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Optimization of Support Vector Machines for Financial Forecasting (재무예측을 위한 Support Vector Machine의 최적화)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.241-254
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    • 2011
  • Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

A study of conception of pyo(標).bon(本).joong(中) in the part of woongihak(運氣學) in negeong(內徑) (내경(內徑) 운기편(運氣篇)의 표(標).본(本).중(中) 개념에 대한 연구(硏究))

  • Baik, You Sang;Park, Chan-Guk
    • Journal of Korean Medical classics
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.114-134
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    • 1998
  • The conception of pyo(標) bon(本) joong(中) in the part of woongihak(運氣學) of negeong(內徑) one of the important thing that decides the relation between six gi(六氣) and samyum and samyang(三陰三陽) or between each other's of samyum and samyang itself, it says that the relation of Pyo-rce(表裏). So this conception from the ancient times have been used to explain the theory of meridian(經絡) and organs(五臟六腑) and in other important field of oriental medicine - Sanghannon(傷寒論), it became basis of explanation of pcthoiogical principles in the system of six kyung(六徑). At first, the subject or this study is limited to the rament of $\ll$Somun(素問)$\gg$ in order to find the accurate and original meanings of pyo(標) bon(本) joong(中). And the meanings are studied by the way of expanding it's meaning with basic conceptions of woongihak(運氣學) and astronomy included in negeong(內徑). In this study, the results are summarized as the followings. 1. The contents of - the 68th chapter of negeong(內徑), concerning pyo(標) and joong(中) come under chogi(初氣) and joonggi(中氣) of the same chapter, after consideration of astronomical knowledge. And they become active during the period that last about 30days, a haft of one step(一步) of kaekgi(客氣). 2. Bon(本) as a kind of six gi(六氣) that is revealed from internal principle of something, that is to say Ohhaeng(五行), comes mainly under the kaekgi(客氣) of woongihak(運氣學) with the meaning of 'sign' is thai the specific properties of six gi(六氣) are revealed to our sight, so we can feel that through the change of nature, Joong(中) is the other property hidden in the inside of six gi(六氣), that is a portion of original nature(本性) like the bon(本). 3. The relation of pyo(標) and bon(本) is like that bctween the principle hidden inside in all things(理) and it's expression into the real world(氣) also similar to thai of yumyang(陰陽) and ohhaeng(五行). Therefore bon(本), though it means one of the six gi(六氣), hale the property of ohhaeng(五行) and pyo(標) is revealed, with an appearance of samyum-samyang(三陰三陰). 4. pyo(標) and joong(中) are also the both sides of yum(陰) and yang(陰) that revealed under the change of yumyang-ohhaengl(陰陽五行) in the nature. For example, if the one is yang(陰), the other is yum(陰). In the process that the change of all things is revealed out, first the property of pyo(標) appears strongly and then that of joong(中) appears comparatively weakly. But, in spite of the inhibitive relation of yumyang(陰陽), pyo(標) and joong(中) promote each other. 5. Under the course of change. It happens according to the bon(本), the property of ohhaeng(五行) in the case of soyang(少陽) and taeyum(太陰), because the effect of moisture(濕) and fire(火) that makes hyung(形) and gi(氣) is very strong in the universe. In the case of taeyang(太陽) and soyum(少陰), it happens according to the bon(本) and pyo(標) because they hare the polarity of water and fire(火水), at the same time, are not separated each other. In the case of yangmeong(陽明) and gualyum(厥陰), the change appears only according to the joong(中), but not strongly because the phase of yangmeong(陽明) and gualyum(厥陰) is a lull phase processing to the next one.

