• Title/Summary/Keyword: population hollowing out

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Vulnerability Assessment of Idleness in Rural Areas from Multiple Perspectives (인구, 주택, 농지 측면에서의 농촌지역 유휴화 취약성 평가)

  • Lee, Jimin;Choi, Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.2
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2022
  • Idleness in rural areas is a very important issue with regard to national land space management. Previous studies have been conducted separately in terms of population housing and farmland. So, an integrated analysis considering population housing and farmland is required for rural spatial management. In this study, vulnerability indices were developed and spatial distribution of the vulnerable areas was analyzed by evaluating regional vulnerability on population, housing, and farmland. In addition, plans for rural space management plan were proposed considering the population hollowing out and the idle farmland. The results of this study would be helpful in preparing policies that take into account the vulnerability of idleness in rural areas.

A Study on Policy Alternatives to the Development of Urban Regeneration Project Using AHP Analysis (AHP분석을 이용한 도시재생사업의 발전에 대한 정책적 대안에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Sam-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.25 no.6_3
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    • pp.1303-1313
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    • 2022
  • Modern cities need to revitalize the downtown area, which is declining due to population decline, economic recession, and deterioration of the residential environment, economically, socially, and physically by introducing and creating new functions. In addition, the hollowing out of the existing city center is getting worse due to the development of the outskirts of the city. Therefore, the discussion for the development of urban regeneration is the core task of modern cities. This study analyzed based on a basic understanding of urban regeneration projects, and through this, the problems of domestic urban regeneration projects were derived. In addition, the problem factors and major improvement plans of the urban regeneration project were analyzed from the expert's point of view using the AHP analysis technique. Based on this, the purpose is to present policy alternatives for the future development of urban regeneration projects. The problems derived to present the policy alternatives and improvement directions of the urban regeneration project were classified into problems related to goal achievement, problems related to the business itself, and problems related to project results. It was subdivided into sub-categories. This study analyzed the problem factors and major improvements from the expert's point of view by using the AHP analysis technique for the problems of the urban regeneration project. Based on the AHP analysis results and experts' opinions, five policy alternatives for the development of urban regeneration projects were presented.

Analysis on the Characteristics of Urban Decline Using GIS and Spatial Statistical Method : The Case of Gwangju Metropolitan City (GIS와 공간통계기법을 활용한 도시쇠퇴 특성 분석 - 광주광역시를 중심으로 -)

  • Jang, Mun-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.424-438
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    • 2016
  • In an effort to prevent urban decline and hollowing-out phenomenon and to vitalize stagnant local economy, a new urban regeneration paradigm is on the rise. This study aims to analyze urban decline characteristics using the spatial statistical method and GIS on the basis of decline standards in the Urban Regeneration Special Act, and spatial autocorrelation technique. The Gwangju Metropolitan City was set as a research target, and the decline standards in the Urban Regeneration Special Act - population reduction, business declines, and outworn buildings - were applied as the indicator to secure the objectivity. In particular, this study has a distinctive feature from the other existing ones, as applying GIS and the spatial statistical technique, in a sense to make urban decline characteristics analysis by the spatial autocorrelation technique. The overall analysis procedure was carried out by applying the standards of designating urban regeneration regions, and following the spatial exploratory procedure step by step. Therefore, the spatial statistical method procedure and the urban decline characteristics analysis data being presented in this study, as the results, are expected to contribute to the urban decline diagnosis at the level of metropolitan city, as well as to provide useful information for spatial decision making in accordance with urban regeneration.

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Distribution Patterns and Habitable Floor Area by House Types in Traditional Urban Area of Cheong ju (청주 구도심내 주택유형별 분포 및 규모특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hae-Ri;Kim, Tai-Yong
    • Proceeding of Spring/Autumn Annual Conference of KHA
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.125-130
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    • 2008
  • The new apartments has been rapidly built through the outskirts of Cheong-ju city since the latter half of 1980's. So, the population decreased in Seong-an dong and Jung-ang dong which are located in traditional urban area of Cheong-ju. Also, residential areas became obsolete and residential buildings happened to be vacant and empty. For urban rehabilitation, the city authorities will construct the high-rise complex housings with stores in the traditional urban area. We have doubts about whether the rapid change of new housing construction is right or not. Therefore, It is necessary to give a correct diagnosis of the present state from urban atrophy, keeping this area sustainable with traditionality and locality. This study is to examine and analysis in detail distribution patterns and habitable floor area by house types in Seong-an dong and Jung-ang dong which are located in traditional urban area of Cheong-ju. The result are as follows; the residential buildings as the 2,680 houses(including detached and apartment houses) and the 804 shop houses are distributed with 3,484(67%) of the whole 5,183 buildings and form 28percent of the whole floor areas. A distribution and area ratio of houses to shop houses is irrespectively about 76 : 24percent. The average floor area is represented with $66m^2$/household and $28.5m^2$/person. It shows that a hollowing out of urban area has caused the surplus of residential buildings and floor areas.

