• Title/Summary/Keyword: oil price fluctuation

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Stock prediction using combination of BERT sentiment Analysis and Macro economy index

  • Jang, Euna;Choi, HoeRyeon;Lee, HongChul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2020
  • The stock index is used not only as an economic indicator for a country, but also as an indicator for investment judgment, which is why research into predicting the stock index is ongoing. The task of predicting the stock price index involves technical, basic, and psychological factors, and it is also necessary to consider complex factors for prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the model for predicting the stock price index by selecting and reflecting technical and auxiliary factors that affect the fluctuation of the stock price according to the stock price. Most of the existing studies related to this are forecasting studies that use news information or macroeconomic indicators that create market fluctuations, or reflect only a few combinations of indicators. In this paper, this we propose to present an effective combination of the news information sentiment analysis and various macroeconomic indicators in order to predict the US Dow Jones Index. After Crawling more than 93,000 business news from the New York Times for two years, the sentiment results analyzed using the latest natural language processing techniques BERT and NLTK, along with five macroeconomic indicators, gold prices, oil prices, and five foreign exchange rates affecting the US economy Combination was applied to the prediction algorithm LSTM, which is known to be the most suitable for combining numeric and text information. As a result of experimenting with various combinations, the combination of DJI, NLTK, BERT, OIL, GOLD, and EURUSD in the DJI index prediction yielded the smallest MSE value.

The Inter-correlation Analysis between Oil Prices and Dry Bulk Freight Rates (유가와 벌크선 운임의 상관관계 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Byoung-Churl;Lee, Kee-Hwan;Kim, Myoung-Hee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.289-296
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the inter-correlation between crude oil prices and Dry Bulk Freight rates. Eco-friendly shipping fuels has being actively developed to reduce carbon emission. However, carbon neutrality will take longer than anticipated in terms of the present development process. Because of OVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, crude oil price fluctuation has been exacerbated. So we must examine the impact on Dry Bulk Freight rates the oil prices have had, because oil prices play a major role in shipping fuels. By using the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model with monthly data of crude oil prices (Brent, Dubai and WTI) and Dry Bulk Freight rates (BDI, BCI and (BP I) 2008.10~2022.02, the empirical analysis documents that the oil prices have an impact on Dry bulk Freight rates. From the analysis of the forecast error variance decomposition, WTI has the largest explanatory relationship with the BDI and Dubai ranks seoond, Brent ranks third. In conclusion, WTI and Dubai have the largest impact on the BDI, while there are some differences according to the ship-type.

CFD Analysis on the Performance and Internal Flow of a Micro Cross-Flow Hydro Turbine in the Range of Very Low Specific Speed (극저비속도 영역 마이크로 횡류수차의 성능 및 내부유동 수치해석적 연구)

  • Choi, Young-Do;Son, Sung-Woo
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2012
  • Renewable energy has been interested because of fluctuation of oil price, depletion of fossil fuel resources and environmental impact. Amongst renewable energy resources, hydropower is most reliable and cost effective way. In this study, to develop a new type of micro hydro turbine which can be operated in the range of very low specific speed, a cross-flow hydro turbine with simple structure is proposed. The turbine is designed to be used at the very low specific speed range of hydropower resources, such as very high-head and considerably small-flow rate water resources. CFD analysis on the performance and internal flow characteristics of the turbine is conducted to obtain a practical data for the new design method of the turbine. Results show that optimized arrangement of guide vane angle and inner guide angle can give contribution to the turbine performance improvement.

The characteristic analysis and model of PEM fuel cell for residential application (가정용 고분자 연료전지의 모델과 특성해석)

  • Cho, Y.R.;Kim, N.H.;Han, K.H.;Joo, K.D.;Yun, S.Y.;Baek, S.H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.04a
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    • pp.277-279
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    • 2005
  • The imbalance of energy demand and supply caused by rapid industrialization around the world and the associated environmental issues require and alternative energy source with possible renewable fuels. Political instability and depletion of cruel oils are other factors that cause fluctuation of oil price. Securing a new alternative energy source for the next century became an urgent issue that our nation is confronting with. As a matter of fact, the fuel cell technology can be widely used as next generation energy regardless of regions and climate. Specially, the ability of expansion and quick installation enable one to apply it for distributed power, where the technology is already gaining remarkable attentions for the application. Particularly, leading industrialized nations are focusing on the PEM fuel dell with anticipation that this technology will find their place of applications in the vehicles and homes. In this study, demonstrate the multi physics modeling of a proton exchange membrane(PEM) fuel cell with interdigitated flow field design. The model uses current balances, mass balance(Maxwell-Stefan diffusion for reactant, water and nitrogen gas) and momentum balance(gas flow) to simulate the PEM fuel cell behavior.

