• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.55 no.2
• /
• pp.164-172
• /
• 2022

Objectives: We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016. Methods: In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used. Results: The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran's provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran's provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years. Conclusions: The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran's northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.25-41
• /
• 2011

Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are being recognized as competitive tools as compared with other data mining techniques for solving pattern recognition or classification decision problems. Furthermore, many researches, in particular, have proved them more powerful than traditional artificial neural networks (ANNs) (Amendolia et al., 2003; Huang et al., 2004, Huang et al., 2005; Tay and Cao, 2001; Min and Lee, 2005; Shin et al., 2005; Kim, 2003).The classification decision, such as a binary or multi-class decision problem, used by any classifier, i.e. data mining techniques is so cost-sensitive particularly in financial classification problems such as the credit ratings that if the credit ratings are misclassified, a terrible economic loss for investors or financial decision makers may happen. Therefore, it is necessary to convert the outputs of the classifier into wellcalibrated posterior probabilities-based multiclass credit ratings according to the bankruptcy probabilities. However, SVMs basically do not provide such probabilities. So it required to use any method to create the probabilities (Platt, 1999; Drish, 2001). This paper applied AdaBoost algorithm-based support vector machines (SVMs) into a bankruptcy prediction as a binary classification problem for the IT companies in Korea and then performed the multi-class credit ratings of the companies by making a normal distribution shape of posterior bankruptcy probabilities from the loss functions extracted from the SVMs. Our proposed approach also showed that their methods can minimize the misclassification problems by adjusting the credit grade interval ranges on condition that each credit grade for credit loan borrowers has its own credit risk, i.e. bankruptcy probability.

• Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
• /
• v.30 no.3
• /
• pp.489-494
• /
• 2003

Odontomas are the common type of odontogenic tumors and generally they are asymptomatic, depending upon size, location and their limited growth potential. they are rarely diagnosed before the second decade of life, and the frequently lead to impaction or delayed eruption of permanent teeth. Odontomas are classified of compound as compound or complex by morphology. Complex odontomas are unorganized masses of odontogenic tissues, morphologically not resembling the teeth, account for approximately 25 percent of all odontomas, 22 percent of odontogenic tumor of the jaws, and have a predilection for the posterior mandible in males. The etiology of odontomas is unknown, although local trauma, infection, and genetic factors have been suggested. Usually, treatment of odontoma is conservative sugical removal and their is little probability of recurrence. This paper describes two cases of complex odontomas diagnosed in children due to impaction of maxillary first molar in all cases, the surgical excision of the lesions was performed. Follow-up after 2 years, showed spontaneous eruption of the first permanent molar to the occlusal plane.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.47 no.10
• /
• pp.853-865
• /
• 2014

Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship need to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated modeling process and inputs. However, the systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, two major innovations are introduced to address this situation. The first is the use of a Hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis to better convey uncertainties associated with the parameters of probability density function to the dam risk analysis. The second is the use of Bayesian model coupled HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. A reservoir routing analysis with the existing operation rule was performed to convert the inflow scenarios into water surface level scenarios. Performance functions for dam risk model was finally employed to estimate hydrologic dam risk analysis. An application to the Dam in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable estimates of dam safety, and an assessment of their sensitivity to the initial water surface level.

• Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
• /
• v.34 no.4
• /
• pp.651-657
• /
• 2007

Odontomas are the common type of odontogenic tumors and generally are asymptomatic and frequently lead to impaction or delayed eruption of permanent teeth. They are composed of enamel, dentin, cementum and pulp tissue and are divided into compound and complex according to the morphology of the hard tissues. Compound odontomas consist of varying numbers of small toothlike structure and have a predilection for the maxillary anterior regions. Complex odontomas consist of an unorganized mass of odontogenic tissues and comprise approximately 25 percent of all odontomas and have a predilection for the mandibular posterior regions. The etiology of odontomas is uncertain but hypothesized to involve local trauma, infection and genetic factors. Treatment of odontoma is conservative surgical removal and are little probability of recurrence. These two cases were about the patients with delayed eruption of mandibular first molar and mandibular lateral incisor. We surgically removed odontoma, exposed impacted tooth and guided impacted tooth into normal position by orthodontic traction. At the completion of traction, the mandibular first molar and mandibular lateral incisor was positioned fairly within the arch and complications such as root resorption were not observed.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.25-46
• /
• 2020

