• Title/Summary/Keyword: output prediction

Search Result 736, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

A Study on the Noise Reduction of Compartment of Vehicle Using Sensitivity Analysis of Engine Exciting Force (엔진 가진력의 감도해석을 이용한 차실 소음 저감에 관한 연구)

  • 오재응;김태욱;송재은;이해승
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.171-178
    • /
    • 1997
  • Vehicle interior noise has become increasingly important in this recent years. The noise of a vehicle is one of the important problems in a vehicle design. The interior noise is caused by various vibration sources of vehicle compartment. The booming noise of a vehicle can be significantly affected by vibrations transmitted from engine excitation forces to the vehicle body. Specially, we are interested in the state of transmission paths such as engine mounts to reduce noise in a vehicle compartment. In this paper, we have been calculated the contribution of each transmission path such as engine mounts to interior noise. To identify contribution of each input sources and transmission paths to output, the effectiveness of each input component to output is calculated. Sensitivity analysis is carried out for investigation of contribution to output due to input variations. With the simulation of magnitude and phase change of inputs using vector synthesis diagram, the trends of synthesized output vector are obtained. As a result, we suggested sensitivity analysis of vector synthesis as a technique of prediction and control for noise in a vehicle compartment.

  • PDF

Improvement of WRF forecast meteorological data by Model Output Statistics using linear, polynomial and scaling regression methods

  • Jabbari, Aida;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2019.05a
    • /
    • pp.147-147
    • /
    • 2019
  • The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models determine the future state of the weather by forcing current weather conditions into the atmospheric models. The NWP models approximate mathematically the physical dynamics by nonlinear differential equations; however these approximations include uncertainties. The errors of the NWP estimations can be related to the initial and boundary conditions and model parameterization. Development in the meteorological forecast models did not solve the issues related to the inevitable biases. In spite of the efforts to incorporate all sources of uncertainty into the forecast, and regardless of the methodologies applied to generate the forecast ensembles, they are still subject to errors and systematic biases. The statistical post-processing increases the accuracy of the forecast data by decreasing the errors. Error prediction of the NWP models which is updating the NWP model outputs or model output statistics is one of the ways to improve the model forecast. The regression methods (including linear, polynomial and scaling regression) are applied to the present study to improve the real time forecast skill. Such post-processing consists of two main steps. Firstly, regression is built between forecast and measurement, available during a certain training period, and secondly, the regression is applied to new forecasts. In this study, the WRF real-time forecast data, in comparison with the observed data, had systematic biases; the errors related to the NWP model forecasts were reflected in the underestimation of the meteorological data forecast by the WRF model. The promising results will indicate that the post-processing techniques applied in this study improved the meteorological forecast data provided by WRF model. A comparison between various bias correction methods will show the strength and weakness of the each methods.

  • PDF

Performance Prediction of 3 MWth Chemical Looping Combustion System with Change of Operating Variables (3 MWth 급 매체순환연소 시스템의 운전변수 변화에 따른 성능 예측)

  • RYU, HO-JUNG;NAM, HYUNGSEOK;HWANG, BYUNG WOOK;KIM, HANA;WON, YOOSEOB;KIM, DAEWOOK;KIM, DONG-WON;LEE, GYU-HWA;CHOUN, MYOUNGHOON;BAEK, JEOM-IN
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
    • /
    • v.33 no.4
    • /
    • pp.419-429
    • /
    • 2022
  • Effects of operating variables on temperature profile and performance of 3 MWth chemical looping combustion system were estimated by mass and energy balance analysis based on configuration and dimension of the system determined by design tool. Air reactor gas velocity, fuel reactor gas velocity, solid circulation rate, and solid input percentage to fluidized bed heat exchanger were considered as representative operating variables. Overall heat output and oxygen concentration in the exhaust gas from the air reactor increased but temperature difference decreased as air reactor gas velocity increased. Overall heat output, required solid circulation rate, and temperature difference increased as fuel reactor gas velocity increased. However, overall heat output and temperature difference decreased as solid circulation rate increased. Temperature difference decreased as solid circulation rate through the fluidized bed heat exchanger increased. Effect of each variables on temperature profile and performance can be determined and these results will be helpful to determine operating range of each variable.

