• Title/Summary/Keyword: potential predictability

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One-month lead dam inflow forecast using climate indices based on tele-connection (원격상관 기후지수를 활용한 1개월 선행 댐유입량 예측)

  • Cho, Jaepil;Jung, Il Won;Kim, Chul Gyium;Kim, Tae Guk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.361-372
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    • 2016
  • Reliable long-term dam inflow prediction is necessary for efficient multi-purpose dam operation in changing climate. Since 2000s the teleconnection between global climate indices (e.g., ENSO) and local hydroclimate regimes have been widely recognized throughout the world. To date many hydrologists focus on predicting future hydrologic conditions using lag teleconnection between streamflow and climate indices. This study investigated the utility of teleconneciton for predicting dam inflow with 1-month lead time at Andong dam basin. To this end 40 global climate indices from NOAA were employed to identify potential predictors of dam inflow, areal averaged precipitation, temperature of Andong dam basin. This study compared three different approaches; 1) dam inflow prediction using SWAT model based on teleconneciton-based precipitation and temperature forecast (SWAT-Forecasted), 2) dam inflow prediction using teleconneciton between dam inflow and climate indices (CIR-Forecasted), and 3) dam inflow prediction based on the rank of current observation in the historical dam inflow (Rank-Observed). Our results demonstrated that CIR-Forecasted showed better predictability than the other approaches, except in December. This is because uncertainties attributed to temporal downscaling from monthly to daily for precipitation and temperature forecasts and hydrologic modeling using SWAT can be ignored from dam inflow forecast through CIR-Forecasted approach. This study indicates that 1-month lead dam inflow forecast based on teleconneciton could provide useful information on Andong dam operation.

Comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) and holographic quantitative structure-activity relationship (HQSAR) on the growth inhibition activity of the herbicidal 3-phenyl-5-(3,7-dichloro-8-quinolinyl)-1,2,4-oxadiazole derivatives (제초성 3-Phenyl-5-(3,7-dichloro-8-quinolinyl)-1,2,4-oxadiazole 유도체들의 생장 저해활성에 관한 비교 분자장 분석 (CoMFA)과 분자 홀로그램 구조-활성관계 (HQSAR))

  • Sung, Nack-Do;Lee, Sang-Ho;Song, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Hyoung-Rae
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.108-116
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    • 2003
  • A series of new quinclorac family, herbicidal 3-phenyl-5-(3,7-dichloro-8-quinolinyl)-1,2,4-oxadiazole derivatives as substrate were synthesized and their growth inhibition activity $(pI_{50})$ against root and shoot of rice plant (Oryza sativa L.) and barnyard grass (Echinochloa crus-galli) were determined. And then comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) and molecular holographic quantitative structure- activity relationship (HQSAR) were compared in terms of their potential for predictiability. The statistical results were suggested that HQSAR based model had better predictability than CoMFA model. The selective factors to remove barnyard grass take electron withdrawing groups which can be created positive charge and steric bulky on the phenyl ring. Results revealed that the unknown 2,6-dichloro-substituent, U5 and 2,4,6-trichloro-substituent, U6(${\Delta}pI_{50}$=CoMFA: 1.18 & HQSAR: 1.82) were predicted as compound with higher activity and selectivity.

POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY BESIDES ELECTRICITY GENERATION: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

