• Title/Summary/Keyword: payment risk

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Predicting Default of Construction Companies Using Bayesian Probabilistic Approach (베이지안 확률적 접근법을 이용한 건설업체 부도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sungmoon;Hwang, Jaeyeon;Kwon, Taewhan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2016
  • Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.

Effectiveness of Medical Aid Case Management in Excessive Healthcare User by Interventions based on the Number of Accesss (의료급여 과다이용자의 중재방법별 접근횟수에 따른 사례관리 효과)

  • Song, Myeong-Kyeong;Cho, Jeong-Hyun;Kim, Soon-Ok
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.259-269
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed medical aid case management effects based on the number of access by visits, phone calls, letters, internal investigation, resource links, and requests, in medical aid case management business that is carried out to improve the quality of life of medical care beneficiaries and reduce financial cost. Secondary analysis study using data of 564 high-risk group in the medical aid case management and their healthcare utilization data. Letters had positive correlations with the scores of all case management domains. The higher visits was, the lower the score of self-health care ability was, and the higher the number of phone calls was, the higher the score for reasonable medical use was. While there was no significant difference in medical cost according to aid management by interventions, the higher visits and resource links were, the lower the subjects' total number of payment days was. There is a difference in the various areas of the quality of health -related life and medical use depending on case management by intervention method and its number. It is necessary to carry out the efficient number of access to case management by intervention method.

Indebtedness and Mental Health - Focusing on Depressive Symptoms and Suicidal Ideation - (가계부채가 정신건강에 미치는 영향 - 우울감과 자살생각을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Jung Min;Oh, Uk Chan;Gu, Sea Juang
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.69 no.2
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    • pp.171-190
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    • 2017
  • This study examined the impact of indebtedness on depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation. The data came from the 4th to 10th waves of the Korea Welfare Panel Study, collected from 2009 to 2015. Analyses were conducted using logistic regression for longitudinal data that combines the fixed effects and random effects approaches. The results show that a high level of indebtedness substantially increased the risk of depressive symptoms. The household leverage ratio-the ratio of total household debt to disposable personal income-of 400% or higher increased the odds of probable depression by 50% compared with the ratio under 100%. When the percentage of personal income that goes toward paying debt is 30% or higher, the odds of probable depression went up by 66% than when the percentage of debt payment of disposal income is under 10%. The findings suggest that debt relief agencies and their programs need to incorporate means to identify and address emotional stress related to the excessive debt. This study also contributed to enriching the literature on social determinants of health by demonstrating that indebtedness is an important socioeconomic characteristic affecting individuals' mental health.

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Evaluation on the impact of Lowest Bid Contracts on Site Operations in times of Severe Economic Downturn (건설경기 침체기의 최저가 낙찰제 건설현장의 운영 실태분석과 개선 방안 도출)

  • Koo, Bon-Sang;Jang, Hyoun-Seung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.146-153
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    • 2009
  • The year 2008 was a hard year for Korea's construction companies. The real estate downturn resulted in halting new construction and stopping existing work, and inflation of global oil prices caused price hikes in rebar and concrete materials. As a solution to reducing the budget, the newly appointed government announced plans to increase low cost bid contracts from 10 billion to 30 billion won. When such economical and political factors negatively impact the construction market, projects based on low cost contracts are the hardest hit. Many problems already inherent in low cost bid contracts become accentuated. Consequently, this provides an opportune time to actually study and analyze the issues in these projects. This paper introduces the findings made from investigating four projects struggling to make ends meet in the year 2008. Results show that flow of cash (i.e., liquidity), or lack thereof, was the root cause which in turn was hampered by failed mechanisms for design changes, material inflation. Attributing cash flow risk to the bottom of the production structure (i.e., small business subcontractors) was also a problem within the industry. Contractors need a better way to prepare against material price fluctuations, and owners need to assist in expediting payment during times of extreme downturn.

