• Title/Summary/Keyword: overestimation

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GIS-based Disaster Management System for a Private Insurance Company in Case of Typhoons(I) (지리정보기반의 재해 관리시스템 구축(I) -민간 보험사의 사례, 태풍의 경우-)

  • Chang Eun-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.41 no.1 s.112
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    • pp.106-120
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    • 2006
  • Natural or man-made disaster has been expected to be one of the potential themes that can integrate human geography and physical geography. Typhoons like Rusa and Maemi caused great loss to insurance companies as well as public sectors. We have implemented a natural disaster management system for a private insurance company to produce better estimation of hazards from high wind as well as calculate vulnerability of damage. Climatic gauge sites and addresses of contract's objects were geo-coded and the pressure values along all the typhoon tracks were vectorized into line objects. National GIS topog raphic maps with scale of 1: 5,000 were updated into base maps and digital elevation model with 30 meter space and land cover maps were used for reflecting roughness of land to wind velocity. All the data are converted to grid coverage with $1km{\times}1km$. Vulnerability curve of Munich Re was ad opted, and preprocessor and postprocessor of wind velocity model was implemented. Overlapping the location of contracts on the grid value coverage can show the relative risk, with given scenario. The wind velocities calculated by the model were compared with observed value (average $R^2=0.68$). The calibration of wind speed models was done by dropping two climatic gauge data, which enhanced $R^2$ values. The comparison of calculated loss with actual historical loss of the insurance company showed both underestimation and overestimation. This system enables the company to have quantitative data for optimizing the re-insurance ratio, to have a plan to allocate enterprise resources and to upgrade the international creditability of the company. A flood model, storm surge model and flash flood model are being added, at last, combined disaster vulnerability will be calculated for a total disaster management system.

Analysis of the Effect of the Revised Ground Amplification Factor on the Macro Liquefaction Assessment Method (개정된 지반증폭계수의 Macro적 액상화 평가에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Baek, Woo-Hyun;Choi, Jae-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.5-15
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    • 2020
  • The liquefaction phenomenon that occurred during the Pohang earthquake (ML=5.4) brought new awareness to the people about the risk of liquefaction caused by the earthquake. Liquefaction hazard maps with 2 km grid made in 2014 used more than 100,000 borehole data for the whole country, and regions without soil investigation data were produced using interpolation. In the mapping of macro liquefaction hazard for the whole country, the site amplification effect and the ground water level 0 m were considered. Recently, the Ministry of Public Administration and Security (2018) published a new site classification method and amplification coefficient of the common standard for seismic design. Therefore, it is necessary to rewrite the liquefaction hazard map reflecting the revised amplification coefficient. In this study, the results of site classification according to the average shear wave velocity in soils before and after revision were compared in the whole country. Also, liquefaction assessment results were compared in Gangseo-gu, Busan. At this time, two ground accelerations corresponding to the 500 and 1,000 years of return period and two ground water table, 5 m for the average condition and 0 m the extreme condition were applied. In the drawing of liquefaction hazard map, a 500 m grid was applied to secure a resolution higher than the previous 2 km grid. As a result, the ground conditions that were classified as SC and SD grounds based on the existing site classification standard were reclassified as S2, S3, and S4 through the revised site classification standard. Also, the result of the Liquefaction assessments with a return period of 500 years and 1,000 years resulted in a relatively overestimation of the LPI applied with the ground amplification factor before revision. And the results of this study have a great influence on the liquefaction assessment, which is the basis of the creation of the regional liquefaction hazard map using the amplification factor.

Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

Prediction of Potential Risk Posed by a Military Gunnery Range after Flood Control Reservoir Construction (홍수조절지 건설 후 사격장 주변지역의 위해성예측 사례연구)