  • Gauthier, Jean-Claude;Ballot, Bernard;Lebrun, Jean-Philippe;Lecomte, Michel;Hittner, Dominique;Carre, Frank
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2007
  • Energy supply is increasingly showing up as a major issue for electricity supply, transportation, settlement, and process heat industrial supply including hydrogen production. Nuclear power is part of the solution. For electricity supply, as exemplified in Finland and France, the EPR brings an immediate answer; HTR could bring another solution in some specific cases. For other supply, mostly heat, the HTR brings a solution inaccessible to conventional nuclear power plants for very high or even high temperature. As fossil fuels costs increase and efforts to avoid generation of Greenhouse gases are implemented, a market for nuclear generated process heat will be developed. Following active developments in the 80's, HTR have been put on the back burner up to 5 years ago. Light water reactors are widely dominating the nuclear production field today. However, interest in the HTR technology was renewed in the past few years. Several commercial projects are actively promoted, most of them aiming at electricity production. ANTARES is today AREVA's response to the cogeneration market. It distinguishes itself from other concepts with its indirect cycle design powering a combined cycle power plant. Several reasons support this design choice, one of the most important of which is the design flexibility to adapt readily to combined heat and power applications. From the start, AREVA made the choice of such flexibility with the belief that the HTR market is not so much in competition with LWR in the sole electricity market but in the specific added value market of cogeneration and process heat. In view of the volatility of the costs of fossil fuels, AREVA's choice brings to the large industrial heat applications the fuel cost predictability of nuclear fuel with the efficiency of a high temperature heat source tree of Greenhouse gases emissions. The ANTARES module produces 600 MWth which can be split into the required process heat, the remaining power drives an adapted prorated electric plant. Depending on the process heat temperature and power needs, up to 80% of the nuclear heat is converted into useful power. An important feature of the design is the standardization of the heat source, as independent as possible of the process heat application. This should expedite licensing. The essential conditions for success include: ${\bullet}$ Timely adapted licensing process and regulations, codes and standards for such application and design ${\bullet}$ An industry oriented R&D program to meet the technological challenges making the best use of the international collaboration. Gen IV could be the vector ${\bullet}$ Identification of an end user(or a consortium of) willing to fund a FOAK

Hi, KIA! Classifying Emotional States from Wake-up Words Using Machine Learning (Hi, KIA! 기계 학습을 이용한 기동어 기반 감성 분류)

  • Kim, Taesu;Kim, Yeongwoo;Kim, Keunhyeong;Kim, Chul Min;Jun, Hyung Seok;Suk, Hyeon-Jeong
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.91-104
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    • 2021
  • This study explored users' emotional states identified from the wake-up words -"Hi, KIA!"- using a machine learning algorithm considering the user interface of passenger cars' voice. We targeted four emotional states, namely, excited, angry, desperate, and neutral, and created a total of 12 emotional scenarios in the context of car driving. Nine college students participated and recorded sentences as guided in the visualized scenario. The wake-up words were extracted from whole sentences, resulting in two data sets. We used the soundgen package and svmRadial method of caret package in open source-based R code to collect acoustic features of the recorded voices and performed machine learning-based analysis to determine the predictability of the modeled algorithm. We compared the accuracy of wake-up words (60.19%: 22%~81%) with that of whole sentences (41.51%) for all nine participants in relation to the four emotional categories. Accuracy and sensitivity performance of individual differences were noticeable, while the selected features were relatively constant. This study provides empirical evidence regarding the potential application of the wake-up words in the practice of emotion-driven user experience in communication between users and the artificial intelligence system.

Health Risk Management using Feature Extraction and Cluster Analysis considering Time Flow (시간흐름을 고려한 특징 추출과 군집 분석을 이용한 헬스 리스크 관리)

  • Kang, Ji-Soo;Chung, Kyungyong;Jung, Hoill
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.99-104
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we propose health risk management using feature extraction and cluster analysis considering time flow. The proposed method proceeds in three steps. The first is the pre-processing and feature extraction step. It collects user's lifelog using a wearable device, removes incomplete data, errors, noise, and contradictory data, and processes missing values. Then, for feature extraction, important variables are selected through principal component analysis, and data similar to the relationship between the data are classified through correlation coefficient and covariance. In order to analyze the features extracted from the lifelog, dynamic clustering is performed through the K-means algorithm in consideration of the passage of time. The new data is clustered through the similarity distance measurement method based on the increment of the sum of squared errors. Next is to extract information about the cluster by considering the passage of time. Therefore, using the health decision-making system through feature clusters, risks able to managed through factors such as physical characteristics, lifestyle habits, disease status, health care event occurrence risk, and predictability. The performance evaluation compares the proposed method using Precision, Recall, and F-measure with the fuzzy and kernel-based clustering. As a result of the evaluation, the proposed method is excellently evaluated. Therefore, through the proposed method, it is possible to accurately predict and appropriately manage the user's potential health risk by using the similarity with the patient.

