• Title/Summary/Keyword: network effect

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Parameters Estimation of Clark Model based on Width Function (폭 함수를 기반으로 한 Clark 모형의 매개변수 추정)

  • Park, Sang Hyun;Kim, Joo-Cheol;Jung, Kwansue
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.597-611
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents the methodology for construction of time-area curve via the width function and thereby rational estimation of time of concentration and storage coefficient of Clark model within the framework of method of moments. To this end time-area curve is built by rescaling the grid-based width function under the assumption of pure translation and then the analytical expressions for two parameters of Clark model are proposed in terms of method of moments. The methodology in this study based on the analytical expressions mentioned before is compared with both (1) the traditional optimization method of Clark model provided by HEC-1 in which the symmetric time-area curve is used and the difference between observed and simulated hydrographs is minimized (2) and the same optimization method but replacing time-area curve with rescaled width function in respect of peak discharge and time to peak of simulated direct runoff hydrographs and their efficiency coefficient relative to the observed ones. The following points are worth of emphasizing: (1) The optimization method by HEC-1 with rescaled width function among others results in the parameters well reflecting the observed runoff hydrograph with respect to peak discharge coordinates and coefficient of efficiency; (2) For the better application of Clark model it is recommended to use the time-area curve capable of accounting for irregular drainage structure of a river basin such as rescaled width function instead of symmetric time-area curve by HEC-1; (3) Moment-based methodology with rescaled width function developed in this study also gives rise to satisfactory simulation results in terms of peak discharge coordinates and coefficient of efficiency. Especially the mean velocities estimated from this method, characterizing the translation effect of time-area curve, are well consistent with the field surveying results for the points of interest in this study; (4) It is confirmed that the moment-based methodology could be an effective tool for quantitative assessment of translation and storage effects of natural river basin; (5) The runoff hydrographs simulated by the moment-based methodology tend to be more right skewed relative to the observed ones and have lower peaks. It is inferred that this is due to consideration of only one mean velocity in the parameter estimation. Further research is required to combine the hydrodynamic heterogeneity between hillslope and channel network into the construction of time-area curve.

Design and Analysis of Online Advertising Expenditure Model based on Coupon Download (쿠폰 다운로드를 기준으로 하는 온라인 광고비 모델의 설계 및 분석)

  • Jun, Jung-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Jun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2010
  • In offline environment, unlike traditional advertising model through TV, newspaper, and radio, online advertising model draws instantaneous responses from potential consumers and it is convenient to assess. This kind of characteristics of Internet advertising model has driven the growth of advertising model among various Internet business models. There are, conventionally classified, CPM (Cost Per Mile), CPC (Cost Per Click), and CPS (Cost Per Sales) models as Internet advertising expenditure model. These can be examined in manners regarding risks that stakeholders should stand and degree of responsibility. CPM model that is based on number of advertisement exposure is mechanically exposed to users but not actually recognized by users resulting in risk of wasted expenditure by advertisers without any advertising effect. While on aspect of media, CPS model that is based on conversion action is the most risky model because of the conversion action such as product purchase is determined by capability of advertisers not that of media. In this regard, while there are issue of CPM and CPS models disadvantageously affecting only one side of Internet advertising business model value network, CPC model has been evaluated as reasonable both to advertisers and media, and occupied the largest segment of Internet advertising market. However, CPC model also can cause fraudulent behavior such as click fraud because of the competition or dishonest amount of advertising expenditure. On the user aspect, unintentionally accessed advertisements can lead to more inappropriate expenditure from advertisers. In this paper, we suggest "CPCD"(Cost Per Coupon Download) model. This goes beyond simple clicking of advertisements and advertising expenditure is exerted when users download a coupon from advertisers, which is a concept in between CPC and CPS models. To achieve the purpose, we describe the scenario of advertiser perspective, processes, participants and their benefits of CPCD model. Especially, we suggest the new value in online coupon; "possibility of storage" and "complement for delivery to the target group". We also analyze the working condition for advertiser by a comparison of CPC and CPCD models through advertising expenditure simulation. The result of simulation implies that the CPCD model suits more properly to advertisers with medium-low price products rather than that of high priced goods. This denotes that since most of advertisers in CPC model are dealing with medium-low priced products, the result is very interesting. At last, we contemplate applicability of CPCD model in ubiquitous environment.