  • Ryu, Hye-Rim;Han, Joon-Kyoung;Nam, Kyoung-Phile;Bae, Bum-Han
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2007
  • Risk assessment was carried out in order to improve the remediation and management strategy on a contaminated gunnery site, where a flood control reservoir is under construction nearby. Six chemicals, including explosive chemicals and heavy metals, which were suspected to possess risk to humans by leaching events from the site were the target pollutants for the assessment. A site-specific conceptual site model was constructed based on effective, reasonable exposure pathways to avoid any overestimation of the risk. Also, conservative default values were adapted to prevent underestimation of the risk when site-specific values were not available. The risks of the six contaminants were calculated by API's Decision Support System for Exposure and Risk Assessment with several assumptions. In the crater-formed-area(Ac), the non-carcinogenic risks(i.e., HI values) of TNT(Tri-Nitro-Toluene) and Cd were slightly larger than 1, and for RDX(Royal Demolition Explosives), over 50. The total non-carcinogenic risk of the whole gunnery range calculated to a significantly high value of 62.5. Carcinogenicity of Cd was estimated to be about $10^{-3}$, while that of Pb was about $5\;{\times}\;10^{-4}$, which greatly exceeded the generally acceptable carcinogenic risk level of $10^{-4}{\sim}10^{-6}$. The risk assessment results suggest that an immediate remediation practice for both carcinogens and non-carcinogens are required before the reservoir construction. However, for more accurate risk assessment, more specific estimations on condition shifts due to the construction of the reservoir are required, and more over, the effects of the pollutants to the ecosystem is also necessary to be evaluated.

A Performance Comparison of the Mobile Agent Model with the Client-Server Model under Security Conditions (보안 서비스를 고려한 이동 에이전트 모델과 클라이언트-서버 모델의 성능 비교)

  • Han, Seung-Wan;Jeong, Ki-Moon;Park, Seung-Bae;Lim, Hyeong-Seok
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.286-298
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    • 2002
  • The Remote Procedure Call(RPC) has been traditionally used for Inter Process Communication(IPC) among precesses in distributed computing environment. As distributed applications have been complicated more and more, the Mobile Agent paradigm for IPC is emerged. Because there are some paradigms for IPC, researches to evaluate and compare the performance of each paradigm are issued recently. But the performance models used in the previous research did not reflect real distributed computing environment correctly, because they did not consider the evacuation elements for providing security services. Since real distributed environment is open, it is very vulnerable to a variety of attacks. In order to execute applications securely in distributed computing environment, security services which protect applications and information against the attacks must be considered. In this paper, we evaluate and compare the performance of the Remote Procedure Call with that of the Mobile Agent in IPC paradigms. We examine security services to execute applications securely, and propose new performance models considering those services. We design performance models, which describe information retrieval system through N database services, using Petri Net. We compare the performance of two paradigms by assigning numerical values to parameters and measuring the execution time of two paradigms. In this paper, the comparison of two performance models with security services for secure communication shows the results that the execution time of the Remote Procedure Call performance model is sharply increased because of many communications with the high cryptography mechanism between hosts, and that the execution time of the Mobile Agent model is gradually increased because the Mobile Agent paradigm can reduce the quantity of the communications between hosts.

A Sensitivity Analysis of JULES Land Surface Model for Two Major Ecosystems in Korea: Influence of Biophysical Parameters on the Simulation of Gross Primary Productivity and Ecosystem Respiration (한국의 두 주요 생태계에 대한 JULES 지면 모형의 민감도 분석: 일차생산량과 생태계 호흡의 모사에 미치는 생물리모수의 영향)

  • Jang, Ji-Hyeon;Hong, Jin-Kyu;Byun, Young-Hwa;Kwon, Hyo-Jung;Chae, Nam-Yi;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.107-121
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    • 2010
  • We conducted a sensitivity test of Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), in which the influence of biophysical parameters on the simulation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) was investigated for two typical ecosystems in Korea. For this test, we employed the whole-year observation of eddy-covariance fluxes measured in 2006 at two KoFlux sites: (1) a deciduous forest in complex terrain in Gwangneung and (2) a farmland with heterogeneous mosaic patches in Haenam. Our analysis showed that the simulated GPP was most sensitive to the maximum rate of RuBP carboxylation and leaf nitrogen concentration for both ecosystems. RE was sensitive to wood biomass parameter for the deciduous forest in Gwangneung. For the mixed farmland in Haenam, however, RE was most sensitive to the maximum rate of RuBP carboxylation and leaf nitrogen concentration like the simulated GPP. For both sites, the JULES model overestimated both GPP and RE when the default values of input parameters were adopted. Considering the fact that the leaf nitrogen concentration observed at the deciduous forest site was only about 60% of its default value, the significant portion of the model's overestimation can be attributed to such a discrepancy in the input parameters. Our finding demonstrates that the abovementioned key biophysical parameters of the two ecosystems should be evaluated carefully prior to any simulation and interpretation of ecosystem carbon exchange in Korea.

