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http://dx.doi.org/10.13088/jiis.2022.28.4.001

Development of Demand Forecasting Model for Public Bicycles in Seoul Using GRU  

Lee, Seung-Woon (Graduate School of Business IT, Kookmin University)
Kwahk, Kee-Young (College of Business Administration / Graduate School of Business IT, Kookmin University)
Publication Information
Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems / v.28, no.4, 2022 , pp. 1-25 More about this Journal
Abstract
After the first Covid-19 confirmed case occurred in Korea in January 2020, interest in personal transportation such as public bicycles not public transportation such as buses and subways, increased. The demand for 'Ddareungi', a public bicycle operated by the Seoul Metropolitan Government, has also increased. In this study, a demand prediction model of a GRU(Gated Recurrent Unit) was presented based on the rental history of public bicycles by time zone(2019~2021) in Seoul. The usefulness of the GRU method presented in this study was verified based on the rental history of Around Exit 1 of Yeouido, Yeongdengpo-gu, Seoul. In particular, it was compared and analyzed with multiple linear regression models and recurrent neural network models under the same conditions. In addition, when developing the model, in addition to weather factors, the Seoul living population was used as a variable and verified. MAE and RMSE were used as performance indicators for the model, and through this, the usefulness of the GRU model proposed in this study was presented. As a result of this study, the proposed GRU model showed higher prediction accuracy than the traditional multi-linear regression model and the LSTM model and Conv-LSTM model, which have recently been in the spotlight. Also the GRU model was faster than the LSTM model and the Conv-LSTM model. Through this study, it will be possible to help solve the problem of relocation in the future by predicting the demand for public bicycles in Seoul more quickly and accurately.
Keywords
Public Bicycle; Shared Mobility; Demand Forecasting; Recurrent Neural Network; GRU;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 9  (Citation Analysis)
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