Various Possibilities of Dispositif Film (디스포지티프 영화의 다양한 가능성)

  • KIM, Chaehee
    • Trans-
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    • v.3
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    • pp.55-86
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    • 2017
  • This study begins with the necessity of the concept of reincarnation of film media and the inclusion of specific tendencies of contemporary films as post - cinema comes. Variable movements around recent films Challenging and experimental films show aesthetics that are difficult to approach with the analysis of classical mise en scene and montage. In this way, I review the dispositif proposed by Martin in films that are puzzling to criticize with the classical conceptual framework. This is because the concept of dispositive is a conceptual pile that extends more than a mise en scene and a montage. Dispositif films tend to be non-reproducible and non-narrative, but not all non-narrativef tendencies are dispositif films. Only the dispositif film is included in the flow. Dispositif movement has increased dramatically in the modern environment on which digital technology is based, but it is not a tendency to be found in any particular age. The movement has been detected in classical films, and the dispositif tendency has continued to exist in avant-garde films in the 1920s and some modernist films. First, for clear conceptualization of cinematic dispositif, this study examines the sources of dispositif debates that are being introduced into film theory today. In this process, the theory of Jean Louis Baudry, Michel Foucault, Agamben, Flusser, and Deleuze will help. The concept of dispositif was discussed by several scholars, including Baudry and Foucault, and today the notion of dispositif is defined across all these definitions. However, these various discussions are distinctly different from the cinematic dispositif or dispositif films that Martin advocates. Martin's proposed concept reminds us of the fundamentals of cinematic aesthetics that have distinguished between the mise-en-scene and the montage. And it will be able to reconsider those concepts and make it possible to view a thing a new light or create new films. The basic implications of dispositif are apparatus as devices, disposition and arrangement, the combination of heterogeneity. Thus, if you define a dispositif film in a word, it is a new 'constraint' consisting of rearrangement and arrangement of the heterogeneous elements that make up the conditions of the classical film. In order for something to become a new design, changes must be made in the arrangement and arrangement of the elements, forces, and forces that make up it. Naturally, the elements encompass both internal and external factors. These dispositif films have a variety of possibilities, such as reflection on the archival possibilities and the role of supervision, the reestablishment of active and creative audience, the reason for the film medium, and the ideological reflection. films can also 'network' quickly and easily with other media faster than any medium and create a new 'devised' aesthetic style. And the dispositif film that makes use of this will be a key keyword in reading the films that present the new trend of modern film. Because dispositif are so comprehensive and have a broad implication, there are certainly areas that are difficult to sophisticate. However this will have a positive effect on the future activation of dispositif studies end for end. Dispositif is difficult to elaborate the concept clearly, so it can be accessed from a wide range of dimensions and has theoretically infinite extensibility. At the beginning and end of the 21st century film, the concept of cinematic dispositif will become a decisive factor to dismantle old film aesthetics.

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Computing the Dosage and Analysing the Effect of Optimal Rechlorination for Adequate Residual Chlorine in Water Distribution System (배.급수관망의 잔류염소 확보를 위한 적정 재염소 주입량 산정 및 효과분석)