What are the benefits and challenges of multi-purpose dam operation modeling via deep learning : A case study of Seomjin River

  • Eun Mi Lee;Jong Hun Kam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2023.05a
    • /
    • pp.246-246
    • /
    • 2023
  • Multi-purpose dams are operated accounting for both physical and socioeconomic factors. This study aims to evaluate the utility of a deep learning algorithm-based model for three multi-purpose dam operation (Seomjin River dam, Juam dam, and Juam Control dam) in Seomjin River. In this study, the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) algorithm is applied to predict hourly water level of the dam reservoirs over 2002-2021. The hyper-parameters are optimized by the Bayesian optimization algorithm to enhance the prediction skill of the GRU model. The GRU models are set by the following cases: single dam input - single dam output (S-S), multi-dam input - single dam output (M-S), and multi-dam input - multi-dam output (M-M). Results show that the S-S cases with the local dam information have the highest accuracy above 0.8 of NSE. Results from the M-S and M-M model cases confirm that upstream dam information can bring important information for downstream dam operation prediction. The S-S models are simulated with altered outflows (-40% to +40%) to generate the simulated water level of the dam reservoir as alternative dam operational scenarios. The alternative S-S model simulations show physically inconsistent results, indicating that our deep learning algorithm-based model is not explainable for multi-purpose dam operation patterns. To better understand this limitation, we further analyze the relationship between observed water level and outflow of each dam. Results show that complexity in outflow-water level relationship causes the limited predictability of the GRU algorithm-based model. This study highlights the importance of socioeconomic factors from hidden multi-purpose dam operation processes on not only physical processes-based modeling but also aritificial intelligence modeling.

  • PDF

A Three-dimensional Numerical Weather Model using Power Output Predict of Distributed Power Source (3차원 기상 수치 모델을 이용한 분산형 전원의 출력 예)

  • Jeong, Yoon-Su;Kim, Yong-Tae;Park, Gil-Cheol
    • Journal of Convergence Society for SMB
    • /
    • v.6 no.4
    • /
    • pp.93-98
    • /
    • 2016
  • Recently, the project related to the smart grid are being actively studied around the developed world. In particular, the long-term stabilization measures distributed power supply problem has been highlighted. In this paper, we propose a three-dimensional numerical weather prediction models to compare the error rate information which combined with the physical models and statistical models to predict the output of distributed power. Proposed model can predict the system for a stable power grid-can improve the prediction information of the distributed power. In performance evaluation, proposed model was a generation forecasting accuracy improved by 4.6%, temperature compensated prediction accuracy was improved by 3.5%. Finally, the solar radiation correction accuracy is improved by 1.1%.

Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Service Life using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 활용한 일반국도 아스팔트포장의 공용수명 예측)

  • Choi, Seunghyun;Do, Myungsik
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.57-65
    • /
    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : The study aims to predict the service life of national highway asphalt pavements through deep learning methods by using maintenance history data of the National Highway Pavement Management System. METHODS : For the configuration of a deep learning network, this study used Tensorflow 1.5, an open source program which has excellent usability among deep learning frameworks. For the analysis, nine variables of cumulative annual average daily traffic, cumulative equivalent single axle loads, maintenance layer, surface, base, subbase, anti-frost layer, structural number of pavement, and region were selected as input data, while service life was chosen to construct the input layer and output layers as output data. Additionally, for scenario analysis, in this study, a model was formed with four different numbers of 1, 2, 4, and 8 hidden layers and a simulation analysis was performed according to the applicability of the over fitting resolution algorithm. RESULTS : The results of the analysis have shown that regardless of the number of hidden layers, when an over fitting resolution algorithm, such as dropout, is applied, the prediction capability is improved as the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of the test data increases. Furthermore, the result of the sensitivity analysis of the applicability of region variables demonstrates that estimating service life requires sufficient consideration of regional characteristics as $R^2$ had a maximum of between 0.73 and 0.84, when regional variables where taken into consideration. CONCLUSIONS : As a result, this study proposes that it is possible to precisely predict the service life of national highway pavement sections with the consideration of traffic, pavement thickness, and regional factors and concludes that the use of the prediction of service life is fundamental data in decision making within pavement management systems.

