Development of Traffic Accident frequency Prediction Model by Administrative zone - A Case of Seoul (소규모 지역단위 교통사고예측모형 개발 - 서울시 행정동을 대상으로)
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- KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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- v.35 no.6
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- pp.1297-1308
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- 2015
In Korea, the local traffic safety master plan has been established and implemented according to the Traffic Safety Act. Each local government is required to establish a customized traffic safety policy and share roles for improvement of traffic safety and this means that local governments lead and promote effective local traffic safety policies fit for local circumstances in substance. For implementing efficient traffic safety policies, which accord with many-sided characteristics of local governments, the prediction of community-based traffic accidents, which considers local characteristics and the analysis of accident influence factors must be preceded, but there is a shortage of research on this. Most of existing studies on the community-based traffic accident prediction used social and economic variables related to accident exposure environments in countries or cities due to the limit of collected data. For this reason, there was a limit in applying the developed models to the actual reduction of traffic accidents. Thus, this study developed a local traffic accident prediction model, based on smaller regional units, administrative districts, which were not omitted in existing studies and suggested a method to reflect traffic safety facility and policy variables that traffic safety policy makers can control, in addition to social and economic variables related to accident exposure environments, in the model and apply them to the development of local traffic safety policies. The model development result showed that in terms of accident exposure environments, road extension, gross floor area of buildings, the ratio of bus lane installation and the number of crossroads and crosswalks had a positive relation with accidents and the ratio of crosswalk sign installation, the number of speed bumps and the results of clampdown by police force had a negative relation with accidents.
Nowerdays, the increase of traffic accidents and old age population make the Femoral Neck Fracture(FNF) patients increase. By the improvement of education and standard of living the patients demand better medical service than before. This study is designed to give practical help for the FNF patients by observing their hospital life and establish practical nursing strategies for the FNF patients. For these purposes the Ethnographic Participant Observation was adopted. By this study is focused on the hospital life patient's view. For this end, the field study adopted orthopedic ward in the C University Hospital with 400 beds in Seoul. The object patients of the study were twelve patients. The patients experienced five stages : Embarrassment, Conflict, Stability, Independent, and Extension Stage. The findings and prepared nursing strategies are stated as follows. First, in the Embarrassment Stage they suffered embarrassment, anxiety, pain, they could not do ordinary things. The patients who accidental fractures had anxiety from unfamiliar tests and from hospitalization itself. They lamented that they could not ordinary things, and do nothing but obeying the hospital, and endure the pain. They recognized the changed environment and resigned themselves to life in the ward. In this stage, full openness by the nurses is needed. Second, the attribute of the Conflict Stage were conflict, fear, curiosity, belief, reflection. When they sign the consentment form, they experience conflicts about the possibility of complication, fear of recovery from anesthesia, curiosity about the operation procedure, post - operation state, reflection on their past life, and promise to care for their family members after discharge and keep their religious life faithfully. And they accepted the operation depending on God, believing in modern medicine, and the surgeon. Asking for their changed informations, they expected positive results from the operation. In this stage, an empathic attitude by the nurses is needed. Third, the attribute of the Stability Stage were relief, gratitude, difficulty with excretion, and pain. When they awoke from anesthesia, they felt relief because of a the end of the operation, but they experienced extreme pain, difficulty of excretion in bed. They accepted the changed environment and expected recovery. In this stage, support by the nurses is needed. Fourth, the attributes of the Independence Stage were freedom, exercise, nurturing, anxiety, and discomfort. When they ambulated and exercised, they experienced freedom. They showed exhibited weakness of the digestive organs and discomfort hospital's space, structure, and facilities, the delay of medical certificate issue the lack of prompt response by the medical agents. They ate nurturious food and felt anxiety on the end of hospital life and returning to their ordinary life. They showed the independence of overcoming their environment by increasing exercise and expected their discharges. In this stage, respect by the nurses is needed for the patients to, overcome their environment and prepare for their independence. Fifth, the attributes of the Extension Stage were pessimism, isolation, dissatisfaction, and pain. Accompanied injury and old age made their ward life extend to over seven weeks. They exhibited weariness, melancholy, skeptisis, general pessimistic feeling, and desperation caused by their isolated life. They experienced the digestive discomfort caused by the prolonged medication and psycological pain caused by long-time hospitalization. As a, result, their dissatisfaction on the human, physical, and systematic environments had been increased. They acquired critical power and sought for something to do spending their time. They expected vaguely about the returning of their ordinary life. In this stage, counseling is needed by the nurse to overcome positively their psychological, social, and physical problems. The process of the FNF patient's ward life starts from the dependent state, when they are hospitalized, and gradually progresses to self-fulfillment in order to keep independent life. As a result, the FNF patients showed "Response in Challenge" or "Adaptation in Conflict" through their experiences of social, physical, and psychological difficulties.