  • Kim, Do-Hwan;Lee, Doo-Jin;Kim, Kyoung-Pil;Bae, Chul-Ho;Joo, Hye-Eun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.32 no.10
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    • pp.916-927
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    • 2010
  • In general water treatment process, the disinfection process by chlorine is used to prevent water borne disease and microbial regrowth in water distribution system. Because chlorines were reacted with organic matter, carcinogens such as disinfection by-products (DBPs) were produced in drinking water. Therefore, a suitable injection of chlorine is need to decrease DBPs. Rechlorination in water pipelines or reservoirs are recently increased to secure the residual chlorine in the end of water pipelines. EPANET 2.0 developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is used to compute the optimal chlorine injection in water treatment plant and to predict the dosage of rechlorination into water distribution system. The bulk decay constant ($k_{bulk}$) was drawn by bottle test and the wall decay constant ($k_{wall}$) was derived from using systermatic analysis method for water quality modeling in target region. In order to predict water quality based on hydraulic analysis model, residual chlorine concentration was forecasted in water distribution system. The formation of DBPs such as trihalomethanes (THMs) was verified with chlorine dosage in lab-scale test. The bulk decay constant ($k_{bulk}$) was rapidly decreased with increasing temperature in the early time. In the case of 25 degrees celsius, the bulk decay constant ($k_{bulk}$) decreased over half after 25 hours later. In this study, there were able to calculate about optimal rechlorine dosage and select on profitable sites in the network map.

The Effects of Social Class on the Leisure Activities in Korea: based on types and satisfaction of leisure activities (사회계층 변수에 따른 여가 격차 : 여가 유형과 여가 및 삶의 만족도를 중심으로)

  • Nam, Eun-Young;Choi, Yu-Jung
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.57-84
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    • 2008
  • This study investigates the patterns of leisure in Korea and the effects of social class on the objective and subjective dimension of leisure activities and life satisfaction. A data set of 1376 Korean men and women over 18 years old is analyzed to yield five main results. First, Korean prefers domestic entertainment to outdoor activities as is exemplified by domestic audio-visual entertainment(TV/DVD/VCR) which ranks the highest in the favored leisure activity. Leisure activities are divided into four types; "activity-based", "relationship-based", "alcohol-based", "relaxation". Second, the function of leisure activity is to strengthen relationships. The main purpose of leisure activity is to relax and revitalize, while creating prospective social network ranks next to relax. But the effect of leisure time is often compromised by recurring thoughts related to work. Third, respondents with high educational and economic backgrounds are more likely to engage in "relationship-based," "activity-based", "alcohol-based" leisure type. However, such factors do not influence on "relaxation" type of leisure. While students and housewives rank highest in number of respondents, respondents with managerial/professional or white-collar/semi-professional occupations enjoy more diverse activities. Fourth, the effort to discern the significance of social class with respect to the leisure-activity-index revealed followings; the index scores elevate with higher education, younger age and higher income. Fifth, leisure-activity-index is the most important variable predicting leisure satisfaction. Leisure satisfaction is influenced by gender, age, income and occupation. The younger the age and higher the income, the higher it is the leisure satisfaction. Men are more satisfied with leisure activities than women. Students experience the highest satisfaction with leisure activities while service/sales workers, industrial/technical/blue-collar workers shows the least satisfaction. Also, the number of family members decreases significantly the leisure satisfaction. While "activity-based" leisure induces the highest satisfaction, "alcohol-based" leisure produces the least satisfaction. The frequency and diversity of leisure activities, and "activity-based" leisure incur the most positive effects on the life satisfaction.

The Relationship between Internet Search Volumes and Stock Price Changes: An Empirical Study on KOSDAQ Market (개별 기업에 대한 인터넷 검색량과 주가변동성의 관계: 국내 코스닥시장에서의 산업별 실증분석)

