• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.73-83
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• 2021

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models play an essential role in predicting weather factors, but using them is challenging due to various factors. To overcome the difficulties of NWP models, deep learning models have been deployed in weather forecasting by several recent studies. This study adapts long short-term memory (LSTM), which demonstrates remarkable performance in time-series prediction. The combination of LSTM model input of meteorological features and activation functions have a significant impact on the performance therefore, the results from 5 combinations of input features and 4 activation functions are analyzed in 9 Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations corresponding to cities/islands/mountains. The optimized LSTM model produces better performance within eight forecast hours than Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) operated by Korean meteorological administration. Therefore, this study illustrates that this LSTM model can be usefully applied to very short-term weather forecasting, and further studies about CNN-LSTM model with 2-D spatial convolution neural network (CNN) coupled in LSTM are required for improvement.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.71-80
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• 2019

Daily ahead forecast is necessary for the electricity balance between load and supply due to the variability renewable energy. Numerical weather prediction is usually employed to produce the solar irradiance as well as electric power forecast for more than 12 hours forecast horizon. UM-LDAPS model is the numerical weather prediction operated by Korea Meteorological Administration and it generates the 36 hours forecast of hourly total irradiance 4 times a day. This study attempts to evaluate the model performance against the in situ measurements at 37 ground stations from January to May, 2013. Relative mean bias error, mean absolute error and root mean square error of hourly total irradiance are averaged over all ground stations as being 8.2%, 21.2% and 29.6%, respectively. The behavior of mean bias error appears to be different; positively largest in Chupoongnyeong station but negatively largest in Daegu station. The distinct contrast might be attributed to the limitation of microphysics parameterization for thick and thin clouds in the model.

• Atmosphere
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.197-208
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to describe the short-range forecast system of the Korea Air Force (KAF) and to verificate its performace in 2009 summer. The KAF weather prediction model system, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (i.e., the KAF-WRF), is configured with a parent domain overs East Asia and two nested domains with the finest horizontal grid size of 2 km. Each domain covers the Korean peninsula and South Korea, respectively. The model is integrated for 84 hour 4 times a day with the initial and boundary conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) data. A quantitative verification system is constructed for the East Asia and Korean peninsula domains. Verification variables for the East Asia domain are 500 hPa temperature, wind and geopotential height fields, and the skill score is calculated using the difference between the analysis data from the NCEP GFS model and the forecast data of the KAF-WRF model results. Accuracy of precipitation for the Korean penisula domain is examined using the contingency table that is made of the KAF-WRF model results and the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administraion) AWS (Automatic Weather Station) data. Using the verification system, the operational model and parallel model with updated version of the WRF model and improved physics process are quantitatively evaluated for the 2009 summer. Over the East Aisa region, the parallel experimental model shows the better performance than the operation model. Errors of the experimental model in 500 hPa geopotential height near the Tibetan plateau are smaller than errors in the operational model. Over the Korean peninsula, verification of precipitation prediction skills shows that the performance of the operational model is better than that of the experimental one in simulating light precipitation. However, performance of experimental one is generally better than that of operational one, in prediction.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.21-39
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• 2019

The conventional observations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are compared in the numerical weather forecast system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). The weather forecasting system used in this study is consists of Korea Integrated Model (KIM) as a global numerical weather prediction model, three-dimensional variational method as a data assimilation system, and KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP) as an observation pre-processing system. As a result, the forecast performance of NCEP observation was better while the number of observation is similar to the KMA observation. In addition, the sensitivity of forecast performance was investigated for each SONDE, SURFACE and AIRCRAFT observations. The differences in AIRCRAFT observation were not sensitive to forecast, but the use of NCEP SONDE and SURFACE observations have shown better forecast performance. It is found that the NCEP observations have more wind observations of the SONDE in the upper atmosphere and more surface pressure observations of the SURFACE in the ocean. The results suggest that evenly distributed observations can lead to improved forecast performance.

