• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.87-98
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• 2022

In recent years, frequent localized heavy rainfalls, which have a lot of rainfall in a short period of time, have been increasingly causing flooding damages. To prevent damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) was developed using the Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and Machine Learning and Probability Matching (PM) techniques using Digital forecast data. HQPF is produced as information on the impact of heavy rainfall to prepare for flooding damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, but there is a tendency to overestimate the low rainfall intensity. In this study, we improved HQPF by expanding the period of machine learning data, analyzing ensemble techniques, and changing the process of Probability Matching (PM) techniques to improve predictive accuracy and over-predictive propensity of HQPF. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of the improved HQPF, we performed the predictive performance verification on heavy rainfall cases caused by the Changma front from August 27, 2021 to September 3, 2021. We found that the improved HQPF showed a significantly improved prediction accuracy for rainfall below 10 mm, as well as the over-prediction tendency, such as predicting the likelihood of occurrence and rainfall area similar to observation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.89-98
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• 2007

In this paper the economic value of weather forecasts is valuated for profit-oriented enterprise decision-making situations. Value is estimated in terms of monetary profits (or benefits) resulted from the forecast user's decision under the specific payoff structure, which is represented by a profit/loss ratio model combined with a decision function and a value score (VS). The forecast user determines a business-related decision based on the probabilistic forecast, the user's subjective reliability of the forecasts, and the payoff structure specific to the user's business environment. The VS curve for a meteorological forecast is specified by a function of the various profit/loss ratios, providing the scaled economic value relative to the value of a perfect forecast. The proposed valuation method based on the profit/loss ratio model and the VS is adapted for hypothetical sets of forecasts and verified for site-specific probability of precipitation forecast of 12 hour and 24 hour-lead time, which is generated from Korea meteorological administration (KMA). The application results show that forecast information with shorter lead time can provide the decision-makers with great benefits and there are ranges of profit/loss ratios in which high subjective reliability of the given forecast is preferred.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.577-589
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• 2015

An unusual long-period and heavy snowfall occurred in the Yeongdong region from 6 to 14 February 2014. This event produced snowfall total of 194.8 cm and the recordbreaking 9-day snowfall duration in the 103-year local record at Gangneung. In this study, satellite-derived cloud-top brightness temperatures from the infrared channel in the atmospheric window ($10{\mu}m{\sim}11{\mu}m$) are examined to find out the characteristics of clouds related with this heavy snowfall event. The analysis results reveal that a majority of precipitation is related with the low-level stratiform clouds whose cloud-top brightness temperatures are distributed from -15 to $-20^{\circ}C$ and their standard deviations over the analysis domain (${\sim}1,000km^2$, 37 satellite pixels) are less than $2^{\circ}C$. It is also found that in the above temperature range precipitation intensity tends to increase with colder temperature. When the temperatures are warmer than $-15^{\circ}C$, there is no precipitation or light precipitation. Furthermore this relation is confirmed from the examination of some other heavy snowfall events and light precipitation events which are related with the low-level stratiform clouds. This precipitation-brightness temperature relation may be explained by the combined effect of ice crystal growth processes: the maximum in dendritic ice-crystal growth occurs at about $-15^{\circ}C$ and the activation of ice nuclei begins below temperatures from approximately -7 to $-16^{\circ}C$, depending on the composition of the ice nuclei.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.623-637
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• 2018

This study investigates the effects of horizontal resolution, cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS), and probability forecasting on precipitation forecasts over the Korean Peninsula from 00 UTC 15 August to 12 UTC 14 September 2013, using the limited-area ensemble prediction system (LEPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. To investigate the effect of resolution, the control members of the LEPS with 1.5- and 3-km resolution were compared. Two 3-km experiments with and without the CPS were conducted for the control member, because a 3-km resolution lies within the gray zone. For probability forecasting, 12 ensemble members with 3-km resolution were run using the LEPS. The forecast performance was evaluated for both the whole study period and precipitation cases categorized by synoptic forcing. The performance of precipitation forecasts using the 1.5-km resolution was better than that using the 3-km resolution for both the total period and individual cases. The result of the 3-km resolution experiment with the CPS did not differ significantly from that without it. The 3-km ensemble mean and probability matching (PM) performed better than the 3-km control member, regardless of the use of the CPS. The PM complemented the defect of the ensemble mean, which better predicts precipitation regions but underestimates precipitation amount by averaging ensembles, compared to the control member. Further, both the 3-km ensemble mean and PM outperformed the 1.5-km control member, which implies that the lower performance of the 3-km control member compared to the 1.5-km control member was complemented by probability forecasting.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.21 no.B
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• pp.241-248
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• 2001

Normally at a flood season the operation of the dam depends on a short range weather forecast that makes many difficulties of the management at a dry season. It is needed to study the pattern of the long period rainfall. The concept of PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation) was used for designing dam. From the concept, this study is applied the concept of monthly probable maximum precipitation for operating dam. It can be possible to let us know the appropriateness of a limiting water level at a rainy season. For the operation of dam at a dry season this study can predict roughly the flood season's pattern of precipitation by month or period, therfore the prediction of precipitation can rise efficient operation of a dam.

