• Journal of agriculture & life science
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.69-78
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• 2010

Haines index which include the rating of atmosphere instability and dryness indicated the potential of the forest fire danger. In this study, the relationships between forest fire occurrence and Haines index were analyzed. The probability of forest fire occurrence was the highest in April and HI 5, 6 and the dryness of atmosphere was higher than the atmosphere instability. Therefore, It was proved that HI affected on the forest fire occurrence and propagation.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.199-207
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• 2023

Trend Impact Analysis is a prominent hybrid method has been used in future studies with a modified surprise- free forecast. It considers experts' perceptions about how future events may change the surprise-free forecast. It is an advanced forecasting tool used in futures studies for identifying, understanding and analyzing the consequences of unprecedented events on future trends. In this paper, we propose an advanced mechanism to generate more justifiable estimates to the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as a function of time with different degrees of severity using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The key idea of the paper is to enhance the generic process of reasoning with fuzzy logic and neural network by adding the additional step of attributes simulation, as unprecedented events do not occur all of a sudden but rather their occurrence is affected by change in the values of a set of attributes. An ANFIS approach is used to identify the occurrence and severity of an event, depending on the values of its trigger attributes.

• Journal for History of Mathematics
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 2024

In this study, we identified the intellectual triggers for Bayesian inference and what key ideas contributed to its occurrence and discussed the practical implications of introducing Bayesian inference into the school mathematics curriculum by reflecting them. The results of the study show that the need for statistical inference about the parameter itself served as a trigger for the occurrence of Bayesian inference, and the most important idea for the occurrence of that inference was to regard the parameter itself as a probability variable rather than any fixed value. On the other hand, these research results suggest that the meaning of introducing Bayesian inference into the secondary mathematics curriculum is 'statistics education that expands the scope of uncertainty'.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.20-27
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• 2001

After using the filtering method, wave parameters are calculated by the spectral analysis and wave by wave analysis. Extreme environments and higher wave characteristics int he Chujeon Sea are analyzed using the observed wave data. Higher wave has been intensely emphasized as an important environmental force parameter in several recent research works. The aims of this study are to summarize the distribution of extreme environment for wind waves, and to find occurrence probability of higher wave in Chujeon Sea. Ocean wave statistics varying with sea state are found to respond linearly to the spectral peakedness parameter Qp, mean run-length and Ursell number. Although the spreading of the field results is large, it may be concluded that the tendency of wave group formation depends on the spectral peakedness parameter Qp. Extreme wave is estimated to apply various model distribution functions by using the monthly maximum significant wave parameters which can be used to the design and analysis of coastal structures.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.619-620
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• 2011

When we choose a car, must first choose the performance, design, price, reliability, ete. of the car regardless of the probability of occurrence of traffic accidents. This paper proposes the color of car that accident occurs in color from the highest probability to lowest probability. This is talking about the color difference of advancing color and receding color. The color of the accident-prone is many receding color that actually seem to be far more. Advanced color that seem to be closer than the actual color find out that accident is less.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2015.07a
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• pp.179-180
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• 2015

에이전트 기반 마이크로 시뮬레이션에서 많이 사용하는 단순 전이확률(transition probability) 행렬이나 추정된 전이확률함수는 단순화하는 과정에서 정보 손실이 발생하고 복잡한 모델에서 사용할 수 없고 전이확률이 시간에 따라 변화하면 시간 변화를 따르는 별도의 추정이 필요로 한다. 본 연구는 이런 기존 방법의 한계를 해결하기 위하여, 다차원 전이확률표들을 이용해서 이벤트 발생을 결정함으로써 정보 손실을 줄이고 단순 행렬이나 함수로 표현하기 어려운 경우에도 이벤트 발생을 재현하고, 시간 독립적인 전이확률표를 이용해서 이벤트 발생을 결정함으로써 시간 변화를 별도로 추정하지 않고 이벤트 발생을 예측할 수 있는 방법을 제안하는데 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.258-258
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• 2012

In frequency analyses of hydrological data, it is necessary for the interested variables to be homogenous and independent. However, recent evidences have shown that the occurrence of extreme hydro-meteorological events is influenced by large-scale climate variability, and the assumption of homogeneity does not generally hold anymore. Therefore, in order to associate the non-homogenous characteristics of hydro-meteorological variables, we propose the parameter estimation method of probability models using meta-heuristic algorithms, specifically harmony search. All the weather stations in South Korea were employed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approaches. The results showed that the proposed parameter estimation method using harmony search is a comparativealternative for the probability distribution of the non-homogenous hydro-meteorological variables data.

• The Mathematical Education
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.16-28
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• 1966

According to the modernization of mathematics education, new abstract concepts such as the concept of sets are introduced in many fields of it. The purpose of this thesis is to adopt the concept of sets to 'probability' which is included in the curriculum of high school matematics education. The considerations of the preceding chapter III, and their obvious generalizations to more complicated experiments, justify the conclusion that probability theory consists of the study of sets. An event is a set, its opposite event is the complementary set; mutually exclusive events are disjoint sets, and an event consisting of the simultaneous occurrence of two other events is a sets obtained by intersecting two other sets it is clear how this glossary, translating physical terminology into set theoretic terminology, may be continued. Furthermore, the important theorems of probability; Additional theorem, multiplication theorem, their applications and so on, are proved by the technical operations of sets. Thinking of the mathematics education introduced by the concept of sets is very important in future.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.65-85
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• 2024

The tail probability of a function of a multivariate random variable is not easy to estimate by the crude Monte Carlo simulation. When the occurrence of the function value over a threshold is rare, the accurate estimation of the corresponding probability requires a huge number of samples. When the explicit form of the cumulative distribution function of each component of the variable is known, the inverse transform likelihood ratio method is directly applicable scheme to estimate the tail probability efficiently. The method is a type of the importance sampling and its efficiency depends on the selection of the importance sampling distribution. When the cumulative distribution of the multivariate random variable is represented by a copula and its marginal distributions, we develop an iterative algorithm to find the optimal importance sampling distribution, and show the convergence of the algorithm. The performance of the proposed scheme is compared with the crude Monte Carlo simulation numerically.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.467-480
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• 2014

The estimation of wind speed values used in codes and standards is an integral part of the wind load evaluation process. In a number of codes and standards, wind speeds outside of tropical cyclone prone regions are estimated using a single probability distribution developed from observed wind speed data, with no distinction made between the types of causal wind hazard (e.g., thunderstorm). Non-tropical cyclone wind hazards (i.e., thunderstorm, non-thunderstorm) have been shown to possess different probability distributions and estimation of non-tropical cyclone wind speeds based on a single probability distribution has been shown to underestimate wind speeds. Current treatment of non-tropical cyclone wind hazards in worldwide codes and standards is touched upon in this work. Meteorological data is available at a considerable number of United States (U.S.) stations that have information on wind speed as well as the type of causal wind hazard. In this paper, probability distributions are fit to distinct storm types (i.e., thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm) and the results of these distributions are compared to fitting a single probability distribution to all data regardless of storm type (i.e., co-mingled). Distributions fitted to data separated by storm type and co-mingled data will also be compared to a derived (i.e., "mixed") probability distribution considering multiple storm types independently. This paper will analyze two extreme value distributions (e.g., Gumbel, generalized Pareto). It is shown that mixed probability distribution, on average, is a more conservative measure for extreme wind speed estimation. Using a mixed distribution is especially conservative in situations where a given wind speed value for either storm type has a similar probability of occurrence, and/or when a less frequent storm type produces the highest overall wind speeds. U.S. areas prone to multiple non-tropical cyclone wind hazards are identified.