• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제21권12호
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• pp.603-611
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• 2020

도로에 발생하는 포트홀은 운전자들의 안전과 만족도, 차량파손에 직접적으로 영향을 미치는 요소로 실시간에 준하는 검지와 대응이 요구된다. 순찰 빈도를 높이면 포트홀의 조속한 검지와 대응이 가능하나, 많은 인력과 비용, 시간이 소요된다. 또한 포트홀은 우천에 따라 발생특성이 달라지기 때문에 순찰의 효율성을 제고하기 위해서는 경제적 관점과 서비스 제공의 관점에서 최적빈도에 대해 고민해야 할 필요가 있다. 이에 본 연구는 장기간에 걸쳐 수집된 포트홀 발생이력과 기상정보를 활용하여 우천이 포트홀 발생에 미치는 영향과, 지속성, 강우강도의 영향에 대해 정량적 분석을 시도하였다. 그리고 이 결과를 근거로 리스크 기반의 최적화·가변화 순찰 전략을 제시하였다. 분석 결과 우천 시에는 포트홀 발생확률은 2.4배 증가하고, 비가 그친 후에도 그 영향은 3일간 지속됨을 알 수 있었다. 또한 강우강도 1mm 당 포트홀 발생확률은 0.46% 증가하며, 1mm 수준의 적은 비에도 발생특성이 민감하게 반응함도 확인하였다. 이러한 특성에 근거한 포트홀 관리 최적 빈도는 신뢰수준 95% 수준에서 우천 비영향권일 경우 3일에 1회, 영향권에서는 1일 2회 이상의 순찰이 필요하다는 결론이 도출되었다.

• Korean Journal of Acupuncture
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.18-32
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• 2016

Objectives : This study aims to analyze the co-occurrence of pathological symptoms and corresponding acupoints as documented by the comprehensive acupuncture and moxibustion records in the classical texts of Far East traditional medicine as an aid to a more efficient understanding of the tacit treatment principles of ancient physicians. Methods : The Classic of Nourishing Life with Acupuncture and Moxibustion(Zhenjiu Zisheng Jing; hereinafter ZZJ) was selected as the primary reference book for the analysis. The pathology-acupoint co-occurrence analysis was performed by applying 4 values of vector space measures(weighted Euclidean distance, Euclidean distance, $Cram\acute{e}r^{\prime}s$ V and Canberra distance), which measure the distance between the observed and expected co-occurrence counts, and 3 values of probabilistic measures(association strength, Fisher's exact test and Jaccard similarity), which measure the probability of observed co-occurrences. Results : The treatment records contained in ZZJ were preprocessed, which yielded 4162 pathology-acupoint sets. Co-occurrence was performed applying 7 different analysis variables, followed by a prediction simulation. The prediction simulation results revealed the Weighted Euclidean distance had the highest prediction rate with 24.32%, followed by Canberra distance(23.14%) and association strength(21.29%). Conclusions : The weighted Euclidean distance among the vector space measures and the association strength among the probabilistic measures were verified to be the most efficient analysis methods in analyzing the correlation between acupoints and pathologies found in the classical medical texts.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.18-25
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• 2021

Specialty contractor facilities, which involve a combination of welding and commissioning, face a high risk of serious accidents such as fire, explosion, and suffocation associated with welding work, nitrogen, and argon use. In such facilities, the organizational safety culture has considerable impact on the frequency of accidents. In this study, a safety culture evaluation was conducted on specialty contractors. NOSACQ-50, a standardized survey method on safety culture, was selected as an assessment tool to evaluate the safety culture in specialized construction companies that could not afford to invest heavily in safety. The self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted with 201 workers of four construction companies and the results were analyzed. It was found that in companies with low safety culture, the occurrence of irrationality was 66.0%, while in companies with high safety culture, the occurrence of irrationality was 42.6%. Thus, the difference in the occurrence of irrationality by safety culture was statistically significant. The difference in safety culture level according to the experience of occurrence of irrationality was also significant. It was also found that the higher the belief in safety management authorization, safety responsibilities of managers, worker safety priorities, and safety system effects, the lower the probability of irrationality.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.81-86
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• 1997

본 연구에서는 다양한 위험성 평가 방법중에서 사고의 발생 경위를 연역적으로 추론해 나가는 이상 트리 분석 방법을 이용하여 정상사상을 일으킬 수 있는 시스템 요소들의 파악으로부터 화학공장의 사고 발생 가능성을 산정하였다. Gate-by-gate 방법과 최소 컷 ? 방법을 이용하여 공장내 존재하는 잠재위험에 대하여 정성적 및 정량적 위험성 평가를 수행하였다. 정량적인 위험성 평가 단계에서는 시스템 요소의 고장률 또는 신뢰율 자료로부터 정상사상의 사고 발생 확률 및 빈도를 계산하였다 결론적으로 이상 트리 분석방법을 이용하여 시스템/공정의 사고 발생확률을 논리 방식으로 계산할 수 있었으며, 중요도 분석을 이용하여 정상 사상이 발생하는데 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 손실 경로를 확인하여 보았다.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.38-49
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• 2016

