• 응용통계연구
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.865-875
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• 2012

In this study, we identify the variables that affect the number of crime and spatial correlation in the Seoul metropolitan area, in addition, we measure the relative risk on the incidence of crime by a Poisson regression model. We suggest a statistical methodology to make a risk map for crime based on relative risk instead of the total event of crime by region using the Geographic Information System. To demonstrate the use and advantages of this methodology, this study presents an analyses of the total crime count in 25 wards in the Seoul metropolitan area.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.1513-1521
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• 2015

Selecting relevant variables for a statistical model is very important in regression analysis. Recently, variable selection methods using a penalized likelihood have been widely studied in various regression models. The main advantage of these methods is that they select important variables and estimate the regression coefficients of the covariates, simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a simple procedure based on a penalized h-likelihood (HL) for variable selection in Poisson hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs) for correlated count data. For this we consider three penalty functions (LASSO, SCAD and HL), and derive the corresponding variable-selection procedures. The proposed method is illustrated using a practical example.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.1353-1360
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• 2008

An estimating procedure is introduced for the nonlinear mixed-effect Poisson regression, for longitudinal study, where data from different subjects are independent whereas data from same subject are correlated. The proposed procedure provides the estimates of the mean function of the response variables, where the canonical parameter is related to the input vector in a nonlinear form. The generalized cross validation function is introduced to choose optimal hyper-parameters in the procedure. Experimental results are then presented, which indicate the performance of the proposed estimating procedure.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.851-858
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• 2012

We consider a bivariate Poisson regression model to analyze discrete count data when two dependent variables are present. We estimate the regression coefficients as sociated with several safety countermeasures. We use Markov chain and Monte Carlo techniques to execute some computations. A simulation and real data analysis are performed to demonstrate model fitting performances of the proposed model.

• 콘크리트학회논문집
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.195-204
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• 2004

기존의 다축응력 상태의 콘크리트 크리프 실험으로부터 제안된 푸아송비에 대한 연구결과는 서로 큰 차이를 나타내고 있다. 측정된 변형률로부터 계산된 푸아송비는 작은 실험 오차에 의해서도 매우 민감하며, 이러한 민감성은 푸아송비의 시간에 따른 변화와 응력상태에 따른 경향을 파악하는 데 있어 큰 어려움을 초래한다. 따라서 이러한 연구결과의 불일치를 해결하고 신뢰성 있는 결과를 도출하기 위해서 새로운 분석방법이 요구된다. 이 연구는 다축응력 상태의 크리프 실험결과에 대한 새로운 분석방법으로 미세평면 모델을 적용하였다. 미세평면 상에서 체적과 편차컴플라이언스에 대한 수학적 모델로는 이중지수 법칙을 사용하였다. 체적과 편차성분의 컴플라이언스는 여섯 개의 변수로 구성되며 실험결과를 최적으로 모사하는 변수를 최적화 기법으로부터 구하였다. 여섯 변수에 대한 회귀분석결과로 부터 계산된 푸아송비는 시간에 따라 변화하였다. 또한 시간에 따라 푸아송비가 일정하다는 조건에서 네 변수를 결정하였으며 이 때의 회귀분석결과와 실험 측정값 사이의 오차는 여섯 변수가 사용된 회귀분석결과의 오차에 비해 다소 크게 나타났다. 네 변수에 대한 회귀분석결과로부터 얻은 시간에 따라 일정한 푸아송비는 큰 오차 없이 실제의 구조해석에 유용하게 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2003년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.465-472
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• 2003

Creep Poisson's ratio reported by previous experimental studies on multiaxial creep of concrete was controversial. The Poisson's ratio is very sensitive to small experimental error that is inevitably induced, and the sensitivity may cause the controversy. It is difficulty to find out the properties on multiaxial creep of concrete. Therefore, a new approach method to analyze the test results is needed to precisely understand the properties on multiaxial creep of concrete. In this study, microplane model is used as a new approach method in analyzing the multiaxial creep test data. The six data sets extracted from the literature are fitted from regression analysis. Double-power law as a model representing volumetric and deviatoric creep evolutions on microplane is used, and six parameters in volumetric and deviatoric compliances are determined on the assumption that the volumetric and deviatoric creep strains are linearly proportional to corresponding stresses. The optimum fits give very accurate description of the test data. The Poisson's ratio calculated from the optimum fits varies with time and does not depends on the stress states, namely, uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial stress states. Regression analysis is also performed on the assumption that the Poisson's ratio remains constant with titre. The constant Poisson's ratio can be use in practice without serious error.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제25권5호
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• pp.859-864
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• 2012

Poisson regression and negative binomial regression are usually used to analyze counting data; however, these models are unsuitable for fit zero-inflated data that contain unexpected zero-valued observations. In this paper, we review the zero-inflated regression in which Bernoulli process and the counting process are hierarchically mixed. It is known that zero-inflated regression can efficiently model the over-dispersion problem. Vuong statistic is employed to compare performances of the zero-inflated models with other standard models.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.67-74
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• 2018

PURPOSES : The goal of this study is the development of roundabout accident models for urban and non-urban areas. METHODS : This study performed a comparative analysis of the regional factors affecting accidents. Traffic accident data were collected for the period 2010~2014 from the TAAS data set of the Road Traffic Authority. To develop the roundabout accident models, the Poisson and negative binomial regression models were used. A total of 25 explanatory variables such as geometry, and traffic volume were used. RESULTS : The key findings are as follows: First, it was found that the null hypotheses that the number of accidents is the same should be rejected. Second, three Poisson regression accident models, which are statistically significant (${\rho}^2$ of 0.154 and 0.385) were developed. Third, it was noted that although the common variable of the three models (models I~III) is the number of entry lanes, the specific variables are entry lane width, roundabout sign, number of circulatory roadways, splitter island, number of exit lanes, exit lane width, number of approach roads, and truck apron. CONCLUSIONS : The results of this study can provide suggestive countermeasures for decreasing the number of roundabout accidents.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.291-309
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• 2023

Longitudinal count data has been widely collected in biomedical research, public health, and clinical trials. These repeated measurements over time on the same subjects need to account for an appropriate dependency. The Poisson regression model is the first choice to model the expected count of interest, however, this may not be an appropriate when data exhibit over-dispersion or under-dispersion. Recently, Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) distribution is popularly used as the distribution offers a flexibility to capture a wide range of dispersion in the data. In this article, we propose a Bayesian CMP regression model to accommodate over and under-dispersion in modeling longitudinal count data. Specifically, we develop a regression model with random intercept and slope to capture subject heterogeneity and estimate covariate effects to be different across subjects. We implement a Bayesian computation via Hamiltonian MCMC (HMCMC) algorithm for posterior sampling. We then compute Bayesian model assessment measures for model comparison. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the accuracy and effectiveness of our methodology. The usefulness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by a well-known example of epilepsy data.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2023년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.120-121
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• 2023

최근에 해운산업의 수요와 공급이 지속적으로 일치하지 않으면서 불균형 현상이 이어지고 있다. 이에 따라 해운선사들은 선박의 공급량을 조절하기 위해 블랭크 세일링을 실시하며 수요와 공급의 균형을 맞추고 있다. 블랭크 세일링은 화물 운송을 지연시키는 부정적인 연쇄효과를 발생시키기 때문에 본 연구에서는 포아송 회귀분석을 이용하여