• Title/Summary/Keyword: percentile.

Search Result 1,061, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Evaluating the Storage Capacity of a Container Terminal: A Simulation Approach (컨테이너터미널의 장치장 보관능력 평가: 시뮬레이션접근)

  • 박병인
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.59-72
    • /
    • 2005
  • There were many theoretical studies using mathematical models about a yard storage capacity in a container terminal so far, but a simulation approach is newly popularizing. The reason why the simulation studies about yard storage capacity were a few was that once the most important part in a container terminal was a quay part. However, from the economic crisis year of 1977, the yard storage part in a container terminal became a critical resource because of the shortage of SOC investment resources. Therefore, after discharging or loading even through there was a waiting in the quay part or not, it can be swiftly improved the efficiency of a container terminal if it was handled rapidly or smoothly in a container yard. So the accurate assessment of yard storage capacity in a container terminal was needed. This study planed to assess the operation capability of a container yard via a simulation model. The model included many chatacteristics of three Korean container terminals such as Gamman Hanjin, Uam, and Hutchinson Busan at the period of 1999 to 2000. The 95% percentile was chosen as a criterion for judging of the storage capability by the recommendation of KPC (1998) and JWD (1998). A simulation approach with system dynamics concept considering the multi-directional impacts within the related variables can probavly foresee the future storage capacity of a terminal not just the past.

  • PDF

Forcing a Closer Fit in the Lower Tails of a Distribution for Better Estimating Extremely Small Percentiles of Strengths

  • Guess, Frank-M.;Leon, Ramon-V.;Chen, Weiwei;Young, Timothy-M.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.129-145
    • /
    • 2004
  • We use a novel, forced censoring technique that closer fits the lower tails of strenth distributions to better estimate extremly smaller percentiles for measuring progress in continuous improvement initiatives. These percentiles are of greater interest for companies, government oversight organizations, and consumers concerned with safely and preventing accidents for many products in general, but specifically for medium density fiberboard (MDF). The international industrial standard for MDF for measuring highest quality is internal bond (IB, also called tensile strengh) and its smaller percentiles are crucial, especially the first percentile and lower ones. We induce censoring at a value just above the median to weight lower observations more. Using this approach, we have better fits in the lower tails of the distribution, where these samller percentiles are impacted most. Finally, bootstrap estimates of the small percentiles are used to demonstrate improved intervals by our forced censoring approach and the fitted model. There was evidence from the study to suggest that MDF has potentially different failure modes for early failures. Overall, our approach is parsimonious and is suitable for real time manufacturing settings. The approach works for either strengths distributions or lifetime distributions.

  • PDF

Study on Lumbar Spine Curvature and Lower Back Discomfort with Design Parameter of Automotive Seat Lumbar Support (자동차 요추지지대의 설계 변수에 따른 불편도 및 요추 변형과의 상관 관계 분석)

  • Yang, Jungtae;Lee, Joungho;Choi, Hyungyun
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
    • /
    • v.39 no.3
    • /
    • pp.192-197
    • /
    • 2013
  • In this study, it is investigated the relationship between sitting discomfort and major design variables of lumber support, such as prominence, height and width through volunteer tests. Korean $50^{th}$ percentile males and American $50^{th}$ percentile males are recruited among 36 to 45 years old peoples who have driving experiences and have no back pain during the past 12 months. Subject ratings are asked by changing design variables randomly. Body pressure and lumber position changes are also measured as object measures. And correlation among subject ratings, object measures and three design variables are analyzed using statistical analysis. As a result, it is revealed that prominence is the most dominant factor that correlates to the discomfort strongly for both-Koreans and Americans and contribution of other two variables are very low.

CAE-based DFSS Study for Road Noise Reduction (로드 노이즈 개선을 위한 전산응용해석 기반 DFSS 연구)

  • Kwon, Woo-Sung;Yoo, Bong-Jun;Kim, Byoung-Hoon;Kim, In-Dong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
    • /
    • v.21 no.7
    • /
    • pp.674-681
    • /
    • 2011
  • In the early phase of vehicle development, CAE is conducted as tool for vehicle performance assessment. To maintain acceptable road noise performance, solution for reduced vehicle sensitivity is required. Chassis interface dynamic stiffness characteristics are key component to isolating vibration and noise of road from the vehicle interior. This research provide how to set up the optimized dynamic characteristics under noise effect through DFSS study. CAE-based DOE is performed to build prediction math model, CMS process involves DOE to achieve very fast run times while giving results very comparable. Minimized 95th percentile of performance distribution is applied to minimize vehicle sensitivity and road noise levels variation during the optimization process. Finally, the results of optimization were reviewed for performance and robustness.