This paper proposes a mathematical model-based solution for sourcing decisions with an objective of minimizing the manufacturer's total cost in the two-echelon supply chain with supply capacity risk. The risk impact is represented by uniform, beta, and triangular distributions. For the mathematical model, the probability vector of normal, risk, and recovery statuses are developed by using the status transition probability matrix and the equations for estimating the supply capacity under risk and recovery statuses are derived for each of the three probability distributions. Those formulas derived are validated using the sampling method. The results of the simulation study on the test problem show that the sourcing decisions using the proposed solution reduce the total cost by 1.6~3.7%, compared with the ones without a consideration of supply capacity risk. The total cost reduction increases approximately in a linear fashion as the probability of risk occurrence or reduction rate of supply capacity due to risk events is increased.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2012

The change of rainfall pattern and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the occurrence probability of agricultural reservoir water shortage. Water supply assessment of reservoir is usually performed current reservoir level compared to historical water levels or the simulation of reservoir operation based on the water budget analysis. Since each reservoir has the native property for watershed, irrigation district and irrigation water requirement, it is necessary to improve the assessment methods of agricultural reservoir water capability about water resources system. This study proposed a practical methods that water supply vulnerability assessment for an agricultural reservoir based on a concept of probabilistic reliability. The vulnerability assessment of water supply is calculated from probability distribution of water demand condition and water supply condition that influences on water resources management and reservoir operations. The water supply vulnerability indices are estimated to evaluate the performance of water supply on agricultural reservoir system, and thus it is recommended a more objective method to evaluate water supply reliability.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.719-729
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• 2017

A considerable research is available on the seismic response of Reinforced Concrete (RC) shear wall-frame buildings, but the studies on the reliability of such buildings, with the consideration of human error, are limited. In the present study, a detailed procedure for reliability assessment of RC shear wall-frame building subjected to earthquake loading against serviceability limit state is presented. Monte Carlo simulation was used for the reliability assessment. The procedure was implemented on a 10-story RC building to demonstrate that the shear walls improve the reliability substantially. The annual and life-time failure probabilities of the studied building were estimated by employing the information of the annual probability of earthquake occurrence and the design life of the building. A simple risk-based cost assessment procedure that relates both the structural life-time failure probability and the target reliability with the total cost of the building was then presented. The structural failure probability (i.e., the probability of exceeding the allowable drift) considering human errors was also studied. It was observed that human error in the estimation of total load and/or concrete strength changes the reliability sharply.

• 대한전자공학회논문지SD
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• 제43권8호
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• pp.35-43
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• 2006

이 논문에서는 공정 변이의 고려를 위한 통계적 시간 분석(statistical timing analysis)에서 전력감소를 고려한 회로의 최적화를 위해 글리치 및 지연시간의 확률적 모델 및 연산을 이용하여 각 경로 및 경로상의 게이트의 민감도(sensitivity)를 계산하고 이를 이용한 사이징(sizing)을 통해 회로의 지연시간의 증가 없이 글리치를 감소하는 방법을 제시한다. 제안된 알고리즘은 통계적 시간 분석에 근거한 회로의 전후방 탐색을 이용하여 공정 변수를 고려한 확률적 글리치 발생률을 예측한다. 또한 글리치 발생률을 고려한 게이트의 선택 및 사이징 가능한 지연시간의 최적화된 계산을 통해 효율적인 게이트 사이징 기법과 글리치 감소를 위한 경로균등화 방법을 제시한다. 제안된 알고리즘의 효율성은 $0.16{\mu}m$ 모델 파라미터를 이용하여 ISCAS85 벤치마크 회로에 대한 실험을 통해 검증되었다. 실험 결과를 통해 제안된 알고리즘은 글리치 예측에 있어 8.6%의 정확도의 개선을 보였고, 경로균등화에 의한 최적화에 있어 9.5%의 개선을 보였다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.1398-1417
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• 2013

A method is proposed to reduce excess resources from a virtual machine(VM) while avoiding subsequent migrations for a computer cluster that provides cloud service. The proposed scheme cuts down on the resources of a VM based on the probability that migration may occur after a reduction. First, it finds a VM that can be scaled down by analyzing the history of the resource usage. Then, the migration probability is calculated as a function of the VM resource usage trend and the trend error. Finally, the amount of resources needed to eliminate from an underutilized VM is determined such that the migration probability after the resource reduction is less than or equal to an acceptable migration probability. The acceptable migration probability, to be set by the cloud service provider, is a criterion to assign a weight to the resource reduction either to prevent VM migrations or to enhance VM utilization. The results of simulation show that the proposed scheme lowers migration frequency by 31.6~60.8% depending on the consistency of resource demand while losing VM utilization by 9.1~21.5% compared to other known approaches, such as the static and the prediction-based methods. It is also verified that the proposed scheme extends the elapsed time before the first occurrence of migration after resource reduction 1.1~2.3-fold. In addition, changes in migration frequency and VM utilization are analyzed with varying acceptable migration probabilities and the consistency of resource demand patterns. It is expected that the analysis results can help service providers choose a right value of the acceptable migration probability under various environments having different migration costs and operational costs.

• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2004

산불로 인한 재해를 미연에 방지하고 피해를 저감하기 위해서는 산불발생위험지역을 사전에 파악하여 예방대책을 세울 필요가 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 산불발생인자에 따른 산불발생위험지역을 구분하고자 경상북도 의성군에서 발생한 산불피해지역에 대하여 임상, 지형 등에 대하여 조사하였다. 조사된 요인들 간 독립성 유무를 상관분석을 이용하여 산불발생과 관련 있는 7개의 주제도를 선정하였으며, 선정된 주제도률 조건부확률과 지리정보시스템을 이용하여 산불발생확률을 계산하였다. 계산된 산불발생확률을 20개 등급으로 지수화하여 산불발생위험지역을 구분하였다.