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Effects of Artistic and Technological Context on Physics Problem Solving for High School Students (예술적 상황과 기술적 상황이 고등학생들의 물리 문제해결에 미치는 효과)

  • Lee, Sua;Park, Yunebae
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.985-995
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    • 2015
  • This study examines the effects of the introduction of artistic and technological factors on science problems for the activation of creative and integrated thinking. We developed problems consisting of STA(problems that introduced technological and artistic factors on the College Scholastic Ability Test) and TA(problems that introduced artistic factors in a technological context). Subjects of the study included 60 high school senior students in Daegu. Their problem solving processes for STA were examined. Four students were interviewed using the retrospective interview method. Also, after finishing TA, the problem solving processes of four students were examined. The results of the study are as follows. First, students selected scientific context more than artistic and technological contexts. It was found that students preferred short length problem in order to solve problems in a short time. Second, students were more interested in artistic and technological contexts of STA than scientific context, but felt that they were more difficult. Moreover, students were more interested about the context of TA than scientific context. Third, irrespective of the given contexts in STA, students have a tendency to solve problems through relatively brief ways by using core scientific knowledge. This can seem to mean that there is a possibility to stereotype the problem solving process through repeated learning. Logical thinking and elaboration were observed, but creativity was not conspicuous. In addition, integrated thinking was not observed in all contexts of STA. Fourth, science related problems of TA showed similar results. However, in problems related to everyday life, students made original descriptions that they based on their daily lives. Particularly, in creative design, original ideas and integrated thinking were observed.

A Study on the Equity of the Charges Established to be Imposed on Damaging Activities of Natural Resources -A Comparative Study of Ecosystem Conservation Cooperation Charge and Replacement Charge for Forest Resources Creation- (자연환경 훼손에 관한 부담금의 형평성 제고방안 -생태계보전협력금과 대체산림자원조성비의 비교를 중심으로-)

  • Bang, Sang-Weon;Yoon, Ick-June
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.25-61
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    • 2009
  • These days, environmental policies have changed from being command and control systems toward economic incentive systems, with various incentives having been established by OECD countries. In Korea, many environmental charges have been established in order to diminish activities which damage natural resources. Among them, the Ecosystem Conservation Cooperation Charge and the Replacement Charge for Forest Resources Creation are considered to be representative environmental charges. These charges, along with a few others, were designed to encourage efforts to protect natural resources. The charges include a number of different features, utilize varying methods, and altered ranges of jurisdiction. However, the charges may pose serious inequity problems in terms of their estimated values and their conditions of reduction and exemption. For instance, although the Ecosystem Conservation Cooperation Charge is a primary charge applied to natural resource damage, the charge does not fully secure its original objectives due to its low levy and limited range of provisions. Moreover, the Replacement Charge for Forest Resources Creation has been criticized because of similar reduction and exemption provisions. Therefore, this study analyzes the inequity problems associated with the charges and proposes solutions. First of all, the Ecosystem Conservation Cooperation Charge should be redesigned in such a way that it reflects the substantial value of natural resource damage through either abrogate or increased maximum limits of the charge. With regard to the Replacement Charge for Forest Resources Creation, the cases and ranges of reduction and exemption provisions should be narrowed. Finally, the charges collected should be expended in conformity with their original objectives, and their expenditure should be restricted to either restoration activities or activities directly related to compensation and mitigation of damaged natural resources.

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Feeding Behavior of Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) and Response on Feeding Stimulants of Some Plants (식물에 대한 꽃매미의 섭식행동과 섭식자극)

  • Lee, Jeong-Eun;Moon, Sang-Rae;Ahn, Hee-Geun;Cho, Sun-Ran;Yang, Jeong-Oh;Yoon, Chang-Mann;Kim, Gil-Hah
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.467-477
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    • 2009
  • Host preference was tested on the 7 species plants against ggot-mae-mi, Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae). This insect highly preferred Ailanthus altissima and Vitis vinifera however, didn't choose the other plants preferentially. Both nymphs and adults lived longest in A. altissima and V. vinifera but lived in short and low ecdysis rate against other plants and 3 species fruits. By analyzing the phloem-feeding behavior using EPG, L. delicatula was showed the short time in non-probing phase and it also exhibit the longest feeding time in A. altissima and V. vinifera, but other plants did not feed the phloem at all. In sugar contents analysis, A. altissima existed high sucrose proportion and followed by fructose>glucose, V. vinifera was analyzed by an order of glucose> fructose>maltose>sucrose>rhamnose, Malus pumila was as glucose> fructose, Pyrus calleryana was as glucose>unkown>fructose, Hibiscus syriacus was as sucrose>glucose. Nymphs and adults of L. delicatula lived longest in 5% sucrose solution, and next is in 5% fructose solution. However, they lived short in other sugar solutions. L. delicatula nymph and adult according to the combination of sugar proportion found in original plants lived longer in sugar combination solution of A. altissima and those of V. vinifera was next. Analyzed original sugar proportion from M. pumila, P. calleryana, H. syriacus respectively, L. delicatula lived short period comparing to the A. altissima, V. vinifera. This result was judged that sugar contents affected on choosing the host plants.