Update on polycystic ovary syndrome

  • Kim, Jin Ju
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
    • /
    • v.48 no.3
    • /
    • pp.194-197
    • /
    • 2021
  • Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common disorder in reproductive-age women. In 2018, an international evidence-based guideline announced recommendations spanning a wide range of issues on the assessment and management of PCOS. From the 166 recommendations, the present study reviews those that are of particular clinical relevance for daily practice and introduces other relevant studies that have been published since the global guideline. The 2018 guideline increased the antral follicle count cutoff for the diagnosis of PCOS from 12 to 20 when using a high-frequency probe. Hirsutism was defined as having a score of ≥4-6 based on a lower percentile of 85%-90% or cluster analysis, which was lower than the traditionally used 95th percentile-based cutoff. The diagnosis of PCOS in adolescents is challenging, and irregular menstruation was defined carefully according to years from menarche. The use of ultrasonography for the diagnosis of PCOS was restricted to those 8 years after menarche. As medication for non-fertility indications, combined oral contraceptives are the first-line drug. Metformin, in addition to lifestyle modifications, should be considered for adult patients with a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 for the management of weight and metabolic outcomes. An aromatase inhibitor is the recommended first-line medication for ovulation induction, a subsequent individual patient data meta-analysis also reported the same conclusion. Whether the new global guideline will be fully adopted by many specialists and change clinical practice is open to question. Further studies are needed to better understand and manage PCOS patients well.

First Korean Case of 16p11.2 Duplication Syndrome Diagnosed by Chromosomal Microarray Analysis

  • Shim, Ye Jee;Park, So Yun;Jung, Nani;Kang, Seok Jin;Kim, Heung Sik;Ha, Jung-Sook
    • Journal of Interdisciplinary Genomics
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.10-13
    • /
    • 2019
  • A 10-year and 5 month-old girl with developmental delay, intellectual disability, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, poor weight gain, and microcephaly was transferred to our pediatric clinic for genetic evaluation. Her height was within the 5-10th percentile, and her weight was under the 3rd percentile. On the social maturity scale, her developmental status was scored as 3 years 9 months for social age, and the social quotient was 35.98. A chromosomal microarray analysis was performed and the microduplication at chromosome 16p was observed: arr[GRCh37] 16p11.2 (29580020_30190029)${\times}3$. Currently, the patient is diagnosed with Grade 2 intellectual disability and is attending a computerized cognitive rehabilitation class twice weekly. In addition, nutritional support and growth follow up are also ensured in the Pediatric Gastrointestinal and Endocrinology clinic.

Hypothesis Proposal about Predictive Factors and Optimal Age for Response to Herbal Medicine Treatment for Height Gain in Children: a Retrospective Review

  • Leem, Jungtae;Kim, Jeeyeun;Suh, Kyeungsuk;Lim, Youngkwern;Lee, Junhee
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
    • /
    • v.39 no.4
    • /
    • pp.16-29
    • /
    • 2018
  • Introduction: We aimed to investigate the predictive factors and optimal age for response to herbal medicine treatment for height gain in children. Methods: This retrospective chart review included 61 children (age range, 5-16 years) treated for height gain between 2011 and 2015. A predictive model was established by multiple linear regression analysis. Dependent variables were defined by the differences in percentile before and after herbal medicine treatment. The optimal cutoff value of patient age was determined by receiver operating curve analysis. Results : The age of initiation of herbal medicine therapy (p = 0.012) and administration of Forsythiae fructus (p = 0.002) were significant variables for treatment response. The adjusted R2 value was 0.231. The mean ages of the responder and non-responder groups were significantly different (p = 0.023). The optimal cutoff value of age for predicting treatment response was 9.75 years. Treatment response was better among children below 9.75 years of age. Conclusions: Patient age and administration of Forsythiae fructus were identified as determinants of response to herbal medicine treatment. Treatment of rhinitis and initiation of height gain treatment at an early age are critical for better response. These findings will provide fundamental data for further research.

Association of body weight and urinary tract infections during infancy: a nationwide comparative matched cohort study

  • Peong Gang Park;Ji Hyun Kim;Yo Han Ahn;Hee Gyung Kang
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.111-116
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose: This article was to investigate the association between urinary tract infections (UTIs) and high weight status in infancy. Methods: We conducted a nationwide matched cohort study from January 2018 to December 2020 using data from the Korean National Health Insurance System and the Korean National Health Screening Program for Infants and Children. We analyzed the association between UTI diagnosis codes and high weight status (which was defined as being in the 90th percentile or higher of weight-for-age). Results: We found that 22.8% of infants with UTIs exhibited high weight status, compared to 20.0% of non-UTI infants (P<0.001). Per our multivariable analyses, the adjusted odds ratio for high weight status was 1.09 (95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.13). Conclusions: UTI in the first 12 months of life was associated with a weight-for-age percentile of ≥90. Our findings corroborate those of previous single-center studies and emphasize the importance of careful monitoring for this at-risk group.