Evaluation of Community Land Model version 3.5-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model over Deciduous Forest in Gwangneung, Korea (광릉 활엽수림에서 Community Land Model 3.5-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model의 평가)

  • Lim, Hee-Jeong;Lee, Young-Hee;Kwon, Hyo-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2010
  • The performance of Community Land Model version 3.5 - Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM) was evaluated through a comparison with the observation over temperate deciduous forest in Gwangneung, Korea. Influence of plant phenology, composition of plant functional type, and climate variability on carbon exchanges was also examined through sensitivity test. To get equilibrium carbon storage, the model was run for 400 years driven by the observed atmospheric data at the deciduous forest of the year 2006. We run the model for 2006 with the equilibrium carbon storage at Gwangneung forest and compared the model output with the observation. A comparison of leaf area index (LAI) between the model and observation indicated that the simulated phenology poorly represented the timing of budburst, leaf-fall, and evolution of LAI. Senescence of the phenology was delayed about four weeks and the simulated maximum LAI (of 5.8 $m^2$ $m^{-2}$) was greater than the observed value (of 4.5 $m^2$ $m^{-2}$). The overestimated LAI contributed to overestimation of both gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration $(R_e)$ through increased photosynthesis and foliar autotropic respiration $(R_a)$, respectively. Despite the discrepancy between the simulated and observed LAI, the simulated tree carbon storage amounts were comparable with the reported values at the site. Change in plant phenology from the simulated to the observed reduced more than six weeks of the plant growth period, resulting in the decreased amount of GPP and $R_e$. These values, however, were still higher (~10% of GPP and 40% of $R_e$) than the observed values. The effect of change in plant functional type composition (from dominant temperate deciduous forest to the coexistence of temperate deciduous and needle leaf forests) on the estimated amount of GPP and $R_e$ was marginal. The influence of climate variability on carbon storage amounts was not significant. The simulated inter-annual variation of GPP and $R_e$ from 1994 to 2003 depended on annual mean air temperature and total radiation but not on precipitation. Other deficiencies of CLM3.5-DGVM have been discussed.

Blood Pressure Cuff Bladders Tailored For Koreans (한국인 맞춤형 혈압계 커프 블래더)

  • Hwang, Lark Hoon;Park, Woo Sung;Na, Seung Kwon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.38C no.9
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    • pp.822-829
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    • 2013
  • Hypertension is one of the most common clinical diseases, with an increasing prevalence globally. Hypertension triggers various harmful consequences and affects multiple organs. Life-long care may be required in some cases. According to the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the prevalence of hypertension is gradually increasing. A 2011 survey revealed that 28.9% of Korean adults had hypertension. The prevalence rates were slightly higher among men than women. Accurate measurement of blood pressure(BP) is crucial to classify patients, to identify BP-related risks, and to inform correct treatment. For accurate blood pressure measurement, the use of a cuff bladder size appropriate for the mid-upper arm circumference(MUAC) is essential. Incorrect sized cuff bladder is one of the main causes of equipment error affecting sphygmomanometer accuracy. When commercial sphygmomanometers were examined, the cuff bladders differed from the dimensions specified in the ISO 81060-1:2007 standards. Undercuffing is responsible for a spurious overestimation of BP in patients with large arms leading to overdiagnosis of hypertension, whereas overcuffing (that is, use of relatively large cuffs with small arms), may be responsible for an opposite problem, leading to erroneous underestimation of BP levels. The cuff bladder sizes recommended by the American Heart Association(AHA) are an arm circumference(AC) of 17-25 cm for small-sized adults, AC of 24-32 cm for adults, AC of 32-42 cm for normal-sized adults, and AC of 42-50 cm for obese adults. In contrast, the AC of Korean adults ranges from 23-31 cm, belonging to a single type of adult bladder. Three types of bladders are necessary for Korean adults with an AC of 23-31cm. Hospitals often use one or two differently-sized Western cuffs for adult patients, which can yield inaccurate BP determinations. Cuff bladders with dimensions based on anthropometric reference data obtained from Koreans will aid hospitals to measure BP more accurately.