Power peaking factor prediction using ANFIS method

  • Ali, Nur Syazwani Mohd;Hamzah, Khaidzir;Idris, Faridah;Basri, Nor Afifah;Sarkawi, Muhammad Syahir;Sazali, Muhammad Arif;Rabir, Hairie;Minhat, Mohamad Sabri;Zainal, Jasman
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.54 no.2
    • /
    • pp.608-616
    • /
    • 2022
  • Power peaking factors (PPF) is an important parameter for safe and efficient reactor operation. There are several methods to calculate the PPF at TRIGA research reactors such as MCNP and TRIGLAV codes. However, these methods are time-consuming and required high specifications of a computer system. To overcome these limitations, artificial intelligence was introduced for parameter prediction. Previous studies applied the neural network method to predict the PPF, but the publications using the ANFIS method are not well developed yet. In this paper, the prediction of PPF using the ANFIS was conducted. Two input variables, control rod position, and neutron flux were collected while the PPF was calculated using TRIGLAV code as the data output. These input-output datasets were used for ANFIS model generation, training, and testing. In this study, four ANFIS model with two types of input space partitioning methods shows good predictive performances with R2 values in the range of 96%-97%, reveals the strong relationship between the predicted and actual PPF values. The RMSE calculated also near zero. From this statistical analysis, it is proven that the ANFIS could predict the PPF accurately and can be used as an alternative method to develop a real-time monitoring system at TRIGA research reactors.

A study on the performance improvement of the quality prediction neural network of injection molded products reflecting the process conditions and quality characteristics of molded products by process step based on multi-tasking learning structure (다중 작업 학습 구조 기반 공정단계별 공정조건 및 성형품의 품질 특성을 반영한 사출성형품 품질 예측 신경망의 성능 개선에 대한 연구)

  • Hyo-Eun Lee;Jun-Han Lee;Jong-Sun Kim;Gu-Young Cho
    • Design & Manufacturing
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.72-78
    • /
    • 2023
  • Injection molding is a process widely used in various industries because of its high production speed and ease of mass production during the plastic manufacturing process, and the product is molded by injecting molten plastic into the mold at high speed and pressure. Since process conditions such as resin and mold temperature mutually affect the process and the quality of the molded product, it is difficult to accurately predict quality through mathematical or statistical methods. Recently, studies to predict the quality of injection molded products by applying artificial neural networks, which are known to be very useful for analyzing nonlinear types of problems, are actively underway. In this study, structural optimization of neural networks was conducted by applying multi-task learning techniques according to the characteristics of the input and output parameters of the artificial neural network. A structure reflecting the characteristics of each process step was applied to the input parameters, and a structure reflecting the quality characteristics of the injection molded part was applied to the output parameters using multi-tasking learning. Building an artificial neural network to predict the three qualities (mass, diameter, height) of injection-molded product under six process conditions (melt temperature, mold temperature, injection speed, packing pressure, pacing time, cooling time) and comparing its performance with the existing neural network, we observed enhancements in prediction accuracy for mass, diameter, and height by approximately 69.38%, 24.87%, and 39.87%, respectively.

Chaotic Time Series Prediction using Parallel-Structure Fuzzy Systems (병렬구조 퍼지스스템을 이용한 카오스 시계열 데이터 예측)

  • 공성곤
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.10 no.2
    • /
    • pp.113-121
    • /
    • 2000
  • This paper presents a parallel-structure fuzzy system(PSFS) for prediction of time series data. The PSFS consists of a multiple number of fuzzy systems connected in parallel. Each component fuzzy system in the PSFS predicts the same future data independently based on its past time series data with different embedding dimension and time delay. The component fuzzy systems are characterized by multiple-input singleoutput( MIS0) Sugeno-type fuzzy rules modeled by clustering input-output product space data. The optimal embedding dimension for each component fuzzy system is chosen to have superior prediction performance for a given value of time delay. The PSFS determines the final prediction result by averaging the outputs of all the component fuzzy systems excluding the predicted data with the minimum and the maximum values in order to reduce error accumulation effect.

  • PDF

Using Neural Networks to Predict the Sense of Touch of Polyurethane Coated Fabrics (신경망이론은 이용한 폴리우레탄 코팅포 촉감의 예측)

  • 이정순;신혜원
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.152-159
    • /
    • 2002
  • Neural networks are used to predict the sense of touch of polyurethane coated fabrics. In this study, we used the multi layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks in Neural Connection. The learning algorithm for neural networks is back-propagation algorithm. We used 29 polyurethane coated fabrics to train the neural networks and 4 samples to test the neural networks. Input variables are 17 mechanical properties measured with KES-FB system, and output variable is the sense of touch of polyurethane coated fabrics. The influence of MLF function, the number of hidden layers, and the number of hidden nodes on the prediction accuracy is investigated. The results were as follows: MLP function, the number of hidden layer and the number of hidden nodes have some influence on the prediction accuracy. In this work, tangent function, the architecture of the double hidden layers and the 24-12-hidden nodes has the best prediction accuracy with the lowest RMS error. Using the neural networks to predict the sense of touch of polyurethane coated fabrics has hotter prediction accuracy than regression approach used in our previous study.