Physioanatomical studies on mechanism in the process of becoming non-spinning silkworm(Bombyx mori) (토사불능잠의 출현기구에 관한 생리해부학적 연구)

  • 윤종관
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.8
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 1968
  • In order to achieve efficiency of laying eggs of silkworms, it is very important to eliminate noncocooning silkworms. This study is written on the basis of observation and analysis of mechanism of silkworms physiologically and anatomically. It is hoped that given herein will contribute to the effecting elimination work. Outline of the study summarize as follows: 1. It is observed through microscope that the silkworms which are seen normal state in the silk gland but no ability of cocoon making have polyhedrosis in the nerve, trachea and muscle near the tissue of the spinneret. 2. Relatively high proportion of non-cocooning silkworms are caused by the grasserie of the silkworms. 3. As a result of inoculation with purulent discharges against silkworms from first fooding through 8th day of 5th instar, number of cocooning silkworms were increased when inoculation are applied at laterer day of the instar. In the case of non-cocooning silkworms, meanwhile, resulted not big varriation when it is apllied in the early and middle of the period, but number of non-cocooning silkworm was reduced when the inoculation are given at laterer of the instar. Number of death during rearing and mounting are increased when earliest application of inoculation are carried out. 4. Symptom of grasserie was appeared more or less three days after application of the inoculation. Some silkworms which were inoculated just before mounting has ability of cocooning making even taken grasserie, in this case the silkworm can make thin cocoon. since the silkworm fall sick during cocoon making and unable of spinning soon. when the worm was affected by grasserie slightly, it was observed that the silkworm can spinning. It is supposed to be the light paralysis of spinneret is not very much influenced to spinning. 5. As a result of observation of original stock and hybrid including other 44 kinds of silkworm, many non-cocooning silkworms were found in the original stock especially originated from japanese than in hybrid. 6. A number of undulations are found in the middle division of the silk gland of non-cocooning silkworms. 7. According to the observation of the sizes of the body and digestive organs, normal natured silkworms and non-cocooning silkworms are more or less same in length, but the width, circumference of bodies and digestive organs were more larger in the later. If silkworm which was in the period of active eating of 5th instar was given shock of dropping to the floor, the silkworm receives little more shock when hit to side of the body than to head, and concrete floor than ondol and wooden floor.

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The Mediating Role of Perceived Risk in the Relationships Between Enduring Product Involvement and Trust Expectation (지속적 제품관여도와 소비자 요구신뢰수준 간의 영향관계: 인지된 위험의 매개 역할에 대한 실증분석을 중심으로)

