• Title/Summary/Keyword: multivariate modeling

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A Longitudinal Study on the Influence of Learning Effort, Attitude, and Achievement Goal on Mathematics Academic Achievement : For elementary and secondary school students (학습노력, 태도 및 성취목표가 수학 학업성취도에 미치는 직·간접적인 영향에 대한 종단연구: 초·중학생을 대상으로)

  • Kim, YongSeok
    • Education of Primary School Mathematics
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2021
  • Factors influencing mathematics academic achievement are constantly changing and have direct and indirect effects on mathematics achievement, so longitudinal studies that can predict and analyze their growth are needed. This study uses longitudinal data on students from 2011 (5th grade of elementary school) to 2015 (2nd grade of middle school) of the Seoul Education Longitudinal Study, and divides them into groups with similar longitudinal changes in mathematics academic achievement. The direct and indirect effects of learning attitudes and achievement goals were examined. As a result of the study, it was found that learning effort and learning attitude had a direct effect on mathematics achievement in 1 group (2277 students, 67.7%), and learning attitude had a direct effect on mathematics achievement in 3 groups (958 students, 28.5%). And it was found that learning effort h ad an indirect effect. In addition, it was found that both learning attitudes, learning efforts, and achievement goals had no effect on the academic achievement of mathematics in the second group (127 students, 3.8%).

Status and Implications of Hydrogeochemical Characterization of Deep Groundwater for Deep Geological Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Wastes in Developed Countries (고준위 방사성 폐기물 지질처분을 위한 해외 선진국의 심부 지하수 환경 연구동향 분석 및 시사점 도출)

  • Jaehoon Choi;Soonyoung Yu;SunJu Park;Junghoon Park;Seong-Taek Yun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.737-760
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    • 2022
  • For the geological disposal of high-level radioactive wastes (HLW), an understanding of deep subsurface environment is essential through geological, hydrogeological, geochemical, and geotechnical investigations. Although South Korea plans the geological disposal of HLW, only a few studies have been conducted for characterizing the geochemistry of deep subsurface environment. To guide the hydrogeochemical research for selecting suitable repository sites, this study overviewed the status and trends in hydrogeochemical characterization of deep groundwater for the deep geological disposal of HLW in developed countries. As a result of examining the selection process of geological disposal sites in 8 countries including USA, Canada, Finland, Sweden, France, Japan, Germany, and Switzerland, the following geochemical parameters were needed for the geochemical characterization of deep subsurface environment: major and minor elements and isotopes (e.g., 34S and 18O of SO42-, 13C and 14C of DIC, 2H and 18O of water) of both groundwater and pore water (in aquitard), fracture-filling minerals, organic materials, colloids, and oxidation-reduction indicators (e.g., Eh, Fe2+/Fe3+, H2S/SO42-, NH4+/NO3-). A suitable repository was selected based on the integrated interpretation of these geochemical data from deep subsurface. In South Korea, hydrochemical types and evolutionary patterns of deep groundwater were identified using artificial neural networks (e.g., Self-Organizing Map), and the impact of shallow groundwater mixing was evaluated based on multivariate statistics (e.g., M3 modeling). The relationship between fracture-filling minerals and groundwater chemistry also has been investigated through a reaction-path modeling. However, these previous studies in South Korea had been conducted without some important geochemical data including isotopes, oxidationreduction indicators and DOC, mainly due to the lack of available data. Therefore, a detailed geochemical investigation is required over the country to collect these hydrochemical data to select a geological disposal site based on scientific evidence.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

