• 제목/요약/키워드: multinomial probit model

검색결과 12건 처리시간 0.018초

다변량 프로빗 모형을 이용한 가전제품 구매의 상관관계 분석 (Correlation among Ownership of Home Appliances Using Multivariate Probit Model)

  • 김창섭;신정우;이미숙;이종수
    • 마케팅과학연구
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2009
  • As the lifestyle of consumers changes and the need for various products increases, new products are being developed in the market. Each household owns various home appliances which are purchased through the choice of a decision maker. These appliances include not only large-sized products such as TV, refrigerator, and washing machine, but also small-sized products such as microwave oven and air cleaner. There exists latent correlation among possession of home appliances, even though they are purchased independently. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of demographic factors on the purchase and possession of each home appliances, and to derive some relationships among various appliances. To achieve this purpose, the present status on the possession of each home appliances are investigated through consumer survey data on the electric and energy product. And a multivariate probit(MVP) model is applied for the empirical analysis. From the estimation results, some appliances show a substitutive or complementary pattern as expected, while others which look apparently unrelated have correlation by co-incidence. This research has several advantages compared to previous literatures on home appliances. First, this research focuses on the various products which are purchased by each household, while previous researches such as Matsukawa and Ito(1998) and Yoon(2007) focus just on a particular product. Second, the methodology of this research can consider a choice process of each product and correlation among products simultaneously. Lastly, this research can analyze not only a substitutive or complementary relationship in the same category, but also the correlation among products in the different categories. As the data on the possession of home appliances in each household has a characteristic of multiple choice, not a single choice, a MVP model are used for the empirical analysis. A MVP model is derived from a random utility model, and has an advantage compared to a multinomial logit model in that correlation among error terms can be derive(Manchanda et al., 1999; Edwards and Allenby, 2003). It is assumed that the error term has a normal distribution with zero mean and variance-covariance matrix ${\Omega}$. Hence, the sign and value of correlation coefficients means the relationship between two alternatives(Manchanda et al., 1999). This research uses the data of 'TEMEP Household ICT/Energy Survey (THIES) 2008' which is conducted by Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program in Seoul National University. The empirical analysis of this research is accomplished in two steps. First, a MVP model with demographic variables is estimated to analyze the effect of the characteristics of household on the purchase of each home appliances. In this research, some variables such as education level, region, size of family, average income, type of house are considered. Second, a MVP model excluding demographic variables is estimated to analyze the correlation among each home appliances. According to the estimation results of variance-covariance matrix, each households tend to own some appliances such as washing machine-refrigerator-cleaner-microwave oven, and air conditioner-dish washer-washing machine and so on. On the other hand, several products such as analog braun tube TV-digital braun tube TV and desktop PC-portable PC show a substitutive pattern. Lastly, the correlation map of home appliances are derived using multi-dimensional scaling(MDS) method based on the result of variance-covariance matrix. This research can provide significant implications for the firm's marketing strategies such as bundling, pricing, display and so on. In addition, this research can provide significant information for the development of convergence products and related technologies. A convergence product can decrease its market uncertainty, if two products which consumers tend to purchase together are integrated into it. The results of this research are more meaningful because it is based on the possession status of each household through the survey data.

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농산물 꾸러미 속성별 소비자선호 분석 (An Analysis on Consumer Preference for Attributes of Agricultural Box Scheme)

  • 박재동;김태균;장우환;임청룡
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구에서는 농산물 꾸러미 속성별 소비자선호 분석을 통해 사업 활성화 방안을 제시하고자 하였다. 꾸러미의 속성을 구성함에 있어서 상품묶음 방식과 배송 방식 및 가격으로 구분하여 설정하고, 선택실험법에 의해 각 속성의 수준변화에 대한 한계지불의사금액을 추정하였다. 계량적 분석을 수행함에 있어서 보다 효율적인 모형을 선택하기 위하여 잔차항에 대한 가정이 서로 다른 조건부로짓 모형, 이분산 극한치 모형, 다항프로빗 모형, 혼합로짓 모형 등 네 모형을 추정하였으며, 그 결과 상품묶음 방식과 배송 방식 및 가격에 대한 추정계수 값이 모두 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 로그우도 값의 크기를 기준으로 볼 때 이분산 극한치 모형이 자료에 가장 적합하는 것으로 나타났다. 이분산 극한치 모형의 추정계수를 활용한 한계지불의사금액은 상품묶음 방식을 고정형에서 선택형으로 변경 할 경우 1회당 7,096.6원, 배송방식 중 직접배송에 대한 소비자의 한계지불의사금액은 1회당 3,497.5원, 콜드체인 배송에 대한 한계지불의사금액은 1회당 4,035.2원으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 정부의 로컬푸드 활성화를 위한 정책수립에 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.