• Atmosphere
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.327-337
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• 2007

In this study, we examined the new ensemble training approach to reduce the systematic error and improve prediction skill of wind by using the Short-range Ensemble prediction system (SENSE), which is the mesoscale multi-model ensemble prediction system. The SENSE has 16 ensemble members based on the MM5, WRF ARW, and WRF NMM. We evaluated the skill of surface wind prediction compared with AWS (Automatic Weather Station) observation during the summer season (June - August, 2006). At first stage, the correction of initial state for each member was performed with respect to the observed values, and the corrected members get the training stage to find out an adaptive weight function, which is formulated by Root Mean Square Vector Error (RMSVE). It was found that the optimal training period was 1-day through the experiments of sensitivity to the training interval. We obtained the weighted ensemble average which reveals smaller errors of the spatial and temporal pattern of wind speed than those of the simple ensemble average.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.186-194
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• 2001

The operational meso-scale short range NWP system was developed for Cheju Regional Meteorological Office located at Cheju island, Korea. The Central Meteorological Service Center, KMA has reported the information on numerical weather prediction every 12 hours. But this information is not enough to determine the detail forecast for the regional meteorological office because the terrain of the Korean peninsula is very complex and the resolution of the numerical model provided by KMA headquarter is too coarse to resolve the local severe weather system such as heavy rainfall. LAPS and MM5 models were chosen for three-dimentional data assimilation and numerical weather prediction tools respectively. LAPS was designed to provide the initial data to all regional numerical prediction models including MM5. Synoptic observational data from GTS, satellite brightness temperature data from GMS-5 and the composite reflectivity data from 5 radar sites were used in the LAPS data assimilation for producing the initial data. MM5 was performed on PC-cluster based on 16 pentium CPUs which was one of the cheapest distributed parallel computer in these days. We named this system as Halla Short Range Prediction System (HSRPS). HSRPS was verified by heavy rainfall case in July 9, 1999, it showed that HSRPS well resolved local severe weather which was not simulated by 30 km MM5/KMA. Especially, the structure of rainfall amount was very close to the corresponding observation. HSRPS will be operating every 6 hours in the Cheju Regional Meteorological Office from April 2000.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.257-267
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• 2019

This study is to assess the applicability of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) algorithm of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system to the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), operational seasonal forecast system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EFI is based on the difference between Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curves of the model's climate data and the current ensemble forecast distribution, which is essential to diagnose the predictability in the extreme cases. To investigate its applicability, the experiment was conducted during the heat-wave cases (the year of 1994 and 2003) and compared GloSea5 hindcast data based EFI with anomaly data of ERA-Interim. The data also used to determine quantitative estimates of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and spatial pattern correlation. The results showed that the area of ERA-Interim indicating above 4-degree temperature corresponded to the area of EFI 0.8 and above. POD showed high ratio (0.7 and 0.9, respectively), when ERA-Interim anomaly data were the highest (on Jul. 11, 1994 (> $5^{\circ}C$) and Aug. 8, 2003 (> $7^{\circ}C$), respectively). The spatial pattern showed a high correlation in the range of 0.5~0.9. However, the correlation decreased as the lead time increased. Furthermore, the case of Korea heat wave in 2018 was conducted using GloSea5 forecast data to validate EFI showed successful prediction for two to three weeks lead time. As a result, the EFI forecasts can be used to predict the probability that an extreme weather event of interest might occur. Overall, we expected these results to be available for extreme weather forecasting.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.333-346
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• 2024

High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction is crucial for sustainable water quality and aquatic ecosystem management. For reliable medium-range streamflow predictions, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of forcings and to effectively utilize weather forecast data with low spatio-temporal resolutions. In this study, we presented a comparative analysis of medium-range streamflow predictions using the distributed hydrological model, WRF-Hydro, and the numerical weather forecast Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) in the Geumho River basin, Korea. Multiple forcings, ground observations (AWS&ASOS), numerical weather forecast (GDAPS), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), were ingested to investigate the performance of streamflow predictions with highresolution WRF-Hydro configuration. In terms of the mean areal accumulated rainfall, GDAPS was overestimated by 36% to 234%, and GLDAS reanalysis data were overestimated by 80% to 153% compared to AWS&ASOS. The performance of streamflow predictions using AWS&ASOS resulted in KGE and NSE values of 0.6 or higher at the Kangchang station. Meanwhile, GDAPS-based streamflow predictions showed high variability, with KGE values ranging from 0.871 to -0.131 depending on the rainfall events. Although the peak flow error of GDAPS was larger or similar to that of GLDAS, the peak flow timing error of GDAPS was smaller than that of GLDAS. The average timing errors of AWS&ASOS, GDAPS, and GLDAS were 3.7 hours, 8.4 hours, and 70.1 hours, respectively. Medium-range streamflow predictions using GDAPS and high-resolution WRF-Hydro may provide useful information for water resources management especially in terms of occurrence and timing of peak flow albeit high uncertainty in flood magnitude.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.141-151
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• 2018

