• 대기
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.303-318
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• 2006

A parameterization of gravity wave drag induced by cumulus convection (GWDC) proposed by Chun and Baik is implemented in the KMA operational global NWP model (GDAPS), and effects of the GWDC on the forecast for July 2005 by GDAPS are investigated. The forecast result is compared with NCEP final analyses data (FNL) and model's own analysis data. Cloud-top gravity wave stresses are concentrated in the tropical region, and the resultant forcing by the GWDC is strong in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nevertheless, the effect of the GWDC is strong in the mid- to high latitudes of Southern Hemisphere and high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere. By examining the effect of the GWDC on the amplitude of the geopotential height perturbation with zonal wavenumbers 1-3, it is found that impact of the GWDC is extended to the high latitudes through the change of planetary wave activity, which is maximum in the winter hemisphere. The GWDC reduces the amplitude of zonal wavenumber 1 but increases wavenumber 2 in the winter hemisphere. This change alleviates model biases in the zonal wind not only in the lower stratosphere where the GWDC is imposed, but also in the whole troposphere, especially in the mid- to high latitudes of Southern Hemisphere. By examining root mean square error, it is found that the GWDC parameterization improves GDAPS forecast skill in the Southern Hemisphere before 7 days and partially in the Northern Hemisphere after about 5 days.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.158-170
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• 2015

큰 에디 모의과정을 포함한 WRF 모델 (WRF-LES)을 이용하여 수치모델의 수평공간 규모에 따른 대기경계층 모수화 실험과 LES 모의 결과를 지표층 근처의 풍속 예측에 대하여 비교하였다. 수치실험은 복잡한 산악지형과 해안지역을 포함하는 강원도 지역에서 수평해상도 1 km와 333 m 실험을 수행하였다. 수평해상도 1 km 실험은 대기경계층 모수화 방안을 채택하였으며, 333 m 실험에서는 LES를 이용하였다. 복잡한 산악지역에서의 풍속 예측의 정확성은 수평해상도 1 km 실험 보다 333 m 실험에서 향상되었으며 해안지역에서는 1 km 실험에서 관측과 더 일치하였다. 지표층 근처의 큰 난류를 직접 계산하는 LES 실험은 산악지역의 풍속예측 개선에 기여하였다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제64권3호
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• pp.393-398
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• 2015

City or Community-scale Energy Management System(CEMS) is used to reduce the total energy consumed in the city by arranging the energy resources efficiently at the planning stage and controlling them economically at the operating stage. Of the operational functions of the CEMS, generation forecasting of renewable energy resources is an essential feature for the effective supply scheduling. This is because it can develop daily operating schedules of controllable generators in the city (e.g. diesel turbine, micro-gas turbine, ESS, CHP and so on) in order to minimize the inflow of the external power supply system, considering the amount of power generated by the uncontrollable renewable energy resources. This paper is written to introduce numerical models for photo-voltaic power generation prediction based on the weather forecasting information. Unlike the conventional methods using the average radiation or average utilization rate, the proposed models are developed for CEMS applications using the realtime weather forecast information provided by the National Weather Service.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.289-299
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• 2015

본 연구는 PM10 농도에 대한 계량치 예측모형 개발을 목적으로 한다. 세 종류의 자료 (기상관측 자료, 세계기상통신망 중국 관측자료, 대기질 화학수치모델자료)를 예측인자로 사용하였으며, 일일 단기예보 시스템에 쉽게 적용할 수 있도록 시간자료를 일자료로 변환하였고 시차변환을 수행하였다. 상관분석과 다중공선성 진단을 통하여 예측인자를 선택하고 두 종류의 모형 (중회귀모형, 문턱치 회귀모형)을 각각 적합하였다. 모형 안정성 검사를 위하여 모형검증을 수행하였으며, 전체자료를 사용하여 모형을 재추정한 후 예측치와 관측치 사이의 산점도와 시계열그림, RMSE, 예측성 평가측도를 작성 및 산출하여 두 모형을 비교하였다. 문턱치 회귀모형의 예측력이 고농도 PM10예측에서 다소 우수한 결과를 보였다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제50권8호
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• pp.537-549
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 기상청에서 제공하는 국지예보모델(LDAPS)과 일본 기상청의 중규모모델(Meso-Scale Model, MSM)을 이용하여 태풍 및 정체전선 등 3개의 강우사상과 남강댐 유역 내 산청 유역에 대해 강우 및 홍수 예측 정확도를 평가하고 비교 검토하였다. 강우예측 정확도 평가 결과, LDAPS와 MSM 모두 태풍 사상과 같은 광역적인 예측에 대해서는 예측 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타났으나, 정체전선과 같이 국지적으로 발생하는 강우사상의 경우 예측 오차가 많이 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 홍수예측 정확도 평가 결과, 선행시간이 증가함에 따라 점점 예측 정확도가 향상되는 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, LDAPS와 MSM 모두 기상 및 수자원간의 연계를 통하여 강우 및 홍수 예측 분야에서의 활용 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 대기
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.411-422
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• 2017

The aim of this research is to review recent trends in weather and climate research in North Korea. We selected North Korean journal 'Weather and Hydrology' for the last 10 years (2007-2016), and identified trends in research subject, researchers, and affiliations. Furthermore, we analyzed the major achievements and trends by research sector. Our main results are same as follows. The largest number of researches on 'modernization and informatization on prediction' have been carried out in North Korea's recent meteorological and climatological research. This could be implicated that the scope of national science policy directly affected the promotion of specific research field. Especially, North Korea was evaluated to be concentrating its efforts on numerical model research and development. The numerical model which enables very short-term (6 hours) rainfall forecast which using ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method (4D EnKF) was developed. In addition, development of automatic weather system and improvement of the data transfer system were promoted. However, the result reveals that the automated real-time data transfer system was not fully equipped yet. These results could be used as a basic data for meteorological cooperation between South and North Korea.