• Journal of Convergence Society for SMB
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.93-98
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• 2016

Recently, the project related to the smart grid are being actively studied around the developed world. In particular, the long-term stabilization measures distributed power supply problem has been highlighted. In this paper, we propose a three-dimensional numerical weather prediction models to compare the error rate information which combined with the physical models and statistical models to predict the output of distributed power. Proposed model can predict the system for a stable power grid-can improve the prediction information of the distributed power. In performance evaluation, proposed model was a generation forecasting accuracy improved by 4.6%, temperature compensated prediction accuracy was improved by 3.5%. Finally, the solar radiation correction accuracy is improved by 1.1%.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.65 no.5
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• pp.851-856
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• 2016

Wind speed is heavily fluctuated and quite local than other weather elements. It is difficult to improve the accuracy of prediction only in a numerical prediction model. An MOS (Model Output Statistics) technique is used to correct the systematic errors of the model using a statistical data analysis. The Most of previous MOS has used a linear regression model for weather prediction, but it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction of wind speed. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear regression method using SVR (Support Vector Regression) is introduced for a development of MOS for wind speed prediction. Experiments are performed for KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) re-analysis data from 2007 to 2013 year for Jeju Island and Busan area in South Korea. The MLR and SVR based linear and nonlinear methods are compared to each other for prediction accuracy of wind speed. Also, the comparison experiments are executed for the variation in the number of UM elements.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.12
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• pp.2202-2211
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• 2010

The wind power prediction system is composed of a meteorological forecasting module, calculation module of wind power output and HMI(Human Machine Interface) visualization system. The final information from this system is a short-term (6hr ahead) and mid-term (48hr ahead) wind power prediction value. The meteorological forecasting module for wind speed and direction forecasting is a combination of physical and statistical model. In this system, the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model, which is a three-dimensional numerical weather model, is used as the physical model and the GFS(Global Forecasting System) models is used for initial condition forecasting. The 100m resolution terrain data is used to improve the accuracy of this system. In addition, optimization of the physical model carried out using historic weather data in Jeju. The mid-term prediction value from the physical model is used in the statistical method for a short-term prediction. The final power prediction is calculated using an optimal adjustment between the currently observed data and data predicted from the power curve model. The final wind power prediction value is provided to customs using a HMI visualization system. The aim of this study is to further improve the accuracy of this prediction system and develop a practical system for power system operation and the energy market in the Smart-Grid.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.327-333
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• 2019

Wind speed data constitute important weather information for aircrafts flying at low altitudes, such as drones. Currently, the accuracy of low altitude wind predictions is much lower than that of high-altitude wind predictions. Deep neural networks are proposed in this study as a method to improve wind speed forecast information. Deep neural networks mimic the learning process of the interactions among neurons in the brain, and it is used in various fields, such as recognition of image, sound, and texts, image and natural language processing, and pattern recognition in time-series. In this study, the deep neural network model is constructed using the wind prediction values generated by the numerical model as an input to improve the wind speed forecasts. Using the ground wind speed forecast data collected at the Boseong Meteorological Observation Tower, wind speed forecast values obtained by the numerical model are compared with those obtained by the model proposed in this study for the verification of the validity and compatibility of the proposed model.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.26 no.10
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• pp.1167-1180
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• 2017

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are essential for forecasting one-day-ahead solar irradiance. In order to evaluate the performance of the WRF in forecasting solar irradiance over the Korean Peninsula, we compared WRF prediction data from 2008 to 2010 corresponding to weather observation data (OBS) from the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The WRF model showed poor performance at polluted regions such as Seoul and Suwon where the relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) is over 30%. Predictions by the WRF model alone had a large amount of potential error because of the lack of actual aerosol radiative feedbacks. For the purpose of reducing this error induced by atmospheric particles, i.e., aerosols, the WRF model was coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The coupled system makes it possible to estimate the radiative feedbacks of aerosols on the solar irradiance. As a result, the solar irradiance estimated by the coupled system showed a strong dependence on both the aerosol spatial distributions and the associated optical properties. In the NF (No Feedback) case, which refers to the WRF-only stimulated system without aerosol feedbacks, the GHI was overestimated by $50-200W\;m^{-2}$ compared with OBS derived values at each site. In the YF (Yes Feedback) case, in contrast, which refers to the WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled system, the rRMSE was significantly improved by 3.1-3.7% at Suwon and Seoul where the Particulate Matter (PM) concentrations, specifically, those related to the $PM_{10}$ size fraction, were over $100{\mu}g\;m^{-3}$. Thus, the coupled system showed promise for acquiring more accurate solar irradiance forecasts.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.89-99
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is analysis of Korean peninsula aircraft turbulence using the numerical weather prediction model, KWRF with the various turbulence index and pilot weather report data. Compared with the pilot weather report data and Calculated the turbulence index using the KWRF model result, many turbulence index show the similar horizontal distribution, except for the TUB2 and VWS. The analysis of vertical structure of turbulence, there are some difference each turbulence index respectively, but severe turbulence turn up in 15,000ft almost turbulence index. above 20,000ft height, intensity of turbulence vary each turbulence index. Through this turbulence study, It is founded on the research and development of the Korean peninsula aircraft turbulence