• Title/Summary/Keyword: numeric prediction algorithm

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Learning Wind Speed Forecast Model based on Numeric Prediction Algorithm (수치 예측 알고리즘 기반의 풍속 예보 모델 학습)

  • Kim, Se-Young;Kim, Jeong-Min;Ryu, Kwang-Ryel
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2015
  • Technologies of wind power generation for development of alternative energy technology have been accumulated over the past 20 years. Wind power generation is environmentally friendly and economical because it uses the wind blowing in nature as energy resource. In order to operate wind power generation efficiently, it is necessary to accurately predict wind speed changing every moment in nature. It is important not only averagely how well to predict wind speed but also to minimize the largest absolute error between real value and prediction value of wind speed. In terms of generation operating plan, minimizing the largest absolute error plays an important role for building flexible generation operating plan because the difference between predicting power and real power causes economic loss. In this paper, we propose a method of wind speed prediction using numeric prediction algorithm-based wind speed forecast model made to analyze the wind speed forecast given by the Meteorological Administration and pattern value for considering seasonal property of wind speed as well as changing trend of past wind speed. The wind speed forecast given by the Meteorological Administration is the forecast in respect to comparatively wide area including wind generation farm. But it contributes considerably to make accuracy of wind speed prediction high. Also, the experimental results demonstrate that as the rate of wind is analyzed in more detail, the greater accuracy will be obtained.

A Study on the Recommendation Algorithm based on Trust/Distrust Relationship Network Analysis (사용자 간 신뢰·불신 관계 네트워크 분석 기반 추천 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Noh, Heeryong;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.169-185
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    • 2017
  • This study proposes a novel recommendation algorithm that reflects the results from trust/distrust network analysis as a solution to enhance prediction accuracy of recommender systems. The recommendation algorithm of our study is based on memory-based collaborative filtering (CF), which is the most popular recommendation algorithm. But, unlike conventional CF, our proposed algorithm considers not only the correlation of the rating patterns between users, but also the results from trust/distrust relationship network analysis (e.g. who are the most trusted/distrusted users?, whom are the target user trust or distrust?) when calculating the similarity between users. To validate the performance of the proposed algorithm, we applied it to a real-world dataset that contained the trust/distrust relationships among users as well as their numeric ratings on movies. As a result, we found that the proposed algorithm outperformed the conventional CF with statistical significance. Also, we found that distrust relationship was more important than trust relationship in measuring similarities between users. This implies that we need to be more careful about negative relationship rather than positive one when tracking and managing social relationships among users.

UAS Automatic Control Parameter Tuning System using Machine Learning Module (기계학습 알고리즘을 이용한 UAS 제어계수 실시간 자동 조정 시스템)

  • Moon, Mi-Sun;Song, Kang;Song, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.874-881
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    • 2010
  • A automatic flight control system(AFCS) of UAS needs to control its flight path along target path exactly as adjusts flight coefficient itself depending on static or dynamic changes of airplane's features such as type, size or weight. In this paper, we propose system which tunes control gain autonomously depending on change of airplane's feature in flight as adding MLM(Machine Learning Module) on AFCS. MLM is designed with Linear Regression algorithm and Reinforcement Learning and it includes EvM(Evaluation Module) which evaluates learned control gain from MLM and verified system. This system is tested on beaver FDC simulator and we present its analysed result.

Social Network-based Hybrid Collaborative Filtering using Genetic Algorithms (유전자 알고리즘을 활용한 소셜네트워크 기반 하이브리드 협업필터링)