  • Hong, Ilyoo B.;Kim, Taeha;Cha, Hoon S.
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2013
  • When a consumer needs a product or service and multiple sellers are available online, the process of selecting a seller to buy online from is complex since the process involves many behavioral dimensions that have to be taken into account. As a part of this selection process, consumers may set minimum trust expectation that can be used to screen out less trustworthy sellers. In the previous research, the level of consumers' trust expectation has been anchored on two important factors: product involvement and perceived risk. Product involvement refers to the extent to which a consumer perceives a specific product important. Thus, the higher product involvement may result in the higher trust expectation in sellers. On the other hand, other related studies found that when consumers perceived a higher level of risk (e.g., credit card fraud risk), they set higher trust expectation as well. While abundant research exists addressing the relationship between product involvement and perceived risk, little attention has been paid to the integrative view of the link between the two constructs and their impacts on the trust expectation. The present paper is a step toward filling this research gap. The purpose of this paper is to understand the process by which a consumer chooses an online merchant by examining the relationships among product involvement, perceived risk, trust expectation, and intention to buy from an e-tailer. We specifically focus on the mediating role of perceived risk in the relationships between enduring product involvement and the trust expectation. That is, we question whether product involvement affects the trust expectation directly without mediation or indirectly mediated by perceived risk. The research model with four hypotheses was initially tested using data gathered from 635 respondents through an online survey method. The structural equation modeling technique with partial least square was used to validate the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that three out of the four hypotheses formulated were supported. First, we found that the intention to buy from a digital storefront is positively and significantly influenced by the trust expectation, providing support for H4 (trust expectation ${\rightarrow}$ purchase intention). Second, perceived risk was found to be a strong predictor of trust expectation, supporting H2 as well (perceived risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust expectation). Third, we did not find any evidence of direct influence of product involvement, which caused H3 to be rejected (product involvement ${\rightarrow}$ trust expectation). Finally, we found significant positive relationship between product involvement and perceived risk (H1: product involvement ${\rightarrow}$ perceived risk), which suggests that the possibility of complete mediation of perceived risk in the relationship between enduring product involvement and the trust expectation. As a result, we conducted an additional test for the mediation effect by comparing the original model with the revised model without the mediator variable of perceived risk. Indeed, we found that there exists a strong influence of product involvement on the trust expectation (by intentionally eliminating the variable of perceived risk) that was suppressed (i.e., mediated) by the perceived risk in the original model. The Sobel test statistically confirmed the complete mediation effect. Results of this study offer the following key findings. First, enduring product involvement is positively related to perceived risk, implying that the higher a consumer is enduringly involved with a given product, the greater risk he or she is likely to perceive with regards to the online purchase of the product. Second, perceived risk is positively related to trust expectation. A consumer with great risk perceptions concerning the online purchase is likely to buy from a highly trustworthy online merchant, thereby mitigating potential risks. Finally, product involvement was found to have no direct influence on trust expectation, but the relationship between the two constructs was indirect and mediated by the perceived risk. This is perhaps an important theoretical integration of two separate streams of literature on product involvement and perceived risk. The present research also provides useful implications for practitioners as well as academicians. First, one implication for practicing managers in online retail stores is that they should invest in reducing the perceived risk of consumers in order to lower down the trust expectation and thus increasing the consumer's intention to purchase products or services. Second, an academic implication is that perceived risk mediates the relationship between enduring product involvement and trust expectation. Further research is needed to elaborate the theoretical relationships among the constructs under consideration.

International Legal Status of U.S. Citizens Property Right to Space Resources (미국 국내법령상 우주자원 소유권의 국제법상 의의)

  • Shin, Hong-Kyun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.419-442
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    • 2018
  • Space Treaty Article 2 stipuates non-appropriation by sovereignty, and in any other means. Interpretative controversies has continued as regards the meaning of any other means. It is not clear whether appropriation by private entity is also prohibited or not. Furthermore, the controverse around the binding force of Article 1 has made worse the controversy regarding such appropriation. U.S. Congress has enacted the law regarding the space resouce mining in 2015. Its main purpose is to alleviate legal unstability which U.S, private companies have faced, and it provides some provisions regarding private rights about space resources. Original bill, H.R. 1508 included the property right. Amendment to the bill is to ensure that an "asteroid resource utilization activity" is inter-preted as on a single asteroid and not on any asteroid. The use of the word "in situ" in defining space resources simply means resources in place in outer space; but any such resource within or on an asteroid would need to be "obtained" in order to confer a property right. The use of the word "in situ" in merely defining a space resource in the bill is not equivalent to claiming sovereignty or control over celestial bodies or portions of space. Further, there is clear Congressional direction in the bill that the President is only to encourage space resources exploration and utilization, including lowering barriers to such activity, "consistent with" and "in accordance with" US international obligations. Federal courts are granted original jurisdiction over entities defined in ${\S}$ 51301(4) and in-situ asteroid resources that have been removed from an asteroid by such entities. Federal courts are not granted jurisdiction over outer space, the Moon, other celestial bodies, or the asteroid from which the in-situ natural resource was removed. It is said that the Space Resource Utilization Exploration Act of 2015, talked about the rights of private players to own-kind of a "finders keepers" law.

