• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.213-221
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• 2022

Defects are the risk factors in the construction process of buildings. They cause damage, delaying the construction duration. They especially cause adverse effects on the top-down construction method. This study analyzed the degree of construction delay induced by each work type, focusing on defects in the top-down method. Then, we derived construction delay induction coefficient from different work types in order by using the severity of construction delay per defect and the occurrence probability of defect; this assessment model measures the impact of defects on construction delay for each work type. Furthermore, by comparing each work type based on the defect frequency and the construction delay induction coefficient, we found work types that need to be administered attentively. We identified that plastering work was easy to overlook, requiring caution in defect management. This study provides an efficient defect management system suitable for the buildings that are built using the top-down construction method.

• 한국GIS학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국GIS학회 2003년도 공동 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.100-100
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• 2003

The purpose of this study is to reveals spatial relationships between landslides and geospatial data set, map the landslide susceptibility using the relationships and verify the landslide susceptibility using the landslide occurrence data in Bosun area in 1998. Landslide locations were detected from aerial photography and field survey and topography, soil, forest, and land use data sets were constructed as a spatial database using GIS. As the landslide occurrence factors, slope, aspect, curvature and type of topography, texture, material, drainage and effective thickness of soil, type, age, diameter and density of wood and land use were used. Is extract the relationship between landslides and geospatial database, Bayesian probability methods, likelihood ratio and weight of evidence, were applied and the ratio and contrast value that is W$\^$＋/- W$\^$-/ were calculated. The landslide susceptibility index was calculated by summation of the likelihood ratio and contrast value and the landslide susceptibility maps were generated using the index. As a result, it is expected that spatial relationships between landslides and geospatial database is helpful to explain the characteristics of landslide and the landslide susceptibility map is used to reduce associated hazards, and to plan land use and construction.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.475-481
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• 2009

교착상태의 발생 주기 및 확률은 교착상태를 다루는 알고리즘 설계 시 많은 영향을 미친다. 그러나 프로세스나 자원의 성격, 자원 요구나 반환 연산 방식, 프로세스 개수 등의 성질이 교착상태 발생에 어떻게 영향을 미치는지 분석하는 게 쉽지 않아 이 분야에 대한 연구가 매우 부족하다. 이 논문은 자원 할당 상태를 (a,b)t로 표현하는 상태 모델을 이용하여 상태의 개수를 획기적으로 감소시켰다. 또한 시스템 분석에 있어서 자원의 오류 발생 비율과 복구 비율이 미치는 영향도 함께 포함할 수 있도록 설계하였다. 그 결과 교착상태의 평균 발생 주기, 요구연산이 보류되거나 교착상태를 유발할 확률, 사이클의 길이가 2인 교착상태가 발생할 확률 등과 같은 각종 수식을 구하였다.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.95-100
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• 2009

캐나다의 산불 위험등급 시스템의 구성요소인 미세연료수분지수는 지상의 미세 연료의 건조 여부의 예측을 통해 산불의 발화위험성을 지시하는 지수로써, 강수량의 감소와 온도의 상승, 풍속의 상승, 그리고 대기 중의 습도 감소로 인한 미세연료의 발화위험성의 상승을 표시하는 지수이다. 본 연구에서는 5년간의 강원도 지역에서의 기상 자료를 분석하고, 이를 이용하여 미세연료수분지수를 산출하여, 그 연중 분포와 적용성을 검토하였다. 분석 결과, 강원도 지역의 기후 조건은 봄철과 가을철 산불 조심강조기간에 아주 적은 강수량과 낮은 습도를 보여주고 있으며, 지난 5년간의 발생한 산불 중 75%가 산불 조심 강조기간에 발생하였으며, 그 중 90%가 봄철 산불조심기간에 집중되어 있었다. 또한, 봄철 산불조심 강조기간을 대상으로 순기 평균 산불연료지수에 대한 로지스틱 분석 결과 약 63%의 판별율을 나타내었다. 하지만, 모형의 정확도 향상을 위한 기상 자료의 보다 정확한 지역간 분류가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.373-383
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• 2006

