NDSM) to evaluate seismic performance of structures, without iterative computations, given by the structural initial elastic period and yield strength from the pushover analysis, especially for MDF(multi degree of freedom) system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the accuracy and reliability of this method from a point of view of various earthquakes and structure parameters.

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LPG 탱크로리 수송중 위험성 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Risk Assessment in LPG Transportation by Tank Lorry)

  • 이재준;김윤화;윤성렬;엄성인;백종배;고재욱
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제12권4호
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    • pp.86-92
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    • 1997
  • Demand of LPG and LNG will increase continuously due to high calories, clearness, and convenience for usage. These gases are used widely for power plants, industrial plants, and domestic fuel. But accidents related with gas are increasing in proportion to increment of gas usage. Especially LPG has high ignitability due to weak dispersion to air and accumulation at low place because LPG is heavier than air. There are many hazards during transportation as well as production, storage, and usage of LPG. Commonly, tank lorry is used for inland transportation of LPG. If tank lorry were to raise leakage incidents and then LPG released during transporting, the accidents cause serious effects on the environment as well as human damage of surrounding area. In this study, therefore, hazards which cause LPG of tank lorry to leak during transportation were identified and risk of LPG transportation was assessed quantitatively. Also, the result of this study might be a useful measure for predicting damage and preparing safe transportation strategies of LPG tank lorry.

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지구단위계획에서 사용된 경관영향평가 기법에 관한 연구 (A Study on Landscape Impact Assessment Techniques in District Unit Plan)

  • 봉종진;정영덕;이봉수;조영준
    • 한국주거학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국주거학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.219-222
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    • 2005
  • District unit plan was arranged for rational induction and regulation of development due to increase of demand for comfortable environment and change of recognition of urban view. This study analyzes cases of district unit plan since 2003 and draws the following conclusions to provide basic material necessary for landscape impact assessment and analysis of actual conditions. It used regulation of design factors and analysis of physical index in making view plan and focuses on characteristics of visual perception in predicting impact through simulation. Future landscape impact assessment must establish a variety of indices and application of various techniques.

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온천관광지의 이용동기에 관한 연구 (An Empirical Study on Visiters' Motivation for Hot Spring Resorts)

  • 고동완;이진희;김유일
    • 한국조경학회지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.161-176
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    • 1995
  • Leisure motivation is an important concept in the study of leisure behavior. The purpose of this study was to examine visitors' motivations for hot spring resorts in Korea. The data were collected by questionnaires survey in three hot spring resorts in 1994:Suanbo, Paikam, and Chuksan. The findings of this study are summarized as follows: The eight motivation factors extracted by factor analysis such as; 1)"intellectual needs", 2)'escaping everyday life', 3)'closing nature', 4)'recognition or status', 5)'interaction with others', 6)'health', 7)'family vacation', 8)'hot spring bathing'. The three resorts showed significant deferences in the motivation of visitors. Visitors of Suanbo have high motivation for 'intellectual needs', 'interaction with others', and 'thealth', and visitors of Chuksan for 'closing nature', 'family vacation', and 'hot spring bathing'. This study has proved first, psychological(pushing) factors are more important than pulling factors of resorts, second, in pulling factors, natural sceneries were more important than medicinal properties of the hot springs. And this study found several important implications for predicting visitors' demand in hot spring resorts.

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GPS와 위성통신을 이용한 동기위상 데이터 취득 및 전송장치 개발 (Development of Synchrophasor Data Aquisition and Transmission Systems Using the GPS and the Satellite Network)

  • 권대윤;김호웅;김동성;윤상현
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2007년도 제38회 하계학술대회
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    • pp.598-599
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    • 2007
  • The electricity supply industry for which high stability and quality of power are the primary aim of power company and the first order of business target. As the facilities of generations, transmissions and substations are increased every year, power system becomes more complex and hard to control. The complexity of the power system causes harmful influence on its security and power facilities. Moreover, difficulty of predicting weather condition in these days with its complexity increases the level of uncertainty of energy demand. Wide area online monitoring of power system offers lots of informations and solutions which clear the causes of insecurity in power system. In this paper, we presents the development of synchrophasor data measurement and transmission system using satellite network for power system online monitoring.

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Proposal of An Artificial Intelligence Farm Income Prediction Algorithm based on Time Series Analysis

  • Jang, Eun-Jin;Shin, Seung-Jung
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.98-103
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    • 2021
  • Recently, as the need for food resources has increased both domestically and internationally, support for the agricultural sector for stable food supply and demand is expanding in Korea. However, according to recent media articles, the biggest problem in rural communities is the unstable profit structure. In addition, in order to confirm the profit structure, profit forecast data must be clearly prepared, but there is a lack of auxiliary data for farmers or future returnees to predict farm income. Therefore, in this paper we analyzed data over the past 15 years through time series analysis and proposes an artificial intelligence farm income prediction algorithm that can predict farm household income in the future. If the proposed algorithm is used, it is expected that it can be used as auxiliary data to predict farm profits.