This paper presents ordinal probit semiparametric regression models using Bayesian Spectral Analysis Regression (BSAR) method. Ordinal probit regression is a way of modeling ordinal responses - usually more than two categories - by connecting the probability of falling into each category explained by a combination of available covariates using a probit (an inverse function of normal cumulative distribution function) link. The Bayesian probit model facilitates posterior sampling by bringing a latent variable following normal distribution, therefore, the responses are categorized by the cut-off points according to values of latent variables. In this paper, we extend the latent variable approach to a semiparametric model for the Bayesian ordinal probit regression with nonparametric functions using a spectral representation of Gaussian processes based BSAR method. The latent variable is decomposed into a parametric component and a nonparametric component with or without a shape constraint for modeling ordinal responses and predicting outcomes more flexibly. We illustrate the proposed methods with simulation studies in comparison with existing methods and real data analysis applied to a Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2016 for investigating nonparametric relationship between smoking behavior and coffee intake.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.22 no.2
• /
• pp.135-140
• /
• 2012

The mirror neuron system in the cerebrum, which are handled by visual information-based imitative learning. When we observe the observer's range of mirror neuron system, we can assume intention of performance through progress of neural activation as specific range, in include of partially hidden range. It is goal of our paper that imitative learning is applied to 3D vision-based intelligent system. We have experiment as stereo camera-based restoration about acquired 3D image our previous research Using Optical flow, unscented Kalman filter. At this point, 3D input image is sequential continuous image as including of partially hidden range. We used Hidden Markov Model to perform the intention recognition about performance as result of restoration-based hidden range. The dynamic inference function about sequential input data have compatible properties such as hand gesture recognition include of hidden range. In this paper, for proposed intention recognition, we already had a simulation about object outline and feature extraction in the previous research, we generated temporal continuous feature vector about feature extraction and when we apply to Hidden Markov Model, make a result of simulation about hand gesture classification according to intention pattern. We got the result of hand gesture classification as value of posterior probability, and proved the accuracy outstandingness through the result.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
• /
• v.60 no.5
• /
• pp.577-583
• /
• 2017

Objective : Laminoplasty is an effective surgical method for treating cervical degenerative disease. However, postoperative complications such as kyphosis, restriction of neck motion, and instability are often reported. Despite sufficient preoperative lordosis, this procedure often aggravates the lordotic curve of the cervical spine and straightens cervical alignment. Hence, it is important to examine preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative kyphotic alignment changes. Our study aimed to investigate preoperative radiologic parameters associated with kyphotic deformity post laminoplasty. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 49 patients who underwent open door laminoplasty for cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) or ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) at Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital between January 2011 and December 2015. Inclusion criteria were as follows : 1) preoperative diagnosis of OPLL or CSM, 2) no previous history of cervical spinal surgery, cervical trauma, tumor, or infection, 3) minimum of one-year follow-up post laminoplasty with proper radiologic examinations performed in outpatient clinics, and 4) cases showing C7 and T1 vertebral body in the preoperative cervical sagittal plane. The radiologic parameters examined included C2-C7 Cobb angles, T1 slope, C2-C7 sagittal vertical axis (SVA), range of motion (ROM) from C2-C7, segmental instability, and T2 signal change observed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Clinical factors examined included preoperative modified Japanese Orthopedic Association scores, disease classification, duration of symptoms, and the range of operation levels. Results : Mean preoperative sagittal alignment was $13.01^{\circ}$ lordotic; $6.94^{\circ}$ lordotic postoperatively. Percentage of postoperative kyphosis was 80%. Patients were subdivided into two groups according to postoperative Cobb angle change; a control group (n=22) and kyphotic group (n=27). The kyphotic group consisted of patients with more than $5^{\circ}$ kyphotic angle change postoperatively. There were no differences in age, sex, C2-C7 Cobb angle, T1 slope, C2-C7 SVA, ROM from C2-C7, segmental instability, or T2 signal change. Multiple regression analysis revealed T1 slope had a strong relationship with postoperative cervical kyphosis. Likewise, correlation analysis revealed there was a statistical significance between T1 slope and postoperative Cobb angle change (p=0.035), and that there was a statistically significant relationship between T1 slope and C2-C7 SVA (p=0.001). Patients with higher preoperative T1 slope demonstrated loss of lordotic curvature postoperatively. Conclusion : Laminoplasty has a high probability of aggravating sagittal balance of the cervical spine. T1 slope is a good predictor of postoperative kyphotic changes of the cervical spine. Similarly, T1 slope is strongly correlated with C2-C7 SVA.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
• /
• v.64 no.4
• /
• pp.575-584
• /
• 2021