• Atmosphere
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.481-495
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• 2011

This study is performed to consider the threshold values of heavy rain warning in Korea using 98 surface meteorological station data and 590 Automatic Weather System stations (AWSs), damage data of National Emergency Management Agency for the period of 2005 to 2009. It is in need to arrange new criteria for heavy rain considering concept of rainfall intensity and rainfall damage to reflect the changed characteristics of rainfall according to the climate change. Rainfall values from the most frequent rainfall damage are at 30 mm/1 hr, 60 mm/3 hr, 70 mm/6 hr, and 110 mm/12 hr, respectively. The cumulative probability of damage occurrences of one in two due to heavy rain shows up at 20 mm/1 hr, 50 mm/3 hr, 80 mm/6 hr, and 110 mm/12 hr, respectively. When the relationship between threshold values of heavy rain warning and the possibility of rainfall damage is investigated, rainfall values for high connectivity between heavy rain warning criteria and the possibility of rainfall damage appear at 30 mm/1 hr, 50 mm/3 hr, 80 mm/6 hr, and 100 m/12 hr, respectively. It is proper to adopt the daily maximum precipitation intensity of 6 and 12 hours, because 6 hours rainfall might be include the concept of rainfall intensity for very-short-term and short-term unexpectedly happened rainfall and 12 hours rainfall could maintain the connectivity of the previous heavy rain warning system and represent long-term continuously happened rainfall. The optimum combinations of criteria for heavy rain warning of 6 and 12 hours are 80 mm/6 hr or 100 mm/12 hr, and 70 mm/6 hr or 110 mm/12 hr.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.187-200
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• 2018

The heavy snowfall phenomenon with thunder and lightning occurred in Yeongdong coastal region on 20 January 2017. Amount of snow on that day was a maximum of 47 cm and was concentrated in a short time (2 hours) at the Yeongdong coastal area. The mechanism of thundersnow was investigated to describe in detail using observational data and numerical simulation (Weather Research and Forecast, WRF) applied lightning option. The results show that a convective cloud occurred at the Yeongdong coastal area. The east wind flow was generated and the pressure gradient force was maximized by the rapidly developed cyclone. The cold and dry air in the upper atmosphere has descended (so called tropopause folding) atmospheric lower layer at precipitation peak time (1200 LST). In addition, latent heat in the lower atmosphere layer and warm sea surface temperature caused thermal instability. The convective cloud caused by the strong thermal instability was developed up to 6 km at that time. And the backdoor cold front was determined by the change characteristics of meteorological elements and shear line in the east sea. Instability indexes such as Total totals Index (TT) and Lightning Potential Index (LPI) are also confirmed as one of good predictability indicates for the explosive precipitation of convective rainfall.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.35-45
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• 2016

Initialization of the global seasonal forecast system is as much important as the quality of the embedded climate model for the climate prediction in sub-seasonal time scale. Recent studies have emphasized the important role of soil moisture initialization, suggesting a significant increase in the prediction skill particularly in the mid-latitude land area where the influence of sea surface temperature in the tropics is less crucial and the potential predictability is supplemented by land-atmosphere interaction. This study developed a new soil moisture initialization method applicable to the KMA operational seasonal forecasting system. The method includes first the long-term integration of the offline land surface model driven by observed atmospheric forcing and precipitation. This soil moisture reanalysis is given for the initial state in the ensemble seasonal forecasts through a simple anomaly initialization technique to avoid the simulation drift caused by the systematic model bias. To evaluate the impact of the soil moisture initialization, two sets of long-term, 10-member ensemble experiment runs have been conducted for 1996~2009. As a result, the soil moisture initialization improves the prediction skill of surface air temperature significantly at the zero to one month forecast lead (up to ~60 days forecast lead), although the skill increase in precipitation is less significant. This study suggests that improvements of the prediction in the sub-seasonal timescale require the improvement in the quality of initial data as well as the adequate treatment of the model systematic bias.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.99-119
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• 2018

Unit load factor, which is used for the quantification of non-point pollution in watersheds, has the limitation that it does not reflect spatial characteristics of soil, topography and temporal change due to the interannual or seasonal variability of precipitation. Therefore, we developed the method to estimate a watershed-scale non-point pollutant load using seasonal forecast data that forecast changes of precipitation up to 6 months from present time for watershed-scale water quality management. To establish a preemptive countermeasure against non-point pollution sources, it is possible to consider the unstructured management plan which is possible over several months timescale. Notably, it is possible to apply various management methods such as control of sowing and irrigation timing, control of irrigation through water management, and control of fertilizer through fertilization management. In this study, APEX-Paddy model, which can consider the farming method in field scale, was applied to evaluate the applicability of seasonal forecast data. It was confirmed that the rainfall amount during the growing season is an essential factor in the non-point pollution pollutant load. The APEX-Paddy model for quantifying non-point pollution according to various farming methods in paddy fields simulated similarly the annual variation tendency of TN and TP pollutant loads in rice paddies but showed a tendency to underestimate load quantitatively.

• Atmosphere
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.297-307
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• 2009

The synoptic structures and the dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of Changma in 2007 are investigated using the ECMWF analysis data and the radiosonde data from KEOP-2007 IOP. The enhancement of the North-Pacific High into the Korean peninsula and the retreat of the Okhotsk High are shown during the onset of Changma and the change of wind component from southwesterly to northwesterly is appeared during the end of Changma. The baroclinic atmosphere is dominant during Changma at most regions over the Korean peninsula except at Gosan and Sokcho. The quasi-barotropic atmosphere is induced at Gosan by warm air mass and Sokcho by cold air mass. Precipitation in the Korean peninsula occurs when dynamic instability is strengthened as the baroclinic and qusi-barotropic structure is weakened. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed to find the dominant modes of variability in Changma. The first EOF explains the onset of Changma. The second EOF is related to the discrimination for existence and nonexistence of precipitation during Changma period according to the alternation of equivalent potential temperature between middle and lower atmosphere.