• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.179-183
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• 2015

Even though state-of-the-art general circulation models is improved step by step, the seasonal predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon still remains poor. In contrast, the seasonal predictability of western North Pacific and Indian monsoon region using dynamic models is relatively high. This study builds canonical correlation analysis model for seasonal prediction using wind fields over western North Pacific and Indian Ocean from the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), and then assesses the predictability of so-called hybrid model. In addition, we suggest improvement method for forecast skill by introducing the lagged ensemble technique.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.295-308
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• 2015

Based on the CMIP5 historical simulation datasets, we assessed the performance of state-of-the-art climate models in respect to the relationship between interannual variabilities of the North Pacific synoptic eddy (NPSE) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Observation (ERA-Interim) shows a high negative correlation (-0.73) between the interannual variabilities of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) intensity and North Pacific synoptic eddy (NPSE) activity during the period of 1979~2005. Namely, a stronger (weaker) EAWM is related to a weaker (stronger) synoptic eddy activities over the North Pacific. This strong reverse relationship can be well explained by latitudinal distributions of the surface temperature anomalies over East Asian continent, which leads the variation of local baroclinicity and significantly weakens the baroclinic wave activities over the northern latitudes of $40^{\circ}N$. This feature is supported by the distribution of the meridional heat flux (${\overline{{\nu}^{\prime}{\theta}^{\prime}}}$) anomalies, which have negative (positive) values along the latitudes $40{\sim}50^{\circ}N$ for strong(weak) EAWM years. In this study, the historical simulations by 11 CMIP5 climate models (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M) are analyzed for DJF of 1979~2005. Correlation coefficient between the two phenomena is -0.59, which is comparable to that of observation. Model-to-model variation in this relationship is relatively large as the range of correlation coefficient is between -0.76 (HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-AO) and -0.33 (MRI-CGCM3). But, these reverse relationships are shown in all models without any exception. We found that the multi-model ensemble is qualitatively similar to the observation in reasoning (that is, latitudinal distribution of surface temperature anomalies, variation of local baroclinicity and meridional heat flux by synoptic eddies) of the reverse relationship. However, the uncertainty for weak EAWM is much larger than strong EAWM. In conclusion, we suggest that CMIP5 models as an ensemble have a good performance in the simulation of EAWM, NPSE, and their relationship.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.22
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• pp.9955-9960
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• 2014

Background: Promoter hypermethylation is a common event in human cancer. O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) is a gene involved in DNA repair, which is methylated in a variety of cancers. We aimed to explore the methylation status of MGMT gene among the North Eastern population where esophageal cancer incidence and exposure to carcinogens like nitrosamines is high. Materials and Methods: A total of 100 newly diagnosed esophageal cancer cases along with equal number of age, sex and ethnicity matched controls were included in this study. Methylation specific PCR was used to determine the MGMT methylation status in serum samples. Results: Aberrant promoter methylation of the MGMT gene was detected in 70% of esophageal cancer cases. Hypermethylation of MGMT gene was found to be influenced by environmental factors like betel quid and tobacco which contain potent carcinogens like nitrosamines. Tobacco chewing and tobacco smoking habit synergistically with MGMT methylation elevated the risk for esophageal cancer development [adjusted OR=5.02, 95% CI=1.35-18.74; p=0.010 for tobacco chewing and Adjusted OR=3.00, 95% CI=1.22-7.36; p=0.014 for tobacco smoking]. Conclusions: Results suggest that the DNA hypermethylation of MGMT is an important mechanism for MGMT gene silencing resulting in esophageal cancer development and is influenced by the environmental factors. Thus MGMT hypermethylation can be used as a biomarker for esophageal cancer in high incidence region of North East India.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.539-550
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• 2009

This study found that tropical cyclones (TCs) formed for fall in 2007 over the western North Pacific were distributed in high-latitudes comparing to 56-year (1951-2006) climatological mean. The frequency and latitude of TC genesis became higher than 56-year climatological mean from September onward in 2007 and all the TCs that formed to the north of 20$^{\circ}$N was also distributed after September in 2007. These characteristics of TC genesis for fall in 2007 could be confirmed through analyzing various variables, such as a large-scale atmospheric circulation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), vertical zonal wind shear, and sea surface temperature (SST). On the other hand, a frequency of the TC that occurred to the north of 200N showed a clear interdecadal variation and its decreasing trend was distinctive in recent years. Its intensity was also weaker that TCs that did to the south of 20$^{\circ}$N. However, a latitude of TC genesis showed an increasing trend until recent years, whose variation was consistent with trend that through a SST analysis, warm SST went north in recent years.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.11
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• pp.7039-7043
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• 2013

A liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrrini (OV), is the major cause of the high incidence of cholangiocarcinoma in North-eastern Thailand. The prevalence of OV infection remains high in various parts of the country, especially in wetland rural areas where a large proportion of the community work in agriculture and continue the traditional practice of eating raw or uncooked cyprinoid fish products. The national control program seems to have had little impact in many of these areas, and it has been difficult to make precise assessments of the overall effectiveness of the program. Therefore there is a need for a community-based approach to prevent infection with the parasite, ideally involving as many players as possible. Here we document an attempt to assess the best means to prevention on the basis of a community intervention in three villages in north-east Thailand, with participation of representatives of Health Promotion Hospitals of the Ministry of Public Health with dedicated staff, but also school teachers, independent government sponsored village health volunteers, and housewives responsible for cooking and diet selection. An action plan was followed, allowing detailed discussions of practical proposals, their introduction and then repeated reflection and further proposals at the individual village level.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.345-356
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• 2017