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Estimation of AADT Using Multiple Linear Regression in Isolated Area (다중선형 회귀분석을 이용한 고립지역에서의 AADT 추정방안 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-woon;Oh, Ju-sam
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.887-896
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    • 2015
  • This study estimates future AADT using historical AADT and socio-economic factors in isolated area. Multiple linear regression method by socio-economic factors are lower MAPE and higher R-square than using historical AADT. Analysis of socio-economic factors influence AADT in isolated typical areas, varied socio-economic factors influence on AADT. In isolated coastal areas, oil price influence on AADT. AADT forecasting model in isolated area is excellent when analysising $R^2$ and MAPE. It is assume that estimation of AADT in isolated area using multiple linear regression is accurate because of a little passed traffic volume and traffic volume fluctuation.

Impact Analysis of Economic Fluctuation of Saudi Arabia on Korean Overseas Construction Business (사우디아라비아의 경제변동이 한국의 해외건설 수주에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Jeon, Jae-Keun;Lee, Suk-Won;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2016
  • According to the order receipt report over the past 10 years the overseas construction business total trades were 54.05% and 68.09% done by the Middle East and other industrial facilities respectively. In the Middle East based on data collected in 2014 the country with most overseas construction business is Saudi Arabia with 34.10%, and the industrial facility occupies the larger share with 56%. Overseas construction business is suffering from a reduction in work orders in the Middle East because of the recent oil price reduction. At this point of view, it is necessary to consider economy fluctuation for the diversification of construction type and work orders. This study analyzed, focusing in Saudi Arabia how the economical fluctuations of nations of progress can affect overseas construction business' trade orders. The analysis results demonstrated that most construction types depends on GDP, investment fund. Also industrial facility can be substituted with Architecture and civil engineering. This work is expected to be used as a basis for trade order amount maintenance and construction type diversification.

International Trends in Development, Commercialization and Market of Bio-Plastics (국내외 바이오 플라스틱의 연구개발, 제품화 및 시장 동향)

  • You, Young-Sun;Oh, Yu-Sung;Hong, Seung-Hoi;Choi, Sung-Wook
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2015
  • As environmental issues are emerging, bio-plastic suppliers in leading countries have been foreseeing the strong needs for environment-friendly materials such as eco-packing materials due to increased attention and regulation on recycle. To catch up with the demand, various types of bio-plastics based on natural feedstocks were developed and released on a market. These bio-plastic products drew the great attention even in domestic industries. At present, international oil price fluctuation and heavy charge on waste raise the unit cost of production and disposal expense of conventional plastic materials. These conditions make bio-plastic an alternative, because it is not restrained by oil prices and problem in the disposal. It is also expected that bio-plastic will be applied to various types of products including containers, industrial supplies, disposables, and medical supplies. However, the bio-plastic is still in its infancy, thus more research and understanding should be followed to put it to application. Bio-plastic is considered as environment-friendly material with high potential which has the advantages of production and disposal.

Studies of Eri-Silk Cultring in Korea (한국피마잠사개발에 대한 연구)

  • 최병희;김재두;박창준
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.9
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    • pp.49-66
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    • 1969
  • Eri-silkworm is known as a tropical insect where as poly-voltine type in that area. It eats caster oil plant leaves which are cultivated as an every year cultivatable seed oil use in this country, even though it grows for many years in tropical countries. That is why, farmers have freedom for its cultivation in any year if they want. Therefore, eri-silkworm rearing service is flexible for its diet procurment as wish of farmer. The eri-cocoon price or economical fluctuation may be reactable for the rearing work not like as mulberry cocoon. Fortunately, it also eats cynthia tree leaves. Standing from such a easy condition, the authors have studied about this problem since 1963 to develope a culturing method of eri-silkworm rearing in this country and the authors brought out the matters to be produced as an industry scale. Here, the authors summarized their works of the results covering with thirty three work tables. The obtained results are as follows.

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