• 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시뮬레이션학회 1992년도 제2회 정기총회 및 추계학술 발표회 발표논문 초록
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• pp.1-1
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• 1992

This paper presents a user-oriented port expansion simulation model that determines the future economic port capacity to meet the projected demand. The model consists of two parts; a physical impact simulation, and an economic impact simulation. The first part of the model simulates the effects caused by the port capacity expansion. The second part evaluates the port economics due to changes in the port capacity. The model was validated by applying it to the actual port expansion followed at the Port of Mobile, Alabama. A case study is then presented to demonstrate the capacity of the model with a coal handling port, the McDuffie Terminals at the Port of Mobile.

• 한국항만경제학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항만경제학회 2006년도 국제학술대회
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• pp.1-12
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• 2006

As national economies globalize, demand for intercontinental container shipping services is growing rapidly, providing a potential economic boon for the countries and communities that provide port services. On the promise of profits, many governments are investing heavily in port infrastructure, leading to a possible glut in port capacity, driving down prices for port services and eliminating profits as ports compete for business. Further, existing ports are making strategic investments to protect their market share, increasing the chance new ports will be overcapitalized and unprofitable. Governments and port researchers need a tool for understanding how local competition in their region will affect demand for port services at their location, and thus better assess the profitability of a prospective port. We propose to develop such a tool by extending our existing simulation model of global container traffic to incorporate demand-side shipper preferences and supply-side strategic responses by incumbent ports to changes in the global port network, including building new ports, scaling up existing ports, and unexpected port closures. We will estimate shipper preferences over routes, port attributes and port services based on US and international shipping data, and redesign the simulation model to maximize the shipper's revealed preference functions rather than simply minimize costs. As demand shifts, competing ports will adjust their pricing (short term) and infrastructure (long term) to remain competitive or defend market share, a reaction we will capture with a game theoretic model of local monopoly that will predict changes in port characteristics. The model's hypotheses will be tested in a controlled laboratory experiment tailored to local port competition in Asia, which will also serve to demonstrate the subtle game theoretic concepts of imperfect competition to a policy and industry audience. We will apply the simulation model to analyze changes in global container traffic in three scenarios: addition of a new large port in the US, extended closure of an existing large port in the US, and cooperative and competitive port infrastructure development among Korean partner countries in Asia.

• 한국항만경제학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항만경제학회 2006년도 국제학술대회
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• pp.13-24
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• 2006

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.53-66
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• 1996

Container handling facilities in Korean ports have increased rapidly according to Korean industrialization and the worldwide containerization. Over 98% of total containers handles in Korean ports are handled in Puan ports. This paper presents the estimation method of annual container handling capacity of container terminals by the computer simulation models. Simulation models are developed utilizing SIMAN IV simulation package. Annual handling capacity of real container terminals such as BCTOC and PECT was estimated by the proposed simulation models. Also, Annual handling capaicty of planned or expected terminals in Puan port was estimated. The comparisons between container forecast demand and estimated handling capacity of Pusan port from 1996 through 2001 were made. It showed that Pusan port will have over two million TEU handling capacity shortage during that period and will face enormous port congestion. Lastly, mid term and long-term capacity expansion plansof container terminals in korean ports were discussed.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

본 연구는 System Dynamics를 이용하여 선사 컨테이너 인벤토리의 수요를 장비 Type/size별 예측, Port별 예측, Weekly 예측을 통해 보다 정교한 예측모델을 구축하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 하였다. 예측은 중국의 상하이항과 얀티안항을 대상으로 하였다. 컨테이너 인벤토리는 수요가 많고 유효한 데이터를 산출할 수 있는 Dry 컨테이너 20', 40', High cube 40'으로 한정하였다. 시뮬레이션 기간은 2011년-2017년이며, 선사에서 실제 예측하는 단위인 Weekly 데이터를 활용하였다. 모델의 정확도 검증을 위해 절대비율 평균오차(MAPE)를 적용한 결과 상하이 Dry 40' 수요, 상하이 Dry High cube 40' 수요, 상하이 Dry 20' 공급, 상하이 Dry 40' 공급, 상하이 Dry High cube 40' 공급 예측 모델은 $$0%{\leq_-}MAPE{\leq_-}10%$$에 속하는 매우 정확한 예측 모델로 검증되었다. 그 외의 상하이 수요 공급 예측 모델은 $$10%{\leq_-}MAPE{\leq_-}20%$$에 속해 비교적 정확한 예측 모델로 검증되었다. 얀티안 Dry High cube 40' 수요, Dry 20' 공급 예측 모델은 $$0%{\leq_-}MAPE{\leq_-}10%$$에 속해 매우 정확한 예측 모델이며, 그 외의 얀티안 수요 공급 예측 모델은 $$10%{\leq_-}MAPE{\leq_-}20%$$에 속해 비교적 정확한 예측 모델로 검증되었다. 본 연구의 예측 모델은 실제 선사에서 관리중인 데이터와 비교해도 높은 정확도를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 제시된 모델은 지역 수요예측 담당자 및 본부의 인벤토리 컨트롤 담당자가 참고자료로 유용하게 사용 가능하다.