It is important to understand the variability of tropospheric ozone since it is both a major pollutant affecting human health and a greenhouse gas influencing global climate. We analyze the characteristics of East Asia tropospheric ozone simulated in a chemistry-climate model. We use a global chemical transport model, driven by the prescribed meteorological fields from an air-sea coupled climate model simulation. Compared with observed data, the ozone simulation shows differences in distribution and concentration levels; in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula, a large error occurred in summer. Our analysis reveals that this bias is mainly due to the difference in atmospheric circulation, as the anomalous southerly winds lead to the decrease in tropospheric ozone in this region. In addition, observational data have shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) reduces tropospheric ozone across the southern China/Korean Peninsula/Japan region. In the model, the ozone changes associated with WNPSH are shifted westward relative to the observations. Our findings suggest that the variations in WNPSH should be considered in predicting tropospheric ozone concentrations.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.533-540
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• 2014

Statistical forecast models for the prediction of the summertime Changma precipitation have been developed in this study. As effective predictors for the Changma precipitation, the springtime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic (NA1), the North Pacific (NPC) and the tropical Pacific Ocean (CNINO) has been suggested in Lee and Seo (2013). To further improve the performance of the statistical prediction scheme, we select other potential predictors and construct 2 additional statistical models. The selected predictors are the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and the Bering Sea (BS) SST anomalies, and the spring Eurasian snow cover anomaly (EUSC). Then, using the total three statistical prediction models, a simple ensemble-mean prediction is performed. The resulting correlation skill score reaches as high as ~0.90 for the last 21 years, which is ~16% increase in the skill compared to the prediction model by Lee and Seo (2013). The EUSC and BS predictors are related to a strengthening of the Okhotsk high, leading to an enhancement of the Changma front. The NIO predictor induces the cyclonic anomalies to the southwest of the Korean peninsula and southeasterly flows toward the peninsula, giving rise to an increase in the Changma precipitation.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.185-195
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• 2023

The prolonged and heavy East Asian summer precipitation in 2020 may have been caused by an enhanced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which requires evaluation using forecast models. We examined the performance of GloSea6, an operational forecast model, in predicting the East Asian summer precipitation during July 2020, and investigated the role of MJO in the extreme rainfall event. Two experiments, CON and EXP, were conducted using different convection schemes, 6A and 5A, respectively to simulate various aspects of MJO. The EXP runs yielded stronger forecasts of East Asian precipitation for July 2020 than the CON runs, probably due to the prominent MJO realization in the former experiment. The stronger MJO created stronger moist southerly winds associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high, which led to increased precipitation. The strengthening of the MJO was found to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian summer precipitation. However, it is important to note that this study does not discuss the impact of changes in the convection scheme on the modulation of MJO. Further research is needed to understand other factors that could strengthen the MJO and improve the forecast.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.1993-1999
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• 2014

Background: This study aimed to explore the role of XRCC1 (Arg399Gln) and XPD (Lys751Gln) gene polymorphisms, lifestyle and environmental factors as well as their possible interactions in propensity to develop lung cancer in a population with high incidence from North East India. Materials and Methods: A total of 272 lung cancer cases and 544 controls were collected and XRCC1 (Arg399Gln) and XPD (Lys751Gln) genotypes were analyzed using a polymerase chain reaction based restriction fragment length polymorphism assay. Conditional multiple logistic regression analysis was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals after adjusting for confounding factors. Results: The combined Gln/Gln genotype of XRCC1 and XPD genes (OR=2.78, CI=1.05-7.38; p=0.040) was significantly associated with increased risk for lung cancer. Interaction of XRCC1Gln/Gln genotype with exposure of wood combustion (OR=2.56, CI=1.16-5.66; p=0.020), exposure of cooking oil fumes (OR=3.45, CI=1.39-8.58; p=0.008) and tobacco smoking (OR=2.54, CI=1.21-5.32; p=0.014) and interaction of XPD with betel quid chewing (OR=2.31, CI=1.23-4.32; p=0.009) and tobacco smoking (OR=2.13, CI=1.12-4.05; p=0.022) were found to be significantly associated with increased risk for lung cancer. Conclusions: Gln/Gln alleles of both XRCC1 and XPD genes appear to amplify the effects of household exposure, smoking and betel quid chewing on lung cancer risk in the study population.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.24
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• pp.10653-10658
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• 2015

Background: A very high incidence of lung cancer is observed in Mizoram and Manipur, North East India. We conducted a population based case control study to establish associations of p53 codon 72 polymorphisms and interactions with environmental factors for this high incidence. Material and Methods: A total of 272 lung cancer cases and 544 controls matched for age (${\pm}5years$), sex and ethnicity were collected and p53 codon 72 polymorphism genotypes were analyzed using a polymerase chain based restriction fragment length polymorphism assay. We used conditional multiple logistic regression analysis to calculate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals after adjusting for confounding factors. Results: p53 Pro/Pro genotype was significantly associated with increased risk of lung cancer in the study population (adjusted OR=2.14, CI=1.35-3.38, p=0.001). Interactions of the p53 Pro/Pro genotype with exposure to wood smoke (adjusted OR=3.60, CI=1.85-6.98, p<0.001) and cooking oil fumes (adjusted OR=3.27, CI=1.55-6.87, p=0.002), betel quid chewing (adjusted OR=3.85, CI=1.96-7.55, p<0.001), tobacco smoking (adjusted OR=4.42, CI=2.27-8.63, p<0.001) and alcohol consumption (adjusted OR=3.31, CI=1.10-10.03, p=0.034) were significant regarding the increased risk of lung cancer in the study population. Conclusions: The present study provided preliminary evidence that a p53 codon 72 polymorphism may effect lung cancer risk in the study population, interacting synergistically with environmental factors.