• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제46권6호
• /
• pp.773-782
• /
• 2014

The general path model (GPM) is one approach for performing degradation-based, or Type III, prognostics. The GPM fits a parametric function to the collected observations of a prognostic parameter and extrapolates the fit to a failure threshold. This approach has been successfully applied to a variety of systems when a sufficient number of prognostic parameter observations are available. However, the parametric fit can suffer significantly when few data are available or the data are very noisy. In these instances, it is beneficial to include additional information to influence the fit to conform to a prior belief about the evolution of system degradation. Bayesian statistical approaches have been proposed to include prior information in the form of distributions of expected model parameters. This requires a number of run-to-failure cases with tracked prognostic parameters; these data may not be readily available for many systems. Reliability information and stressor-based (Type I and Type II, respectively) prognostic estimates can provide the necessary prior belief for the GPM. This article presents the Bayesian updating framework to include prior information in the GPM and compares the efficacy of including different information sources on two data sets.

• 설비공학논문집
• /
• 제17권8호
• /
• pp.695-703
• /
• 2005

The objective of this study is to determine the effective thermal conductivity and thermal resistance values in test boreholes with three different fill materials. To evaluate these heat transfer properties, in-situ tests on four vertical boreholes were conducted by adding a monitored amount of heat to water over various test lengths. Two parameter estimation models, line-source and numerical one-dimensional models, for evaluation of thermal response test data were compared when applied on the same four data sets. Results show that the average thermal conductivity deviation between measured data and these two models is in the range of $3.03\%$ to $4.45\%$. The effect of increasing grout thermal conductivity from 1.34 to 1.82 $W/m^{\circ}C$ resulted in overall increases in effective formation thermal conductivity by $11.1\%$ to $51.9\%$ and reductions in borehole thermal resistance by $11.6\%$ to $26.1\%$.

• 한국환경과학회지
• /
• 제26권10호
• /
• pp.1125-1133
• /
• 2017

In this study a method for filling in missing data of river water temperature using a pre-constructed mathematical relationship between air and water temperatures is presented. A regression between water temperatures at individual stations and ambient air temperatures at nearby weather stations can provide a practical method for representing missing water temperature data for an entire region. Air and water temperature data that were collected from two test sites (one coastal and, one inland) were individually fitted to a nonlinear regression model. To consider seasonal hysteresis effects, separate functions were fitted to the data in the rising and falling limbs. A single-criterion, multi-parameter optimization technique was used to determine the optimal parameter sets. This method minimizes the differences between the time series of the measured and estimated data. The constructed air-water temperature relationship was subsequently applied to represent missing water temperature data. It was found that the RMSEs(MBEs) were in the range of $1.843-1.976^{\circ}C(-0.329-0.201^{\circ}C)$ and the coefficient of determination were in the range of 0.92-0.96. The results demonstrate that the predicted water temperatures using the regression equations were reasonably accurate.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제70권3호
• /
• pp.289-301
• /
• 2019

Hysteretic energy is defined as energy dissipated through inelastic deformations during a ground motion by the system. It includes frequency content and duration of ground motion as two remarkable parameters, while these characteristics are not seen in displacement spectrum. Since maximum displacement individually cannot be the appropriate criterion for damage assessment, hysteretic energy has been evaluated in this research as a more comprehensive seismic demand parameter. An innovative methodology has been proposed to establish a new equivalent linear model to estimate hysteretic energy spectrum for bilinear SDOF models under two different sets of earthquake excitations. Error minimization has been defined in the space of equivalent linearization concept, which resulted in equivalent damping and equivalent period as representative parameters of the linear model. Nonlinear regression analysis was carried out for predicting these equivalent parameter as a function of ductility. The results also indicate differences between seismic demand characteristics of far-field and near-field ground motions, which are not identified by most of previous equations presented for predicting seismic energy. The main advantage of the proposed model is its independency on parameters related to earthquake and response characteristics, which has led to more efficiency as well as simplicity. The capability of providing a practical energy based seismic performance evaluation is another outstanding feature of the proposed model.

• 한국산림과학회지
• /
• 제87권1호
• /
• pp.40-49
• /
• 1998

본 연구는 보다 정확한 모수(母數) 추정을 통한 생장(生長)모델의 현실성을 향상시키는데 이용되는 생장 측정간격(임목의 측정 초기 연령 $T_1$과 재측정 연령 $T_2$의 기간)의 적합한 조합을 선택하기 위한 계획을 제공하는데 목적이 있다. 다양한 생장식을 데이터에 적용한 후 가장 적합한 것으로 판정된 생장식을 분석에 이용하였다. 여러 생장식을 분석한 결과 최적의 생장식으로 판명된 더미 변수를 포함하는 변형 Schumacher 방정식을 임분 흉고단면적(胸高斷面績) 생장식과 평균수고(平均樹高) 생장식을 얻기 위하여 이용하였다. 그리고 사용된 자료는 뉴질랜드 남섬 전역에서 측정된 업송(業松)(Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb.Franco)의 생장 측정기간이 변형되지 않은 데이터와 모든 가능한 생장 측정기간을 포함하는 변형된 2종류의 데이터이었다. 단기의 측정기간에서부터 장기의 측정기간의 범위를 포함하는 데이터(모든 가능한 생장 측정기간을 포함하는 데이터)를 사용할 때 흉고단면적 생장식과 임분 평균수고 생장식에서 모수 추정의 정확성이 증가되는 것이 발견되었다.