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A Study on the Recent Discussion and Policy Trends of Japan for the Development of Marginal Village Policy (한계마을정책 개발을 위한 최근 일본의 한계집락 관련 논의 및 정책 동향 연구)

  • Cho, Young-Jae;Sakashita, Akihiko;Shin, Dong-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2018
  • This study is a basic research for the development of 'Marginal Village Policy' in response to the hollowing-out of rural areas. For this purpose, the viewpoint of "Regeneration" & "Reconstruction" of the "Marginal Village Theory" and the recent "Rural Planning Theory of Evacuation" in Japan were reviewed. The background and trends of Marginal Village policy in Japan were also investigated. And based on this, the implications and future tasks for Korea were summarized as follows; (1)It is necessary to be interested in the disappearance of villages and marginal villages and to form positive discussions and social consensus. (2)Continuous field investigation and management of changes in population and village functions at regional and village level are required. (3)In addition to increasing the importance of depopulation problems, it is necessary to establish 'marginal villages' as a public policy target. (4)It is necessary to review and consider the viewpoint of reconstruction along with regeneration. (5)It is necessary to pay attention that the software project is expanded, and the regeneration & reconstruction policies of the rural villages are aimed at revitalizing the rural community. (6)It is necessary to consider the possibility of applying 'spacial construction' along with the expansion of the academic debate on the 'rural planning theory of evacuation'. On the basis of this, in this study, rural villages were classified into 'continuous villages', 'semi-marginal villages' and 'marginal villages' according to the degree of marginalization, and the basic framework of 'Marginal Village Policy' was proposed, which is to encourage the differentiated policies of 'continuous villages' by 'rural village policy', 'semi-marginal villages' and 'marginal villages' by 'marginal village policy'.

Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

A Study on the Prediction Model of the Elderly Depression

  • SEO, Beom-Seok;SUH, Eung-Kyo;KIM, Tae-Hyeong
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.11 no.7
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In modern society, many urban problems are occurring, such as aging, hollowing out old city centers and polarization within cities. In this study, we intend to apply big data and machine learning methodologies to predict depression symptoms in the elderly population early on, thus contributing to solving the problem of elderly depression. Research design, data and methodology: Machine learning techniques used random forest and analyzed the correlation between CES-D10 and other variables, which are widely used worldwide, to estimate important variables. Dependent variables were set up as two variables that distinguish normal/depression from moderate/severe depression, and a total of 106 independent variables were included, including subjective health conditions, cognitive abilities, and daily life quality surveys, as well as the objective characteristics of the elderly as well as the subjective health, health, employment, household background, income, consumption, assets, subjective expectations, and quality of life surveys. Results: Studies have shown that satisfaction with residential areas and quality of life and cognitive ability scores have important effects in classifying elderly depression, satisfaction with living quality and economic conditions, and number of outpatient care in living areas and clinics have been important variables. In addition, the results of a random forest performance evaluation, the accuracy of classification model that classify whether elderly depression or not was 86.3%, the sensitivity 79.5%, and the specificity 93.3%. And the accuracy of classification model the degree of elderly depression was 86.1%, sensitivity 93.9% and specificity 74.7%. Conclusions: In this study, the important variables of the estimated predictive model were identified using the random forest technique and the study was conducted with a focus on the predictive performance itself. Although there are limitations in research, such as the lack of clear criteria for the classification of depression levels and the failure to reflect variables other than KLoSA data, it is expected that if additional variables are secured in the future and high-performance predictive models are estimated and utilized through various machine learning techniques, it will be able to consider ways to improve the quality of life of senior citizens through early detection of depression and thus help them make public policy decisions.