• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.2873-2881
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• 2018

It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.172-181
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• 2020

This study examines the fact-check coverage provided by the SNU fact-check center site(factcheck.snu.ac.kr). A total of 50 articles that were cross-checked by multiple news media organizations were analyzed. The study's variables were topics, types, characteristics, consistency of the news media organizations' judgement, and fact-check sources. This study found that fact-checking coverage was generally focused on presidential or general election candidates or politicians, as well as political topics. The types of fact-checking coverage primarily included factual information, as well as some opinions or interpretations. Fact-check coverage was mainly focused on the facts of the statements themselves, causal relationships, or the timing or target of the comparison criteria. On average, the fact-checking coverage most frequently assigned the judgment 'mostly false, and primarily used interviews of individuals or data from organizations involved in the issue, government data, and experts' statements as the bases for its fact-checking judgements.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.397-414
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• 2016

There will be coming soon a sequence of the so-called election season in Korea. That is the 20th session of general elections and the 19th presidential election which are taking place one after another. When we talk about presidential candidate, we may realize that the choice were relied upon candidate's facial appearance and speech, voice, dress, and so on. One poll showed that capacity and policy were ranked high and figure and image were ranked next by asking "what is the most important factor when you vote for the president?" This study looked into the candidate's face of a newly elected public office through the election voting. I studied how the factors of sex and beauty may affect on the election results. I analyse survey of candidate's photo on the election leaflets. Analyzed result said that candidate's competency and trust have strong relations in the voting choice rather than beauty even if it is statistically significant. I also find that both beauty and competency are positively interrelated.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• 제26권12호
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• pp.1800-1808
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• 2022

During the election period, many polling agencies survey and distribute the approval ratings for each candidate. In the past, public opinion was expressed through the Internet, mobile SNS, or community, although in the past, people had no choice but to survey the approval rating by relying on opinion polls. Therefore, if the public opinion expressed on the Internet is understood through natural language analysis, it is possible to determine the candidate's approval rate as accurately as the result of the opinion poll. Therefore, this paper proposes a method of inferring the approval rate of candidates during the election period by synthesizing the political comments of users through internet community posting data. In order to analyze the approval rate in the post, I would like to suggest a method for generating the model that has the highest correlation with the actual opinion poll by using the KoBert, KcBert, and KoELECTRA models.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.37-83
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• 2020

This paper presents the results of 'The Survey on the 21^st National Assembly members' conducted by the Korean Association of Party Studies (KAPS) and the Hankyoreh following the 21^st Korean National Assembly Election. Since the 16^th Korean National Assembly Election, the KAPS has surveyed the candidates and/or the elected regarding their views on major policy issues and perceived self-ideology, which has contributed to our understanding of overtime changes in ideology of political parties in South Korea and their members. This year's survey includes 21 questions on the four major policy issue areas including foreign policy, economy, social issues and cultural issues as well as their perceived ideology. Among the 300 elected, 197 participated in the survey. The results suggest that the Justice Party is most liberal, the United Future Party is most conservative, and the Democratic Party is in the middle on average in terms of issue preference and perceived ideology. Compared to the preceding National Assembly, the partisan gap continues to appear salient in foreign policy, economy, and the cultural issues. In contrast, the gap narrows down in the social issues because the members of the Democratic Party embrace more conservative preference. It is noteworthy to examine whether this shift leads to cooperative decision making on social policies between liberal and conservative parties in the upcoming National Assembly. The composite policy preference index of individual assembly members, on the other hand, shows significant difference among members of different parties. Political parties in South Korea has evolved from a group of people from the same region into a group of people with distinctive policy preferences.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.141-156
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• 2013

Social media is a representative form of the Web 2.0 that shapes the change of a user's information behavior by allowing users to produce their own contents without any expert skills. In particular, as a new communication medium, it has a profound impact on the social change by enabling users to communicate with the masses and acquaintances their opinions and thoughts. Social media data plays a significant role in an emerging Big Data arena. A variety of research areas such as social network analysis, opinion mining, and so on, therefore, have paid attention to discover meaningful information from vast amounts of data buried in social media. Social media has recently become main foci to the field of Information Retrieval and Text Mining because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real-time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading. But most of the previous studies have adopted broad-brush and limited approaches. These approaches have made it difficult to find and analyze new information. To overcome these limitations, we developed a real-time Twitter trend mining system to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers the functions of term co-occurrence retrieval, visualization of Twitter users by query, similarity calculation between two users, topic modeling to keep track of changes of topical trend, and mention-based user network analysis. In addition, we conducted a case study on the 2012 Korean presidential election. We collected 1,737,969 tweets which contain candidates' name and election on Twitter in Korea (http://www.twitter.com/) for one month in 2012 (October 1 to October 31). The case study shows that the system provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively. The system also retrieves the list of terms co-occurred by given query terms. We compare the results of term co-occurrence retrieval by giving influential candidates' name, 'Geun Hae Park', 'Jae In Moon', and 'Chul Su Ahn' as query terms. General terms which are related to presidential election such as 'Presidential Election', 'Proclamation in Support', Public opinion poll' appear frequently. Also the results show specific terms that differentiate each candidate's feature such as 'Park Jung Hee' and 'Yuk Young Su' from the query 'Guen Hae Park', 'a single candidacy agreement' and 'Time of voting extension' from the query 'Jae In Moon' and 'a single candidacy agreement' and 'down contract' from the query 'Chul Su Ahn'. Our system not only extracts 10 topics along with related terms but also shows topics' dynamic changes over time by employing the multinomial Latent Dirichlet Allocation technique. Each topic can show one of two types of patterns-Rising tendency and Falling tendencydepending on the change of the probability distribution. To determine the relationship between topic trends in Twitter and social issues in the real world, we compare topic trends with related news articles. We are able to identify that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. The user network in Twitter is different from those of other social media because of distinctive characteristics of making relationships in Twitter. Twitter users can make their relationships by exchanging mentions. We visualize and analyze mention based networks of 136,754 users. We put three candidates' name as query terms-Geun Hae Park', 'Jae In Moon', and 'Chul Su Ahn'. The results show that Twitter users mention all candidates' name regardless of their political tendencies. This case study discloses that Twitter could be an effective tool to detect and predict dynamic changes of social issues, and mention-based user networks could show different aspects of user behavior as a unique network that is uniquely found in Twitter.

