• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.111-121
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• 2014

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows New & Renewable Energy projects to make additional income by selling CER's, which represent the amount of Green House Gases(GHG) that is reduced in the project. However, forward contracts used to hedge fluctuating market prices does not allow projects to sell CER's at a premium. As an alternate approach to maximize CER revenue, CER's are modeled as a 'real option', in which CER's are sold only above the desired sales price. Using the Binomial Option Pricing model, the resultant lattices are used to determine whether to sell, defer or abandon the option at individual nodes. Overlaying Pascal's Triangle on the lattices also enabled the calculation of the annual probabilities for deferring CER sales without incurring downside losses. Application to an actual Landfill Gas project showed increased overall NPV, and that CER sales could be deferred at a maximum of 2 years. The proposed framework allows transparency in the analysis and provides valuable and strategical information when making investment decisions related to CER sales of CDM projects.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.85-100
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• 2023

The stochastic volatility (SV) model is one of the main methods of modeling time-varying volatility. In particular, SV model is actively used in estimation and prediction of financial market volatility and option pricing. This paper attempts to model the time-varying volatility of the bitcoin market price using SV model. Hidden Markov model (HMM) is combined with the SV model to capture characteristics of regime switching of the market. The HMM is useful for recognizing patterns of time series to divide the regime of market volatility. This study estimated the volatility of bitcoin by using data from Upbit, a cryptocurrency trading site, and analyzed it by dividing the volatility regime of the market to improve the performance of the SV model. The MCMC technique is used to estimate the parameters of the SV model, and the performance of the model is verified through evaluation criteria such as MAPE and MSE.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.235-257
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• 2012

Recently the role of ports has been changed to satisfy flexibly needs of demands in global economy. A new concept for ports is not just a place for international trade but an important nodal point in logistics chain. The changing environment like this trend creates a high degree of uncertainty and leaves port managers confused with the question how to respond effectively to dynamic market. The latest studies provide that the port must have a good hinterland to achieve competitive advantages in a logistics chain. Korean Government announced "The Master Development Plan for Port Logistics Parks in Korea" in 2006. This contains the plan of hinterland construction of Busan New Port to achieve the status of logistics hub in Asian market. Previous studies rely solely on traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) analysis for investment of hinterland. However DCF method does not include irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing for investment project. This thesis introduces a ROPM(real options pricing model) which overcomes the limitations of traditional valuation methods. The option valuations in this study utilize the Black-Scholes model, the binomial model and the MonteCarlo simulation to value investment opportunity of a port hinterland. In this thesis, an attempt is made to modify the NPV criterion by incorporating the real options approach, and its application is demonstrated in a hinterland construction investment plan. This research has conducted an empirical analysis by calculating economic value of the investment for a hinterland of Busan New Port.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.261-304
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• 2013

This article is aiming intensively to analyze the polarizing tendency of labour market and social integration. The polarization of labour market is being regarded as one of the hottest issues not less important than those problems of economic growth, employment, income distribution and national security etc. in the national policy. In this article, we will first follow up the important phenomena of labour market polarization and the background as well as its consequence. Especially, it asks if the present labour policy in the new government which is now being concentrated on the improvement of employment rate(from the present 63% to the 70% in the future) could deserve to diminish the polarization of labour market in korea. At one side, this article makes the special attention on the diversifying tendency of labour market and the various phenomena of fragmentation and segmentation in the labour market according to the forms and types of employment and according to the employee's status as much as the company's size. At the other side, it emphasizes that to overcome the polarization of labour market should require the wide reform from the legal measure to the improvement of the wage system, and the qualification system and the social investment as well as the human resource development. Furthermore, this article stresses the importance of integrative approach between the active market policy and the social policy instead of choosing each policy option, seperatively.

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.491-502
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• 2012

The world's food production systems are becoming an area of great concern for both human and ecological health. Research has identified that one of the greatest threats to sustainability is conventional industrial agricultural systems and the high energy and material cost they require to function. The organic food movement is contributing as promising alternative to the current dominant model. Over the last 50 years it has developed into the most visible brand for a healthier and more environmentally sustainable food system. However, to achieve its full potential there are still a number of hurdles which must be overcome to make organic products a more viable and appealing option for consumers. This paper provides an overview of key research that has been conducted on why consumers are buying organic products, what they are buying and what is preventing them from purchasing more. It concludes that the key challenge is for the organic food movement to convince existing consumers of the superior 'value' of its products. In addition there are a number of methodological issues associated with analysing the market for organic products as well as issues of limited distribution, intermittent availability and high prices that are currently preventing increases in sales. Recognition and management of these barriers could contribute to more effective targeted research into consumer food purchasing motivations and subsequently the development of more sophisticated marketing strategies that assist in maintaining integrity with consumers and fending off challenges from conventional as well as other complementary food systems such as local food movement. And finally to achieve these market growth strategies the organic food movement will need to cope with its diverse constituency - ranging from global corporates through to local production and consumption - and provide attractive opportunities to individuals and business at all stages in supply chain whilst retaining credibility with government to ensure ongoing policy support.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.25-40
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• 2010