  • Noh, Heeryong;Choi, Seulbi;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.19-38
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    • 2017
  • Collaborative filtering (CF) algorithm has been popularly used for implementing recommender systems. Until now, there have been many prior studies to improve the accuracy of CF. Among them, some recent studies adopt 'hybrid recommendation approach', which enhances the performance of conventional CF by using additional information. In this research, we propose a new hybrid recommender system which fuses CF and the results from the social network analysis on trust and distrust relationship networks among users to enhance prediction accuracy. The proposed algorithm of our study is based on memory-based CF. But, when calculating the similarity between users in CF, our proposed algorithm considers not only the correlation of the users' numeric rating patterns, but also the users' in-degree centrality values derived from trust and distrust relationship networks. In specific, it is designed to amplify the similarity between a target user and his or her neighbor when the neighbor has higher in-degree centrality in the trust relationship network. Also, it attenuates the similarity between a target user and his or her neighbor when the neighbor has higher in-degree centrality in the distrust relationship network. Our proposed algorithm considers four (4) types of user relationships - direct trust, indirect trust, direct distrust, and indirect distrust - in total. And, it uses four adjusting coefficients, which adjusts the level of amplification / attenuation for in-degree centrality values derived from direct / indirect trust and distrust relationship networks. To determine optimal adjusting coefficients, genetic algorithms (GA) has been adopted. Under this background, we named our proposed algorithm as SNACF-GA (Social Network Analysis - based CF using GA). To validate the performance of the SNACF-GA, we used a real-world data set which is called 'Extended Epinions dataset' provided by 'trustlet.org'. It is the data set contains user responses (rating scores and reviews) after purchasing specific items (e.g. car, movie, music, book) as well as trust / distrust relationship information indicating whom to trust or distrust between users. The experimental system was basically developed using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), but we also used UCINET 6 for calculating the in-degree centrality of trust / distrust relationship networks. In addition, we used Palisade Software's Evolver, which is a commercial software implements genetic algorithm. To examine the effectiveness of our proposed system more precisely, we adopted two comparison models. The first comparison model is conventional CF. It only uses users' explicit numeric ratings when calculating the similarities between users. That is, it does not consider trust / distrust relationship between users at all. The second comparison model is SNACF (Social Network Analysis - based CF). SNACF differs from the proposed algorithm SNACF-GA in that it considers only direct trust / distrust relationships. It also does not use GA optimization. The performances of the proposed algorithm and comparison models were evaluated by using average MAE (mean absolute error). Experimental result showed that the optimal adjusting coefficients for direct trust, indirect trust, direct distrust, indirect distrust were 0, 1.4287, 1.5, 0.4615 each. This implies that distrust relationships between users are more important than trust ones in recommender systems. From the perspective of recommendation accuracy, SNACF-GA (Avg. MAE = 0.111943), the proposed algorithm which reflects both direct and indirect trust / distrust relationships information, was found to greatly outperform a conventional CF (Avg. MAE = 0.112638). Also, the algorithm showed better recommendation accuracy than the SNACF (Avg. MAE = 0.112209). To confirm whether these differences are statistically significant or not, we applied paired samples t-test. The results from the paired samples t-test presented that the difference between SNACF-GA and conventional CF was statistical significant at the 1% significance level, and the difference between SNACF-GA and SNACF was statistical significant at the 5%. Our study found that the trust/distrust relationship can be important information for improving performance of recommendation algorithms. Especially, distrust relationship information was found to have a greater impact on the performance improvement of CF. This implies that we need to have more attention on distrust (negative) relationships rather than trust (positive) ones when tracking and managing social relationships between users.

Stock prediction using combination of BERT sentiment Analysis and Macro economy index

  • Jang, Euna;Choi, HoeRyeon;Lee, HongChul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2020
  • The stock index is used not only as an economic indicator for a country, but also as an indicator for investment judgment, which is why research into predicting the stock index is ongoing. The task of predicting the stock price index involves technical, basic, and psychological factors, and it is also necessary to consider complex factors for prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the model for predicting the stock price index by selecting and reflecting technical and auxiliary factors that affect the fluctuation of the stock price according to the stock price. Most of the existing studies related to this are forecasting studies that use news information or macroeconomic indicators that create market fluctuations, or reflect only a few combinations of indicators. In this paper, this we propose to present an effective combination of the news information sentiment analysis and various macroeconomic indicators in order to predict the US Dow Jones Index. After Crawling more than 93,000 business news from the New York Times for two years, the sentiment results analyzed using the latest natural language processing techniques BERT and NLTK, along with five macroeconomic indicators, gold prices, oil prices, and five foreign exchange rates affecting the US economy Combination was applied to the prediction algorithm LSTM, which is known to be the most suitable for combining numeric and text information. As a result of experimenting with various combinations, the combination of DJI, NLTK, BERT, OIL, GOLD, and EURUSD in the DJI index prediction yielded the smallest MSE value.