Objective : Cervical expansive laminoplasty is an effective surgical method to address multilevel cervical spinal stenosis. During surgery, the spinous processes of C2 and C7 are usually preserved to keep the insertion points of the cervical musculature and nuchal ligament intact. In this regard, dome-like laminectomy (undercutting of C7 lamina) instead of laminoplasty is performed on C7 in selected cases. However, resection of the lamina can weaken the C7 lamina, and stress fractures may occur, but this complication has not been characterized in the literature. The objective of the present study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors for C7 laminar fracture after C7 dome-like laminectomy and its impact on clinical and radiological outcomes. Methods : Patients who underwent cervical open-door laminoplasty combined with C7 dome-like laminectomy (n=123) were classified according to the presence of C7 laminar fracture. Clinical parameters (neck/arm pain score and neck disability index) and radiologic parameters (C2-7 angle, C2-7 sagittal vertical axis, and C7-T1 angle) were compared between the groups preoperatively and at postoperatively at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. Risk factors for complications were evaluated, and a formula estimating C7 fracture risk was suggested. Results : C7 lamina fracture occurred in 32/123 (26%) patients and occurred at the bilateral isthmus in 29 patients and at the spinolaminar junction in three patients. All fractures appeared on X-ray within 3 months postoperatively, but patients did not present any neurological deterioration. The fracture spontaneously healed in 27/32 (84%) patients at 1 year and in 29/32 (91%) at 2 years. During follow-up, clinical outcomes were not significantly different between the groups. However, patients with C7 fractures showed a more lordotic C2-7 angle and kyphotic C7-T1 angle than patients without C7 fractures. C7 fracture was significantly associated with the extent of bone removal. By incorporating significant factors, the probability of C7 laminar fracture could be assessed with the formula 'Risk score = 1.08 × depth (%) + 1.03 × length (%, of the posterior height of C7 vertebral body)', and a cut-off value of 167.9% demonstrated a sensitivity of 90.3% and a specificity of 65.1% (area under the curve, 0.81). Conclusion : C7 laminar fracture can occur after C7 dome-like laminectomy when a substantial amount of lamina is resected. Although C7 fractures may not cause deleterious clinical outcomes, they can lead to an unharmonized cervical curvature. The chance of C7 fracture should be discussed in the shared decision-making process.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.132-144
• /
• 2023

Recently, the frequency and intensity of heat waves due to the increase in climate change temperature are increasing. Therefore, this study tried to compare the evaluation process and evaluation results of the heat wave disaster evaluation, which is the government's analysis of the heat wave disaster vulnerability and the risk evaluation method recently emphasized by the IPCC. The analysis of climate change disaster vulnerability is evaluated based on manuals and guidelines prepared by the government. Risk evaluation can be evaluated as the product of the possibility of a disaster and its impact, and it is evaluated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation based on Bayesian estimation method, which uses prior information to infer posterior probability. As a result of the analysis, the two evaluation results for Busan Metropolitan City differed slightly in the spatial distribution of areas vulnerable to heat waves. In order to properly evaluate disaster vulnerable areas due to climate change, the process and results of climate change disaster vulnerability analysis and risk assessment must be reviewed, and consider each methodology and countermeasures must be prepared.