Refinement and Evaluation of Korean Outpatient Groups for Visits with Multiple Procedures and Chemotherapy, and Medical Visit Indicators (한국형 외래환자분류체계의 개선과 평가: 복수시술 및 항암제 진료와 내과적 방문지표를 중심으로)

  • Park, Hayoung;Kang, Gil-Won;Yoon, Sungroh;Park, Eun-Ju;Choi, Sungwoon;Yu, Seunghak;Yang, Eun-Ju
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2015
  • Background: Issues concerning with the classification accuracy of Korean Outpatient Groups (KOPGs) have been raised by providers and researchers. The KOPG is an outpatient classification system used to measure casemix of outpatient visits and to adjust provider risk in charges by the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service in managing insurance payments. The objective of this study were to refine KOPGs to improve the classification accuracy and to evaluate the refinement. Methods: We refined the rules used to classify visits with multiple procedures, newly defined chemotherapy drug groups, and modified the medical visit indicators through reviews of other classification systems, data analyses, and consultations with experts. We assessed the improvement by measuring % of variation in case charges reduced by KOPGs and the refined system, Enhanced KOPGs (EKOPGs). We used claims data submitted by providers to the HIRA during the year 2012 in both refinement and evaluation. Results: EKOPGs explicitly allowed additional payments for multiple procedures with exceptions of packaging of routine ancillary services and consolidation of related significant procedures, and discounts ranging from 30% to 70% were defined in additional payments. Thirteen chemotherapy drug KOPGs were added and medical visit indicators were streamlined to include codes for consultation fees for outpatient visits. The % of variance reduction achieved by EKOPGs was 48% for all patients whereas the figure was 40% for KOPGs, and the improvement was larger in data from tertiary and general hospitals than in data from clinics. Conclusion: A significant improvement in the performance of the KOPG was achieved by refining payments for visits with multiple procedures, defining groups for visits with chemotherapy, and revising medical visit indicators.

A Study on the Current Fire Insurance Subscription and Solutions for Ensuring the Safety of the Traditional Market (전통시장 안전성 확보를 위한 개선방안: 화재보험 가입실태를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yoo-Oh;Byun, Chung-Gyu;Ryu, Tae-Chang
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2011
  • Concerning the risk factors of the outbreak of a fire in a traditional market, most of those markets are located in downtown areas or residential areas; thus, although their location may be favorable in terms of marketability, they face a potential risk in that a fire may develop into a large blaze owing to poor environment or the absence of facilities prepared for disaster during a fire. Moreover, as many people are densely poised in the markets, it is very probable that a fire may occur owing to the excessive use of heaters in the winter as well as the reckless use of electric and gas facilities. It seems that traditional markets encounter difficulty being insured against fire, because of their vulnerability and that the vast majority of small-scale sellers are likely to suffer mental anguish and tremendous physical injury in case of a fire. However, most of those sellers in the traditional markets are hand-to-mouth sellers, and they lack awareness of safety concerns and have insufficient experience in safe facility management. As small-scale sellers constitute the majority in the traditional market, the subscription rate of fire insurance in most of the traditional markets is low for the reasons of their needy circumstances and their financial burden. Statistically, the subscription by street vendors is non-existent; therefore, these vendors have a fairly limited access to indemnification after fire damage. Because of these problems, this study's purpose is to identify the current level of insurance subscription by these markets, which are exposed to poor facilities and vulnerability to fire. In order to fix this, it appears that shop owners and consumers will have to band together. For this study, we executed a fire policyholder fact-finding mission at traditional markets with approximately 108 and 981 stores. The research method was executed by an investigation using one-on-one individual interviews using a questionnaire. The contents investigated current insurance subscriptions. The method of analysis looked at the difference of insured amount according to volume size through cross-tabulation of the difference of insured amount by possession form, difference of insured amount by market form, difference of insured amount by category of business, difference of insured amount by market size, etc. Furthermore, the study should be used to propose solutions for problems through theoretical review with the use of a literature research, because the field case study was through interviews with the persons concerned, and the survey of the current insurance subscriptions by traditional market shopkeepers. The traditional market would generally have difficulty affording fire insurance. Fire insurance subscription rates of most of the market proved to be inactive, because of the economic burden of payment. Lack of funds is thought to be the main factor that causes a lack of realization about the necessity of fire insurance. In addition to expensive insurance premiums, sometimes, the companies' valuation of the businesses is lower than their actual valuations, and they do not pay out enough during a claim. The research presents an improvement plan that, when presented at the traditional markets, may strengthen their ability to procure fire insurance through the help of the central government. Researchers connected with the traditional market mainly accomplish the initial research. However, although this research has its limitations, it offers considerable benefits. For future researchers, I would suggest looking at several regions for comparison.