The KIAPS global model and data assimilation system were extended to assimilate brightness temperature from the Sondeur $Atmosph{\acute{e}}rique$ du Profil $d^{\prime}Humidit{\acute{e}}$ Intertropicale par $Radiom{\acute{e}}trie$ (SAPHIR) passive microwave water vapor sounder on board the Megha-Tropiques satellite. Quality control procedures were developed to assess the SAPHIR data quality for assimilating clear-sky observations over the ocean, and to characterize observation biases and errors. In the global cycle, additional assimilation of SAPHIR observation shows globally significant benefits for 1.5% reduction of the humidity root-mean-square difference (RMSD) against European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) analysis. The positive forecast impacts for the humidity and temperature in the experiment assimilating SAPHIR were predominant at later lead times between 96- and 168-hour. Even though its spatial coverage is confined to lower latitudes of $30^{\circ}S-30^{\circ}N$ and the observable variable is humidity, the assimilation of SAPHIR has a positive impact on the other variables over the mid-latitude domain. Verification showed a 3% reduction of the humidity RMSD with assimilating SAPHIR, and moreover temperature, zonal wind and surface pressure RMSDs were reduced up to 3%, 5% and 7% near the tropical and mid-latitude regions, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.232-245
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• 2017

In this study, the high-resolution numerical simulation results considering landuse characteristics are analyzed by using single layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) in Weather Research Forecast (WRF). For this, the impact of urban parameters such as roughness length and anthropogenic heat in UCM is analyzed. These values are adjusted to Seoul metropolitan area in Korea. The results of assessment are verified against observation from surface and flux tower. Forecast system equipped with UCM shows an overall improvement in the simulations of meteorological parameters, especially temperature at 2 m, surface sensible and latent heat flux. Major contribution of UCM is appreciably found in urban area rather than non-urban. The non-urban area is indirectly affected. In simulated latent heat flux, applying UCM is possible to simulate the change similarly with observations on urban area. Anthropogenic heat employed in UCM shows the most realistic results in terms of temperature and surface heat flux, indicating thermodynamic treatment of UCM could enhance the skills of high resolution forecast model in urban and non-urban area.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1142-1146
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• 2009

A rainfall simulation and forecasting technique that can generate daily rainfall sequences conditional on multi-model ensemble GCMs is developed and applied to data in Korea for the major rainy season. The GCM forecasts are provided by APEC climate center. A Weather State Based Downscaling Model (WSDM) is used to map teleconnections from ocean-atmosphere data or key state variables from numerical integrations of Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models to simulate daily sequences at multiple rain gauges. The method presented is general and is applied to the wet season which is JJA(June-July-August) data in Korea. The sequences of weather states identified by the EM algorithm are shown to correspond to dominant synoptic-scale features of rainfall generating mechanisms. Application of the methodology to seasonal rainfall forecasts using empirical teleconnections and GCM derived climate forecast are discussed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.43-50
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• 2002

Accurate quantitative forecasting of rainfall for basins with a short response time is essential to predict streamflow and flash floods. Previously, neural networks were used to develop a Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) model that highly improved forecasting skill at specific locations in Pennsylvania, using both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output and rainfall and radiosonde data. The objective of this study was to improve an existing artificial neural network model and incorporate the evolving structure and frequency of intense weather systems in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States for improved flood forecasting. Besides using radiosonde and rainfall data, the model also used the satellite-derived characteristics of storm systems such as tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complex systems and convective cloud clusters as input. The convective classification and tracking system (CCATS) was used to identify and quantify storm properties such as life time, area, eccentricity, and track. As in standard expert prediction systems, the fundamental structure of the neural network model was learned from the hydroclimatology of the relationships between weather system, rainfall production and streamflow response in the study area. The new Quantitative Flood Forecasting (QFF) model was applied to predict streamflow peaks with lead-times of 18 and 24 hours over a five year period in 4 watersheds on the leeward side of the Appalachian mountains in the mid-Atlantic region. Threat scores consistently above .6 and close to 0.8 ∼ 0.9 were obtained fur 18 hour lead-time forecasts, and skill scores of at least 4％ and up to 6％ were attained for the 24 hour lead-time forecasts. This work demonstrates that multisensor data cast into an expert information system such as neural networks, if built upon scientific understanding of regional hydrometeorology, can lead to significant gains in the forecast skill of extreme rainfall and associated floods. In particular, this study validates our hypothesis that accurate and extended flood forecast lead-times can be attained by taking into consideration the synoptic evolution of atmospheric conditions extracted from the analysis of large-area remotely sensed imagery While physically-based numerical weather prediction and river routing models cannot accurately depict complex natural non-linear processes, and thus have difficulty in simulating extreme events such as heavy rainfall and floods, data-driven approaches should be viewed as a strong alternative in operational hydrology. This is especially more pertinent at a time when the diversity of sensors in satellites and ground-based operational weather monitoring systems provide large volumes of data on a real-time basis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.7
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• pp.575-584
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• 2018

An increase in heavy rainfall and floods have been observed over South Korea due to recent abnormal weather. In this perspective, the high-resolution weather forecasts have been widely used to facilitate flood management. However, these models are known to be biased due to initial conditions and topographical conditions in the process of model building. Theretofore, a bias correction scheme is largely applied for the practical use of the prediction to flood management. This study introduces a new mean field bias correction (MFBC) approach for the high-resolution numerical rainfall products, which is based on a Bayesian Kriging model to combine an interpolation technique and MFBC approach for spatial representation of the error. The results showed that the proposed method can reliably estimate the bias correction factor over ungauged area with an improvement in the reduction of errors. Moreover, it can be seen that the bias corrected rainfall forecasts could be used up to 72 hours ahead with a relatively high accuracy.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.67-83
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• 2015

Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitation forecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model can predict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecast because it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both a higher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertainties of convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational Unified Model (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated for the ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developed showed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well as meteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontal resolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontal resolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecasts from the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the study period were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM) method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and the FSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system in KMA.