This study was attempt to encourage for developing on rehabilitation delivery system and programs as a substitute service instead of hospitalization for accident patients at work, such as hospital based home health care nursing service. It needs vary substitutes service of hospitalization to curtail the length of stay for inpatients who were hospitalized with workers compensation insurance. It focused on developing an estimation of early discharge day of accident inpatients based on a detail statement of treatment for 115 inpatients who were hospitalized at General Hospital in 1997. This study has four specific purpose as follows. First, to find out the status of health service utilization. Second, to estimate the early discharge days and income increasing effect based on the early discharge for those patients. Third, to identify the factors to affect total medical expenditure and the length of stay for those inpatients. Forth, to figure out the need of utilizing home health care nursing service for accident patients. In order to analyze of the length of stay and medical expenditure for inpatients who were hospitalized due to the accident, the authors conducted with micro-analysis and macroanalysis from medical records and medical expenditure records. Micro-analysis was done by nominal group discussion of 4 expertise with the critical criteria. such as a decrease in the amount of treatment after surgery, treatments, tests, drugs and changes in the tests consistency, drug methods, vital signs, start of ROM exercise, doctor's order, patient's outside visiting ability, stable conditions. In addition to identify affected variables for medical expenditure. the length of stay and income effect due to early discharge day, the data was analyzed with multiple regression analysis and linear regression analysis model by SPSS-PC for windows and Excell program. Results of this study as follows. First, the mean length of stay was 37.1 days, whereas the mean length of stay due to early discharge was 28.2 days at the hospital. The estimation of early discharge days were shown that depends on the length of stay. The longer length of stay, the longer length of early discharge days, such as under 7 days length of stay patients was to estimated the mean length of stay was 4.9 days and early discharge days was 4.6. whereas the mean length of stay was 122.6 days and early discharge days was 92.0 respectively. The mean medical expenditure per day were found to be 133.409 Won. whereas the mean medical expenditure per day was shown negative linear trends according to the length of stay at the hospital. The estimation results of the income effect due to 11 early discharge days per bed was around 2,150,000 won. However, it means not the real benefits from early discharge, but the income increasing amount without considering medical prime cost in general hospital. Therefore, it needs further analysis on the cost containments and benefits under the considering as well turn over rates per bed as the medical prime costs. The length of stay was most significant and the sign was positive to the total medical expenditure, as expected. Surgery and patient's residential area also an important variable in explaining medical expenditure. The level of complications was most significant variable in explaining the length of stay. The level of the needs on horne health care nursing service which can be used for early discharge accident patients were shown very high. The needs distribution varied from 65.5% of patients and 88.9% of caregivers, to 96.4% of doctors, and 99.1% of nurses. In addition horne health nurse responded that they can be managed the accident inpatients from early discharge. From these research findings. the following suggestions has been drawn it needs to develop strategies on rehabilitation delivery system in order to focused on consumer's side which is planned for 21 century health policy in Korea. Vary intermediate facilities and horne health care would have been developed in the community based for comprehensive rehabilitation services as a substitutes of hospitalization for shortening the length of stay of hospitalizations. In hospital based horne health care nursing service, it's available immediately to utilize for the patients who wanted rehabilitation services as a substitutes of hospitalization under the cooperations with workers compensation insurance company.
