• Title/Summary/Keyword: network traffic prediction

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Analysis and Prediction Methods of Marine Accident Patterns related to Vessel Traffic using Long Short-Term Memory Networks (장단기 기억 신경망을 활용한 선박교통 해양사고 패턴 분석 및 예측)

  • Jang, Da-Un;Kim, Joo-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.780-790
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    • 2022
  • Quantitative risk levels must be presented by analyzing the causes and consequences of accidents and predicting the occurrence patterns of the accidents. For the analysis of marine accidents related to vessel traffic, research on the traffic such as collision risk analysis and navigational path finding has been mainly conducted. The analysis of the occurrence pattern of marine accidents has been presented according to the traditional statistical analysis. This study intends to present a marine accident prediction model using the statistics on marine accidents related to vessel traffic. Statistical data from 1998 to 2021, which can be accumulated by month and hourly data among the Korean domestic marine accidents, were converted into structured time series data. The predictive model was built using a long short-term memory network, which is a representative artificial intelligence model. As a result of verifying the performance of the proposed model through the validation data, the RMSEs were noted to be 52.5471 and 126.5893 in the initial neural network model, and as a result of the updated model with observed datasets, the RMSEs were improved to 31.3680 and 36.3967, respectively. Based on the proposed model, the occurrence pattern of marine accidents could be predicted by learning the features of various marine accidents. In further research, a quantitative presentation of the risk of marine accidents and the development of region-based hazard maps are required.

A New Policing Method for Markovian Traffic Descriptors of VBR MPEG Video Sources over ATM Networks (ATM 망에서의 마코프 모델기반 VBR MPEG 비디오 트래픽 기술자에 대한 새로운 Policing 방법)

  • 유상조;홍성훈;김성대
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.25 no.1A
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    • pp.142-155
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we propose an efficient policing mechanism for Markov model-based traffic descriptors of VBR MPEG video traffic. A VBR video sequence is described by a set of traffic descriptors using a scene-basedMarkov model to the network for the effective resource allocation and accurate QoS prediction. The networkmonitors the input traffic from the source using a proposed new policing method. for policing the steady statetransition probability of scene states, we define two representative monitoring parameters (mean holding andrecurrence time) for each state. For frame level cell rate policing of each scene state, accumulated average cellrates for the frame types are compared with the model parameters. We propose an exponential bounding functionto accommodate dynanic behaviors during the transient period. Our simulation results show that the proposedpolicing mechanism for Markovian traffic descriptors monitors the sophisticated traffic such as MPEG videoeffectively and well protects network resources from the nalicious or misbehaved traffic.

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A Study on the Standadizations of Clustering Algorithm for a Traffic Control of Wireless Ad Hoc Network (이동 에드혹 무선망에서의 라우팅 알고리즘 표준화연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Chul;Lee, Han-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2007.06a
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    • pp.73-75
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    • 2007
  • The Ad Hoc Network Interfaces has been tremendously useful in doing capacity planning and performance prediction. However, in many real-world cases. it has found that the predicted results form a queuing analysis differ substantially from the actual observed performance. Specially, in recent years, a number of studies have demonstrated that for some environments, the traffic pattern is self-similar rather than Poisson. In this paper, we study these Clustering characteristics and the definition of standadization processes.

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A Study on the Insider Behavior Analysis Using Machine Learning for Detecting Information Leakage (정보 유출 탐지를 위한 머신 러닝 기반 내부자 행위 분석 연구)

  • Kauh, Janghyuk;Lee, Dongho
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we design and implement PADIL(Prediction And Detection of Information Leakage) system that predicts and detect information leakage behavior of insider by analyzing network traffic and applying a variety of machine learning methods. we defined the five-level information leakage model(Reconnaissance, Scanning, Access and Escalation, Exfiltration, Obfuscation) by referring to the cyber kill-chain model. In order to perform the machine learning for detecting information leakage, PADIL system extracts various features by analyzing the network traffic and extracts the behavioral features by comparing it with the personal profile information and extracts information leakage level features. We tested various machine learning methods and as a result, the DecisionTree algorithm showed excellent performance in information leakage detection and we showed that performance can be further improved by fine feature selection.

Traffic Speed Prediction Based on Graph Neural Networks for Intelligent Transportation System (지능형 교통 시스템을 위한 Graph Neural Networks 기반 교통 속도 예측)

  • Kim, Sunghoon;Park, Jonghyuk;Choi, Yerim
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.70-85
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    • 2021
  • Deep learning methodology, which has been actively studied in recent years, has improved the performance of artificial intelligence. Accordingly, systems utilizing deep learning have been proposed in various industries. In traffic systems, spatio-temporal graph modeling using GNN was found to be effective in predicting traffic speed. Still, it has a disadvantage that the model is trained inefficiently due to the memory bottleneck. Therefore, in this study, the road network is clustered through the graph clustering algorithm to reduce memory bottlenecks and simultaneously achieve superior performance. In order to verify the proposed method, the similarity of road speed distribution was measured using Jensen-Shannon divergence based on the analysis result of Incheon UTIC data. Then, the road network was clustered by spectrum clustering based on the measured similarity. As a result of the experiments, it was found that when the road network was divided into seven networks, the memory bottleneck was alleviated while recording the best performance compared to the baselines with MAE of 5.52km/h.