Assessing the Benefits of Incorporating Rainfall Forecasts into Monthly Flow Forecast System of Tampa Bay Water, Florida (하천 유량 예측 시스템 개선을 위한 강우 예측 자료의 적용성 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Martinez, Chris;Asefa, Tirusew
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.54 no.4
    • /
    • pp.127-135
    • /
    • 2012
  • This paper introduced the flow forecast modeling system that a water management agency in west central Florida, Tampa Bay Water has been operated to forecast monthly rainfall and streamflow in the Tampa Bay region, Florida. We evaluated current 1-year monthly rainfall forecasts and flow forecasts and actual observations to investigate the benefits of incorporating rainfall forecasts into monthly flow forecast. Results for rainfall forecasts showed that the observed annual cycle of monthly rainfall was accurately reproduced by the $50^{th}$ percentile of forecasts. While observed monthly rainfall was within the $25^{th}$ and $75^{th}$ percentile of forecasts for most months, several outliers were found during the dry months especially in the dry year of 2007. The flow forecast results for the three streamflow stations (HRD, MB, and BS) indicated that while the 90 % confidence interval mostly covers the observed monthly streamflow, the $50^{th}$ percentile forecast generally overestimated observed streamflow. Especially for HRD station, observed streamflow was reproduced within $5^{th}$ and $25^{th}$ percentile of forecasts while monthly rainfall observations closely followed the $50^{th}$ percentile of rainfall forecasts. This was due to the historical variability at the station was significantly high and it resulted in a wide range of forecasts. Additionally, it was found that the forecasts for each station tend to converge after several months as the influence of the initial condition diminished. The forecast period to converge to simulation bounds was estimated by comparing the forecast results for 2006 and 2007. We found that initial conditions have influence on forecasts during the first 4-6 months, indicating that FMS forecasts should be updated at least every 4-6 months. That is, knowledge of initial condition (i.e., monthly flow observation in the last-recent month) provided no foreknowledge of the flows after 4-6 months of simulation. Based on the experimental flow forecasts using the observed rainfall data, we found that the 90 % confidence interval band for flow predictions was significantly reduced for all stations. This result evidently shows that accurate short-term rainfall forecasts could reduce the range of streamflow forecasts and improve forecast skill compared to employing the stochastic rainfall forecasts. We expect that the framework employed in this study using available observations could be used to investigate the applicability of existing hydrological and water management modeling system for use of stateof-the-art climate forecasts.

Probabilistic Exposure Assessment of Pesticide Residues in Agricultural Products in Gyeonggi-do (경기도내 유통 농산물 중 잔류농약의 확률론적 노출평가 연구)

  • Do, Young-Sook;Kim, Jung-Boem;Kang, Suk-Ho;Kim, Nan-Young;Eom, Mi-Na;Yoon, Mi-Hye
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.117-125
    • /
    • 2013
  • A probabilistic exposure assessment was performed on the monitoring data of pesticides were assessed in agricultural products in Gyeonggi-do from 2006 to 2010. Chlorothalonil, chlorpyrifos, dicofol, endosulfan, EPN, ethoprophos, fenitrothion, methidathion, phenthoate and tebupirimfos were assessed. For this assessment, we used Monte Carlo simulation software and the distribution of concentration and intake were assumed to lognormal distribution by inputting mean and standard deviation. The hazard index (HI, %ADI) of average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile based on a probabilistic method were usually lower than those by a deterministic one. For the whole population, when non-detects data were assigned 0 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile showed 0.05~0.70% and 0.11~1.94%, respectively. When nondetects data were assigned 0.005 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile were 0.41~4.42% and 0.98~13.81%. For only consumers, when non-detects data were assigned 0 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile were 1.24~10.16% and 3.72~33.81%, respectively. When non-detects data were assigned 0.005 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile were 3.43~18.26% and 9.45~54.99%, respectively. Methidathion had highest values when both of 0 and 0.005 were assigned to non-detecs data for consumers only. This study showed that agricultural products in Gyeonggi-do were safe because they had less than 100 of HI (%ADI) based on probabilistic exposure assessment.