Performance Assessment of Two-stream Convolutional Long- and Short-term Memory Model for September Arctic Sea Ice Prediction from 2001 to 2021 (Two-stream Convolutional Long- and Short-term Memory 모델의 2001-2021년 9월 북극 해빙 예측 성능 평가)

  • Chi, Junhwa
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_1
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    • pp.1047-1056
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    • 2022
  • Sea ice, frozen sea water, in the Artic is a primary indicator of global warming. Due to its importance to the climate system, shipping-route navigation, and fisheries, Arctic sea ice prediction has gained increased attention in various disciplines. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), motivated by a desire to develop more autonomous and efficient future predictions, have led to the development of new sea ice prediction models as alternatives to conventional numerical and statistical prediction models. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the two-stream convolutional long-and short-term memory (TS-ConvLSTM) AI model, which is designed for learning both global and local characteristics of the Arctic sea ice changes, for the minimum September Arctic sea ice from 2001 to 2021, and to show the possibility for an operational prediction system. Although the TS-ConvLSTM model generally increased the prediction performance as training data increased, predictability for the marginal ice zone, 5-50% concentration, showed a negative trend due to increasing first-year sea ice and warming. Additionally, a comparison of sea ice extent predicted by the TS-ConvLSTM with the median Sea Ice Outlooks (SIOs) submitted to the Sea Ice Prediction Network has been carried out. Unlike the TS-ConvLSTM, the median SIOs did not show notable improvements as time passed (i.e., the amount of training data increased). Although the TS-ConvLSTM model has shown the potential for the operational sea ice prediction system, learning more spatio-temporal patterns in the difficult-to-predict natural environment for the robust prediction system should be considered in future work.

Atmospheric Vertical Structure of Heavy Rainfall System during the 2010 Summer Intensive Observation Period over Seoul Metropolitan Area (2010년 여름철 수도권 집중관측기간에 나타난 호우 시스템의 대기연직구조)

  • Kim, Do-Woo;Kim, Yeon-Hee;Kim, Ki-Hoon;Shin, Seung-Sook;Kim, Dong-Kyun;Hwang, Yoon-Jeong;Park, Jong-Im;Choi, Da-Young;Lee, Yong-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.148-161
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    • 2012
  • The intensive observation (ProbeX-2010) with 6-hour launches of radiosonde was performed over Seoul metropolitan area (Dongducheon, Incheon Airport, and Yangpyeong) from 13 Aug. to 3 Sep. 2010. Five typical heavy rainfall patterns occurred consecutively which are squall line, stationary front, remote tropical cyclone (TC), tropical depression, and typhoon patterns. On 15 Aug. 03 KST, when squall line developed over Seoul metropolitan area, dry mid-level air was drawn over warm and moist low-level air, inducing strong convective instability. From 23 to 26 Aug and from 27 to 29 Aug. Rainfall event occurred influenced by stationary front and remote TC, respectively. During the stationary frontal rainy period, thermal instability was dominant in the beginning stage, but dynamic instability became strong in the latter stage. Especially, heavy rainfall occurred on 25 Aug. when southerly low level jet formed over the Yellow Sea. During the rainy period by the remote TC, thermal and dynamic instability sustained together. Especially, heavy rainfall event occurred on 29 Aug. when the tropical air with high equivalent potential temperature (>345 K) occupied the deep low-middle level. On 27 Aug. and 2 Sep. tropical depression and typhoon Kompasu affected Seoul metropolitan area, respectively. During these events, dynamic instability was very strong.

A 15-year clinical retrospective study of Br${\aa}$nemark implants (Br${\aa}$nemark 임플란트의 15년 임상적 후향 연구)

  • Park, Hyo-Jin;Cho, Young-Ye;Kim, Jong-Eun;Choi, Yong-Geun;Lee, Jeong-Yol;Shin, Sang-Wan
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: This study was to compare the cumulative survival rate (CSR) of Br${\aa}$nemark machined surface implants and TiUnite$^{TM}$ imlants and to analyze association between risk factors and the CSR of the implants. Materials and methods: A retrospective study design was used to collect long-term follow-up clinical data from dental records of 156 patients treated with 541 Br${\aa}$nemark machined and TiUnite$^{TM}$ implants at Korea University Guro hospital in South Korea from 1993 through 2008. Machined implant and TiUnite$^{TM}$ implant were compared by CSR. Exposure variables such as gender, systemic disease, location, implant length, diameter, prosthesis type, opposing occlusion type, date of implant placement, type of edentulous space, abutment type, existence of splinting with natural teeth, and existence of cantilever were collected. Life table analysis was undertaken to examine the CSR. Cox regression method was conducted to assess the association between potential risk factors and overall CSR (${\alpha}$=.05). Results: Patient ages ranged from 16 to 75 years old (mean age, 51 years old). Implants were more frequently placed in men than women (94 men versus 63 women). Since 1993, 264 Br${\aa}$nemark machined implants were inserted in 79 patients and since 2001, 277 TiUnite$^{TM}$ implants were inserted in 77 patients. A total survival rate of 86.07% was observed in Br${\aa}$nemark and Nobel Biocare TiUnite$^{TM}$ during 15 years. A survival rate of machined implant during 15 years was 82.89% and that of TiUnite$^{TM}$ implant during 5 years was 98.74%. The implant CSR revealed lower rates association with several risk factors such as, systemic disease, other accompanied surgery, implant location, and Kennedy classification. Conclusion: Clinical performance of Br${\aa}$nemark machined and TiUnite$^{TM}$ implant demonstrated a high level of predictability. In this study, TiUnite$^{TM}$ implant was more successful than machined implant. The implant CSR was associated with several risk factors.

Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation (보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

Optimal Selection of Classifier Ensemble Using Genetic Algorithms (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 분류자 앙상블의 최적 선택)

  • Kim, Myung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 2010
  • Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. It is a method for finding a highly accurateclassifier on the training set by constructing and combining an ensemble of weak classifiers, each of which needs only to be moderately accurate on the training set. Ensemble learning has received considerable attention from machine learning and artificial intelligence fields because of its remarkable performance improvement and flexible integration with the traditional learning algorithms such as decision tree (DT), neural networks (NN), and SVM, etc. In those researches, all of DT ensemble studies have demonstrated impressive improvements in the generalization behavior of DT, while NN and SVM ensemble studies have not shown remarkable performance as shown in DT ensembles. Recently, several works have reported that the performance of ensemble can be degraded where multiple classifiers of an ensemble are highly correlated with, and thereby result in multicollinearity problem, which leads to performance degradation of the ensemble. They have also proposed the differentiated learning strategies to cope with performance degradation problem. Hansen and Salamon (1990) insisted that it is necessary and sufficient for the performance enhancement of an ensemble that the ensemble should contain diverse classifiers. Breiman (1996) explored that ensemble learning can increase the performance of unstable learning algorithms, but does not show remarkable performance improvement on stable learning algorithms. Unstable learning algorithms such as decision tree learners are sensitive to the change of the training data, and thus small changes in the training data can yield large changes in the generated classifiers. Therefore, ensemble with unstable learning algorithms can guarantee some diversity among the classifiers. To the contrary, stable learning algorithms such as NN and SVM generate similar classifiers in spite of small changes of the training data, and thus the correlation among the resulting classifiers is very high. This high correlation results in multicollinearity problem, which leads to performance degradation of the ensemble. Kim,s work (2009) showedthe performance comparison in bankruptcy prediction on Korea firms using tradition prediction algorithms such as NN, DT, and SVM. It reports that stable learning algorithms such as NN and SVM have higher predictability than the unstable DT. Meanwhile, with respect to their ensemble learning, DT ensemble shows the more improved performance than NN and SVM ensemble. Further analysis with variance inflation factor (VIF) analysis empirically proves that performance degradation of ensemble is due to multicollinearity problem. It also proposes that optimization of ensemble is needed to cope with such a problem. This paper proposes a hybrid system for coverage optimization of NN ensemble (CO-NN) in order to improve the performance of NN ensemble. Coverage optimization is a technique of choosing a sub-ensemble from an original ensemble to guarantee the diversity of classifiers in coverage optimization process. CO-NN uses GA which has been widely used for various optimization problems to deal with the coverage optimization problem. The GA chromosomes for the coverage optimization are encoded into binary strings, each bit of which indicates individual classifier. The fitness function is defined as maximization of error reduction and a constraint of variance inflation factor (VIF), which is one of the generally used methods to measure multicollinearity, is added to insure the diversity of classifiers by removing high correlation among the classifiers. We use Microsoft Excel and the GAs software package called Evolver. Experiments on company failure prediction have shown that CO-NN is effectively applied in the stable performance enhancement of NNensembles through the choice of classifiers by considering the correlations of the ensemble. The classifiers which have the potential multicollinearity problem are removed by the coverage optimization process of CO-NN and thereby CO-NN has shown higher performance than a single NN classifier and NN ensemble at 1% significance level, and DT ensemble at 5% significance level. However, there remain further research issues. First, decision optimization process to find optimal combination function should be considered in further research. Secondly, various learning strategies to deal with data noise should be introduced in more advanced further researches in the future.