Traffic Flow Control Channels Analysis Using Symmetry Link Network in Wireless Communication (무선통신에서 대칭링크 네트워크를 이용한 트래픽 흐름제어 채널분석)

  • Park, Kwang-Chae
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.1811-1818
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    • 2009
  • This paper is about the research to maintain and enhance the flow of data of the wireless traffic control. Various types of burst traffic that were found at TCP window flow control have been removed or mitigated using the two-way traffic control. Currently, TCP ACK Compression problem appears during the transmission of the wireless communication control channel because the queues are mostly located at the end system. Therefore, in this paper, the periodic bursty characterist of the source IP queue wilt be analyzed to predict the maximum value of queues. And then the prediction tool will be applied to wireless communication traffic control to handle symmetric traffic as to increase the throughput and improve the performance.

A Travel Speed Prediction Model for Incident Detection based on Traffic CCTV (돌발상황 검지를 위한 교통 CCTV 기반 통행속도 추정 모델)

  • Ki, Yong-Kul;Kim, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2020
  • Travel speed is an important parameter for measuring road traffic and incident detection system. In this paper I suggests a model developed for estimating reliable and accurate average roadway link travel speeds using image processing sensor. This method extracts the vehicles from the video image from CCTV, tracks the moving vehicles using deep neural network, and extracts traffic information such as link travel speeds and volume. The algorithm estimates link travel speeds using a robust data-fusion procedure to provide accurate link travel speeds and traffic information to the public. In the field tests, the new model performed better than existing methods.

Understanding Watching Patterns of Live TV Programs on Mobile Devices: A Content Centric Perspective

  • Li, Yuheng;Zhao, Qianchuan
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.3635-3654
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    • 2015
  • With the rapid development of smart devices and mobile Internet, the video application plays an increasingly important role on mobile devices. Understanding user behavior patterns is critical for optimized operation of mobile live streaming systems. On the other hand, volume based billing models on cloud services make it easier for video service providers to scale their services as well as to reduce the waste from oversized service capacities. In this paper, the watching behaviors of a commercial mobile live streaming system are studied in a content-centric manner. Our analysis captures the intrinsic correlation existing between popularity and watching intensity of programs due to the synchronized watching behaviors with program schedule. The watching pattern is further used to estimate traffic volume generated by the program, which is useful on data volume capacity reservation and billing strategy selection in cloud services. The traffic range of programs is estimated based on a naive popularity prediction. In cross validation, the traffic ranges of around 94% of programs are successfully estimated. In high popularity programs (>20000 viewers), the overestimated traffic is less than 15% of real happened traffic when using upper bound to estimate program traffic.

System Identification of Internet transmission rate control factors

  • Yoo, Sung-Goo;Kim, Young-Seok;Chong, Kil-To
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.652-657
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    • 2004
  • As the real-time multimedia applications through Internet increase, the bandwidth available to TCP connections is oppressed by the UDP traffic, result in the performance of overall system is extremely deteriorated. Therefore, developing a new transmission protocol is necessary. The TCP-friendly algorithm is an example meeting this necessity. The TCP-friendly (TFRC) is an UDP-based protocol that controls the transmission rate based on the available round transmission time (RTT) and the packet loss rate (PLR). In the data transmission processing, transmission rate is determined based on the conditions of the previous transmission period. If the one-step ahead predicted values of the control factors are available, the performance will be improved significantly. This paper proposes a prediction model of transmission rate control factors that will be used for the transmission rate control, which improves the performance of the networks. The model developed through this research is predicting one-step ahead variables of RTT and PLR. A multiplayer perceptron neural network is used as the prediction model and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used for the training. The values of RTT and PLR were collected using TFRC protocol in the real system. The obtained prediction model is validated using new data set and the results show that the obtained model predicts the factors accurately.

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Modeling of Multimedia Internet Transmission Rate Control Factors Using Neural Networks (멀티미디어 인터넷 전송을 위한 전송률 제어 요소의 신경회로망 모델링)

  • Chong Kil-to;Yoo Sung-Goo
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.385-391
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    • 2005
  • As the Internet real-time multimedia applications increases, the bandwidth available to TCP connections is oppressed by the UDP traffic, result in the performance of overall system is extremely deteriorated. Therefore, developing a new transmission protocol is necessary. The TCP-friendly algorithm is an example satisfying this necessity. The TCP-Friendly Rate Control (TFRC) is an UDP-based protocol that controls the transmission rate that is based on the available round trip time (RTT) and the packet loss rate (PLR). In the data transmission processing, transmission rate is determined based on the conditions of the previous transmission period. If the one-step ahead predicted values of the control factors are available, the performance will be improved significantly. This paper proposes a prediction model of transmission rate control factors that will be used in the transmission rate control, which improves the performance of the networks. The model developed through this research is predicting one-step ahead variables of RTT and PLR. A multiplayer perceptron neural network is used as the prediction model and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used for the training. The values of RTT and PLR were collected using TFRC protocol in the real system. The obtained prediction model is validated using new data set and the results show that the obtained model predicts the factors accurately.