• 수산해양교육연구
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.441-456
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• 2007

The purpose of this study was to obtain an objective conclusion of safety assessment and to suggest proper countermeasures for the fishing vessels' entering or leaving the port of Gamcheon, in where the pier No. 4 for the fishing vessels will be newly opened soon. 20 times of the manoeuvring simulation were performed respectively onto entering and leaving the port of Gamcheon with the various conditions in weather and current, and then each of result was carefully analyzed. In spite of some increasing demand of entering the port in future, the safety will not be largely worse if the suggestion will be taken.

• 한국항만학회지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.313-322
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• 1998

The distributions of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and suspended solid (SS) in Ulsan Bay were simulated and reproduced by a numerical ecosystem model for the practical application to the management of marine water quality and the prediction of water quality change due to coastal developments or the constructions of breakwater and marine facilities. Comparing the computed with the observed data of COD and SS in Ulsan bay the results of simulation were found to be good enough to satisfy the practical applications.

• 한국항만학회지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.323-332
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• 1999

The bus should supply an equal service to the whole community as feeder trip. However the existing bus route can not supply an effective feeder service in spite of the changes in the latent demand by the variety of regional structural change. This study aimed to establish the concept which frames the bus operation and management to cope with the latent demand to the bus. This study tackled this evidence by analyzing the transportation problems in terms of the urban growth emphasizing the following issues ; First, the strategy to improve the bus operation Second the land use control appropriate for the public transportation network Third economical range to justify the bus operation Second, the land use control appropriate for the public transportation network Third, economical range to justify the bus operation Fourth, the allowance for the private transportation mode On the latter part, the difference on the bus operation was compared to determine the range within which the bus operation could be justified. This study would provide some implications to improve the management for bus operation and fundamental information to develop the bus operation system.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2004년도 Asia Navigation Conference
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• pp.113-120
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• 2004

Considering the present and expected demand for human resources by the maritime community, its quantity and quality depend on the number of the ships and the technology applied to them. Scientific and economic developments in this community bring the intensive use of modem technology for many of ships operation. Generally it effects to reduce the quantity of manpower, while it increases the requirement of qualifications of human resources to utilize such advanced technology. Considering above, the maritime education, training and research activities should be revised and updated according to the demand of the community. Because of a difference between the transition of the demand for the human resources and development of the maritime education, training and research activities, there are two most common questions as “What to teach” and “How to teach”. The first question has been asked for many years. The contents of maritime education and training are always related to the existing maritime knowledge and technology and should be updated with consideration of changes of the demand namely “Globalisation of maritime community”. It brings globalisation of the maritime education, training and research activities. The second question is still keeping us busy to look for the best way. Presently traditional methods are used together with new system, while the use of sophisticated simulation, communication and information systems etc. and it is changing our understanding on teaching. This paper introduces the new role of Maritime Institutions from the viewpoints of the maritime education. training and research activities. The role of guide for seafarers and maritime companies is always essential and the concepts such as “Refreshment Training”, “On the Job Training”, “Lifelong” or “Continuous Training” bring new understanding to the training period, trainee's age and position. As a result, the maritime institutions should be ready for their new role, which is, in brief, guiding the maritime society, recommending and providing new learning environments, organising research and developments, performing the education, training and assessment, improving existing methods and developing new methods of the education, training and assessment.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.345-351
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• 2016

This study presents a system dynamics methodology to evaluate quantitatively the effect of the Korean government's development policy, such as tax reductions, on the industrial economy. System dynamics is often perceived as an optimized means to identify the dynamic inter-relationships among various factors of development policies, and in particular the industrial characteristics and uncertainties of the coastal shipping industry. The results of simulations used in this study shows that the impact of development policies such as tax reductions would increase shipping demand for about 4 years, and that tax incentives could raise the demand volume for cabotage cargo from 5.26 to 11.11%, through the available freight-down by 90~95% points. The system dynamics approach used in this paper represents an initial attempt to use this methodology in studies of the coastal shipping industry. On the basis of our simulations, the industrial effects of other development policies, such as ship financing support, investment of social overhead, or crew supply, could also be analyzed effectively. Additionally, it should be possible to extend these results by developing a comprehensive model encompassing these various analyses.