Accurate forecasting of volatility is of considerable interest in financial volatility research, particularly in regard to portfolio allocation, option pricing and risk management because volatility is equal to market risk. So, we attempted to delineate a model with good ability to forecast and identified stylized features of volatility, with a focus on volatility persistence or long memory in the Australian futures market. In this context, we assessed the long-memory property in the volatility of index futures contracts using three conditional volatility models, namely the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models. We found that the FIGARCH model better captures the long-memory property than do the GARCH and IGARCH models. Additionally, we found that the FIGARCH model provides superior performance in one-day-ahead volatility forecasts. As discussed in this paper, the FIGARCH model should prove a useful technique in forecasting the long-memory volatility in the Australian index futures market.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.39-50
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• 2014

After the global financial crisis, domestic construction industry has gone through a rapid recession. This resulted in gradual market shift towards architectural remodeling. Architectural remodeling not only improves residential environment but it has many advantages such as increase of each unit's exclusive area, free space within the horizontal or extension of an annex building, and increase number of household through splitting the household of bigger pyeong, etc. However, in case of the Korean market for apartment remodeling, due to various regulations and problem with business promotion procedures, majority of business is slow despite the figure that remodeling volume is not that small. Also, feasibility study which decides to push ahead public house remodeling business will have a flaw using net present value's law; it has a flaw of not considering properties of each phase of remodeling business and future's uncertainty. Hence, this research will improve the problem of traditional value assessment method of net present value's law. It will also consider one of the real options such as binomial model in order to supplement NPV which is used in current feasibility study. This research was based on real successful cases of public house remodeling and it was possible for feasibility study which was more realistic and valid. This research provided foundation for development of Korean public house remodeling market. There is high anticipation of increasing the validity by improving the problems of current feasibility study and economic efficiency assessment.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.209-237
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• 2006

Since previous default forecasting models for the firms evaluate the probability of default based upon the accounting data from book values, they cannot reflect the changes in markets sensitively and they seem to lack theoretical background. The market-information based models, however, not only make use of market data for the default prediction, but also have strong theoretical background like Black-Scholes (1973) option theory. So, many firms recently use such market based model as KMV to forecast their default probabilities and to manage their credit risks. Korean firms also widely use the KMV model in which default point is defined by liquid debt plus 50% of fixed debt. Since the debt structures between Korean and American firms are significantly different, Korean firms should carefully use KMV model. In this study, we empirically investigate the importance of debt structure. In particular, we find the following facts: First, in Korea, fixed debts are more important than liquid debts in accurate prediction of default. Second, the percentage of fixed debt must be less than 20% when default point is calculated for Korean firms, which is different from the KMV. These facts give Korean firms some valuable implication about default forecasting and management of credit risk.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.55
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• pp.185-208
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• 2012

Before and after the Capital Market Integration Act in 2007 is implemented in South Korea, many of small-and mid sized exporting companies in South Korea has been bankrupted or filed for lawsuit claiming mis-selling(KIKO) by the banks. The basic economic structure of KIKO in Korea are part of a business model based on the use or misuse of exotic derivatives whose results are anything but imaginary. 571 mid sized exporting companies have been damaged about $28 billion. KIKO is a currency option product that sells foreign currencies at higher foreign exchange rate when the rate moves within a certain range, but sells foreign currencies at two or three times lower rate than the market price when the rate exceeds the designated upper limit. KIKO, Therefore, is hard to know whether the non financial firms intended to hedge against further strengthening of their currency or merely to speculate. It is also hard to know how thoroughly they understood the risk-return profile of these transactions. It is similarly hard to ascertain whether the derivatives dealers offering these transactions were meeting the demands of their clients or taking advantage of them. These exotic derivatives were inappropriate for either hedging or speculating, and no knowledgeable investor would be likely to enter into these contracts intentionally.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.17-27
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• 2018

In 21^st Century business world, services are carried out in multifaceted, competitive and rationality manner that are characterized by evolving many factors, which are often unpredictable. On-the-go banking is a product in financial sector. However, it faces serious pitfalls being it riskiness. Bank customers compete for time-saving options. On contrary, PCBs compete for marginalizing its operating costs for enhancing its revenues. On strategic tactics, PCBs targets city customers in multi-facets including offering incentives for enhanced usages of on-the-go banking. Influencing customer's intention, attitude and behavior in banking, PCBs also offers incentive under market system along with often informational asymmetry. However, it causes exploitation. In most cases customers don't read terms & conditions of services. They don't save contract-copy. These weaknesses cause abuses. Customer faces hidden charges, extra fees, account hacked. Addressing the issue, Voluntary Insurance Option is proposed where PCBs will introduce it as a product of bank-services. Transferring risk away from customer will benefit both PCBs and bank-customers. This product can attract new customers who were on the brink using digital banking but just felt it was too risky. This model can facilitate the parties involved for increasing usage of on-the-go banking-services while customers can maintain optimal utility of usages.