Analysis of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Alleviating Effect of Urban Parks and Green Space in Seoul Using Deep Neural Network (DNN) Model (심층신경망 모형을 이용한 서울시 도시공원 및 녹지공간의 열섬저감효과 분석)

  • Kim, Byeong-chan;Kang, Jae-woo;Park, Chan;Kim, Hyun-jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2020
  • The Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect has intensified due to urbanization and heat management at the urban level is treated as an important issue. Green space improvement projects and environmental policies are being implemented as a way to alleviate Urban Heat Islands. Several studies have been conducted to analyze the correlation between urban green areas and heat with linear regression models. However, linear regression models have limitations explaining the correlation between heat and the multitude of variables as heat is a result of a combination of non-linear factors. This study evaluated the Heat Island alleviating effects in Seoul during the summer by using a deep neural network model methodology, which has strengths in areas where it is difficult to analyze data with existing statistical analysis methods due to variable factors and a large amount of data. Wide-area data was acquired using Landsat 8. Seoul was divided into a grid (30m × 30m) and the heat island reduction variables were enter in each grid space to create a data structure that is needed for the construction of a deep neural network using ArcGIS 10.7 and Python3.7 with Keras. This deep neural network was used to analyze the correlation between land surface temperature and the variables. We confirmed that the deep neural network model has high explanatory accuracy. It was found that the cooling effect by NDVI was the greatest, and cooling effects due to the park size and green space proximity were also shown. Previous studies showed that the cooling effects related to park size was 2℃-3℃, and the proximity effect was found to lower the temperature 0.3℃-2.3℃. There is a possibility of overestimation of the results of previous studies. The results of this study can provide objective information for the justification and more effective formation of new urban green areas to alleviate the Urban Heat Island phenomenon in the future.

Intercomparison of Daegwallyeong Cloud Physics Observation System (CPOS) Products and the Visibility Calculation by the FSSP Size Distribution during 2006-2008 (대관령 구름물리관측시스템 산출물 평가 및 FSSP를 이용한 시정환산 시험연구)

  • Yang, Ha-Young;Jeong, Jin-Yim;Chang, Ki-Ho;Cha, Joo-Wan;Jung, Jae-Won;Kim, Yoo-Chul;Lee, Myoung-Joo;Bae, Jin-Young;Kang, Sun-Young;Kim, Kum-Lan;Choi, Young-Jean;Choi, Chee-Young
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2010
  • To observe and analyze the characteristics of cloud and precipitation properties, the Cloud physics Observation System (CPOS) has been operated from December 2003 at Daegwallyeong ($37.4^{\circ}N$, $128.4^{\circ}E$, 842 m) in the Taebaek Mountains. The major instruments of CPOS are follows: Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP), Optical Particle Counter (OPC), Visibility Sensor (VS), PARSIVEL disdrometer, Microwave Radiometer (MWR), and Micro Rain Radar (MRR). The former four instruments (FSSP, OPC, visibility sensor, and PARSIVEL) are for the observation and analysis of characteristics of the ground cloud (fog) and precipitation, and the others are for the vertical cloud characteristics (http://weamod.metri.re.kr) in real time. For verification of CPOS products, the comparison between the instrumental products has been conducted: the qualitative size distributions of FSSP and OPC during the hygroscopic seeding experiments, the precipitable water vapors of MWR and radiosonde, and the rainfall rates of the PARSIVEL(or MRR) and rain gauge. Most of comparisons show a good agreement with the correlation coefficient more than 0.7. These reliable CPOS products will be useful for the cloud-related studies such as the cloud-aerosol indirect effect or cloud seeding. The visibility value is derived from the droplet size distribution of FSSP. The derived FSSP visibility shows the constant overestimation by 1.7 to 1.9 times compared with the values of two visibility sensors (SVS (Sentry Visibility Sensor) and PWD22 (Present Weather Detect 22)). We believe this bias is come from the limitation of the droplet size range ($2{\sim}47\;{\mu}m$) measured by FSSP. Further studies are needed after introducing new instruments with other ranges.