Analysis of the Characteristics of Bulking Agents Used in Livestock Manure Composting (축산분뇨 퇴비화에 이용되는 수분조절제의 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Tae;Lee, Min-HO;qasim, Waqas;Lee, Yong-Jin;Kim, Won-Joong;Yoon, Yong-Cheol
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzed the characteristics of 6 recyclable bulking agents which can replace sawdust and rice hulls that are commonly used in livestock manure composting. The content of all the hazardous chemicals found in the bulking agents used in this experiment was between 0.0 and 34.1 ppm, which was noticeably lesser than the maximum content levels of hazardous substances 5.0~900.0 ppm prescribed by the Rural Development Administration(RDA), which means that the bulking agents would be able to replace sawdusts and rice husks. The water content of the bulking agents ranged from a minimum of 12.4% to a maximum of 16.6% in the original state, which was much less than 60%, the optimal moisture content. These results indicate that they would be able to function fully as bulking agents. Their water absorption rate was in the range of minimum 31.9% ~ maximum 600.0%, which showed huge differences among the types of bulking agents. The most appropriate bulking agent in terms of water absorption rate was wood pellets. It was the highest in the wood briquette manufactured by A, which was followed by C and B in the order. The shear strength of the 5 types of bulking agents in the original state was 271.7 N on an average, the highest figure of all, except for the oak briquette whose shear strength could not be measured and the wood pellets in the absorption state. The shear strength in the dry and absorption states then followed, and were 78.0 N and 27.7 N on an average, respectively. The wood briquette of A recorded considerably lower shear strength than that of B and C. Overall, shear strength tended to increase according to lower water absorption rates. Since pine wood chips and oak cuts have relatively greater shear strength even in the absorbing state than the other materials, they will be able to endure some power in the case of stirring with pig droppings.

Dramatic and Musical Composition in the Musical Comedy Les Misérables (뮤지컬 「레미제라블」 의 극적, 음악적 구성 방식)

  • Cho, Man-Soo
    • Cross-Cultural Studies
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    • v.44
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    • pp.315-342
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    • 2016
  • There exists a general misunderstanding of the Musical as being both a dramatic genre and a musical genre. This misunderstanding lies in the fact that music fills the role of the drama. In other words, there exist a series of narrative episodes that help the development of the drama and music generates the ambience that corresponds to each episode. In this case, music is subordinated to the drama and thus becomes secondary. However, this paper seeks to show that in the Musical, musical composition is so strongly linked to the development of the drama that it is through the musical development that the drama unfolds. This paper seeks to explore this view through one of the most successful musicals of our time, Les $Mis{\acute{e}}rables$. A musical adapted from a novel is not the retrenchment of a series of episodes from the original novel. The process of dramatizing the novel compels the musical creators to observe what to draw out as a dramatic action. The interesting points of a musical consist of how the musical creator has reflected his understanding of the fiction through the composition of the music. This is why this paper has created a table analyzing the forty musical compositions in Les $Mis{\acute{e}}rables$. This table is meant to visualize the musical motifs employed in this play in order to explain the relationship between the musical composition and the development of the drama. The theme of Les $Mis{\acute{e}}rables$ lies in the transformation of Jean Valjean. His change includes the process of transformation from a thief to finding Jesus and his denial of being a sinner to his confessions of sinning. This paper explores the transformation of the dramatic action of Jean Valjean, which is symbolized by such themes as Misery, Love and Name established in musical form. The dramatic conflict between Jean Valjean and Javert as well as between Jean Valjean and $Th{\acute{e}}nardier$ is also explored through the composition of music. The success of Les $Mis{\acute{e}}rables$ lies in its successful constitution of music that embodies the in depth interpretation of the original play.