DISEASE DIAGNOSED AND DESCRIBED BY NIRS

  • Tsenkova, Roumiana N.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1031-1031
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    • 2001
  • The mammary gland is made up of remarkably sensitive tissue, which has the capability of producing a large volume of secretion, milk, under normal or healthy conditions. When bacteria enter the gland and establish an infection (mastitis), inflammation is initiated accompanied by an influx of white cells from the blood stream, by altered secretory function, and changes in the volume and composition of secretion. Cell numbers in milk are closely associated with inflammation and udder health. These somatic cell counts (SCC) are accepted as the international standard measurement of milk quality in dairy and for mastitis diagnosis. NIR Spectra of unhomogenized composite milk samples from 14 cows (healthy and mastitic), 7days after parturition and during the next 30 days of lactation were measured. Different multivariate analysis techniques were used to diagnose the disease at very early stage and determine how the spectral properties of milk vary with its composition and animal health. PLS model for prediction of somatic cell count (SCC) based on NIR milk spectra was made. The best accuracy of determination for the 1100-2500nm range was found using smoothed absorbance data and 10 PLS factors. The standard error of prediction for independent validation set of samples was 0.382, correlation coefficient 0.854 and the variation coefficient 7.63%. It has been found that SCC determination by NIR milk spectra was indirect and based on the related changes in milk composition. From the spectral changes, we learned that when mastitis occurred, the most significant factors that simultaneously influenced milk spectra were alteration of milk proteins and changes in ionic concentration of milk. It was consistent with the results we obtained further when applied 2DCOS. Two-dimensional correlation analysis of NIR milk spectra was done to assess the changes in milk composition, which occur when somatic cell count (SCC) levels vary. The synchronous correlation map revealed that when SCC increases, protein levels increase while water and lactose levels decrease. Results from the analysis of the asynchronous plot indicated that changes in water and fat absorptions occur before other milk components. In addition, the technique was used to assess the changes in milk during a period when SCC levels do not vary appreciably. Results indicated that milk components are in equilibrium and no appreciable change in a given component was seen with respect to another. This was found in both healthy and mastitic animals. However, milk components were found to vary with SCC content regardless of the range considered. This important finding demonstrates that 2-D correlation analysis may be used to track even subtle changes in milk composition in individual cows. To find out the right threshold for SCC when used for mastitis diagnosis at cow level, classification of milk samples was performed using soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and different spectral data pretreatment. Two levels of SCC - 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ and 300 000 cells/$m\ell$, respectively, were set up and compared as thresholds to discriminate between healthy and mastitic cows. The best detection accuracy was found with 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ as threshold for mastitis and smoothed absorbance data: - 98% of the milk samples in the calibration set and 87% of the samples in the independent test set were correctly classified. When the spectral information was studied it was found that the successful mastitis diagnosis was based on reviling the spectral changes related to the corresponding changes in milk composition. NIRS combined with different ways of spectral data ruining can provide faster and nondestructive alternative to current methods for mastitis diagnosis and a new inside into disease understanding at molecular level.

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Developing and Applying the Questionnaire to Measure Science Core Competencies Based on the 2015 Revised National Science Curriculum (2015 개정 과학과 교육과정에 기초한 과학과 핵심역량 조사 문항의 개발 및 적용)

  • Ha, Minsu;Park, HyunJu;Kim, Yong-Jin;Kang, Nam-Hwa;Oh, Phil Seok;Kim, Mi-Jum;Min, Jae-Sik;Lee, Yoonhyeong;Han, Hyo-Jeong;Kim, Moogyeong;Ko, Sung-Woo;Son, Mi-Hyun
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.495-504
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to develop items to measure scientific core competency based on statements of scientific core competencies presented in the 2015 revised national science curriculum and to identify the validity and reliability of the newly developed items. Based on the explanations of scientific reasoning, scientific inquiry ability, scientific problem-solving ability, scientific communication ability, participation/lifelong learning in science presented in the 2015 revised national science curriculum, 25 items were developed by five science education experts. To explore the validity and reliability of the developed items, data were collected from 11,348 students in elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide. The content validity, substantive validity, the internal structure validity, and generalization validity proposed by Messick (1995) were examined by various statistical tests. The results of the MNSQ analysis showed that there were no nonconformity in the 25 items. The confirmatory factor analysis using the structural equation modeling revealed that the five-factor model was a suitable model. The differential item functioning analyses by gender and school level revealed that the nonconformity DIF value was found in only two out of 175 cases. The results of the multivariate analysis of variance by gender and school level showed significant differences of test scores between schools and genders, and the interaction effect was also significant. The assessment items of science core competency based on the 2015 revised national science curriculum are valid from a psychometric point of view and can be used in the science education field.