Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
권호 표지

Development of Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Using Logistic Regression

로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 산불발생확률모형 개발

  • Lee, Byungdoo (Division of forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Ryu, Gyesun (Division of forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Kim, Seonyoung (Division of forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Kim, Kyongha (Division of forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute)
  • 이병두 (국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과) ;
  • 유계선 (국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과) ;
  • 김선영 (국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과) ;
  • 김경하 (국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과)
  • Published : 2012.03.31
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Abstract

To achieve the forest fire management goals such as early detection and quick suppression, fire resources should be allocated at high probability area where forest fires occur. The objective of this study was to develop and validate models to estimate spatially distributed probabilities of occurrence of forest fire. The models were builded by exploring relationships between fire ignition location and forest, terrain and anthropogenic factors using logistic regression. Distance to forest, cemetery, fire history, forest type, elevation, slope were chosen as the significant factors to the model. The model constructed had a good fit and classification accuracy of the model was 63%. This model and map can support the allocation optimization of forest fire resources and increase effectiveness in fire prevention and planning.

산불의 빠른 탐지와 진화를 위해서는 산불이 발생할 가능성이 높은 곳에 산불예방과 진화를 위한 자원을 집중적으로 배치하여야 한다. 이를 위해 임상, 지형 인자, 사회-공간 인자를 이용하여 산불발생확률을 추정할 수 있는 로지스틱 회귀모형을 개발하고, 이를 통해 전국 산불발생확률지도를 작성하였다. 모형 추정 결과 산림 및 묘지와의 거리, 과거의 산불빈도, 침엽수림, 낮은 고도, 급경사에서 산불발생확률이 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 분류정확도는 63% 이었다. 개발된 모형과 지도는 한정된 산불자원을 최적으로 배치하는데 참고자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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