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Future Direction of National Health Insurance (국민건강보험 발전방향)

  • Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.273-275
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    • 2017
  • It has been forty years since the implementation of National Health Insurance (NHI) in South Korea. Following the 1977 legislature mandating medical insurance for employees and dependents in firms with more than 500 employees, South Korea expanded its health insurance to urban residents in 1989. Resultantly, total expenses of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) have greatly increased from 4.5 billion won in 1977 to 50.89 trillion won in 2016. With multiple insurers merging into the NHI system in 2000, a single-payer healthcare system emerged, along with separation policy of prescribing and dispensing. Following such reform, an emerging financial crisis required injections from the National Health Promotion Fund. Forty years following the introduction of the NHI system, both praise and criticism have been drawn. In just 12 years, the NHI achieved the fastest health population coverage in the world. Current medical expenditure is not high relative to the rest of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The quality of acute care in Korea is one of the best in the world. There is no sign of delayed diagnosis and/or treatment for most diseases. However, the NHI has been under-insured, requiring high-levels of out-of-pocket money from patients and often causing catastrophic medical expenses. Furthermore, the current environmental circumstances of the NHI are threatening its sustainability. Low birth rate decline, as well as slow economic growth, will make sustainment of the current healthcare system difficult in the near future. An aging population will increase the amount of medical expenditure required, especially with the baby-boomer generation of those born between 1955 and 1965. Meanwhile, there is always the problem of unification for the Korean Peninsula, and what role the health insurance system will have to play when it occurs. In the presidential election, health insurance is a main issue; however, there is greater focus on expansion and expenditure than revenue. Many aspects of Korea's NHI system (1977) were modeled after the German (1883) and Japanese (1922) systems. Such systems were created during an era where infections disease control was most urgent and thus, in the current non-communicable disease (NCD) era, must be redesigned. The Korean system, which is already forty years old, must be redesigned completely. Although health insurance benefit expansion is necessary, financial measures, as well as moral hazard control measures, must also be considered. Ultimately, there are three aspects that we must consider when attempting redesign of the system. First, the health security system must be reformed. NHI and Medical Aid must be amalgamated into one system for increased effectiveness and efficiency of the system. Within the single insurer system of the NHI must be an internal market for maximum efficiency. The NHIS must be separated into regions so that regional organizers have greater responsibility over their actions. Although insurance must continue to be imposed nationally, risk-adjustment must be distributed regionally and assessed by different regional systems. Second, as a solution for the decreasing flow of insurance revenue, low premium level must be increased to an appropriate level. Likewise, the national reserve fund (No. 36, National Health Insurance Act) must be enlarged for re-unification preparation. Third, there must be revolutionary reform of benefit package. The current system built a focus on communicable diseases which is inappropriate in this NCD era. Medical benefits must not be one-time events but provide chronic disease management. Chronic care models, accountable care organization, patient-centered medical homes, and other systems that introduce various benefit packages for beneficiaries must be implemented. The reimbursement system of medical costs should be introduced to various systems for different types of care, as is the case with part C (Medicare Advantage Program) of America's Medicare system that substitutes part A and part B. Pay for performance must be expanded so that there is not only improvement in quality of care but also medical costs. Moreover, beneficiaries of the NHI system must be aware of the amount of their expenditure through a deductible payment system so that spending can be profiled and monitored. The Moon Jae-in Government has announced its plans to expand the NHI system; however, it is important that a discussion forum is created so that more accurate analysis of the NHI, its environments, and current status of health care system, can take place for reforming NHI.

A Case Study on the Risk Sharing Structure of Service Contracts in Global Logistics Outsourcing: Comparison of Korea with Foreign Companies (국제물류 계약에서 리스크 공유에 대한 계약서 조항 사례연구 : 국내와 해외 기업 간 비교를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Su;Song, Sang-Hwa
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.35-65
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    • 2013
  • In December 2012, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs and Ministry of Knowledge Economy held a commission and distributed a standardized logistics contract between the shipper and the logistics companies in order to spread and to promote contract standardization. With such background in place, this study examines the leading research on different types and attributions in present logistics contracts in order to propose guidelines for creating contract clauses that would lead to a win-win relationship among the parties involved in the logistics outsourcing relationships. This study further compares and contrasts the concreteness of local and international logistics contracts through case studies, and provides practical thought-provoking points on concretization of clauses on potential risks and additional expenses for local logistics companies when signing logistics contracts. Firstly, the composition and contents of both local and international logistics contracts are similar in the way that both deal with the basic principles between the concerned parties such as the following: contract terms, validity, scope of work, operational procedures, payment terms, and dispute resolutions. Secondly, for flexibility of potential dispute resolution, both logistics contracts define the definition of dispute and follow the classical contractual approach of dispute resolution through third-party arbitration. Thirdly, compared to local contracts, international logistics contracts provide more concretized and specific clauses on the occurrence of potential risks and hazards; on the other hand, compared to international logistics contracts, it seemed that local contracts contained more clauses in favor of the shipper. This research then suggests ideas to eliminate the classic tradition - logistics companies enduring the damages that occur as a result of the structural differences between the shipper and the logistics companies - through efforts to actively negotiate in advance the predictable problems and risks and by reflecting the mutually agreed points in the contract, and further offers guidelines on contract concretization for distribution of standardized logistics contracts in the future.