This study was done to investigate how importantly midwives thought of Lamaze Method of Childbirth, how satisfactorily they performed their Lamaze Method of Childbirth and what inhibited their activities from being performed if not done satisfactorily. The subjects of this study were 76midwives at midwifery in Pusan, Deagu, Kyungnam and Kyungbok. Data were collected by using questionaire from Sep. 1 to Sep.30, 1991. The measurement tools was maded by the researcher based on Kim's scale for prenatal nursing activities. The statistical analysis was done with based statistical values likes frequencies, means, standard deviations and advanced methods such as Pearson's correlation coefficient, 1-test, F-test, F-test by using SPSS package program. The results of this study can be summarized as follows ; 1. The results of Investigating perception according to importance degree and performance degree of Lamaze Method of Childbring showed that midwives were slightly below both perception according to importance(2.17) and performance(2.16) of Lamaze Method of Childbirth 2. Inhibiting factors of Lamaze Method of Childbirth were abscence of husband(3.08), lack of teaching room(2.71), and lack of books or literature of Lamaze Method (2.58). 3. There appears to be a positive relation between perception according to importance degree and performance degree of Lamaze Method of Childbirth (r=0.69, P<0.01). There appears to be a negative relation between perception according to importance degree and inhibit factors of performance (r=-0.38, P<0.01). There appears to be a negative relation between performance and inhibit factors of performance (r=-0.22. P<0.01). 4. The item of highest perception defree in prenatal education is 1st, Consultation about sexual life (2.53), End, illustration of the importance of a bath and perinal cleanliness and Avoidance of excessive respiration method and also its comfortable application during uterine contractility(2.45). The item of lowest perception degree is about pregnant symptom sign and predicted date of birth (E.D.C.). On the other hand, The item of highest performance degree is education about nurtrition during pregnacy. 2nd, Illustration of the Importance of a bath and perineal cleanness(2.45). The lowest one is leaching the pregnant woman and her family about the role of husband and her family and also teaching the couple to learn exercise and respiration method (1.84). Though importance perception degree and performance degree is low. Midwives who wert subject in this research shoves that they perform general items concerning prenatal education well. 5. In the relationship between perception according to importance degree of Lamaze Method of Childbirth and the general characteristics of subjects, the differences in mean number of visiting pregnacies for 1 month. 6. In the relationship between performance degree of Lamaze Method of Childbirth and the general characteristics of subjects, the differences in age, marriage, and mean number of visiting pregnancies for 1 month. With the above information we see the importance of midwife prenatal care education and high correlation between performance degree and perception degree. When Lamaze prenatal education is well performed the number of pregnant woman who have follow-up, check-ups increase. Therefore in this research we can validity that there is a relation between Lamaze prenatal education and patient follow-up. This research showes in a situation where if one does not maximally perform a prenatal education there is a possibility that the popular use of midwife activities may encounter obstacles so the education to save new knowledge and training for prenatal education is needed as a function of Lamaze prenatal education, when a special Lamaze education is well performed for the pregnant woman, who follows-up at amidwife clinic. With the above conclusion we can suggest : 1. Continued research which minimized obstacles to Lamaze prenatal education is needed. 2. The official method of midwives is necessary.
The purposes of this study are to analyze and forecast the domestic demand for papers by regression models with time-series data (1965-81). For the period of 1965-81, the real GNP of Korea grew at annual average increase rate of 8.8 percent. On the other hand, the domestic demand of papers grew at annual average increase rate of 17.9 percent in this period. Especially, the annual average increase rate for board-papers accounted to 25.8 percent. To analyze domestic demand for papers, GNP, per capita GNP, price findex of papers, production activity index of the major papers consuming industries and price index of substitutive goods were selected as independent variables. The expected values of domestic demand for papers were computed by forecasting equations as follows. T-values are in parentheses.
This study empirically examines the impact of SSM market entry on changes in market shares among retailing types. The data is monthly time-series data spanning over the period from January 2000 to December 2010, and the effect of SSM market entry on market shares of retailing types is analyzed by utilizing several key factors such as the number of new SSM monthly entrants, total number of SSMs, the proportion of new SSM entrant that is smaller than