The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.68-75
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• 2005

The fatigue life of welded joints is associated with crack initiation and propagation life. Theses cannot be easily separated, since the definition of crack initiation is vague due to the initiation of multiple cracks that are distributed randomly along the weld toes. In this paper a method involving a notch strain and fracture mechanical approach, which considers the characteristics of welded joints, e.g. welding residual stress and statistical characteristics of multiple cracks, is proposed, in an attempt to reasonably estimate these fatigue lives. The fatigue crack initiation life was evaluated statistically, e.g. the probability of failure occurrence in 2.3, 50 and $97.7\%$, in which the cyclic response of the local stress/strain hi the vicinity of the weld toes and notch factors derived by the irregular shape of the weld bead are taken into account. The fatigue crack propagation life was simulated by using Monte-Carlo method in consideration of the Ad-factor and the mechanical behavior of mutual interaction/coalescence between two adjacent cracks. The estimated total fatigue life, $(N_T)_{P50\%}$, as a sum of crack initiation and propagation life under the probability of failure occurrence in $50\%$ showed a good agreement with the experimental results. The developed technique for fatigue lift estimation enables to provide a quantitative proportion of crack initiation and propagation life in the total fatigue life due to the nominal stress range, ${\Delta}S$.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2010년도 한국우주과학회보 제19권1호
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• pp.38.2-38.2
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• 2010

We have examined the occurrence probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending three flare parameters (X-ray peak flux, longitude, and impulsive time). For this we used NOAA SPEs from 1976 to 2006, and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we selected 166 proton events that were associated with major flares; 85 events associated with X-class flares and 81 events associated with M-class flares. Especially the occurrence probability strongly depends on these three parameters. In addition, the relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. Among NOAA SPEs from 1997 to 2006, most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. We carefully identified the sources of these events using LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. Specifically, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the history of active regions. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce SPEs without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of SPEs by considering solar rotation rate. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side. Now we are examining the occurrence probability of SPEs depending on CME parameters. Finally, we will discuss the future prospects on the development of an empirical SPE forecast model based on the information of flares and CMEs.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제101권1호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2012

산불의 빠른 탐지와 진화를 위해서는 산불이 발생할 가능성이 높은 곳에 산불예방과 진화를 위한 자원을 집중적으로 배치하여야 한다. 이를 위해 임상, 지형 인자, 사회-공간 인자를 이용하여 산불발생확률을 추정할 수 있는 로지스틱 회귀모형을 개발하고, 이를 통해 전국 산불발생확률지도를 작성하였다. 모형 추정 결과 산림 및 묘지와의 거리, 과거의 산불빈도, 침엽수림, 낮은 고도, 급경사에서 산불발생확률이 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 분류정확도는 63% 이었다. 개발된 모형과 지도는 한정된 산불자원을 최적으로 배치하는데 참고자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국해양공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국해양공학회 2006년 창립20주년기념 정기학술대회 및 국제워크샵
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• pp.127-134
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• 2006

Based on a weakly non-Gaussian theory the occurrence probability of freak waves is formulated in terms of the number of waves in a time series and the surface elevation kurtosis. Finite kurtosis gives rise to a significant enhancement of freak wave generation in comparison with the linear narrow banded wave theory. For fixed number of waves, the estimated amplification ratio of freak wave occurrence due to the deviation from the Gaussian theory is 50% - 300%. The results of the theory are compared with laboratory and field data.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.369-378
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• 2006

This Study focuses on the binary forecast of occurrence of heavy snow in Honam area based on the MOS(model output statistic) method. For our study daily amount of snow cover at 17 stations during the cold season (November to March) in 2001 to 2005 and Corresponding 45 RDAPS outputs are used. Logistic regression model and neural networks are applied to predict the probability of occurrence of Heavy snow. Based on the distribution of estimated probabilities, optimal thresholds are determined via true shill score. According to the results of comparison the logistic regression model is recommended.