• Korean Security Journal
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• 제50호
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• pp.91-115
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• 2017

Recently the characteristics of those who committed serious terrorist crimes are not directly related to the direct command system of a specific terrorist organization (ex. IS) but are influenced by the political propaganda of terrorist organizations online, Terrorist crime under the loose form of the terrorist organization. Therefore, this study suggests ways to improve countermeasures against terrorism in metropolitan subways. Although it is important for the prevention of terrorism in the subway, it is important for the police officers of the subway police and the special police officers of the railway to have a physical limit to take charge of them, and after confirming that improvement measures are necessary, And pointed out the possibility of establishing independent security departments where judicial and administrative control is not feasible to grant police rights. In addition, I pointed out how to improve the safety of subways in the metropolitan area through the recruitment of core job candidates and the identity survey during the subway operation. Furthermore, it was confirmed that a special council on terrorism, which can take into consideration the characteristics of subway terrorism, such as airports and ports, is required to be established in charge of terrorism prevention under the current Anti-Terrorism Act. Finally, it is once again emphasized that the strengthening of the powers of the counterparts to terrorism must inevitably limit the basic rights of the people, so the principle of proportionality must be observed in their activities.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• 제30권5호
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• pp.256-264
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• 2014

Enhancing the value of fine chemicals based on biomass resources is an important objective for addressing environmental and other concerns such as demand for renewable or green products, as well as from the political perspective to reduce dependence on fossil feedstock associated with the use of petroleum-based products. Based on these considerations, we studied the synthesis of estolide using waste plant-based oil materials and their application as lubricants and pour point depressants. Five estolides were prepared by varying molar ratio of palmitic acid (PA) to oleic acid (OA) using a reaction time of 48 h. The estolides were characterized by size exclusion chromatography (SEC) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). The isolated yields were in the range of 57-78 % and purity was 93-97%, showing iodine values of 18.2-37.8, total acid numbers (TANs) of 75.6-94.2 mg KOH/g and estolide numbers (ENs) of 1.2-1.8. Increasing the ratio of OA to PA in the synthesis decreased the kinematic viscosity and clouding point of the estolides. Four ball wear test of the estolides as a base oil demonstrated that the wear scar diameter (WSD) of the estolides was significantly lower (0.320-0.495 mm) than the WSD of general base oils such as 150N and Yubase (0.735 and 0.810 mm, respectively), indicating better wear resistance of the estolides. However, the lubricant property was found to be independent of the amount of OA in the estolides. These new materials are prospective candidates for application as a lubricant base oil.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.135-143
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• 2022

This paper aims to grasp what propensity users have in their ideology from the comments in the Web Portal News and the Press Website News. Through these analytical results, the political propensities of not only the Web Portal News and the Press Website News but also the voters who use these news media could be grasped. The collection of data necessary for this study has been made from the comments of 174 news stories for about 90 days before the election day. For the analysis, T-test has been used in order to compare Naver News with Daum News, the Minjoo Party of Korea with the People Power Party, and the Press Web Site News with Naver News. As a result of the analysis, the comments of Naver News took the higher percentage in the positive writings about the candidates of the conservative party. but, in contrast, those of Daum News in that percentage were higher about the ones of the progressive party. Accordingly, it can be found that Naver News is mainly used by users with the politically conservative propensity, while Daum News is mostly used by those with progressive one.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.79-115
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• 2022

This study aims to account for electoral choice in the 2020 presidential election by focusing on social identity which forms the basis for core partisan groups. Two views compete to explain the origins of polarization, policy versus party. One emphasizes policy as more influential in choosing presidential candidates. This follows the tradition of retrospective voting theory in which voters' choice rely on government performance. Incumbent president whose performance proves well are rewarded to be reelected. Policy performance is based on measures around distinctive preferences for government spending. Republican Individuals prefer individual responsibility to government support, while Democratic counterparts support government support. Another perspective put an emphasis on the role partisanship which favors in-party members and disfavors partisan out-groups. Interparty animosity plays the key role in determining electoral behavior. This study relies on the Views of the Electorate Research (VOTER) Survey which provides a panel data of several waves from 2011 to 2020. A comparative evaluation of two views highlights three findings. First, policy matters. Policy preferences of voters are the primary drives of political behavior. Electoral outcomes in 2020 turned out to be the results of policy considerations of voters. 53.7 percent of voters tilted toward individual responsibility voted for Trump, whereas 70.4 percent of those favorable views of government support than individual responsibility voted for Biden. Thus effects of policy correspond to a positive difference of 26.4 percent points. Second, partisanship effects are of similar extent in influencing electoral choice of candidates: Democrats are less likely to vote for Trump by 42.4 percent points, while Republicans are less likely to vote for Biden by 48.7 percent points. Third, animosity of Republicans toward Democrat core groups creates 26.5 percent points of favoring Trump over Biden. Democrat animosity toward Republican core groups creates a positive difference of 13.7 percent points of favoring Biden.