Predicting required licensed spectrum for the future considering big data growth

  • Shayea, Ibraheem;Rahman, Tharek Abd.;Azmi, Marwan Hadri;Han, Chua Tien;Arsad, Arsany
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제41권2호
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    • pp.224-234
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    • 2019
  • This paper proposes a new spectrum forecasting (SF) model to estimate the spectrum demands for future mobile broadband (MBB) services. The model requires five main input metrics, that is, the current available spectrum, site number growth, mobile data traffic growth, average network utilization, and spectrum efficiency growth. Using the proposed SF model, the future MBB spectrum demand for Malaysia in 2020 is forecasted based on the input market data of four major mobile telecommunication operators represented by A-D, which account for approximately 95% of the local mobile market share. Statistical data to generate the five input metrics were obtained from prominent agencies, such as the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission, OpenSignal, Analysys Mason, GSMA, and Huawei. Our forecasting results indicate that by 2020, Malaysia would require approximately 307 MHz of additional spectrum to fulfill the enormous increase in mobile broadband data demands.

GRU 기법을 활용한 서울시 공공자전거 수요예측 모델 개발 (Development of Demand Forecasting Model for Public Bicycles in Seoul Using GRU)

  • 이승운;곽기영
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2022
  • 2020년 1월 국내에 첫 코로나19 확진자가 발생한 후 버스와 지하철 같은 대중교통이 아닌 공공자전거와 같은 개인형 이동수단에 대한 관심이 증가하였다. 서울시에서 운영하는 공공자전거인 '따릉이'에 대한 수요 역시 증가하였다. 본 연구에서는 서울시 공공자전거의 최근 3년간(2019~2021) 시간대별 대여이력을 바탕으로 게이트 순환 유닛(GRU, Gated Recurrent Unit)의 수요예측 모델을 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 GRU 방법의 유용성은 서울시 영등포구 여의도에 위치한 여의나루 1번 출구의 대여이력을 바탕으로 검증하였다. 특히, 동일한 조건에서 다중선형회귀 모델 및 순환신경망 모델들과 이를 비교 분석하였다. 아울러, 모델 개발시 기상요소 이외에 서울시 생활인구를 변수로 활용하여 이에 대한 검증도 함께 진행하였다. 모델의 성능지표로는 MAE와 RMSE를 사용하였고, 이를 통해 본 연구에서 제안하는 GRU 모델의 유용성을 제시하였다. 분석결과 제안한 GRU 모델이 전통적인 기법인 다중선형회귀 모델과 최근 각광받고 있는 LSTM 모델 및 Conv-LSTM 모델보다 예측 정확도가 높게 나타났다. 또한 분석에 소요되는 시간도 GRU 모델이 LSTM 모델, Conv-LSTM 모델보다 짧았다. 본 연구를 통해 서울시 공공자전거의 수요예측을 보다 빠르고 정확하게 하여 향후 재배치 문제 등의 해결에 도움이 될 수 있을 것이다.

해외 출국에 영향을 미치는 온라인 미디어 효과 분석: 아시아 5개국을 중심으로 (Analyzing the Effect of Online media on Overseas Travels: A Case study of Asian 5 countries)

  • 이혜인;문현실;김재경
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.53-74
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    • 2018
  • 해외 시장 의존형 경제구조를 지닌 우리나라에서 관광산업은 국가경제에 중요한 산업으로 이를 육성하기 위해 정확한 관광 수요 예측이 필요하다. 그에 따라 많은 연구들이 출국 수요를 예측하기 위해 노력해왔으며 출국수요에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대해 다각도로 연구가 이루어져 왔다. 특히 정보기술의 발전으로 최근에는 출국자들의 출국지 선택 등 관광객의 의사결정에 온라인 뉴스, 소셜 네트워크 서비스 등의 온라인 미디어가 많은 영향을 끼치고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 온라인 미디어가 발생시키는 구전 효과가 출국 수요에 미치는 영향을 살펴보고 그 영향 관계를 규명하고자 하였다. 온라인 미디어는 쉽게 접근이 가능하고 공유가 활발하다는 측면에서 구전 효과가 발생되어 사용자들의 의사결정에 영향을 주고 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 온라인 미디어를 공적 미디어인 뉴스와 사적 미디어인 블로그로 구분하였으며 실제 아시아 5개국의 출국자 수에 이들 미디어가 미치는 영향 관계를 패널 모형을 통해 분석하였다. 그 결과, 온라인 뉴스의 구전 효과는 출국자 수에 부정적인 영향을 미치지만 블로그의 경우 긍정적 영향 관계를 보였다. 따라서 향후 출국 수요 예측에 있어 온라인 미디어의 구전 효과를 반영해야 하며 이는 미디어의 종류에 따라 차별적으로 적용해야 함을 시사한다. 또한 각 국가별로 온라인 미디어의 특성에 따라 미치는 영향 관계가 차이가 있음을 분석하였다. 즉, 출국 국가에 따라 온라인 미디어의 영향력이 다름에 따라 국가별로 차별적인 예측 및 관리 모형이 필요하다. 본 연구 결과를 통해 관광산업종사자들의 국가와 미디어별 온라인 미디어 기반의 마케팅 전략 수립에 도움을 줄 수 있으리라 기대된다.