  • Jeon, Saemi;Chung, Yeojin;Lee, Dongyoup
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.81-96
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    • 2016
  • As the internet has become widespread and easy to access everywhere, it is common for people to search information via online search engines such as Google and Naver in everyday life. Recent studies have used online search volume of specific keyword as a measure of the internet users' attention in order to predict disease outbreaks such as flu and cancer, an unemployment rate, and an index of a nation's economic condition, and etc. For stock traders, web search is also one of major information resources to obtain data about individual stock items. Therefore, search volume of a stock item can reflect the amount of investors' attention on it. The investor attention has been regarded as a crucial factor influencing on stock price but it has been measured by indirect proxies such as market capitalization, trading volume, advertising expense, and etc. It has been theoretically and empirically proved that an increase of investors' attention on a stock item brings temporary increase of the stock price and the price recovers in the long run. Recent development of internet environment enables to measure the investor attention directly by the internet search volume of individual stock item, which has been used to show the attention-induced price pressure. Previous studies focus mainly on Dow Jones and NASDAQ market in the United States. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the individual investors' attention measured by the internet search volumes and stock price changes of individual stock items in the KOSDAQ market in Korea, where the proportion of the trades by individual investors are about 90% of the total. In addition, we examine the difference between industries in the influence of investors' attention on stock return. The internet search volume of stocks were gathered from "Naver Trend" service weekly between January 2007 and June 2015. The regression model with the error term with AR(1) covariance structure is used to analyze the data since the weekly prices in a stock item are systematically correlated. The market capitalization, trading volume, the increment of trading volume, and the month in which each trade occurs are included in the model as control variables. The fitted model shows that an abnormal increase of search volume of a stock item has a positive influence on the stock return and the amount of the influence varies among the industry. The stock items in IT software, construction, and distribution industries have shown to be more influenced by the abnormally large internet search volume than the average across the industries. On the other hand, the stock items in IT hardware, manufacturing, entertainment, finance, and communication industries are less influenced by the abnormal search volume than the average. In order to verify price pressure caused by investors' attention in KOSDAQ, the stock return of the current week is modelled using the abnormal search volume observed one to four weeks ahead. On average, the abnormally large increment of the search volume increased the stock return of the current week and one week later, and it decreased the stock return in two and three weeks later. There is no significant relationship with the stock return after 4 weeks. This relationship differs among the industries. An abnormal search volume brings particularly severe price reversal on the stocks in the IT software industry, which are often to be targets of irrational investments by individual investors. An abnormal search volume caused less severe price reversal on the stocks in the manufacturing and IT hardware industries than on average across the industries. The price reversal was not observed in the communication, finance, entertainment, and transportation industries, which are known to be influenced largely by macro-economic factors such as oil price and currency exchange rate. The result of this study can be utilized to construct an intelligent trading system based on the big data gathered from web search engines, social network services, and internet communities. Particularly, the difference of price reversal effect between industries may provide useful information to make a portfolio and build an investment strategy.

The Analysis of Future Promising Industries of Busan and Marine Policy in the Era of the Northern Sea Route (북극항로 시대에 대비한 부산지역의 미래성장 유망산업 및 정책 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Ryoo, Dong-Keun;Nam, Hyung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.175-194
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    • 2014
  • Because the thawing of the Arctic ocean is slowly accelerating due to global warming, recently exploring resources in Arctic ocean and transporting resources by using the North Pole route have been getting spotlight. Since the original route transported by the Suez Canal from Korea to Europe could be shorten about 8,000km in distance(decreased about 38% compared to the original route), which means shortening about 10 voyage dates, it is expected to bring huge logistics cost reduction. Once the North Pole route is commercialized successfully, it would be one of the most important variables that affects future of Busan port and guides for economic development of Busan. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze Busan port and the economic growth of Busan area by researching promising industry, based on the effect of freight transporting by the Northern sea route on the economy of Busan. For this study, questionnaire surveys and interviews were conducted for 64 people of experts in the shipping and port industry, relevant government, and academics. The survey finding shows that port logistics industry is a promising business in Busan in terms of its growth and competitiveness. It is necessary to develop feeder network facilities that prepare for commercialization of the Northern sea route as a short and medium term plan and provide professional manpower training in polar regions. Ship supply business would also play an important role. It is identified that revitalization of shipbuilding and ocean plant industry should be done in terms of Arctic business. With regard to the fishery industry it is found that modernization of fishery ship and development of fishery equipment used in polar areas should be carried out.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Plan to Activate the Archive of Maeul Communities (마을공동체 아카이브 활성화 방안)