• 대기
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.457-475
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• 2023

Accurately predicting localized heavy rainfall is challenging without high-resolution mesoscale cloud information in the numerical model's initial field, as precipitation intensity and amount vary significantly across regions. In the Korean Peninsula, the radar observation network covers the entire country, providing high-resolution data on hydrometeors which is suitable for data assimilation (DA). During the pre-processing stage, radar reflectivity is classified into hydrometeors (e.g., rain, snow, graupel) using the background temperature field. The mixing ratio of each hydrometeor is converted and inputted into a numerical model. Moreover, assimilating saturated water vapor mixing ratio and decomposing radar radial velocity into a three-dimensional wind vector improves the atmospheric dynamic field. This study presents radar DA experiments using a numerical prediction model to enhance the wind, water vapor, and hydrometeor mixing ratio information. The impact of radar DA on precipitation prediction is analyzed separately for each radar component. Assimilating radial velocity improves the dynamic field, while assimilating hydrometeor mixing ratio reduces the spin-up period in cloud microphysical processes, simulating initial precipitation growth. Assimilating water vapor mixing ratio further captures a moist atmospheric environment, maintaining continuous growth of hydrometeors, resulting in concentrated heavy rainfall. Overall, the radar DA experiment showed a 32.78% improvement in precipitation forecast accuracy compared to experiments without DA across four cases. Further research in related fields is necessary to improve predictions of mesoscale heavy rainfall in South Korea, mitigating its impact on human life and property.

• 대기
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.419-432
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• 2014

An assessment of typhoon intensity predictability of numerical models was conducted to develop the typhoon intensity forecast guidance comparing with the RSMC-Tokyo best track data. Root mean square error, box plot analysis and time series of wind speed comparison were performed to evaluate the each model error level. One of noticeable fact is that all models have a trend of error increase as typhoon becomes stronger and the Global Forecast System showed the best performance among the models. In the detailed analysis in two typhoon cases [Danas (1324) and Haiyan (1330)], GFS showed good performance in maximum wind speed and intensity trend in the best track, however it could not simulate well the rapid intensity increasing period. On the other hand, ECMWF and Hurricane-WRF overestimated the typhoon intensity but simulated track trend well.

• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.299-316
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• 2008

The intensive upper-air observation network was organized over southwestern region of the Korean Peninsula during the Korea Enhanced Observing Program in 2005 (KEOP-2005). In order to examine the effect of additional upper-air observation on the numerical weather forecasting, three Observing System Experiments (OSEs) using Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with KEOP-2005 data are conducted. Cold start case with KEOP-2005 data presents a remarkable predictability difference with only conventional observation data in the downstream and along the Changma front area. The sensitivity of the predictability tends to decrease under the stable atmosphere. Our results indicates that the effect of intensive observation plays a role in the forecasting of the sensitive area in the numerical model, especially under the unstable atmospheric conditions. When the intensive upper-air observation data (KEOP-2005 data) are included in the OSEs, the predictability of precipitation is partially improved. Especially, when KEOP-2005 data are assimilated at 6-hour interval, the predictability on the heavy rainfall showing higher Critical Success Index (CSI) is highly improved. Therefore it is found that KEOP-2005 data play an important role in improving the position and intensity of the simulated precipitation system.

• 대기
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.171-186
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• 2013

Recently, the number of observations used in a data assimilation system is increasing due to the enormous amount of observations, including satellite data. However, it is not clear that all of these observations are always beneficial to the performance of the numerical weather prediction (NWP). Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effect of observations on these forecasts so that the observations can be used more usefully in NWP process. In this study, the adjoint-based Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (FSO) method with the KMA Unified Model (UM) is applied to two high-impact weather events which occurred in summer and winter in Korea in an effort to investigate the effects of observations on the forecasts of these events. The total dry energy norm is used as a response function to calculate the adjoint sensitivity. For the summer case, TEMP observations have the greatest total impact while BOGUS shows the greatest impact per observation for all of the 24-, 36-, and 48-hour forecasts. For the winter case, aircraft, ATOVS, and ESA have the greatest total impact for the 24-, 36-, and 48-hour forecasts respectively, while ESA has the greatest impact per observation. Most of the observation effects are horizontally located upwind or in the vicinity of the Korean peninsula. The fraction of beneficial observations is less than 50%, which is less than the results in previous studies. As an additional experiment, the total moist energy norm is used as a response function to measure the sensitivity of 24-hour forecast error to observations. The characteristics of the observation impact with the moist energy response function are generally similar to those with the dry energy response function. However, the ATOVS observations were found to be sensitive to the response function, showing a positive (a negative) effect on the forecast when using the dry (moist) norm for the summer case. For the winter case, the dry and moist energy norm experiments show very similar results because the adjoint of KMA UM does not calculate the specific humidity of ice properly such that the dry and moist energy norms are very similar except for the humidity in air that is very low in winter.