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Scale and Scope Economies and Prospect for the Korea's Banking Industry (우리나라 은행산업(銀行産業)의 효율성분석(效率性分析)과 제도개선방안(制度改善方案))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.109-153
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    • 1992
  • This paper estimates a translog cost function for the Korea's banking industry and derives various implications on the prospect for the Korean banking structure in the future based on the estimated efficiency indicators for the banking sector. The Korean banking industry is permitted to operate trust business to the full extent and the security business to a limited extent, while it is formally subjected to the strict, specialized banking system. Security underwriting and investment businesses are allowed in a very limited extent only for stocks and bonds of maturity longer than three year and only up to 100 percent of the bank paid-in capital. Until the end of 1991, the ceiling was only up to 25 percent of the total balance of the demand deposits. However, they are prohibited from the security brokerage business. While the in-house integration of security businesses with the traditional business of deposit and commercial lending is restrictively regulated as such, Korean banks can enter the security business by establishing subsidiaries in the industry. This paper, therefore, estimates the efficiency indicators as well as the cost functions, identifying the in-house integrated trust business and security investment business as important banking activities, for various cases where both the production and the intermediation function approaches in modelling the financial intermediaries are separately applied, and the banking businesses of deposit, lending and security investment as one group and the trust businesses as another group are separately and integrally analyzed. The estimation results of the efficiency indicators for various cases are summarized in Table 1 and Table 2. First, security businesses exhibit economies of scale but also economies of scope with traditional banking activities, which implies that in-house integration of the banking and security businesses may not be a nonoptimal banking structure. Therefore, this result further implies that the transformation of Korea's banking system from the current, specialized system to the universal banking system will not impede the improvement of the banking industry's efficiency. Second, the lending businesses turn out to be subjected to diseconomies of scale, while exhibiting unclear evidence for economies of scope. In sum, it implies potential efficiency gain of the continued in-house integration of the lending activity. Third, the continued integration of the trust businesses seems to contribute to improving the efficiency of the banking businesses, since the trust businesses exhibit economies of scope. Fourth, deposit services and fee-based activities, such as foreign exchange and credit card businesses, exhibit economies of scale but constant returns to scope, which implies, the possibility of separating those businesses from other banking and trust activities. The recent trend of the credit card business being operated separately from other banking activities by an independent identity in Korea as well as in the global banking market seems to be consistent with this finding. Then, how can the possibility of separating deposit services from the remaining activities be interpreted? If one insists a strict definition of commercial banking that is confined to deposit and commercial lending activities, separating the deposit service will suggest a resolution or a disappearance of banking, itself. Recently, however, there has been a suggestion that separating banks' deposit and lending activities by allowing a depository institution which specialize in deposit taking and investing deposit fund only in the safest securities such as government securities to administer the deposit activity will alleviate the risk of a bank run. This method, in turn, will help improve the safety of the payment system (Robert E. Litan, What should Banks Do? Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institution, 1987). In this context, the possibility of separating the deposit activity will imply that a new type of depository institution will arise naturally without contradicting the efficiency of the banking businesses, as the size of the banking market grows in the future. Moreover, it is also interesting to see additional evidences confirming this statement that deposit taking and security business are cost complementarity but deposit taking and lending businesses are cost substitute (see Table 2 for cost complementarity relationship in Korea's banking industry). Finally, it has been observed that the Korea's banking industry is lacking in the characteristics of natural monopoly. Therefore, it may not be optimal to encourage the merger and acquisition in the banking industry only for the purpose of improving the efficiency.

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