• 정보처리학회논문지D
• /
• 제15D권3호
• /
• pp.313-320
• /
• 2008

전형적인 소프트웨어 생명주기 모델은 결점이 추가되거나 제거되는 단계들의 일련의 순서로 구성되어 있다. 우리가 원하는 수준의 품질을 달성하기 위해서는 소프트웨어 개발 전 과정에서 결점 제거를 수행하여야 한다. 잘 알려진 단계기반 결점 프로파일은 Gaffney 모델이 있다. 이 모델은 결점 제거 프로파일이 Rayleigh 분포를 따르며 단계 인덱스 번호를 모수로 하고 있다. 실제 개발되는 소프트웨어에 Gaffney 모델을 적용시 제거된 결점이 최대값이 되는 점을 위치 모수가 표현하지 못하는 문제가 있다. 그러므로 Gaffney 모델은 실제 결점 프로파일을 표현하지 못한다. 본 논문은 2개의 다른 모델을 제시한다. 하나는 수정된 Gaffney 모델로 위치 모수를 교체하기 위해 Putnam의 SLIM 모델의 모수를 도입하였다. 다른 하나는 누적 결점 프로파일이 S자 형태를 보여 성장곡선 모델을 제시하였다. 제안된 모델은 5개의 다른 소프트웨어 프로젝트로부터 얻어진 결점 프로파일 분석에 의해 검증하였다. 실험 결과 제안된 모델이 Gaffney 모델 보다 좋은 결과를 얻었다.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제17권11호
• /
• pp.11-18
• /
• 2012

토석류 퇴적 모델은 토석류에 의한 피해지 예측을 위해 random walk model(RWM)을 사용하여 구성한 모델로 피해지 예측에서 그 효용성이 입증되었지만 몇 개의 자유 파라미터가 실험적으로 결정되어야 하는 문제점이 있다. 파라미터를 자동으로 추정하기 위한 방법은 여러 가지가 있지만 토석류 데이터는 학습 데이터의 크기가 작아 기존 학습 기법을 적용하는데 어려움이 있다. 이 논문에서는 학습 데이터 크기 문제를 완화할 수 있는 신경망의 변형인 의사 샘플 신경망을 제안하였다. 의사 샘플 신경망은기존 샘플로부터 의사 샘플을생성하고 이를 학습에 사용한다. 의사 샘플은 해공간을 평탄화시키고 국부 최적해에 빠질 확률을 줄여줌으로써 기존 신경망에 비해 안정적인 파라미터 추정이 가능해진다. 이러한 사실은 실험 결과 통해 확인할 수 있다.

• 한국주조공학회지
• /
• 제33권1호
• /
• pp.13-21
• /
• 2013

The effects of rare earth element (R.E.) and cooling rate on the eutectic reaction of flake graphite cast irons were studied by combined analysis of macro/micro-structure and cooling curve data. The correlation between eutectic reaction parameter and macro/micro-structure was systematically investigated. Two sets of chemical compositions with the different addition of R.E. were designed to cast. Three types of molds for cylindrical specimens with the different diameters were prepared to analyze cooling rate effect. The difference between undercooling temperature and cementite eutectic temperature (${\Delta}T_1=T_{U}-T_{E,C}$), which is increased by adding R.E. and decreased by increasing cooling rate, is considered to be a suitable eutectic reaction parameter for predicting graphite morphology. According to the criterion, A-type graphite is mainly suggested to form for ${\Delta}T_1$ over $20^{\circ}C$. Eutectic reaction time (${\Delta}t$), which is decreased by adding R.E. or increasing cooling rate, is a suitable eutectic reaction parameter for predicting eutectic cell size. Eutectic cell size is found to decrease in a proportion to the decrease of ${\Delta}t$.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한기계학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집A
• /
• pp.223-230
• /
• 2001

The Monkman-Grant (M-G) and its modified parameters were estimated for modified type 316LN and $9{\sim}12Cr-1Mo$ steels with chemical variations. Several sets of creep data were obtained by constant-load creep tests in $550-650^{\circ}C$ ranges. The relation parameters, m, $m^*$, C and $C^*$ were proposed and discussed for two alloy systems. In creep fracture mode, type 316LN steel showed domination of the intergranular fracture caused by growth and coalescence of cavities. On the other hand, the Cr-Mo steel showed transgranular fracture of the ductile type caused from softening at high temperature. In spite of the basic differences in creep fracture modes as well as creep properties, the M-G and its modified relations demonstrated linearity within the $2{\sigma}$ standard deviation. The value of the m parameter of the M-G relation was 0.90 in the 316LN steel and 0.84 in the Cr-Mo steel. The value of the $m^*$ parameter of the modified relation was 0.94 in the 316LN steel and 0.89 in Cr-Mo steel. The modified relation was superior to the M-G relation because the $m^*$ slopes almost overlapped regardless of creep testing conditions and chemical variations to the two alloy systems.

• Progress in Superconductivity
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.143-151
• /
• 2007

Accurate measurements of the microwave surface resistance (Rs) of high temperature superconductor (HTS) films are important with regard to applications of HTS materials for wireless communications. As the surface resistance values of HTS films are usually extracted from the measured unloaded quality factor ($Q_0$) of resonators made of HTS films, it is essential to measure the resonator $Q_0$ with accuracy. The $TE_{011}\;mode\;Q_0$ of sapphire resonators with the endplates made of $YBa_2Cu_3O_{7-{\delta}}$(YBCO) film on $LaAlO_3$ is measured by using the S-parameter circle-fit method at a frequency of about 19.6 GHz and temperatures of 30 K to 90 K, which is compared with the measured values by using the Lorentzian-fit method. Good agreements are found between the two sets of $Q_0$ values measured by using the two different methods whether the resonator is used in a weak-coupling scheme or a strong-coupling scheme, showing reliability of both methods fur measuring the resonator $Q_0$ accurately. The $Q_0$ of sapphire resonators with a gap between the top plate and the rest of the resonator is also discussed.