  • Sohn, Dong-you;Lee, Kyoung-juhn
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.35
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    • pp.161-206
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    • 2013
  • 'Maeul' is a concept connoting a community. As a place where ordinary people's lives are planned and realized, Maeul is the foundation of their daily lives as well as a place where they work, rest and enjoy pastime activities. In Korea, however, most Maeul communities are dismantled while going though the modern period representing colonization and developmental dictatorship. Growth-oriented industrialization and urbanization turned into such adverse effects as individualization, a sense of loss and a sense of alienation. Recently, through innovations from below, Maeuls are restored, and through Maeul communities restored this way, every Maeul and many researchers carry out activities to build a healthy civil society. This study was conducted on such a background. For a healthy restoration of Maeul communities and a sustainable operation of those communities, it is necessary to establish archives where record the trace of Maeul members' daily lives and relations between those members. The archive of Maeul communities is a place that contains each Maeul's local characteristics as well as human relations as well. It is because this place can be space where Maeul members can record their history, communicate with each other and make a better future. The archive of Maeul communities can be made into various different models, which can be operated by reflecting the identity of a community such as main agents and characteristics, objectives and orientation of objects recorded. Rather than when Maeul communities exist as individuals, they can display more important functions and better effect when they form a network. Therefore, it is needed to provide various and creative methodologies different from the existing government-led record management. Not only on the form of archives, but also all over their functions, such as collection, arrangement, classification, evaluation, management and utilization, Maeul and Maeul residents' norms, orientation and realistic conditions should be thoroughly reflected. Starting from a chance to look back at individuals' lives, the archive of Maeul communities will be a new chapter to restore and build a healthy community in our society and overcome social contradictions from below. Moreover, the archive of Maeul communities has a great significance that it will broaden its prospect creatively with a new paradigm, not only mechanically turning the existing public sector-centered record management into a non-governmental sector.

Comparison of Models for Stock Price Prediction Based on Keyword Search Volume According to the Social Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (인공지능의 사회적 수용도에 따른 키워드 검색량 기반 주가예측모형 비교연구)

  • Cho, Yujung;Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2021
  • Recently, investors' interest and the influence of stock-related information dissemination are being considered as significant factors that explain stock returns and volume. Besides, companies that develop, distribute, or utilize innovative new technologies such as artificial intelligence have a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict a company's future stock returns and volatility due to macro-environment and market uncertainty. Market uncertainty is recognized as an obstacle to the activation and spread of artificial intelligence technology, so research is needed to mitigate this. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that predicts the volatility of a company's stock price by using the internet search volume of artificial intelligence-related technology keywords as a measure of the interest of investors. To this end, for predicting the stock market, we using the VAR(Vector Auto Regression) and deep neural network LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). And the stock price prediction performance using keyword search volume is compared according to the technology's social acceptance stage. In addition, we also conduct the analysis of sub-technology of artificial intelligence technology to examine the change in the search volume of detailed technology keywords according to the technology acceptance stage and the effect of interest in specific technology on the stock market forecast. To this end, in this study, the words artificial intelligence, deep learning, machine learning were selected as keywords. Next, we investigated how many keywords each week appeared in online documents for five years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. The stock price and transaction volume data of KOSDAQ listed companies were also collected and used for analysis. As a result, we found that the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increased as the social acceptance of artificial intelligence technology increased. In particular, starting from AlphaGo Shock, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence itself and detailed technologies such as machine learning and deep learning appeared to increase. Also, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increases as the social acceptance stage progresses. It showed high accuracy, and it was confirmed that the acceptance stages showing the best prediction performance were different for each keyword. As a result of stock price prediction based on keyword search volume for each social acceptance stage of artificial intelligence technologies classified in this study, the awareness stage's prediction accuracy was found to be the highest. The prediction accuracy was different according to the keywords used in the stock price prediction model for each social acceptance stage. Therefore, when constructing a stock price prediction model using technology keywords, it is necessary to consider social acceptance of the technology and sub-technology classification. The results of this study provide the following implications. First, to predict the return on investment for companies based on innovative technology, it is most important to capture the recognition stage in which public interest rapidly increases in social acceptance of the technology. Second, the change in keyword search volume and the accuracy of the prediction model varies according to the social acceptance of technology should be considered in developing a Decision Support System for investment such as the big data-based Robo-advisor recently introduced by the financial sector.