• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.49-64
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• 2015

This paper presents a method for assessing the risk of wave run-up and overtopping of existing coastal defences and for analysing the probability of failure of the structures under future hydraulic conditions. The recent UK climate projections are employed in the investigations of the influence of changing environments on the long-term performance of sea defences. In order to reduce the risk of wave run-up and overtopping caused by rising sea level and to maintain the present-day allowances for wave run-up height and overtopping discharge, the future necessary increase in crest level of existing structures is investigated. Various critical failure mechanisms are considered for reliability analysis, i.e., erosion of crest by wave overtopping, failure of seaside revetment, and internal erosions within earth sea dykes. The time-dependent reliability of sea dykes is analysed to give probability of failure with time. The results for an example earth dyke section show that the necessary increase in crest level is approximately double of sea level rise to maintain the current allowances. The probability of failure for various failure modes of the earth dyke has a significant increase with time under future hydraulic conditions.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.29 no.A
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• pp.101-110
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• 2009

Due to frequent occurrence of a localized torrential downpour caused by global warming and change of outflow tendency caused by rapid urbanization and industrialization, risk analysis must be carried out in levee design with uncertainty. In this study, reliability analysis was introduced to quantitatively evaluate the overtopping risk of levee by the uncertainty. First of all, breaking function was established as a function of flood stage and height of levee. All variables of breaking function were considered as random variables following any distribution functions, and the risk was defined as the possibility that the flood stage is formed higher than height of levee. The risk evaluation model was developed with AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach). The flood stage computed by 2-D numerical model FESWMS-2DH was used as input data for the model of levee risk evaluation. Risk for levee submergence were quantitatively presented for levee of Wol-Song-Cheon.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.163-171
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• 2020

In this study, a large laboratory model experiment was conducted with the aim of developing an embankment reinforcement method to prevent overtopping, which is the main cause for the failure of agricultural reservoirs. The model experiment was carried out with concrete and asphalt as a permanent reinforcement method and with geomembrane as the emergency method at a deteriorated homogeneous reservoir. Under the non-reinforced conditions, the pattern of the failure appeared in several scour directions from the downstream slope as the overtopping began, and the width and depth of the erosion were magnified as it gradually moved to the dam crest. Under the conditions reinforced with asphalt and concrete, the overtopping was stabilized. In the case of the concrete reinforcement, it was found that the slope of the riprap boundary exhibited downward erosion by the current; thus, it was necessary to construct an extension up to the riprap joint of the upstream and downstream sides to prevent the expansion of the failure. Under the conditions reinforced with the geomembrane sheet, the overtopping was stabilized, and no seepage was found that required the emergency reinforcement method. Asphalt, concrete, and geomembrane sheet reinforcements have been shown to be capable of delaying failure for about 1 hour and 40 minutes compared to the non-reinforcement conditions. The reinforcement method is considered to be a very effective method to prevent disasters during overtopping. The pore water pressure can be used as useful data to predict the risk of failure at an embankment.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.31 no.8
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• pp.51-62
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• 2015

It is not possible to provide resonable evidence for embankment (or dam) overtopping in geotechnical engineering, and conventional analysis by hydrologic design has not provided the evidence for the overflow. However, hydrologic design analysis using Copula function demonstrates the possibility that dam overflow occurs when estimating rainfall probability with rainfall data for 40 years based on fluctuating water level of a dam. Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship needs to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated with modeling process and inputs. The systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, the initial level of a dam for stability of a dam is generally determined by normal pool level or limiting the level of the flood, but overflow of probability and instability of a dam depend on the sensitivity analysis of the initial level of a dam. In order to estimate the initial level, Copula function and HEC-5 rainfall-runoff model are used to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. For geotechnical engineering, slope stability analysis was performed to investigate the difference between rapid drawdown and overtopping of a dam. As a result, the slope instability in overtopping of a dam was more dangerous than that of rapid drawdown condition.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.337-345
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• 1998

DAMBRK-U model is developed for the evaluation of overtopping risk of dam and levee and for the estimation of uncertainty in floodwave simulation. The original algorithm is revised and expanded to include Monte-Carlo analysis to estimate them. The model is tested by applying to hypothetical channels of widening, uniform and narrowing geometry. Larger variation in discharge and water depth are expected at narrower sections of a river. It is calibrated by applying to the Hantan River, where severe damages from Yunchun dam-break and levee overtopping occurred on July, 1996. Overtopping risk of dam is calculated for various discharge conditions for Yunchun-dam, and that of levee is also calculated by comparing levee height with flood level at Hantan recreation area. Simulation results show that the overflow depth of flood level is 1,266~0.782 m and the overflow risk turns out to be 100%.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.15-30
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• 2000

This study is to develop the applied method of reliability analysis to present risk - initial water level relationship in the small reservoir. To determine the reliability, the grasping of uncertainty sources is prerequisited and performance function is formulated. Reliability analysis method is a statistical method and the basic procedure of risk evaluation for overtopping of reservoir is as follows. 1. Define the risk criterion and performance function for the overtopping. 2. Determine the uncertainties of all the variables in the performance function. 3. Perform the risk analysis with suitable risk calculation method. Reliability analysis method such as Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method and mean value first order second moment(MVFOSM) method are used to calculate the risk for reservoir. Finally, risk - initial water level relationship is established according to return period and it is useful for reservoir operation and safety assessment.ssment.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.1007-1019
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• 2015

The determination of the required seawall height is usually based on the combination of wind speed (or wave height) and still water level according to a specified return period, e.g., 50-year return period wind speed and 50-year return period still water level. In reality, the two variables are be partially correlated. This may be lead to over-design (costs) of seawall structures. The above-mentioned return period for the design of a seawall depends on economy, society and natural environment in the region. This means a specified risk level of overtopping or damage of a seawall structure is usually allowed. The aim of this paper is to present a conditional risk probability-based seawall height design method which incorporates the correlation of the two variables. For purposes of demonstration, the wind speeds and water levels collected from Jiangsu of China are analyzed. The results show this method can improve seawall height design accuracy.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.147-155
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• 2023

This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.135-138
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• 2005

This study began to establish a risk evaluation method for irrigation reservoirs under the overtopping failure mode. To define the risk, reliability analysis was performed using time series of reservoir flood inflow and spillway outflow. The former was defined as a load and the latter was the resistance component. The method results in failure probability, which is calculated by convolution multiplication between probability distribution functions of both components. The proposed method was applied to 3 reservoir sites and each failure probability was determined as 0.0012, 0.00001, and 0.000001 respectively.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.45-57
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• 2016

Levee safety is being evaluated using one of the several failure causes including overtopping, infiltration and erosion or 1D hydraulic analysis considering physical characteristics of levee in practical engineering works. However, mentioned evaluation methods are not able to consider various failure causes of levee at the same time and to get reliable results where requires the accurate topographic information. This study proposed the flood hazard index which is able to consider several hazard factors involving overtopping, infiltration and erosion risk simultaneously. The index was generated from results of 2D hydraulic analysis reflecting accurate topographic information. The study areas are the confluences of the Nakdong River and two streams(Gamcheon and Hoecheon). Levee safety was evaluated using results based on 2D hydraulic analysis considering riverbed changes of before and after dredging work in the study area. This study will contribute to estimate the reliable safety evaluation of levee where may have hazards during extreme flood events.